Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

FXUS64 KMAF 192329

629 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be the thunderstorm
activity affecting terminals through this evening. Currently have
strong storms over the Davis Mountains with gusty winds and hail
likely. Expect this storm to affect FST and possibly PEQ by 00-01Z.
Winds could gust up to 45kt at FST and have included mention of this
in a TEMPO. In addition, have TSRA at CNM, HOB and INK by 20/01Z
followed by MAF at 20/03Z. Will amend with any changes to current
thinking and/or radar trends. Brief low vsbys/cigs will be possible
with any storms that affect terminals. Otherwise, could see MVFR
cigs develop at MAF and possibly HOB early Sunday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

An initial round of showers and thunderstorms has moved into
southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin this
afternoon. Models remain consistent in indicating daytime heating
causing destabilization in the mountains later this afternoon
and another round of convection to develop and move northeast
overnight. Most areas not currently receiving rain will have to
hope this pans out as this will be the best chance for widespread

Drier air begins moving in from the west tomorrow setting up a
weak dryline across the central CWA. Though weak, there should be
enough low level convergence and upper support from the passing
trough to initiate more convection. CAPE values of 1-1.5 KJ/KG
and 0-6km shear values of 30-50kts indicate there will be some
severe potential hence a slight risk from SPC in our eastern
counties. 0-2km shear values are not impressive so the severe
threat will be mainly large hail and strong winds.

A weak cold front will drop into the area behind the departing
upper trough but will bring very little if any cooling. A zonal
upper pattern will bring a series of trough-ridge couplets, thus a
weak upper ridge Tuesday warms temps with another trough
arriving on Wednesday. This trough will be farther north than the
current one giving a stronger westerly flow and more surface dry
air to the western CWA. Upper lift will not be as favorable
but this may be compensated with a sharper dryline and better low
level convergence as several models are showing some storms
developing Wednesday afternoon. Have added a slight chance for
precip to the forecast but conditions are not at all optimal so
will not get hopes up for rain with this system. Another ridge
late in the week brings a return of warmer and drier conditions.






27 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.