Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 140518

1218 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

See aviation discussion below.


Mainly MVFR ceilings expected overnight through Sunday morning at
most terminals. Have a tempo group for MVFR and or IFR conditions
near and or after 12z Sunday for light rain and fog due to an
upper level disturbance moving northward from Mexico. By Sunday
afternoon expecting VFR ceilings to prevail with tempo MVFR
ceilings in light rain at most terminals.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/


The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.


MVFR ceilings are breaking up at many of the TAF sites early this
evening.  Think most, if not all, TAF sites could lift to VFR for a
good part of the evening.  However, expect the low deck to redevelop
around and after 14/06Z, then lower to IFR after 14/09Z.  Light rain
may become more widespread late tonight, but for now will leave VFR
visibility at all TAF sites.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

The general pattern of a mid level ridge axis to the n (SE mid level
flow) remains favorable for deeper moisture to hold in place and
minor shrtwv trof/s to track across the area from se-s to nw-n into
Monday. In the short-term low level WAA around 85h will maintain
weak lift resulting -SHRA this PM and areas of fog tonight. Models
are in good agreement with shrtwv trof tracking from Lower Trans
Pecos tonight and into the PB Sunday PM resulting -SHRA. Will opt
to increase PoPs into the low end chance category across the Lower
Trans Pecos/PB, which in turn will keep temps a little cooler than
currently forecast Sunday. By Monday the mid level flow starts to
transition into what will eventually be NW flow, but on Monday
there will be a minor shrtwv trof in the weak wly mid level flow.
As such slight chance PoPs are still warranted. 85h temps will
have warmed back to around the L20C degree range and surface temps
will climb back into L80s, especially outside of -SHRA. A weak
cold front will try to move into the PB/SE NM Tue AM with some
evidence of shrtwv trof/s within the mid level flow. The best
chance for precip will be along/n of front Tue across nrn CWFA. This
is already accounted for in forecast and no sig change is needed,
but will cool temps a little across the n due to the front. NW mid
level flow will advect drier mid level air swd Wed, but low level
mstr holds. For now isold/slight chance PoPs across s-sw areas
will suffice. Mid level ridging looks for prominent Thursday-
Saturday so warmer/drier. Will continue to watch ECMWF which has a
deepening trof Friday/Saturday which would change current


ANDREWS TX                 54  72  61  83  /  20  30  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  76  64  84  /  20  30  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                53  78  61  85  /  20  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  62  77  69  87  /  40  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  77  63  85  /  40  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  72  55  79  /  20  10  10  30
HOBBS NM                   54  73  58  81  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   50  72  54  79  /  30  20  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  74  63  85  /  20  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  54  74  63  85  /  30  30  10  10
WINK TX                    55  76  64  89  /  30  20  10  10





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