061
FXUS64 KMAF 240326
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ALL WATCHES HAVE EXPIRED AND SEVERE THREAT IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND
IS MAINLY CONFINED TO MITCHELL...GLASSCOCK...REAGAN..AND TERRELL
COUNTIES. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FCST THERE.
HEAVY RAIN IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR NOW IN MITCHELL...GLASSCOCK...AND
REAGAN COUNTIES THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 214 AND TORNADO WATCH
213 EARLY AND WILL LET REMAINDER OF THE FAR E AND S CWFA THAT ARE STILL
IN THE WATCHES EXPIRE AT 10 PM. TSTMS ARE STILL ACROSS THE E PB
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW ACROSS PB MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
BOUNDARY. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 10 PM FOR EXPIRATION
WATCHES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 85 68 84 / 30 30 40 20
BIG SPRING TX 61 86 69 85 / 50 30 40 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 90 65 92 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 74 87 69 88 / 20 30 30 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 64 87 67 86 / 20 30 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 84 61 87 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 67 87 64 86 / 20 30 30 20
MARFA TX 57 81 57 85 / 20 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 85 69 84 / 30 30 40 20
ODESSA TX 70 84 69 85 / 30 30 40 20
WINK TX 70 86 69 93 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
918
FXUS64 KMAF 240156 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
856 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 214 AND TORNADO WATCH
213 EARLY AND WILL LET REMAINDER OF THE FAR E AND S CWFA THAT ARE STILL
IN THE WATCHES EXPIRE AT 10 PM. TSTMS ARE STILL ACROSS THE E PB
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW ACROSS PB MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
BOUNDARY. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 10 PM FOR EXPIRATION
WATCHES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 85 68 84 / 30 30 40 20
BIG SPRING TX 69 86 69 85 / 50 30 40 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 90 65 92 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 74 87 69 88 / 20 30 30 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 87 67 86 / 20 30 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 84 61 87 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 67 87 64 86 / 20 30 30 20
MARFA TX 57 81 57 85 / 20 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 85 69 84 / 30 30 40 20
ODESSA TX 70 84 69 85 / 30 30 40 20
WINK TX 71 86 69 93 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
727
FXUS64 KMAF 232349
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
455
FXUS64 KMAF 231922
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 85 68 84 / 50 30 40 20
BIG SPRING TX 69 86 69 85 / 50 30 40 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 90 65 92 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 74 87 69 88 / 30 30 30 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 87 67 86 / 50 30 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 84 61 87 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 67 87 64 86 / 40 30 30 20
MARFA TX 57 81 57 85 / 50 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 85 69 84 / 40 30 40 20
ODESSA TX 70 84 69 85 / 40 30 40 20
WINK TX 71 86 69 93 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/80
486
FXUS64 KMAF 231823
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
123 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENTERING THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS DO NOT FORECAST A WIND SHIFT
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...THE BOUNDARY COULD POTENTIALLY GET AS FAR
WEST AS MAF AND HOB BY 00Z...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE
EAST INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY
THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-13KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AROUND
18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION OUT
WEST FIRST...AND THEN THE NOCTURNAL MCS OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING
EASTERN TERMINALS. BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE
EASTERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CIGS
SHOULD STAY ABV 3KFT AGL UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05
764
FXUS64 KMAF 231014
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-13KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AROUND
18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION OUT
WEST FIRST...AND THEN THE NOCTURNAL MCS OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING
EASTERN TERMINALS. BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE
EASTERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CIGS
SHOULD STAY ABV 3KFT AGL UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
855
FXUS64 KMAF 230958
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 68 84 65 / 20 40 30 40
BIG SPRING TX 97 69 86 67 / 20 40 30 40
CARLSBAD NM 99 69 90 63 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 97 72 86 68 / 10 20 30 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 97 69 85 67 / 20 30 30 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 90 62 84 61 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 93 65 83 62 / 20 30 30 30
MARFA TX 91 59 81 57 / 20 30 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 96 69 83 66 / 20 40 30 40
ODESSA TX 96 70 84 67 / 20 40 30 40
WINK TX 98 71 88 69 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/29
789
FXUS64 KMAF 230541
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NOCTURNAL LLJ IS IN FULL GEAR TONIGHT...W/KMAF SHOWING 50KTS OUT
OF THE SSE...ABOUT 10KTS STRONGER THAN MODELS ANTICIPATED 24 HRS
AGO. THIS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE STRATUS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-11KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OMTNS AROUND 18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY CONVECTION
ATTM...PREFERRING TO LOOK AT THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHEN IT COMES
IN...AND MAKING THE FINAL CALL FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR/LIFR
CIGS WILL ALSO COME INTO THE PICTURE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.
THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
936
FXUS64 KMAF 222342
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES. LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALSO BUT HAVEN/T SEEN ANY INDICATIONS
OF LOW CLOUDS. SATELLITE DOES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE
W AND BKN200-250 WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
INCREASE AFTER 18Z THUR. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED LEAVE PROB30 GROUPS OUT
BUT THEY WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO APPEAR IN TAFS IN THE 06Z AND 12Z
ISSUANCES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.
THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
297
FXUS64 KMAF 220943
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN TERMINALS...W/BASES 8-9
KFT AGL. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES...W/A 40+KT LLJ
MAINTAINING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
722
FXUS64 KMAF 220934
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 94 71 94 68 / 0 0 20 30
BIG SPRING TX 95 71 95 69 / 0 0 20 30
CARLSBAD NM 97 63 99 67 / 0 0 20 20
DRYDEN TX 95 74 95 73 / 0 0 10 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 96 72 96 69 / 0 0 20 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 92 67 89 63 / 0 0 20 20
HOBBS NM 92 65 94 65 / 0 0 20 20
MARFA TX 91 54 87 59 / 0 0 20 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 95 72 94 69 / 0 0 20 30
ODESSA TX 95 73 94 70 / 0 0 20 30
WINK TX 99 71 99 72 / 0 0 20 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/29
483
FXUS64 KMAF 220507
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WORRIES NEXT 24 HOURS...AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING AS RETURN FLOW
REESTABLISHES. 40+KT LLJ WILL KEEP WINDS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT WITH STRONG HEATING THURSDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER...BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UPPER LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN CLOUDS...MOISTURE...
AND EXPECTED OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY`S STORMS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE LATE MAY NORMS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
198
FXUS64 KMAF 212318
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT VERY NEAR FST BUT THE PUSH IS WEAKENING. AS SUCH WINDS
WILL SLOWLY TURN E-SE OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS.
NAM12 DOES SUGGEST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS WED AM FST/MAF BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT INCLUDE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. S WINDS WED AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT WITH STRONG HEATING THURSDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER...BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UPPER LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN CLOUDS...MOISTURE...
AND EXPECTED OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY`S STORMS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE LATE MAY NORMS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
121
FXUS64 KMAF 212100
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT WITH STRONG HEATING THURSDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER...BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UPPER LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN CLOUDS...MOISTURE...
AND EXPECTED OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY`S STORMS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE LATE MAY NORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 59 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 20
BIG SPRING TX 59 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 60 97 65 98 / 0 0 0 20
DRYDEN TX 69 95 74 95 / 0 10 0 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 65 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 20
HOBBS NM 57 92 65 96 / 0 0 0 20
MARFA TX 46 88 54 89 / 0 0 0 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 61 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 20
ODESSA TX 62 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 20
WINK TX 61 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/70
086
FXUS64 KMAF 211738
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. MORNING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED AS
FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 10 AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT ALL
TERMINAL EXCEPT FOR CNM. WIND SPEEDS 10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES. COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.
FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
373
FXUS64 KMAF 211131
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN CONTINUING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES. COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.
FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
180
FXUS64 KMAF 211004
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES. COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.
FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 83 60 96 70 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 83 60 95 70 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 87 61 97 66 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 97 70 95 75 / 10 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 90 66 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 80 64 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 81 58 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 83 45 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 85 62 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 85 63 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 91 62 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/44
814
FXUS64 KMAF 210535
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY BEFORE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
948
FXUS64 KMAF 210310
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1010 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LITTLE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ARE MOVING OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, WHICH IS PREVENTING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FROM DECREASING. DESPITE THESE STRONGER WINDS,
DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE SPEEDS TO DROP OFF THROUGH 21/05Z OR
21/06Z. IN ADDITION, RH/S WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21/06Z, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. EVEN THOUGH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS, WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME DUE TO
THE ABOVE REASONS. WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED OFF, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21/02Z...BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KHOB AND KMAF THE
LONGEST WITH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DECREASING BEFORE 21/18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A
RESULTANT CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/70
060
FXUS64 KMAF 202252
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21/02Z...BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KHOB AND KMAF THE
LONGEST WITH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DECREASING BEFORE 21/18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A
RESULTANT CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27/70
312
FXUS64 KMAF 202036
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A RESULTANT
CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27/70
686
FXUS64 KMAF 201746
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
BEEN SPORADIC THIS MORNING AS THE DRYLINE MEANDERS AROUND HOWEVER
IT SHOULD CONTINUE A CONSTANT PUSH EASTWARD FROM NOW ON AND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
NEAR SUNSET AND REMAIN AOB 10KT OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27
253
FXUS64 KMAF 201127
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MSTR HAS RETURNED A LITTLE FARTHER W THAN THOUGHT AND
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW LOW CLOUDS ABOUT 60NM S OF MAF. STILL NOT
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MAF OR FST AREAS. WINDS OF
15-20KTS STILL LOOK LIKELY TODAY BY 15Z-18Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO AREA EARLY TUE AM AROUND 08Z-10Z BUT LOOKS DRY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
293
FXUS64 KMAF 200846
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 62 89 62 / 0 10 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 97 63 88 64 / 10 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 97 60 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 100 69 97 70 / 10 10 0 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 64 94 65 / 0 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 88 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 94 60 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 87 47 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 98 63 90 64 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 98 64 88 63 / 10 10 0 0
WINK TX 101 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
49/72
191
FXUS64 KMAF 200447
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AT 15-18KTS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
729
FXUS64 KMAF 200117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
817 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FOR EXPIRATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT IN
GAPS AND PASSES IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WHERE 20 MPH OR GREATER
WINDS WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER. SINCE WINDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
WILL NOT BE OVER 20 MPH SUSTAINED FOR ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
TIME, AND RH/S WILL INCREASE IN THE GUADALUPES, WILL ALLOW THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY REMAINS INTACT SINCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED. 67
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
415
FXUS64 KMAF 192255
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ONLY TO
INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE FOR YESTERDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS ARE
PREVAILING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER AS THE DRYLINE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK INTO ALL EXCEPT THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR GDP FOR MONDAY FROM
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS...700 MB WINDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THESE SOURCES INDICATE WEAKER WINDS AT 700 MB AND NOT MUCH MIXING
ABOVE THAT LEVEL. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD
IN WIND SPEEDS FOR GDP ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH A NE WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. STARTING THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MORNING
LOWS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
70/80
252
FXUS64 KMAF 191931
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE FOR YESTERDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS ARE
PREVAILING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER AS THE DRYLINE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK INTO ALL EXCEPT THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR GDP FOR MONDAY FROM
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS...700 MB WINDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THESE SOURCES INDICATE WEAKER WINDS AT 700 MB AND NOT MUCH MIXING
ABOVE THAT LEVEL. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD
IN WIND SPEEDS FOR GDP ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH A NE WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. STARTING THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MORNING
LOWS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
70/80
047
FXUS64 KMAF 191741
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 19/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CAVU CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 20/18Z.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS (WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS) THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
70
184
FXUS64 KMAF 191117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
561
FXUS64 KMAF 190820
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 67 95 61 / 0 10 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 98 69 97 63 / 0 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 96 66 96 61 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 102 72 101 70 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 70 98 66 / 0 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 88 65 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 94 65 94 59 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA TX 88 50 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 98 68 97 63 / 0 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 97 69 96 64 / 0 0 10 10
WINK TX 100 66 100 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
49/72
891
FXUS64 KMAF 190532
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE THRU THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE
AROUND 15Z-17Z WITH TROF E. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...
ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...
LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND
UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
825
FXUS64 KMAF 182246
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DIMINISH
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY
BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND
NEAR RECORD HEAT.
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAR EASTWARD THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KMAF SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THE DRYLINE QUICKLY MOVED
EAST OF MIDLAND. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TTU MESONET
SHOW THAT THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED TO NEAR A FLUVANNA TO ST. LAWRENCE
LINE AT PRESENT TIME. PRIMARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
MIX FARTHER TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS KEPT THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FROM JUST EAST OF MIDLAND
TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FARTHER EAST. I WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT. A 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA
AND AREAS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA HAVE FORECAST 700 MB
TEMPS OF 13-14C AT 00Z THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
OVERCOME A CAP LIKE THAT...PROBABLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TIME FOR DRIER AIR MIX FARTHER EASTWARD....WHICH
OF COURSE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR AREA AND CERTAINLY DIMINISH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WHILE THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE OVER SCURRY COUNTY
PRESENTLY...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT YET SEEN VIA RADAR OR SATELLITE.
FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW ORDER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO REACH STRONG LEVELS...AND WILL PLACE THAT WORDING IN TODAY`S
GRAPHIC.
WE START TO SEE SOME INTERESTING CHANCES BY MID WEEK. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALVIN COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT POP GRIDS
FORECAST AND RE-EVALUATE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 95 60 95 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 96 61 97 / 10 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 65 95 62 96 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 68 100 67 101 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 97 65 98 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 93 59 93 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 50 87 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 95 62 97 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA TX 66 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 101 61 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
80/03
873
FXUS64 KMAF 181947
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND
NEAR RECORD HEAT.
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAR EASTWARD THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KMAF SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THE DRYLINE QUICKLY MOVED
EAST OF MIDLAND. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TTU MESONET
SHOW THAT THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED TO NEAR A FLUVANNA TO ST. LAWRENCE
LINE AT PRESENT TIME. PRIMARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
MIX FARTHER TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS KEPT THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FROM JUST EAST OF MIDLAND
TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FARTHER EAST. I WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT. A 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA
AND AREAS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA HAVE FORECAST 700 MB
TEMPS OF 13-14C AT 00Z THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
OVERCOME A CAP LIKE THAT...PROBABLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TIME FOR DRIER AIR MIX FARTHER EASTWARD....WHICH
OF COURSE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR AREA AND CERTAINLY DIMINISH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WHILE THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE OVER SCURRY COUNTY
PRESENTLY...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT YET SEEN VIA RADAR OR SATELLITE.
FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW ORDER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO REACH STRONG LEVELS...AND WILL PLACE THAT WORDING IN TODAY`S
GRAPHIC.
WE START TO SEE SOME INTERESTING CHANCES BY MID WEEK. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALVIN COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT POP GRIDS
FORECAST AND RE-EVALUATE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 95 60 95 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 96 61 97 / 10 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 65 95 62 96 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 68 100 67 101 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 97 65 98 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 93 59 93 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 50 87 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 95 62 97 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA TX 66 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 101 61 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
80/03
113
FXUS64 KMAF 181713
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN
STRENGTH THIS EVENING. MOSTLY WEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED TODAY BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MAF HIT A DAILY RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT 103 DEGREES WITH A 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIR. AS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A WARM PATTERN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL OFF THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY... MAY TIE A RECORD HIGH AT MAF AGAIN TODAY... BUT SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MID 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR EAST TODAY AS COULD BE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC STORM ALVIN MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER SEVERAL DAYS... WILL START WITH INTRODUCING
LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO FROM THERE.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWFA...SE
NM...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND NRN PB. 25KT WINDS AT AROUND 5KFT WILL
COME OUT ACROSS THE DESCRIBED AREA AND WITH THE BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS SE NM/NRN PB SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND 20-30 MPH MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM AND UNTIL AROUND 8
PM...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WHILE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS SUPPORT DRY TO VERY DRY
FUELS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN A DRY/UNSTABLE STATE AS SEEN BY
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND HAINES INDICES OF 5 TO 6. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BRIEF RF WX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA
ESPECIALLY IF MSLP GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER FARTHER S.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
99
442
FXUS64 KMAF 181123
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
S WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS HAVE PERSISTED AT FST/MAF WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 5KTS AT HOB/INK/PEQ/CNM. WINDS WILL TURN W-SW BY 17Z AT MOST
SITES AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS BY 20Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED AROUND 00Z WITH 15-20KTS AT CNM/HOB/MAF. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED TODAY BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MAF HIT A DAILY RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT 103 DEGREES WITH A 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIR. AS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A WARM PATTERN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL OFF THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY... MAY TIE A RECORD HIGH AT MAF AGAIN TODAY... BUT SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MID 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR EAST TODAY AS COULD BE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC STORM ALVIN MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER SEVERAL DAYS... WILL START WITH INTRODUCING
LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO FROM THERE.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWFA...SE
NM...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND NRN PB. 25KT WINDS AT AROUND 5KFT WILL
COME OUT ACROSS THE DESCRIBED AREA AND WITH THE BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS SE NM/NRN PB SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND 20-30 MPH MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM AND UNTIL AROUND 8
PM...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WHILE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS SUPPORT DRY TO VERY DRY
FUELS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN A DRY/UNSTABLE STATE AS SEEN BY
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND HAINES INDICES OF 5 TO 6. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BRIEF RF WX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA
ESPECIALLY IF MSLP GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER FARTHER S.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
497
FXUS64 KMAF 180859
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED TODAY BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MAF HIT A DAILY RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT 103 DEGREES WITH A 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIR. AS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A WARM PATTERN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL OFF THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY... MAY TIE A RECORD HIGH AT MAF AGAIN TODAY... BUT SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MID 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR EAST TODAY AS COULD BE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC STORM ALVIN MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER SEVERAL DAYS... WILL START WITH INTRODUCING
LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO FROM THERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWFA...SE
NM...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND NRN PB. 25KT WINDS AT AROUND 5KFT WILL
COME OUT ACROSS THE DESCRIBED AREA AND WITH THE BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS SE NM/NRN PB SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND 20-30 MPH MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM AND UNTIL AROUND 8
PM...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WHILE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS SUPPORT DRY TO VERY DRY
FUELS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN A DRY/UNSTABLE STATE AS SEEN BY
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND HAINES INDICES OF 5 TO 6. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BRIEF RF WX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA
ESPECIALLY IF MSLP GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER FARTHER S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 100 62 96 60 / 10 0 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 101 66 97 63 / 10 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 98 64 93 61 / 10 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 99 67 98 66 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 100 67 97 64 / 0 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 89 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 98 60 93 58 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 88 48 87 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 101 64 96 61 / 10 0 0 10
ODESSA TX 101 64 95 61 / 10 0 0 0
WINK TX 102 62 98 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
49/72
795
FXUS64 KMAF 180530
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING THRU
12Z. SW-W WINDS BY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15-20KTS AS SFC PRESSURE
FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...
BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...
LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
071
FXUS64 KMAF 172247
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH BASED FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY BY MID
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU THE WRN
CONUS...AMPLIFYING A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS/SE NM AND RESULTING IN
ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS. KMAF WAS 99F AT 18Z.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH...AND TEMPS DROP INTO ONLY THE UPPER
90S SATURDAY. INCREASING SW FLOW W/THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP A
DRYLINE OVER THE EXTREME ERN EDGE OF THE FA
SATURDAY...W/SINGLE-DIGIT RH/S TO THE WEST RESULTING IN CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. TODAY/S MODELS
AREN/T QUITE AS STRONG ON WINDS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AS 24 HRS
AGO...BUT STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS NEVERTHELESS. CURRENT
FIRE WX WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE...AND WE/LL LET THE MORNING SHIFT
MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON WHERE TO ISSUE THE RFW.
OTHERWISE...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FIRST...AND
SWING THRU THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FIRE WX THREAT
OVER THE NW ZONES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM REASSERTING ITSELF...AND TEMPERATURES AT BAY. IN
FACT...W/THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH...MODELS ATTEMPT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE NE ZONES TUESDAY...BUT W/LITTLE EFFECT.
BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TO TREND TEMPS A
LITTLE COOLER INTO THE EXTENDED...AS MODEL THICKNESSES HAVE DECREASED OVER
WHAT THEY WERE 24 HRS AGO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TREND THE THERMAL
RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST EACH DAY...TO ROUGHLY OVER KELP BY
MIDWEEK. THUS...A REPRIEVE ON THE WARMER TEMPS FOR NOW. WE/LL
BEGIN TRENDING DOWN...BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE MOS NUMBERS JUST YET.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK SCANT. MODELS BEGIN REBUILDING THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...W/THE LATEST
ECMWF DEVELOPING CONVECTION EACH DAY IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING
THURSDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE GRIDS DRY...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 66 98 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 73 98 60 97 / 0 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 67 94 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 99 67 98 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 97 61 96 / 0 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 61 95 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 53 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 97 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 72 98 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 100 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
72/44
471
FXUS64 KMAF 171930
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU THE WRN
CONUS...AMPLIFYING A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS/SE NM AND RESULTING IN
ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS. KMAF WAS 99F AT 18Z.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH...AND TEMPS DROP INTO ONLY THE UPPER
90S SATURDAY. INCREASING SW FLOW W/THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP A
DRYLINE OVER THE EXTREME ERN EDGE OF THE FA
SATURDAY...W/SINGLE-DIGIT RH/S TO THE WEST RESULTING IN CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. TODAY/S MODELS
AREN/T QUITE AS STRONG ON WINDS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AS 24 HRS
AGO...BUT STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS NEVERTHELESS. CURRENT
FIRE WX WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE...AND WE/LL LET THE MORNING SHIFT
MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON WHERE TO ISSUE THE RFW.
OTHERWISE...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FIRST...AND
SWING THRU THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FIRE WX THREAT
OVER THE NW ZONES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM REASSERTING ITSELF...AND TEMPERATURES AT BAY. IN
FACT...W/THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH...MODELS ATTEMPT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE NE ZONES TUESDAY...BUT W/LITTLE EFFECT.
BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TO TREND TEMPS A
LITTLE COOLER INTO THE EXTENDED...AS MODEL THICKNESSES HAVE DECREASED OVER
WHAT THEY WERE 24 HRS AGO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TREND THE THERMAL
RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST EACH DAY...TO ROUGHLY OVER KELP BY
MIDWEEK. THUS...A REPRIEVE ON THE WARMER TEMPS FOR NOW. WE/LL
BEGIN TRENDING DOWN...BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE MOS NUMBERS JUST YET.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK SCANT. MODELS BEGIN REBUILDING THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...W/THE LATEST
ECMWF DEVELOPING CONVECTION EACH DAY IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING
THURSDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE GRIDS DRY...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 66 98 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 73 98 60 97 / 0 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 67 94 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 99 67 98 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 97 61 96 / 0 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 61 95 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 53 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 97 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 72 98 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 100 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
72/44
217
FXUS64 KMAF 171729
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SW AT OR UNDER 12 KTS...BUT
WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SW/W TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST CAN BE SUMMED UP IN A COUPLE WORDS: HOT AND DRY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS INCH UP OVER 30 C.
TODAY`S RECORD HIGH AT MIDLAND INTL OF 101 SET BACK IN 2001
SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX
WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SE NM...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. IT NOW
APPEARS ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING
WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A S/W AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OFFERS SOME BRIEF RELIEF TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 90S AND 100S. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME HOPE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
13
386
FXUS64 KMAF 171116
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED BUT WINDS WILL TURN SW-W TO S-SE LATER TODAY WITH
AN INCREASE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST CAN BE SUMMED UP IN A COUPLE WORDS: HOT AND DRY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS INCH UP OVER 30 C.
TODAY`S RECORD HIGH AT MIDLAND INTL OF 101 SET BACK IN 2001
SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX
WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SE NM...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. IT NOW
APPEARS ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING
WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A S/W AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OFFERS SOME BRIEF RELIEF TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 90S AND 100S. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME HOPE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
003
FXUS64 KMAF 170926
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST CAN BE SUMMED UP IN A COUPLE WORDS: HOT AND DRY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS INCH UP OVER 30 C.
TODAY`S RECORD HIGH AT MIDLAND INTL OF 101 SET BACK IN 2001
SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX
WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SE NM...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. IT NOW
APPEARS ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING
WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A S/W AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OFFERS SOME BRIEF RELIEF TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 90S AND 100S. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME HOPE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 101 68 98 62 / 0 0 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 103 72 99 64 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 102 63 97 58 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 105 71 100 69 / 0 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 102 68 98 65 / 0 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 93 64 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 98 62 94 57 / 0 10 10 10
MARFA TX 91 51 87 48 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 102 70 99 64 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA TX 101 71 98 66 / 0 0 10 10
WINK TX 103 65 99 60 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
49/29
534
FXUS64 KMAF 170519
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS
MOSTLY BELOW 12KTS WITH A LOOSE MSLP GRADIENT. LIGHT W-SW WINDS
BECOMING SE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
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