Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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203
FXUS64 KMAF 240930
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
430 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue for at least the next several hours.  Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop briefly invof KMAF this morning
before scattering out.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
Convective temps should be achieved before noon, spawning a
widespread cu field w/bases 2.1-3 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.

Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.

The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  92  68 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       88  66  86  65 /  30  20  50  50
Dryden                         92  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  89  68  90  68 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 81  63  78  61 /  40  20  50  40
Hobbs                          84  64  84  64 /  50  40  40  40
Marfa                          81  60  80  61 /  50  40  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           89  70  91  68 /  40  40  20  20
Odessa                         88  69  89  69 /  50  50  20  20
Wink                           89  69  91  69 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
766
FXUS64 KMAF 240823
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.

Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.

The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  92  68 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       88  66  86  65 /  30  20  50  50
Dryden                         92  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  89  68  90  68 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 81  63  78  61 /  40  20  50  40
Hobbs                          84  64  84  64 /  50  40  40  40
Marfa                          81  60  80  61 /  50  40  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           89  70  91  68 /  40  40  20  20
Odessa                         88  69  89  69 /  50  50  20  20
Wink                           89  69  91  69 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29
082
FXUS64 KMAF 240536
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue off and on throughout the night. Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop invof KMAF around sunrise.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Convective temps should be
achieved around noon, spawning a widespread cu field w/bases 2.8-7
kft agl.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream
across the area and early this morning was collocated with
showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting
to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture
axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing
w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy
embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv
energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more
definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields.
Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative
of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary
and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge
the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy
rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells
would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with
precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans
Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in
the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain
Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what
happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood
may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a
pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This
will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter
PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably
to back above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  93  68 /  20  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       90  66  86  65 /  30  20  50  50
Dryden                         93  71  94  72 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  90  67  91  68 /  50  40  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 83  62  78  61 /  30  10  50  50
Hobbs                          84  64  84  64 /  30  40  40  40
Marfa                          83  59  81  61 /  50  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           89  69  91  68 /  30  40  20  10
Odessa                         88  68  90  68 /  40  40  20  20
Wink                           90  69  92  69 /  60  40  30  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
516
FXUS64 KMAF 232327
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the threat for TS
activity to continue the next 6 hours. Currently have thunderstorms
training over CNM and just north of HOB terminals. This activity
looks to continue and potentially shift to the south/southeast
slightly over the next several hours, resulting in periods of low
vis due to heavy rainfall as well as gusty/erratic winds. Storms
could continue beyond midnight but confidence is too low attm to
include mention of TS beyond 04Z for now. Will continue to monitor
radar trends and amend if needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail with thunderstorm chances possibly returning Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream
across the area and early this morning was collocated with
showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting
to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture
axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing
w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy
embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv
energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more
definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields.
Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative
of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary
and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge
the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy
rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells
would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with
precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans
Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in
the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain
Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what
happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood
may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a
pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This
will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter
PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably
to back above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  91  70  93 /  30  20  40  10
Carlsbad                       66  90  66  86 /  30  30  20  50
Dryden                         71  93  71  94 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  90  67  91 /  30  50  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  83  62  78 /  40  30  10  50
Hobbs                          67  84  64  84 /  40  30  40  40
Marfa                          60  83  59  81 /  40  50  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           72  89  69  91 /  40  30  40  20
Odessa                         71  88  68  90 /  40  40  40  20
Wink                           70  90  69  92 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/70
089
FXUS64 KMAF 231849
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream
across the area and early this morning was collocated with
showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting
to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture
axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing
w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy
embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv
energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more
definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields.
Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative
of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary
and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge
the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy
rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells
would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with
precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans
Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in
the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain
Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what
happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood
may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a
pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This
will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter
PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably
to back above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  91  70  93 /  30  20  40  10
Carlsbad                       66  90  66  86 /  30  30  20  50
Dryden                         71  93  71  94 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  90  67  91 /  30  50  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  83  62  78 /  40  30  10  50
Hobbs                          67  84  64  84 /  40  30  40  40
Marfa                          60  83  59  81 /  40  50  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           72  89  69  91 /  40  30  40  20
Odessa                         71  88  68  90 /  40  40  40  20
Wink                           70  90  69  92 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
432
FXUS64 KMAF 231631
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1131 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals this afternoon and
tonight.  Showers are expected to develop and affect most sites this
afternoon/evening.  There could be some reduction in visibility, but
will hold off addressing this until it becomes more clear where the
heavier showers will occur.  Also, TSRA could affect KCNM this
afternoon, but will likely add TSRA after storms develop over the
higher terrain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

WV imagery shows the upper ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast
states, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow
aloft.  This pattern will more or less remain into the extended. To
the north, an upper low is ejecting thru Saskatchewan, and digging a
trough thru the SW CONUS.  This will gin up leeside troughing on the
Front Range, w/the sfc trough forecast to drift south into TX/OK
over the next couple of days.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge moved north
into the FA yesterday, and is forecast to orient SW-NE and
strengthen over the next few days roughly in line w/the
aforementioned sfc trough.  Thus, a good chance of convection will
remain, especially in the short term.  Forecast soundings continue
to hint at mainly a heavy rain threat, w/ensembles indicating PWATs
over 1.5 std devs abv normal, and forecast to remain 1" or more for
the next few days.  Mid-lvl LRs and bulk shear look too weak to
mention any svr activity attm, but we`ll mention that a few
cells could become strong in the HWO.

For temps, w/the ridge off to the east, and increased moisture, H85
temps don`t move much over the next week, keeping things right
around normal as far as highs go, and abv-normal lows due to higher
dewpoints.  This is in pretty good agreement w/MOS, and we see
no reason to deviate too much from it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  72  91  71 /  30  40  30  40
Carlsbad                       90  69  86  67 /  40  40  30  20
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  20  10  20  30
Fort Stockton                  90  70  89  68 /  40  30  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 80  64  79  63 /  50  50  40  20
Hobbs                          88  67  84  65 /  40  40  40  40
Marfa                          82  64  80  62 /  50  40  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           90  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Odessa                         89  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Wink                           91  71  88  69 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
066
FXUS64 KMAF 231109
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
High clouds have hindered low cloud development this morning so
have removed from TAFs. A band of light rain continues across the
Trans Pecos and should not cause any issues at the terminals this
morning. Scattered storms are expected this afternoon with brief
reductions in visibility and gusty winds possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast
states, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow
aloft.  This pattern will more or less remain into the extended. To
the north, an upper low is ejecting thru Saskatchewan, and digging a
trough thru the SW CONUS.  This will gin up leeside troughing on the
Front Range, w/the sfc trough forecast to drift south into TX/OK
over the next couple of days.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge moved north
into the FA yesterday, and is forecast to orient SW-NE and
strengthen over the next few days roughly in line w/the
aforementioned sfc trough.  Thus, a good chance of convection will
remain, especially in the short term.  Forecast soundings continue
to hint at mainly a heavy rain threat, w/ensembles indicating PWATs
over 1.5 std devs abv normal, and forecast to remain 1" or more for
the next few days.  Mid-lvl LRs and bulk shear look too weak to
mention any svr activity attm, but we`ll mention that a few
cells could become strong in the HWO.

For temps, w/the ridge off to the east, and increased moisture, H85
temps don`t move much over the next week, keeping things right
around normal as far as highs go, and abv-normal lows due to higher
dewpoints.  This is in pretty good agreement w/MOS, and we see
no reason to deviate too much from it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  72  91  71 /  30  40  30  40
Carlsbad                       90  69  86  67 /  40  40  30  20
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  20  10  20  30
Fort Stockton                  90  70  89  68 /  40  30  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 80  64  79  63 /  50  50  40  20
Hobbs                          88  67  84  65 /  40  40  40  40
Marfa                          82  64  80  62 /  50  40  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           90  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Odessa                         89  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Wink                           91  71  88  69 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/
612
FXUS64 KMAF 230845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast
states, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow
aloft.  This pattern will more or less remain into the extended. To
the north, an upper low is ejecting thru Saskatchewan, and digging a
trough thru the SW CONUS.  This will gin up leeside troughing on the
Front Range, w/the sfc trough forecast to drift south into TX/OK
over the next couple of days.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge moved north
into the FA yesterday, and is forecast to orient SW-NE and
strengthen over the next few days roughly in line w/the
aforementioned sfc trough.  Thus, a good chance of convection will
remain, especially in the short term.  Forecast soundings continue
to hint at mainly a heavy rain threat, w/ensembles indicating PWATs
over 1.5 std devs abv normal, and forecast to remain 1" or more for
the next few days.  Mid-lvl LRs and bulk shear look too weak to
mention any svr activity attm, but we`ll mention that a few
cells could become strong in the HWO.

For temps, w/the ridge off to the east, and increased moisture, H85
temps don`t move much over the next week, keeping things right
around normal as far as highs go, and abv-normal lows due to higher
dewpoints.  This is in pretty good agreement w/MOS, and we see
no reason to deviate too much from it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  72  91  71 /  30  40  30  40
Carlsbad                       90  69  86  67 /  40  40  30  20
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  20  10  20  30
Fort Stockton                  90  70  89  68 /  40  30  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 80  64  79  63 /  50  50  40  20
Hobbs                          88  67  84  65 /  40  40  40  40
Marfa                          82  64  80  62 /  50  40  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           90  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Odessa                         89  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Wink                           91  71  88  69 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/44
752
FXUS64 KMAF 230451
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1151 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
Low cigs are possible later this morning mainly across the Permian
Basin. If upper clouds clear further west, MVFR cigs may fill in
along the Pecos River, so will monitor for updates. Storms will
again be possible by afternoon and may continue well into the
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  70  88  70 /  50  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       86  66  87  67 /  20  30  50  30
Dryden                         79  70  91  70 /  50  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  85  68  90  66 /  40  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 75  61  78  60 /  30  40  50  40
Hobbs                          85  66  85  64 /  30  20  40  40
Marfa                          79  59  81  58 /  40  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           85  70  89  70 /  50  30  40  40
Odessa                         84  70  89  69 /  40  30  40  40
Wink                           87  70  90  67 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/
085
FXUS64 KMAF 222331
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect to still have some lingering showers and storms around the
area through 02-03z but have not included these in TAFs. Should
see a return of stratus again tomorrow morning at MAF... FST...
and HOB with MVFR cigs. Storm chances again tomorrow especially
for SE NM and Upper Trans Pecos so included mention at CNM...
PEQ... and INK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Southwest flow aloft will prevail over southeast New Mexico and west
Texas through the upcoming week, as the region remains sandwiched
between an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and a persistent
ua trough over the western ConUS.  Ample moisture will funnel
northeastward over the region within this flow, as indicated by
higher theta e air around h5.  Considering surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s through the week, PWats will be at least 1.5 inches, if
not 2 inches at times, or 1 to 2 S.D. above normal.  Will keep PoPs
going most areas, and most periods, through the week under this
regime as models also bring an assortment of perturbations/MCVs
either north around the western fringe of the ua ridge, or
northeastward ahead of, or associated with, the ua trough to the
west.

Flash flood guidance is lowest over Eddy County in SE NM where heavy
rainfall/flash flooding occurred yesterday (Aug 21st).  It looks
like rain chances will be highest elsewhere through tonight, so will
forego issuance of a Flash Flood Watch at this time.  However,
models appear to latch on to a disturbance, if not a combination of
disturbances Tuesday and Wednesday and bring them over the region. A
southwest to northeast axis of heavier rainfall is displayed by
several models, but in different locations.  We will hold off on
issuance of a Flash Flood Watch at this time, but one may be
forthcoming for SE NM and/or a good portion of west Texas in the
next 12 to 24 hours.

This upper pattern persists into next weekend, but some models are
now indicating the upper ridge becoming more prevalent by then. Will
keep temperatures near or slightly below normal this week, but rain
chances could be on the decrease, and temps on the increase as early
as Thursday, but most likely Saturday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  88  70  90 /  30  40  30  20
Carlsbad                       66  87  67  85 /  30  50  30  30
Dryden                         70  91  70  93 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Stockton                  68  90  66  91 /  20  50  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  78  60  76 /  40  50  40  40
Hobbs                          66  85  64  82 /  20  40  40  30
Marfa                          59  81  58  82 /  40  50  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  70  91 /  30  40  40  30
Odessa                         70  89  69  91 /  30  40  40  30
Wink                           70  90  67  89 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
718
FXUS64 KMAF 221837
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Southwest flow aloft will prevail over southeast New Mexico and west
Texas through the upcoming week, as the region remains sandwiched
between an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and a persistent
ua trough over the western ConUS.  Ample moisture will funnel
northeastward over the region within this flow, as indicated by
higher theta e air around h5.  Considering surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s through the week, PWats will be at least 1.5 inches, if
not 2 inches at times, or 1 to 2 S.D. above normal.  Will keep PoPs
going most areas, and most periods, through the week under this
regime as models also bring an assortment of perturbations/MCVs
either north around the western fringe of the ua ridge, or
northeastward ahead of, or associated with, the ua trough to the
west.

Flash flood guidance is lowest over Eddy County in SE NM where heavy
rainfall/flash flooding occurred yesterday (Aug 21st).  It looks
like rain chances will be highest elsewhere through tonight, so will
forego issuance of a Flash Flood Watch at this time.  However,
models appear to latch on to a disturbance, if not a combination of
disturbances Tuesday and Wednesday and bring them over the region. A
southwest to northeast axis of heavier rainfall is displayed by
several models, but in different locations.  We will hold off on
issuance of a Flash Flood Watch at this time, but one may be
forthcoming for SE NM and/or a good portion of west Texas in the
next 12 to 24 hours.

This upper pattern persists into next weekend, but some models are
now indicating the upper ridge becoming more prevalent by then. Will
keep temperatures near or slightly below normal this week, but rain
chances could be on the decrease, and temps on the increase as early
as Thursday, but most likely Saturday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  88  70  90 /  30  40  30  20
Carlsbad                       66  87  67  85 /  30  50  30  30
Dryden                         70  91  70  93 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Stockton                  68  90  66  91 /  20  50  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  78  60  76 /  40  50  40  40
Hobbs                          66  85  64  82 /  20  40  40  30
Marfa                          59  81  58  82 /  40  50  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  70  91 /  30  40  40  30
Odessa                         70  89  69  91 /  30  40  40  30
Wink                           70  90  67  89 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

49/67
408
FXUS64 KMAF 221726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few MVFR CIGS are left around CNM/HOB but most have lifted to
between 030-040 AGL. We expect this will mostly be the trend thru
afternoon. A few -SHRA have moved into the FST/MAF areas and have
included only a TEMPO -SHRA there, lightning has been mostly
absent from convection well to SE of MAF/FST since about 15Z. SE
wind will increase to around or just under 15kts early this
evening before decreasing again around 06Z-09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have been slow to expand over the area, but are
still expected to materialize for several hours this morning,
with areawide improvement to VFR expected around 17-18Z.
Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, thus have included
TEMPO mention at FST and MAF where confidence is highest. Heavy
rain could produce MVFR/IFR conditions, with lightning and gusty
winds also expected. Southeast winds could become gusty after
23/00Z, particularly at west Texas terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as a relatively cool, wet
pattern continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
week. WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over FL and the Gulf
Coast, leaving SW flow aloft over our area further west.  Over the
SW CONUS, an upper trough is forecast to develop over the next few
days as a PacNW low over BC transverses srn Canada, and arrive over
West Texas/SE NM by midweek.  Currently, area radars show ongoing
convection over SW NM, invof the low-lvl theta-e ridge axis
extending up from Mexico.  Over the next 24 hours, models are in
agreement in advecting richer theta-e (340K+) up thru the Big
Bend/Lwr Trans Pecos into the region, further enhancing convective
prospects.  Main concerns next 24 hours will be additional rainfall
over Eddy County, where KCNM received over 2" of rainfall yesterday.
FFMP estimates that over 4" fell just SE of Carlsbad, while MRMS
estimates 2.5" or more.  This area will have to be monitored closely
today, as little additional rainfall will be needed to exacerbate
ongoing flooding.  Briefly considered issuing a FFA for this area
today, but areas of yesterday`s QPEs are rather small for a FFA, and
models don`t suggest enough additional QPF to warrant one attm.

That said, w/the theta-e ridge nosing up into the FA over the next
few days, orienting SW-NE, good chances for convection remain.
Ensembles keep anomalously high PWATs over S. Texas this week, but
1" or greater is still forecast over West Texas/SE NM.  Under SW
flow aloft, a chance can`t be ruled out.

For temps, w/the ridge to the east, and expected increased cloud
cover and moisture, unseasonably cool wx remains on tap.  Models
suggest a general uptick in H85 temps into the extended, w/temps
approaching normal by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  87  72  88 /  40  40  30  20
Carlsbad                       69  90  67  87 /  30  40  30  30
Dryden                         73  85  72  86 /  30  20  10  30
Fort Stockton                  70  87  68  84 /  20  50  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  76  61  76 /  40  50  40  40
Hobbs                          68  89  66  85 /  20  40  40  30
Marfa                          63  76  61  76 /  40  50  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           73  86  71  85 /  30  40  40  30
Odessa                         72  87  70  84 /  30  40  40  30
Wink                           73  90  70  84 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
648
FXUS64 KMAF 221138
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have been slow to expand over the area, but are
still expected to materialize for several hours this morning,
with areawide improvement to VFR expected around 17-18Z.
Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, thus have included
TEMPO mention at FST and MAF where confidence is highest. Heavy
rain could produce MVFR/IFR conditions, with lightning and gusty
winds also expected. Southeast winds could become gusty after
23/00Z, particularly at west Texas terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as a relatively cool, wet
pattern continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
week. WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over FL and the Gulf
Coast, leaving SW flow aloft over our area further west.  Over the
SW CONUS, an upper trough is forecast to develop over the next few
days as a PacNW low over BC transverses srn Canada, and arrive over
West Texas/SE NM by midweek.  Currently, area radars show ongoing
convection over SW NM, invof the low-lvl theta-e ridge axis
extending up from Mexico.  Over the next 24 hours, models are in
agreement in advecting richer theta-e (340K+) up thru the Big
Bend/Lwr Trans Pecos into the region, further enhancing convective
prospects.  Main concerns next 24 hours will be additional rainfall
over Eddy County, where KCNM received over 2" of rainfall yesterday.
FFMP estimates that over 4" fell just SE of Carlsbad, while MRMS
estimates 2.5" or more.  This area will have to be monitored closely
today, as little additional rainfall will be needed to exacerbate
ongoing flooding.  Briefly considered issuing a FFA for this area
today, but areas of yesterday`s QPEs are rather small for a FFA, and
models don`t suggest enough additional QPF to warrant one attm.

That said, w/the theta-e ridge nosing up into the FA over the next
few days, orienting SW-NE, good chances for convection remain.
Ensembles keep anomalously high PWATs over S. Texas this week, but
1" or greater is still forecast over West Texas/SE NM.  Under SW
flow aloft, a chance can`t be ruled out.

For temps, w/the ridge to the east, and expected increased cloud
cover and moisture, unseasonably cool wx remains on tap.  Models
suggest a general uptick in H85 temps into the extended, w/temps
approaching normal by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  73  87  72 /  50  40  40  30
Carlsbad                       86  69  90  67 /  20  30  40  30
Dryden                         79  73  85  72 /  50  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  85  70  87  68 /  40  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 75  64  76  61 /  30  40  50  40
Hobbs                          85  68  89  66 /  30  20  40  40
Marfa                          79  63  76  61 /  40  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           85  73  86  71 /  50  30  40  40
Odessa                         84  72  87  70 /  40  30  40  40
Wink                           87  73  90  70 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
429
FXUS64 KMAF 220845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as a relatively cool, wet
pattern continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
week. WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over FL and the Gulf
Coast, leaving SW flow aloft over our area further west.  Over the
SW CONUS, an upper trough is forecast to develop over the next few
days as a PacNW low over BC transverses srn Canada, and arrive over
West Texas/SE NM by midweek.  Currently, area radars show ongoing
convection over SW NM, invof the low-lvl theta-e ridge axis
extending up from Mexico.  Over the next 24 hours, models are in
agreement in advecting richer theta-e (340K+) up thru the Big
Bend/Lwr Trans Pecos into the region, further enhancing convective
prospects.  Main concerns next 24 hours will be additional rainfall
over Eddy County, where KCNM received over 2" of rainfall yesterday.
FFMP estimates that over 4" fell just SE of Carlsbad, while MRMS
estimates 2.5" or more.  This area will have to be monitored closely
today, as little additional rainfall will be needed to exacerbate
ongoing flooding.  Briefly considered issuing a FFA for this area
today, but areas of yesterday`s QPEs are rather small for a FFA, and
models don`t suggest enough additional QPF to warrant one attm.

That said, w/the theta-e ridge nosing up into the FA over the next
few days, orienting SW-NE, good chances for convection remain.
Ensembles keep anomalously high PWATs over S. Texas this week, but
1" or greater is still forecast over West Texas/SE NM.  Under SW
flow aloft, a chance can`t be ruled out.

For temps, w/the ridge to the east, and expected increased cloud
cover and moisture, unseasonably cool wx remains on tap.  Models
suggest a general uptick in H85 temps into the extended, w/temps
approaching normal by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  73  87  72 /  50  40  40  30
Carlsbad                       86  69  90  67 /  20  30  40  30
Dryden                         79  73  85  72 /  50  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  85  70  87  68 /  40  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 75  64  76  61 /  30  40  50  40
Hobbs                          85  68  89  66 /  30  20  40  40
Marfa                          79  63  76  61 /  40  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           85  73  86  71 /  50  30  40  40
Odessa                         84  72  87  70 /  40  30  40  40
Wink                           87  73  90  70 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44
788
FXUS64 KMAF 220600
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
100 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Main concern this forecast period are low ceilings/visibility
that will overspread the area late tonight. MVFR stratus has
already started to develop over portions of the area, and is
expected to expand, affecting area terminals by around 08Z, with
low-end MVFR/IFR conditions possible around daybreak. Improvement
will be slow, with a return to VFR conditions not expected until
around 17-20Z, with showers/thunderstorms again possible Monday
afternoon, though have not mentioned TSRA at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heights are expected to rise over Texas Monday as an ua trough over
the Midwest ejects northeastward into Canada, which will allow the
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS to expand westward.  Progs
indicate the upper ridge will not become established over the
central U.S. through next week though, initially due to a weak
southern stream ua trough expanding across the southwestern ConUS,
and thereafter the same ua trough being reinvigorated by a stronger
northern stream ua trough along the U.S./Canadian border.  This will
put southeast New Mexico and west Texas under weak southwesterly
flow aloft today, and a bit stronger southwesterly flow aloft Monday
through Thursday as the trough deepens/expands south through New
Mexico.  The net result will be a continuation of rain chances, and
near to below normal temperatures for the next six or seven days.

The above mentioned ua trough over the desert southwest will provide
a chance of showers and storms over southeast New Mexico this
afternoon and tonight, with additional showers and storms possible
over west Texas due to upslope flow and the heating of the higher
terrain.  Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall as PWats
will be around 1.25 inches.  PWats will be on the increase tonight
and Monday as moisture, and a couple of mid level disturbances, move
north over the region on the westward expanding fringe of the upper
ridge.  Water Vapor satellite imagery indicates the first such
perturbation to be over eastern Coahuila this afternoon.  Since
models build the upper ridge westward to varying degrees, and lift
this perturbation northward at different speeds, will increase PoPs
late tonight and Monday over the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin.  Do not think enough rainfall will occur for widespread flash
flooding, so will mention heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphics on the NWS
MAF homepage.

The forecast area will remain between the deepening ua trough to the
west and the ua ridge to the east Tuesday through Thursday.
PWats will be high enough during this time for heavy rainfall, so if
we receive fairly widespread rainfall Monday, a Flash Flood Watch
may be needed Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday for portions of the
forecast area.  After Thursday, the ua ridge attempts to strengthen/
expand westward.  It looks like PoPs will not be as high, but there
will still be at least a slight chance of showers and storms Friday
through next weekend in most locations.  Another cold front may move
into the region Thursday, but the continuation of rain chances,
cloud cover and moist ground will keep high temperatures near to
slightly below normal through the week, if not late in the extended
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  71  88  71 /  50  40  40  30
Carlsbad                       85  68  90  67 /  20  30  40  30
Dryden                         83  70  90  71 /  50  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  83  68  87  67 /  40  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 76  62  78  62 /  30  40  50  40
Hobbs                          81  66  87  63 /  30  20  40  40
Marfa                          78  59  77  58 /  40  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           83  70  86  70 /  50  30  40  40
Odessa                         84  70  86  69 /  40  30  40  40
Wink                           85  70  88  67 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
413
FXUS64 KMAF 212355
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
655 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Still dealing with showers and storms near CNM... INK... and PEQ
for a few more hours. Expect low clouds and possibly fog to
develop at HOB... MAF... and FST with IFR conditions possible by
12z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heights are expected to rise over Texas Monday as an ua trough over
the Midwest ejects northeastward into Canada, which will allow the
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS to expand westward.  Progs
indicate the upper ridge will not become established over the
central U.S. through next week though, initially due to a weak
southern stream ua trough expanding across the southwestern ConUS,
and thereafter the same ua trough being reinvigorated by a stronger
northern stream ua trough along the U.S./Canadian border.  This will
put southeast New Mexico and west Texas under weak southwesterly
flow aloft today, and a bit stronger southwesterly flow aloft Monday
through Thursday as the trough deepens/expands south through New
Mexico.  The net result will be a continuation of rain chances, and
near to below normal temperatures for the next six or seven days.

The above mentioned ua trough over the desert southwest will provide
a chance of showers and storms over southeast New Mexico this
afternoon and tonight, with additional showers and storms possible
over west Texas due to upslope flow and the heating of the higher
terrain.  Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall as PWats
will be around 1.25 inches.  PWats will be on the increase tonight
and Monday as moisture, and a couple of mid level disturbances, move
north over the region on the westward expanding fringe of the upper
ridge.  Water Vapor satellite imagery indicates the first such
perturbation to be over eastern Coahuila this afternoon.  Since
models build the upper ridge westward to varying degrees, and lift
this perturbation northward at different speeds, will increase PoPs
late tonight and Monday over the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin.  Do not think enough rainfall will occur for widespread flash
flooding, so will mention heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphics on the NWS
MAF homepage.

The forecast area will remain between the deepening ua trough to the
west and the ua ridge to the east Tuesday through Thursday.
PWats will be high enough during this time for heavy rainfall, so if
we receive fairly widespread rainfall Monday, a Flash Flood Watch
may be needed Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday for portions of the
forecast area.  After Thursday, the ua ridge attempts to strengthen/
expand westward.  It looks like PoPs will not be as high, but there
will still be at least a slight chance of showers and storms Friday
through next weekend in most locations.  Another cold front may move
into the region Thursday, but the continuation of rain chances,
cloud cover and moist ground will keep high temperatures near to
slightly below normal through the week, if not late in the extended
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  82  71  88 /  20  60  30  40
Carlsbad                       66  85  68  90 /  20  30  30  40
Dryden                         70  83  70  90 /  50  50  20  20
Fort Stockton                  67  83  68  87 /  30  50  20  50
Guadalupe Pass                 60  76  62  78 /  30  40  30  40
Hobbs                          62  81  66  87 /  20  30  20  40
Marfa                          58  78  59  77 /  30  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           67  83  70  86 /  20  50  20  50
Odessa                         67  84  70  86 /  20  50  20  50
Wink                           67  85  70  88 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
380
FXUS64 KMAF 211857
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
157 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Heights are expected to rise over Texas Monday as an ua trough over
the Midwest ejects northeastward into Canada, which will allow the
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS to expand westward.  Progs
indicate the upper ridge will not become established over the
central U.S. through next week though, initially due to a weak
southern stream ua trough expanding across the southwestern ConUS,
and thereafter the same ua trough being reinvigorated by a stronger
northern stream ua trough along the U.S./Canadian border.  This will
put southeast New Mexico and west Texas under weak southwesterly
flow aloft today, and a bit stronger southwesterly flow aloft Monday
through Thursday as the trough deepens/expands south through New
Mexico.  The net result will be a continuation of rain chances, and
near to below normal temperatures for the next six or seven days.

The above mentioned ua trough over the desert southwest will provide
a chance of showers and storms over southeast New Mexico this
afternoon and tonight, with additional showers and storms possible
over west Texas due to upslope flow and the heating of the higher
terrain.  Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall as PWats
will be around 1.25 inches.  PWats will be on the increase tonight
and Monday as moisture, and a couple of mid level disturbances, move
north over the region on the westward expanding fringe of the upper
ridge.  Water Vapor satellite imagery indicates the first such
perturbation to be over eastern Coahuila this afternoon.  Since
models build the upper ridge westward to varying degrees, and lift
this perturbation northward at different speeds, will increase PoPs
late tonight and Monday over the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin.  Do not think enough rainfall will occur for widespread flash
flooding, so will mention heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphics on the NWS
MAF homepage.

The forecast area will remain between the deepening ua trough to the
west and the ua ridge to the east Tuesday through Thursday.
PWats will be high enough during this time for heavy rainfall, so if
we receive fairly widespread rainfall Monday, a Flash Flood Watch
may be needed Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday for portions of the
forecast area.  After Thursday, the ua ridge attempts to strengthen/
expand westward.  It looks like PoPs will not be as high, but there
will still be at least a slight chance of showers and storms Friday
through next weekend in most locations.  Another cold front may move
into the region Thursday, but the continuation of rain chances,
cloud cover and moist ground will keep high temperatures near to
slightly below normal through the week, if not late in the extended
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  82  71  88 /  20  60  30  40
Carlsbad                       66  85  68  90 /  20  30  30  40
Dryden                         70  83  70  90 /  50  50  20  20
Fort Stockton                  67  83  68  87 /  30  50  20  50
Guadalupe Pass                 60  76  62  78 /  30  40  30  40
Hobbs                          62  81  66  87 /  20  30  20  40
Marfa                          58  78  59  77 /  30  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           67  83  70  86 /  20  50  20  50
Odessa                         67  84  70  86 /  20  50  20  50
Wink                           67  85  70  88 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/67
130
FXUS64 KMAF 211751
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1251 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions will persist at TAF locations this afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorms producing heavy rain will result in
isolated IFR conditions near KCNM through 211900z. There is potential
for IFR ceilings and fog overnight at most TAF locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, with relatively cool, wet
wx on tap for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into next week.
Sfc analysis shows that the cold front has cleared the Big Bend
Area, ushering in below-normal temperatures across the area.  In the
upper lvls, WV imagery shows the trough that brought the cold front
to the region yesterday is ejecting NE thru the Great Lakes region,
w/split flow around a ridge in the west centered over nrn CA and
converging over the Arklatex.

Sfc ridging will move off to the east today, allowing winds to veer
back around to return flow overnight, and pushing a warm front north
thru the area into Monday.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge currently lies
over the SW portion of the FA, and models develop this NE into the
area over the next 72 hours, orienting it SW-NE across West Texas
and SE NM by Tue/Wed.  In general, models keep the upper ridge over
the Gulf Coast states into the extended, leaving our area under SW
flow aloft and allowing multiple disturbances to move thru the area.
Ensembles show most of the anomalously high PWAT still lies further
east across central Texas, but does extend into the Davis/Apache
Mtns, so opportunities for decent rains exist, especially in the
short term.

Temps into the extended will be tricky due to expected cloud
cover/precip, but models generally warm H85 temps throughout the
week.  However, things should stay below normal as far as highs go,
w/increased moisture keeping mins above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  83  73  86 /  20  50  30  20
Carlsbad                       68  86  69  89 /  30  30  30  30
Dryden                         72  80  73  86 /  40  50  20  20
Fort Stockton                  68  83  70  86 /  20  40  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  75  63  77 /  40  40  30  40
Hobbs                          64  84  67  85 /  20  30  20  30
Marfa                          60  76  63  76 /  40  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           68  83  72  84 /  20  40  20  20
Odessa                         68  83  72  84 /  20  40  20  30
Wink                           69  85  72  86 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/67
493
FXUS64 KMAF 211120
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main concern this forecast period are MVFR ceilings affecting
area terminals this morning, with improvement not expected until
around 15Z/16Z when ceilings lift and scatter out around 4-5kft.
A few showers may affect CNM this morning, and while additional
storms are possible this afternoon/evening, have not included
mention due to timing uncertainty. Otherwise, VFR conditions with
E/SE winds are expected from late this morning onward, with low
ceilings expected to return after 22/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, with relatively cool, wet
wx on tap for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into next week.
Sfc analysis shows that the cold front has cleared the Big Bend
Area, ushering in below-normal temperatures across the area.  In the
upper lvls, WV imagery shows the trough that brought the cold front
to the region yesterday is ejecting NE thru the Great Lakes region,
w/split flow around a ridge in the west centered over nrn CA and
converging over the Arklatex.

Sfc ridging will move off to the east today, allowing winds to veer
back around to return flow overnight, and pushing a warm front north
thru the area into Monday.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge currently lies
over the SW portion of the FA, and models develop this NE into the
area over the next 72 hours, orienting it SW-NE across West Texas
and SE NM by Tue/Wed.  In general, models keep the upper ridge over
the Gulf Coast states into the extended, leaving our area under SW
flow aloft and allowing multiple disturbances to move thru the area.
Ensembles show most of the anomalously high PWAT still lies further
east across central Texas, but does extend into the Davis/Apache
Mtns, so opportunities for decent rains exist, especially in the
short term.

Temps into the extended will be tricky due to expected cloud
cover/precip, but models generally warm H85 temps throughout the
week.  However, things should stay below normal as far as highs go,
w/increased moisture keeping mins above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  69  83  73 /  20  20  50  30
Carlsbad                       82  68  86  69 /  40  30  30  30
Dryden                         82  72  80  73 /  40  40  50  20
Fort Stockton                  84  68  83  70 /  30  20  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 71  61  75  63 /  50  40  40  30
Hobbs                          81  64  84  67 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          75  60  76  63 /  40  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           83  68  83  72 /  20  20  40  20
Odessa                         83  68  83  72 /  20  20  40  20
Wink                           85  69  85  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
778
FXUS64 KMAF 210845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, with relatively cool, wet
wx on tap for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into next week.
Sfc analysis shows that the cold front has cleared the Big Bend
Area, ushering in below-normal temperatures across the area.  In the
upper lvls, WV imagery shows the trough that brought the cold front
to the region yesterday is ejecting NE thru the Great Lakes region,
w/split flow around a ridge in the west centered over nrn CA and
converging over the Arklatex.

Sfc ridging will move off to the east today, allowing winds to veer
back around to return flow overnight, and pushing a warm front north
thru the area into Monday.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge currently lies
over the SW portion of the FA, and models develop this NE into the
area over the next 72 hours, orienting it SW-NE across West Texas
and SE NM by Tue/Wed.  In general, models keep the upper ridge over
the Gulf Coast states into the extended, leaving our area under SW
flow aloft and allowing multiple disturbances to move thru the area.
Ensembles show most of the anomalously high PWAT still lies further
east across central Texas, but does extend into the Davis/Apache
Mtns, so opportunities for decent rains exist, especially in the
short term.

Temps into the extended will be tricky due to expected cloud
cover/precip, but models generally warm H85 temps throughout the
week.  However, things should stay below normal as far as highs go,
w/increased moisture keeping mins above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  69  83  73 /  20  20  50  30
Carlsbad                       82  68  86  69 /  40  30  30  30
Dryden                         82  72  80  73 /  40  40  50  20
Fort Stockton                  84  68  83  70 /  30  20  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 71  61  75  63 /  50  40  40  30
Hobbs                          81  64  84  67 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          75  60  76  63 /  40  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           83  68  83  72 /  20  20  40  20
Odessa                         83  68  83  72 /  20  20  40  20
Wink                           85  69  85  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44
834
FXUS64 KMAF 210513
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Main concern this forecast period are low ceilings, which could
affect all area TAF sites around daybreak until mid-morning on
Sunday. Have included prevailing MVFR ceilings at CNM and FST
beginning at 12Z where confidence is highest, and maintained
TEMPOs elsewhere. By around 15/16Z, ceilings are expected to lift
and become sct/bkn around 4-5kft, with VFR conditions prevailing
thereafter. FST and CNM could see some showers overnight tonight,
with rain/thunderstorm potential returning for CNM during the
afternoon/evening on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is moving south through the northern Permian Basin this
afternoon, preceded by an outflow boundary/prefrontal trough which
is near the Pecos River.  Showers and thunderstorms have been slow
to develop, but with heating this afternoon, and the arrival of the
front, it appears widely scattered showers and storms will be
possible over most of the Permian Basin with better chances over the
higher terrain where upslope flow will increase the next 6 hours.

A fairly strong upper level trough, at least for August, over the
midwest this afternoon will translate eastward.  A period of weak
shortwave ridging over the central ConUS Sunday/Monday will be
followed by dual ua troughs, the more potent will track along the
U.S./Canadian border, the other will translate eastward over the
southwest ConUS and deepen somewhat as it moves over the southern
U.S. Plains Wednesday/Thursday.  This progressive pattern will keep
an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS, drop a cold front
through the forecast area today, followed by another front next
Thursday, and perhaps another a week from Monday.  Moisture will
remain relatively high over the region due to a steady feed of
mid/upper level moisture streaming around the western periphery of
the ua ridge during this time, and the cold fronts not being strong
enough to abate a steady feed of low level Gulf moisture.

All of the above points to a continuing chance of rain the next
seven days and below normal temperatures, for the most part on both
counts.  The best rain chances will shift to the Upper Trans Pecos
and southwest Texas tonight as the front moves south and upslope
flow increases due to more easterly low level winds.  Most of these
same areas will have low end chance PoPs Sunday with more isolated
convection possible over the rest of the area.  On Monday, rain
chances will rise a little over the Permian Basin as mid level
perturbations impinge upon the area from Mexico around the ua ridge,
and ahead of the next ua trough mentioned above.  PoPs will increase
a bit more Monday night and Tuesday as this same ua trough deepens,
with a few shortwave troughs progged to enhance lift over the area.
Another cold front will drop south in the wake of the trough by
Thursday with more rain chances along and behind it.  Heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding will be the main threats from showers
and storms for the seven day forecast.  Temperatures will be near
normal Tuesday and Wednesday, but will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal the rest of the days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  68  81  70 /  20  20  50  30
Carlsbad                       85  65  86  66 /  40  30  30  30
Dryden                         87  71  81  72 /  40  40  50  20
Fort Stockton                  84  65  83  69 /  30  20  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 77  59  80  63 /  50  40  40  30
Hobbs                          80  63  82  65 /  10  20  30  20
Marfa                          79  59  81  60 /  40  40  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           84  67  82  69 /  20  20  40  20
Odessa                         84  67  83  70 /  20  20  40  20
Wink                           87  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
723
FXUS64 KMAF 202331
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for much of the night at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected this evening along and near the Pecos River and could
impact KCNM, KINK, KPEQ, and KFST. Will handle with tempo VFR
groups for gusty winds and rain at these terminals and then
monitor for possible amendments. Otherwise, a period of MVFR
ceilings are expected at most terminals late tonight and Sunday
morning from around 12z to 16z. VFR conditions are expected at all
the terminals by late Sunday morning.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is moving south through the northern Permian Basin this
afternoon, preceded by an outflow boundary/prefrontal trough which
is near the Pecos River.  Showers and thunderstorms have been slow
to develop, but with heating this afternoon, and the arrival of the
front, it appears widely scattered showers and storms will be
possible over most of the Permian Basin with better chances over the
higher terrain where upslope flow will increase the next 6 hours.

A fairly strong upper level trough, at least for August, over the
midwest this afternoon will translate eastward.  A period of weak
shortwave ridging over the central ConUS Sunday/Monday will be
followed by dual ua troughs, the more potent will track along the
U.S./Canadian border, the other will translate eastward over the
southwest ConUS and deepen somewhat as it moves over the southern
U.S. Plains Wednesday/Thursday.  This progressive pattern will keep
an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS, drop a cold front
through the forecast area today, followed by another front next
Thursday, and perhaps another a week from Monday.  Moisture will
remain relatively high over the region due to a steady feed of
mid/upper level moisture streaming around the western periphery of
the ua ridge during this time, and the cold fronts not being strong
enough to abate a steady feed of low level Gulf moisture.

All of the above points to a continuing chance of rain the next
seven days and below normal temperatures, for the most part on both
counts.  The best rain chances will shift to the Upper Trans Pecos
and southwest Texas tonight as the front moves south and upslope
flow increases due to more easterly low level winds.  Most of these
same areas will have low end chance PoPs Sunday with more isolated
convection possible over the rest of the area.  On Monday, rain
chances will rise a little over the Permian Basin as mid level
perturbations impinge upon the area from Mexico around the ua ridge,
and ahead of the next ua trough mentioned above.  PoPs will increase
a bit more Monday night and Tuesday as this same ua trough deepens,
with a few shortwave troughs progged to enhance lift over the area.
Another cold front will drop south in the wake of the trough by
Thursday with more rain chances along and behind it.  Heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding will be the main threats from showers
and storms for the seven day forecast.  Temperatures will be near
normal Tuesday and Wednesday, but will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal the rest of the days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  85  68  81 /  10  20  10  50
Carlsbad                       66  85  65  86 /  30  30  20  30
Dryden                         73  87  71  81 /  30  40  40  50
Fort Stockton                  67  84  65  83 /  40  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 61  77  59  80 /  40  40  30  30
Hobbs                          62  80  63  82 /  20  10  10  20
Marfa                          60  79  59  81 /  40  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  84  67  82 /  10  20  10  40
Odessa                         68  84  67  83 /  10  20  10  30
Wink                           68  87  67  86 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/67
662
FXUS64 KMAF 201925
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
225 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front is moving south through the northern Permian Basin this
afternoon, preceded by an outflow boundary/prefrontal trough which
is near the Pecos River.  Showers and thunderstorms have been slow
to develop, but with heating this afternoon, and the arrival of the
front, it appears widely scattered showers and storms will be
possible over most of the Permian Basin with better chances over the
higher terrain where upslope flow will increase the next 6 hours.

A fairly strong upper level trough, at least for August, over the
midwest this afternoon will translate eastward.  A period of weak
shortwave ridging over the central ConUS Sunday/Monday will be
followed by dual ua troughs, the more potent will track along the
U.S./Canadian border, the other will translate eastward over the
southwest ConUS and deepen somewhat as it moves over the southern
U.S. Plains Wednesday/Thursday.  This progressive pattern will keep
an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS, drop a cold front
through the forecast area today, followed by another front next
Thursday, and perhaps another a week from Monday.  Moisture will
remain relatively high over the region due to a steady feed of
mid/upper level moisture streaming around the western periphery of
the ua ridge during this time, and the cold fronts not being strong
enough to abate a steady feed of low level Gulf moisture.

All of the above points to a continuing chance of rain the next
seven days and below normal temperatures, for the most part on both
counts.  The best rain chances will shift to the Upper Trans Pecos
and southwest Texas tonight as the front moves south and upslope
flow increases due to more easterly low level winds.  Most of these
same areas will have low end chance PoPs Sunday with more isolated
convection possible over the rest of the area.  On Monday, rain
chances will rise a little over the Permian Basin as mid level
perturbations impinge upon the area from Mexico around the ua ridge,
and ahead of the next ua trough mentioned above.  PoPs will increase
a bit more Monday night and Tuesday as this same ua trough deepens,
with a few shortwave troughs progged to enhance lift over the area.
Another cold front will drop south in the wake of the trough by
Thursday with more rain chances along and behind it.  Heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding will be the main threats from showers
and storms for the seven day forecast.  Temperatures will be near
normal Tuesday and Wednesday, but will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal the rest of the days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  85  68  81 /  10  20  10  50
Carlsbad                       66  85  65  86 /  30  30  20  30
Dryden                         73  87  71  81 /  30  40  40  50
Fort Stockton                  67  84  65  83 /  40  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 61  77  59  80 /  40  40  30  30
Hobbs                          62  80  63  82 /  20  10  10  20
Marfa                          60  79  59  81 /  40  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  84  67  82 /  10  20  10  40
Odessa                         68  84  67  83 /  10  20  10  30
Wink                           68  87  67  86 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/67
230
FXUS64 KMAF 201751
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 20/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

An outflow boundary has sagged south, crossing KCNM, KHOB, KINK
and KMAF, while the "true" front won`t arrive until 20Z or so.
Post-frontal stratus is breaking up according to satellite data,
thus will go with VFR conditions. Possible we`ll see SHRA/TSRA
activity affecting KCNM, KPEQ, and maybe KINK after midnight but
the factors favoring this scenario are diminishing with time.
Should see a return to MVFR cigs at KMAF and KFST early Sunday
morning, with skies breaking to VFR by mid morning. Gusty east to
northeast winds are expected this afternoon before dropping under
11 knots very early this evening. Will see an increase in winds
with some slight veering expected by mid morning Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 451 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front working thru the South
Plains, w/the latest NAM bringing fropa thru KMAF late morning, w/sfc
flow gradually backing north over the next 12 hours or so. Main
concerns remain cigs. Forecast soundings still develop stratus
as the front moves south, w/LIFR/IFR conditions expected eastern
terminals, to MVFR/VFR west. May see some scattering to VFR all
terminals during the afternoon, but convection along the front
may hinder this.

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Precipitation has remained just east and north of the area
overnight tonight, though the much advertised cold front
continues its push southward through the Texas Panhandle and
eastern New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front
have made the front difficult to distinguish on surface
observations, though it appears to be located roughly from north
of Childress westward to just south of Clovis, New Mexico. High
resolution guidance indicates that the front will begin to move
into far northern zones around 12Z/7AM CDT this morning, and
progress southward (aided somewhat by convective outflow) before
stalling out and becoming diffuse in the vicinity of the Pecos
River around 18Z/1PM CDT this afternoon. Precipitable water values
remain high across the area, ranging from around 1.0 to 1.5
inches, and given the approaching front and lingering boundaries
across the area, thunderstorms are possible areawide today. The
primary threat, similar to the past several days, will be locally
heavy rainfall. Localized flooding concerns may also materialize,
particularly in areas that have received recent rainfall as well
as any locations that experience cell training. Given the timing
of the front this morning and early afternoon, highs will only
reach into the 80s today, with a couple spots around 90 degrees,
mainly in the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys. With a
northeasterly wind shift in the wake of the front today, breezy
northeasterly gap winds could materialize in Guadalupe Pass for a
few hours this afternoon.

Temperatures Sunday in the wake of the front will be well below
normal, with highs in the 80s for much of the area, and even some
upper 70s across the higher terrain. Moist southeasterly surface
flow as well as the diffuse boundary will maintain precipitation
chances across the area on Sunday, with guidance indicating the
best chance across higher terrain and adjacent plains to the west,
as well as across the Lower Trans Pecos and in the Big Bend Area.
After another cool day Monday, temperatures will moderate a bit
back toward normal on Tuesday and Wednesday, though given the
abundance of low and midlevel moisture over the area, rain chances
look to stick around, as weak perturbations in the southwesterly
flow aloft move over the region. Rain chances look to be a bit
lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, though models have come into
better agreement regarding the evolution of a trough that is
progged to develop over the southwestern CONUS next week and
progress eastward, indicating the potential for another front and
increased rain chances by late next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  68  85  68 /  50  20  20  30
Carlsbad                       87  66  85  65 /  40  40  30  30
Dryden                         89  73  87  71 /  40  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  87  67  84  65 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 81  61  77  59 /  40  40  40  30
Hobbs                          82  62  81  63 /  40  30  20  20
Marfa                          84  60  79  59 /  40  40  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           87  67  84  67 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         87  67  84  67 /  40  30  20  30
Wink                           89  68  87  67 /  40  50  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/67/70
306
FXUS64 KMAF 200951
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
451 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front working thru the South
Plains, w/the latest NAM bringing fropa thru KMAF late morning, w/sfc
flow gradually backing north over the next 12 hours or so. Main
concerns remain cigs. Forecast soundings still develop stratus
as the front moves south, w/LIFR/IFR conditions expected eastern
terminals, to MVFR/VFR west. May see some scattering to VFR all
terminals during the afternoon, but convection along the front
may hinder this.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Precipitation has remained just east and north of the area
overnight tonight, though the much advertised cold front
continues its push southward through the Texas Panhandle and
eastern New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front
have made the front difficult to distinguish on surface
observations, though it appears to be located roughly from north
of Childress westward to just south of Clovis, New Mexico. High
resolution guidance indicates that the front will begin to move
into far northern zones around 12Z/7AM CDT this morning, and
progress southward (aided somewhat by convective outflow) before
stalling out and becoming diffuse in the vicinity of the Pecos
River around 18Z/1PM CDT this afternoon. Precipitable water values
remain high across the area, ranging from around 1.0 to 1.5
inches, and given the approaching front and lingering boundaries
across the area, thunderstorms are possible areawide today. The
primary threat, similar to the past several days, will be locally
heavy rainfall. Localized flooding concerns may also materialize,
particularly in areas that have received recent rainfall as well
as any locations that experience cell training. Given the timing
of the front this morning and early afternoon, highs will only
reach into the 80s today, with a couple spots around 90 degrees,
mainly in the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys. With a
northeasterly wind shift in the wake of the front today, breezy
northeasterly gap winds could materialize in Guadalupe Pass for a
few hours this afternoon.

Temperatures Sunday in the wake of the front will be well below
normal, with highs in the 80s for much of the area, and even some
upper 70s across the higher terrain. Moist southeasterly surface
flow as well as the diffuse boundary will maintain precipitation
chances across the area on Sunday, with guidance indicating the
best chance across higher terrain and adjacent plains to the west,
as well as across the Lower Trans Pecos and in the Big Bend Area.
After another cool day Monday, temperatures will moderate a bit
back toward normal on Tuesday and Wednesday, though given the
abundance of low and midlevel moisture over the area, rain chances
look to stick around, as weak perturbations in the southwesterly
flow aloft move over the region. Rain chances look to be a bit
lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, though models have come into
better agreement regarding the evolution of a trough that is
progged to develop over the southwestern CONUS next week and
progress eastward, indicating the potential for another front and
increased rain chances by late next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  68  85  68 /  50  20  20  30
Carlsbad                       87  66  85  65 /  40  40  30  30
Dryden                         89  73  87  71 /  40  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  87  67  84  65 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 81  61  77  59 /  40  40  40  30
Hobbs                          82  62  81  63 /  40  30  20  20
Marfa                          84  60  79  59 /  40  40  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           87  67  84  67 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         87  67  84  67 /  40  30  20  30
Wink                           89  68  87  67 /  40  50  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44
941
FXUS64 KMAF 200854
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Precipitation has remained just east and north of the area
overnight tonight, though the much advertised cold front
continues its push southward through the Texas Panhandle and
eastern New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front
have made the front difficult to distinguish on surface
observations, though it appears to be located roughly from north
of Childress westward to just south of Clovis, New Mexico. High
resolution guidance indicates that the front will begin to move
into far northern zones around 12Z/7AM CDT this morning, and
progress southward (aided somewhat by convective outflow) before
stalling out and becoming diffuse in the vicinity of the Pecos
River around 18Z/1PM CDT this afternoon. Precipitable water values
remain high across the area, ranging from around 1.0 to 1.5
inches, and given the approaching front and lingering boundaries
across the area, thunderstorms are possible areawide today. The
primary threat, similar to the past several days, will be locally
heavy rainfall. Localized flooding concerns may also materialize,
particularly in areas that have received recent rainfall as well
as any locations that experience cell training. Given the timing
of the front this morning and early afternoon, highs will only
reach into the 80s today, with a couple spots around 90 degrees,
mainly in the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys. With a
northeasterly wind shift in the wake of the front today, breezy
northeasterly gap winds could materialize in Guadalupe Pass for a
few hours this afternoon.

Temperatures Sunday in the wake of the front will be well below
normal, with highs in the 80s for much of the area, and even some
upper 70s across the higher terrain. Moist southeasterly surface
flow as well as the diffuse boundary will maintain precipitation
chances across the area on Sunday, with guidance indicating the
best chance across higher terrain and adjacent plains to the west,
as well as across the Lower Trans Pecos and in the Big Bend Area.
After another cool day Monday, temperatures will moderate a bit
back toward normal on Tuesday and Wednesday, though given the
abundance of low and midlevel moisture over the area, rain chances
look to stick around, as weak perturbations in the southwesterly
flow aloft move over the region. Rain chances look to be a bit
lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, though models have come into
better agreement regarding the evolution of a trough that is
progged to develop over the southwestern CONUS next week and
progress eastward, indicating the potential for another front and
increased rain chances by late next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  68  85  68 /  50  20  20  30
Carlsbad                       87  66  85  65 /  40  40  30  30
Dryden                         89  73  87  71 /  40  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  87  67  84  65 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 81  61  77  59 /  40  40  40  30
Hobbs                          82  62  81  63 /  40  30  20  20
Marfa                          84  60  79  59 /  40  40  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           87  67  84  67 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         87  67  84  67 /  40  30  20  30
Wink                           89  68  87  67 /  40  50  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84
771
FXUS64 KMAF 200524
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars and sfc observations make the cold front hard to
discern this AM, but with the aid of ongoing convection, this
feature will likely arrive sooner than later, w/sfc flow gradually
backing north over the next 12 hours or so. Main concerns will be
cigs. Forecast soundings suggest stratus development over the next
few hours, w/LIFR/IFR conditions possible eastern terminals, to
MVFR/VFR west. May see some scattering to VFR all termianls
during the afternoon, but convection along the front may hinder
this.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonal broad SW flow is in place across W TX. A few embedded
shrtwv trof are evident in water vapor imagery, one lifting up thru
the BB region and another S of El Paso City. Best PoPs will remain
across the S, but convection could develop across the PB as
interface btwn cloud/insolation set up a low level thermal gradient
with ample mstr. Otherwise convection across the Lower Trans Pecos
continues to expand per cooling IR cloud tops and drifting NE. We
have accounted for this thru 06Z with high end chance/low end
likely PoPs, updates may be needed later to the lower PoPs before
06Z? Attention then shifts to a cold front that will arrive btwn
12Z-15Z across the N and 15Z-18Z across central PB Sat. SB LI`s
less than -4 do congregate around the front as do surface dwpnts
of 65-68. Models are trending a little wetter than 06Z runs and
QPF seems to focus on parts of SE NM/W PB 21Z Sat-06Z Sun. Precip
potential will fade into early Sun AM. Models still want to
generate QPF in Sun PM in moist cool se low level flow. There is
only a minor weakness in 5h heights and as such we will tend to
down play PoPs most areas. A persistent mid level trof in said SW
flow aloft will edge E INVOF wrn Hill Country, but Mon it will get
caught up in stronger sly flow W of broad anticyclone and move
N-NW. The consensus is that Monday will be wet across the Lower
Trans Pecos and possibly as far N as the central PB. The precip
gradient will probably be tight and areas just to the E are much
more favored, noting NAM12 is outlier with QPF farther w. Most
areas will be warmer drier Tue/Wed with a front probable on Thur
as upper low passes to the N. Tempertures will most be below
normal thru the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  67  83  68 /  50  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       89  66  87  64 /  40  40  30  20
Dryden                         87  72  84  70 /  40  30  30  40
Fort Stockton                  87  64  82  64 /  40  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  59  78  59 /  40  30  40  20
Hobbs                          83  61  81  62 /  40  20  20  20
Marfa                          83  59  79  58 /  40  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           88  66  84  67 /  40  20  20  20
Odessa                         87  67  84  66 /  40  20  20  20
Wink                           89  67  87  67 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44
976
FXUS64 KMAF 192244
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected much of tonight and Saturday at the
west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. The exceptions will
be at KMAF and KHOB where MVFR ceilings are expected late tonight
thru mid Saturday morning. A cold front will result in a wind
shift to the northeast at most terminals Saturday morning with
increasing chances of precipitation by Saturday afternoon.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonal broad SW flow is in place across W TX. A few embedded
shrtwv trof are evident in water vapor imagery, one lifting up thru
the BB region and another S of El Paso City. Best PoPs will remain
across the S, but convection could develop across the PB as
interface btwn cloud/insolation set up a low level thermal gradient
with ample mstr. Otherwise convection across the Lower Trans Pecos
continues to expand per cooling IR cloud tops and drifting NE. We
have accounted for this thru 06Z with high end chance/low end
likely PoPs, updates may be needed later to the lower PoPs before
06Z? Attention then shifts to a cold front that will arrive btwn
12Z-15Z across the N and 15Z-18Z across central PB Sat. SB LI`s
less than -4 do congregate around the front as do surface dwpnts
of 65-68. Models are trending a little wetter than 06Z runs and
QPF seems to focus on parts of SE NM/W PB 21Z Sat-06Z Sun. Precip
potential will fade into early Sun AM. Models still want to
generate QPF in Sun PM in moist cool se low level flow. There is
only a minor weakness in 5h heights and as such we will tend to
down play PoPs most areas. A persistent mid level trof in said SW
flow aloft will edge E INVOF wrn Hill Country, but Mon it will get
caught up in stronger sly flow W of broad anticyclone and move
N-NW. The consensus is that Monday will be wet across the Lower
Trans Pecos and possibly as far N as the central PB. The precip
gradient will probably be tight and areas just to the E are much
more favored, noting NAM12 is outlier with QPF farther w. Most
areas will be warmer drier Tue/Wed with a front probable on Thur
as upper low passes to the N. Tempertures will most be below
normal thru the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  67  83 /  30  50  20  20
Carlsbad                       68  89  66  87 /  10  40  40  30
Dryden                         72  87  72  84 /  50  40  30  30
Fort Stockton                  67  87  64  82 /  50  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 65  82  59  78 /  10  40  30  40
Hobbs                          64  83  61  81 /  10  40  20  20
Marfa                          59  83  59  79 /  40  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           70  88  66  84 /  20  40  20  20
Odessa                         71  87  67  84 /  20  40  20  20
Wink                           69  89  67  87 /  10  40  50  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
101
FXUS64 KMAF 192001
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
301 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonal broad SW flow is in place across W TX. A few embedded
shrtwv trof are evident in water vapor imagery, one lifting up thru
the BB region and another S of El Paso City. Best PoPs will remain
across the S, but convection could develop across the PB as
interface btwn cloud/insolation set up a low level thermal gradient
with ample mstr. Otherwise convection across the Lower Trans Pecos
continues to expand per cooling IR cloud tops and drifting NE. We
have accounted for this thru 06Z with high end chance/low end
likely PoPs, updates may be needed later to the lower PoPs before
06Z? Attention then shifts to a cold front that will arrive btwn
12Z-15Z across the N and 15Z-18Z across central PB Sat. SB LI`s
less than -4 do congregate around the front as do surface dwpnts
of 65-68. Models are trending a little wetter than 06Z runs and
QPF seems to focus on parts of SE NM/W PB 21Z Sat-06Z Sun. Precip
potential will fade into early Sun AM. Models still want to
generate QPF in Sun PM in moist cool se low level flow. There is
only a minor weakness in 5h heights and as such we will tend to
down play PoPs most areas. A persistent mid level trof in said SW
flow aloft will edge E INVOF wrn Hill Country, but Mon it will get
caught up in stronger sly flow W of broad anticyclone and move
N-NW. The consensus is that Monday will be wet across the Lower
Trans Pecos and possibly as far N as the central PB. The precip
gradient will probably be tight and areas just to the E are much
more favored, noting NAM12 is outlier with QPF farther w. Most
areas will be warmer drier Tue/Wed with a front probable on Thur
as upper low passes to the N. Tempertures will most be below
normal thru the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  67  83 /  30  50  20  20
Carlsbad                       68  89  66  87 /  10  40  40  30
Dryden                         72  87  72  84 /  50  40  30  30
Fort Stockton                  67  87  64  82 /  50  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 65  82  59  78 /  10  40  30  40
Hobbs                          64  83  61  81 /  10  40  20  20
Marfa                          59  83  59  79 /  40  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           70  88  66  84 /  20  40  20  20
Odessa                         71  87  67  84 /  20  40  20  20
Wink                           69  89  67  87 /  10  40  50  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
345
FXUS64 KMAF 191657
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1157 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals this afternoon,
although KFST could be affected by TSRA.  MVFR, if not IFR, ceilings
could form late tonight and have included these at KMAF then. A cold
front will move south through area Saturday morning with gusty winds
behind it.  More showers and thunderstorms will form along and
behind the front Saturday, but will likely occur beyond 20/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1041 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016/

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex translating northward over eastern
Coahuila is aiding shower and thunderstorm development over the
Big Bend region this morning, with additional showers and storms
forming over the western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos under a moist mid level shear axis. Expect
widespread convection to persist over the Big Bend region into the
Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. Will send an update to increase
PoPs over these areas and lower temperatures this afternoon. Will
also add isolated storms over southeast New Mexico and the rest of
the Permian Basin since visible satellite imagery is indicating
cumulus already developing in these areas. The rest of the
forecast looks fine, so an update will follow shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  71  88  68 /  30  20  50  40
Carlsbad                       94  69  88  67 /  20  10  30  30
Dryden                         84  72  92  72 /  60  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  88  69  90  66 /  30  10  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 89  65  82  61 /  20  10  30  30
Hobbs                          90  65  83  62 /  20  20  40  30
Marfa                          83  58  85  57 /  40  20  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           91  70  88  67 /  20  10  40  30
Odessa                         92  70  88  67 /  20  10  40  30
Wink                           95  71  92  69 /  20  10  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
745
FXUS64 KMAF 191541
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1041 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to increase PoPs and adjust high temperatures this
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex translating northward over eastern
Coahuila is aiding shower and thunderstorm development over the Big
Bend region this morning, with additional showers and storms forming
over the western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos under a moist mid level shear axis.  Expect widespread
convection to persist over the Big Bend region into the Lower Trans
Pecos this afternoon.  Will send an update to increase PoPs over
these areas and lower temperatures this afternoon.  Will also add
isolated storms over southeast New Mexico and the rest of the
Permian Basin since visible satellite imagery is indicating cumulus
already developing in these areas.  The rest of the forecast looks
fine, so an update will follow shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  71  88  68 /  30  20  50  40
Carlsbad                       94  69  88  67 /  20  10  30  30
Dryden                         84  72  92  72 /  60  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  88  69  90  66 /  30  10  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 89  65  82  61 /  20  10  30  30
Hobbs                          90  65  83  62 /  20  20  40  30
Marfa                          83  58  85  57 /  40  20  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           91  70  88  67 /  20  10  40  30
Odessa                         92  70  88  67 /  20  10  40  30
Wink                           95  71  92  69 /  20  10  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
431
FXUS64 KMAF 190903
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
403 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Persistence and latest models suggest stratus will redevelop
around sunrise, resulting in a few hours IFR cigs at KMAF, and a
couple of hours MVFR redevelopment near the end of the forecast
period. Otherwise, all terminals should remain VFR next 24 hours.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning,
w/bases 2.5-4.5 kft agl. Most convection looks to remain east of
the terminals.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Aside from a few showers across the Lower Trans Pecos, it has been
a quiet night across the area. The region will remain under the
influence of two main features today - a ridge over the
southeastern CONUS and a potent upper trough (for this time of
year) which will continue to develop southward over the Northern
Plains. These features, as well as southeasterly surface flow,
will keep moisture elevated across the area, with precipitable
water values ranging from about 1.0 to 1.75 inches. The upper
shear axis will shift eastward today, focusing the best chance of
thunderstorms from the Western Low Rolling Plains southwestward
through the Lower Trans Pecos and into the Big Bend Area, where
additional lift ahead of a weak disturbance progged to lift
northeastward out of Mexico could enhance convection. Shear
remains relatively minimal, and given the high precipitable water
values, locally heavy rain continues to be the primary threat.
Localized flooding concerns may also exist, especially over areas
that have received rainfall over the past couple of days.
Temperatures today will warm a couple of degrees over yesterday`s
highs, particularly through the Trans Pecos and western/central
portions of the Permian Basin, where highs in the low to middle
90s are possible. Highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected
elsewhere, mainly due to expected rain and cloudcover.

Model guidances continues to be in good agreement regarding a cold
front that will push southward through the area on Saturday, as
the aforementioned Northern Plains upper trough deepens and moves
eastward toward the Great Lakes. Current timing has the front
edging into northern zones by midday Saturday, and slowly
progressing south of the Pecos River by Saturday evening. Given
the timing of the front, northern portions of the forecast area on
Saturday may struggle to warm out of the low to middle 80s, while
locations south will still likely reach the upper 80s to lower
90s. Also, given the ample moisture that will remain in place,
have maintained chance PoPs areawide this weekend due to
convergence along the southward moving frontal boundary as well as
weak perturbations progged to move over the area in southwesterly
flow aloft. Temperatures Sunday in the wake of the front will be
well below normal, with highs in the 80s for much of the area, and
even some upper 70s possible for the higher terrain. Below normal
temperatures and rain chances will persist into next week, as
another weak trough is progged to develop over the Desert
Southwest and move toward the region. Models diverge somewhat on
the handling of the evolution of this feature beyond midweek next
week, thus have not deviated much from the blended model solution
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  71  88  68 /  30  20  50  40
Carlsbad                       94  69  88  67 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         89  72  92  72 /  50  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  90  69  90  66 /  30  10  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 89  65  82  61 /  20  10  30  30
Hobbs                          90  65  83  62 /  10  20  40  30
Marfa                          83  58  85  57 /  40  20  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           92  70  88  67 /  20  10  40  30
Odessa                         91  70  88  67 /  20  10  40  30
Wink                           95  71  92  69 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44
373
FXUS64 KMAF 190900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Aside from a few showers across the Lower Trans Pecos, it has been
a quiet night across the area. The region will remain under the
influence of two main features today - a ridge over the
southeastern CONUS and a potent upper trough (for this time of
year) which will continue to develop southward over the Northern
Plains. These features, as well as southeasterly surface flow,
will keep moisture elevated across the area, with precipitable
water values ranging from about 1.0 to 1.75 inches. The upper
shear axis will shift eastward today, focusing the best chance of
thunderstorms from the Western Low Rolling Plains southwestward
through the Lower Trans Pecos and into the Big Bend Area, where
additional lift ahead of a weak disturbance progged to lift
northeastward out of Mexico could enhance convection. Shear
remains relatively minimal, and given the high precipitable water
values, locally heavy rain continues to be the primary threat.
Localized flooding concerns may also exist, especially over areas
that have received rainfall over the past couple of days.
Temperatures today will warm a couple of degrees over yesterday`s
highs, particularly through the Trans Pecos and western/central
portions of the Permian Basin, where highs in the low to middle
90s are possible. Highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected
elsewhere, mainly due to expected rain and cloudcover.

Model guidances continues to be in good agreement regarding a cold
front that will push southward through the area on Saturday, as
the aforementioned Northern Plains upper trough deepens and moves
eastward toward the Great Lakes. Current timing has the front
edging into northern zones by midday Saturday, and slowly
progressing south of the Pecos River by Saturday evening. Given
the timing of the front, northern portions of the forecast area on
Saturday may struggle to warm out of the low to middle 80s, while
locations south will still likely reach the upper 80s to lower
90s. Also, given the ample moisture that will remain in place,
have maintained chance PoPs areawide this weekend due to
convergence along the southward moving frontal boundary as well as
weak perturbations progged to move over the area in southwesterly
flow aloft. Temperatures Sunday in the wake of the front will be
well below normal, with highs in the 80s for much of the area, and
even some upper 70s possible for the higher terrain. Below normal
temperatures and rain chances will persist into next week, as
another weak trough is progged to develop over the Desert
Southwest and move toward the region. Models diverge somewhat on
the handling of the evolution of this feature beyond midweek next
week, thus have not deviated much from the blended model solution
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  71  88  68 /  30  20  50  40
Carlsbad                       94  69  88  67 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         89  72  92  72 /  50  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  90  69  90  66 /  30  10  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 89  65  82  61 /  20  10  30  30
Hobbs                          90  65  83  62 /  10  20  40  30
Marfa                          83  58  85  57 /  40  20  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           92  70  88  67 /  20  10  40  30
Odessa                         91  70  88  67 /  20  10  40  30
Wink                           95  71  92  69 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84
353
FXUS64 KMAF 190536
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Persistence and latest models suggest stratus will redevelop
around sunrise, resulting in a few hours IFR at KMAF. Otherwise,
all terminals should remain VFR next 24 hours. Forecast soundings
develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases 2.4-4 kft
agl.  Most convection looks to remain east of the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Low clouds with MVR ceilings at KMAF and IFR ceilings at KHOB are
expected toward 12z Friday and will continue through late Friday
morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
the next 24 hours. Confidence was not high enough to mention any
precipitation with obstructions at any of the terminals. Will
continue to monitor however. Winds will generally be south to
southeast at 5 to 15 mph with some occasional higher gusts.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Plentiful moisture will continue to stream over the southeastern
half of the forecast area the next couple of days, in between an
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and an expanding upper
trough over the northern/central U.S. Plains.  A sheared Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) over the Lower Trans Pecos will aid shower
and thunderstorm development this afternoon before this feature
translates northeastward out of the region tonight around the
western fringe of the ua ridge.  Precipitable water (PWat) will be 2-
2.5 inches above normal over the southeastern half or so of the
forecast area, so heavy rainfall/ localized flash flooding could
occur with the stronger storms this afternoon and tonight.  Another
MCV over Chihuahua/Durango could translate northeastward over the
area Friday, so will keep a chance of rain these areas, with
isolated elsewhere.  Westerly flow aloft will increase somewhat
tonight/Friday as the above mentioned ua trough deepens somewhat.
This will allow temperatures to warm a bit closer to normal, except
over the southeastern third of the forecast area where rain/ cloud
cover should be more pronounced.

A cold front is progged to move south into the area Saturday in the
wake of the eastbound central Plains ua trough.  Since plenty of
moisture will still be over the region, will continue with chance
PoPs most areas Saturday and Saturday night, especially since one or
two weak mid level perturbations are indicated to meander over the
region.  The degree of cooling behind the front is still up in the
air, so locations along and west of the Pecos River could still be
pretty warm Saturday afternoon.  The surface ridge should build in
sufficiently Sunday to drop all locations below normal.  Chance PoPs
will continue areawide on Sunday as good moisture and weak upper
troughiness remains over the region.  Another ua trough will head
for the area Monday via the southwest ConUS, and keep rain chances
going through mid next week along with below normal temperatures.
Model solutions diverge thereafter, so we could see rain chances
continue, or a warmup under a strengthening ua ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  71  89  68 /  30  20  50  40
Carlsbad                       94  69  90  65 /  10  10  40  30
Dryden                         89  72  92  71 /  40  20  40  50
Fort Stockton                  89  69  92  66 /  20  10  40  50
Guadalupe Pass                 89  65  84  61 /  10  10  30  40
Hobbs                          90  65  86  62 /  10  20  40  40
Marfa                          84  58  86  56 /  30  20  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           92  70  89  67 /  20  10  40  40
Odessa                         91  70  89  67 /  20  10  40  40
Wink                           95  72  92  68 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44
527
FXUS64 KMAF 182311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds with MVR ceilings at KMAF and IFR ceilings at KHOB are
expected toward 12z Friday and will continue through late Friday
morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
the next 24 hours. Confidence was not high enough to mention any
precipitation with obstructions at any of the terminals. Will
continue to monitor however. Winds will generally be south to
southeast at 5 to 15 mph with some occasional higher gusts.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Plentiful moisture will continue to stream over the southeastern
half of the forecast area the next couple of days, in between an
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and an expanding upper
trough over the northern/central U.S. Plains.  A sheared Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) over the Lower Trans Pecos will aid shower
and thunderstorm development this afternoon before this feature
translates northeastward out of the region tonight around the
western fringe of the ua ridge.  Precipitable water (PWat) will be 2-
2.5 inches above normal over the southeastern half or so of the
forecast area, so heavy rainfall/ localized flash flooding could
occur with the stronger storms this afternoon and tonight.  Another
MCV over Chihuahua/Durango could translate northeastward over the
area Friday, so will keep a chance of rain these areas, with
isolated elsewhere.  Westerly flow aloft will increase somewhat
tonight/Friday as the above mentioned ua trough deepens somewhat.
This will allow temperatures to warm a bit closer to normal, except
over the southeastern third of the forecast area where rain/ cloud
cover should be more pronounced.

A cold front is progged to move south into the area Saturday in the
wake of the eastbound central Plains ua trough.  Since plenty of
moisture will still be over the region, will continue with chance
PoPs most areas Saturday and Saturday night, especially since one or
two weak mid level perturbations are indicated to meander over the
region.  The degree of cooling behind the front is still up in the
air, so locations along and west of the Pecos River could still be
pretty warm Saturday afternoon.  The surface ridge should build in
sufficiently Sunday to drop all locations below normal.  Chance PoPs
will continue areawide on Sunday as good moisture and weak upper
troughiness remains over the region.  Another ua trough will head
for the area Monday via the southwest ConUS, and keep rain chances
going through mid next week along with below normal temperatures.
Model solutions diverge thereafter, so we could see rain chances
continue, or a warmup under a strengthening ua ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  71  89 /  30  30  20  50
Carlsbad                       66  94  69  90 /  10  10  10  40
Dryden                         72  89  72  92 /  50  40  20  40
Fort Stockton                  67  89  69  92 /  30  20  10  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  89  65  84 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                          65  90  65  86 /  10  10  20  40
Marfa                          57  84  58  86 /  30  30  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           70  92  70  89 /  20  20  10  40
Odessa                         70  91  70  89 /  20  20  10  40
Wink                           69  95  72  92 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/27
161
FXUS64 KMAF 181907
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Plentiful moisture will continue to stream over the southeastern
half of the forecast area the next couple of days, in between an
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and an expanding upper
trough over the northern/central U.S. Plains.  A sheared Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) over the Lower Trans Pecos will aid shower
and thunderstorm development this afternoon before this feature
translates northeastward out of the region tonight around the
western fringe of the ua ridge.  Precipitable water (PWat) will be 2-
2.5 inches above normal over the southeastern half or so of the
forecast area, so heavy rainfall/ localized flash flooding could
occur with the stronger storms this afternoon and tonight.  Another
MCV over Chihuahua/Durango could translate northeastward over the
area Friday, so will keep a chance of rain these areas, with
isolated elsewhere.  Westerly flow aloft will increase somewhat
tonight/Friday as the above mentioned ua trough deepens somewhat.
This will allow temperatures to warm a bit closer to normal, except
over the southeastern third of the forecast area where rain/ cloud
cover should be more pronounced.

A cold front is progged to move south into the area Saturday in the
wake of the eastbound central Plains ua trough.  Since plenty of
moisture will still be over the region, will continue with chance
PoPs most areas Saturday and Saturday night, especially since one or
two weak mid level perturbations are indicated to meander over the
region.  The degree of cooling behind the front is still up in the
air, so locations along and west of the Pecos River could still be
pretty warm Saturday afternoon.  The surface ridge should build in
sufficiently Sunday to drop all locations below normal.  Chance PoPs
will continue areawide on Sunday as good moisture and weak upper
troughiness remains over the region.  Another ua trough will head
for the area Monday via the southwest ConUS, and keep rain chances
going through mid next week along with below normal temperatures.
Model solutions diverge thereafter, so we could see rain chances
continue, or a warmup under a strengthening ua ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  71  89 /  30  30  20  50
Carlsbad                       66  94  69  90 /  10  10  10  40
Dryden                         72  89  72  92 /  50  40  20  40
Fort Stockton                  67  89  69  92 /  30  20  10  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  89  65  84 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                          65  90  65  86 /  10  10  20  40
Marfa                          57  84  58  86 /  30  30  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           70  92  70  89 /  20  20  10  40
Odessa                         70  91  70  89 /  20  20  10  40
Wink                           69  95  72  92 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/27
718
FXUS64 KMAF 181732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18z aviation discussion below

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR conditions for the rest of the afternoon with S to SE winds
around 5-15 mph and a few higher gusts. Lightning could occur at
some sites, but not confident enough to mention any TS and will
choose to amend if needed. MVFR/IFR conditions will return to most
TAF sites overnight around 06Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An area of rainfall has persisted across the Stockton Plateau and
Big Bend Area overnight, corresponding with continued moisture
return and enhanced lift under a midlevel trough. Most of the area
today, with the exception of higher terrain to the west, will see
dewpoints well into the 60s, with temperatures expected to range
from around 80 degrees to around 90 degrees, several degrees
cooler than yesterday due to increased moisture and cloudcover.
Given the continued presence of the midlevel trough and ample low
and midlevel moisture, thunderstorm chances will expand
northwestward this afternoon, with the best chance of storms
roughly along and east of a line extending from near Hobbs to
north of Van Horn. Precipitable water values this afternoon will
climb to around 1 inch west to around 2 inches across southeastern
zones, which is roughly 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year per GEFS and NAEFS anomalies. Thus, the
primary threat with storms today and into tonight will be locally
heavy rainfall, which could result in localized flash flooding.
Flooding concerns will increase over areas that have received
recent rainfall, as well as any locations where cell training
occurs. While a few storms may become strong, shear is minimal,
thus severe weather is not expected.

A lull in precipitation is expected for much of the area on Friday
as the instability axis shifts to the east, focusing rain
chances over southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures Friday will also rebound several degrees, but should
still remain below normal. Model guidance has come into better
agreement regarding the front that is expected to move through the
area this weekend, with solutions indicating the front will move
into the northern Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico Plains
by early Saturday afternoon, and progress south of the Pecos
River by Saturday evening. Thunderstorm chances will increase with
the front as moisture will remain entrenched over the area, with
locally heavy rainfall continuing to be the primary concern.
Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler, with highs
Sunday only expected to be in the 70s and 80s. The cooler weather
looks to stick around through midweek next week, with only a slow
moderation in temperatures expected. Rain chances will also linger
into next week, supported by subtle disturbances in the
southwesterly flow aloft as well as a weak low and associated
subtle vorticity maxima progged to move north across eastern zones
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  71  89 /  30  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       66  94  69  90 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                         72  89  72  92 /  50  40  20  40
Fort Stockton                  67  89  69  92 /  30  20  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 64  89  65  84 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                          65  90  65  86 /  10  10  20  40
Marfa                          57  84  58  86 /  30  30  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           70  92  70  89 /  20  20  10  40
Odessa                         70  91  70  89 /  20  20  10  40
Wink                           69  95  72  92 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/82
731
FXUS64 KMAF 181127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs are being masked by higher clouds on satellite, but they
are in the area...albeit patchy...from MAF to HOB. They will be
around until around 15Z then will lift as rain showers develop.
Sporadic lightning will occur but will not be enough to mention TS
in present wx of the TAFs. -SHRA will end this evening and MVFR
CIGs should return to most terminals again tonight around 06Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An area of rainfall has persisted across the Stockton Plateau and
Big Bend Area overnight, corresponding with continued moisture
return and enhanced lift under a midlevel trough. Most of the area
today, with the exception of higher terrain to the west, will see
dewpoints well into the 60s, with temperatures expected to range
from around 80 degrees to around 90 degrees, several degrees
cooler than yesterday due to increased moisture and cloudcover.
Given the continued presence of the midlevel trough and ample low
and midlevel moisture, thunderstorm chances will expand
northwestward this afternoon, with the best chance of storms
roughly along and east of a line extending from near Hobbs to
north of Van Horn. Precipitable water values this afternoon will
climb to around 1 inch west to around 2 inches across southeastern
zones, which is roughly 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year per GEFS and NAEFS anomalies. Thus, the
primary threat with storms today and into tonight will be locally
heavy rainfall, which could result in localized flash flooding.
Flooding concerns will increase over areas that have received
recent rainfall, as well as any locations where cell training
occurs. While a few storms may become strong, shear is minimal,
thus severe weather is not expected.

A lull in precipitation is expected for much of the area on Friday
as the instability axis shifts to the east, focusing rain
chances over southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures Friday will also rebound several degrees, but should
still remain below normal. Model guidance has come into better
agreement regarding the front that is expected to move through the
area this weekend, with solutions indicating the front will move
into the northern Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico Plains
by early Saturday afternoon, and progress south of the Pecos
River by Saturday evening. Thunderstorm chances will increase with
the front as moisture will remain entrenched over the area, with
locally heavy rainfall continuing to be the primary concern.
Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler, with highs
Sunday only expected to be in the 70s and 80s. The cooler weather
looks to stick around through midweek next week, with only a slow
moderation in temperatures expected. Rain chances will also linger
into next week, supported by subtle disturbances in the
southwesterly flow aloft as well as a weak low and associated
subtle vorticity maxima progged to move north across eastern zones
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  72  90  71 /  50  30  30  20
Carlsbad                       91  66  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         86  72  89  72 /  60  50  40  20
Fort Stockton                  83  67  89  69 /  50  30  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 83  64  89  65 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          86  65  90  65 /  20  10  10  20
Marfa                          79  57  84  58 /  50  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           85  70  92  70 /  50  20  20  10
Odessa                         85  70  91  70 /  40  20  20  10
Wink                           89  69  95  72 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
262
FXUS64 KMAF 180908
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An area of rainfall has persisted across the Stockton Plateau and
Big Bend Area overnight, corresponding with continued moisture
return and enhanced lift under a midlevel trough. Most of the area
today, with the exception of higher terrain to the west, will see
dewpoints well into the 60s, with temperatures expected to range
from around 80 degrees to around 90 degrees, several degrees
cooler than yesterday due to increased moisture and cloudcover.
Given the continued presence of the midlevel trough and ample low
and midlevel moisture, thunderstorm chances will expand
northwestward this afternoon, with the best chance of storms
roughly along and east of a line extending from near Hobbs to
north of Van Horn. Precipitable water values this afternoon will
climb to around 1 inch west to around 2 inches across southeastern
zones, which is roughly 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year per GEFS and NAEFS anomalies. Thus, the
primary threat with storms today and into tonight will be locally
heavy rainfall, which could result in localized flash flooding.
Flooding concerns will increase over areas that have received
recent rainfall, as well as any locations where cell training
occurs. While a few storms may become strong, shear is minimal,
thus severe weather is not expected.

A lull in precipitation is expected for much of the area on Friday
as the instability axis shifts to the east, focusing rain
chances over southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures Friday will also rebound several degrees, but should
still remain below normal. Model guidance has come into better
agreement regarding the front that is expected to move through the
area this weekend, with solutions indicating the front will move
into the northern Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico Plains
by early Saturday afternoon, and progress south of the Pecos
River by Saturday evening. Thunderstorm chances will increase with
the front as moisture will remain entrenched over the area, with
locally heavy rainfall continuing to be the primary concern.
Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler, with highs
Sunday only expected to be in the 70s and 80s. The cooler weather
looks to stick around through midweek next week, with only a slow
moderation in temperatures expected. Rain chances will also linger
into next week, supported by subtle disturbances in the
southwesterly flow aloft as well as a weak low and associated
subtle vorticity maxima progged to move north across eastern zones
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  72  90  71 /  50  30  30  20
Carlsbad                       91  66  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         86  72  89  72 /  60  50  40  20
Fort Stockton                  83  67  89  69 /  50  30  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 83  64  89  65 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          86  65  90  65 /  20  10  10  20
Marfa                          79  57  84  58 /  50  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           85  70  92  70 /  50  20  20  10
Odessa                         85  70  91  70 /  40  20  20  10
Wink                           89  69  95  72 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/84
207
FXUS64 KMAF 180531
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1231 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Still expected MVFR/IFR CIGs to arrive before 12Z at most TAF
locations with the lowest CIGs at MAF coming in below BKN010.
Rain currently south of I-10 will move north not diminishing
until 21-00Z. The rain will break up the lower CIGs with VFR
conditions expected all locations by 16Z. Lightning will be
isolated so will not mention TS at this time but will amend to add
TS if needed.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A mid level trough, that has been hanging out just east of the
forecast area the last few days, continues to slowly edge westward
today as upper ridging over the SE ConUS builds into SE TX. In
addition, moisture has been steadily increasing from the SE with
current dewpoints a good 10-15 degrees higher than 24 hours ago
across much of west TX. As a result of increased moisture, lift
and instability, showers and thunderstorms continue to affect
portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and SE Permian Basin this
afternoon. Best chance for rain will be along and SE of a Snyder
to Big Bend line through tonight then spread NW Thursday. Not
completely certain on how far west the upper trough axis will
shift by tomorrow but for now, best chances look to be along and
east of a Hobbs to Van Horn line. Locally heavy rainfall will be
of some concern as PWs increase to the 1.5-2" range across the
southeast overnight tonight. Cloud cover and increased
moisture/rain chances are expected to hold high temperatures in
the 80s across most locations today and Thursday.

Moisture will remain in place Friday and Saturday however the upper
shear axis looks to shift back to the east. As such, rain chances
shift to across the SE zones through Saturday morning. Temperatures
may have a chance to warm up into the 90s Friday, ahead of a cold
front that could arrive as early as Saturday afternoon, returning
cooler temps and rain to the forecast area. Models have not been
very consistent with the timing of this front, making for a tricky
temperature and precip forecast for Saturday. Previous model runs
had the front arriving late Saturday/early Sunday but latest runs
show it arriving midday Saturday. I like the faster scenario given
the expected upper pattern so will forecast the front to push
through Saturday afternoon. Have lowered high temps and increased
PoPs for Saturday. Decent rain chances continue into Sunday and
Monday with high temperatures only warming into the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  90  71  90 /  30  30  10  40
Carlsbad                       67  94  68  92 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                         72  89  72  91 /  40  40  20  30
Fort Stockton                  69  90  69  93 /  20  20  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 65  88  66  85 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                          65  90  66  88 /  10  10  20  40
Marfa                          61  83  60  86 /  30  30  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           70  91  70  91 /  20  20  10  40
Odessa                         70  91  71  91 /  20  20  10  40
Wink                           69  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
181
FXUS64 KMAF 172354
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
654 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Storms are mainly confined to our southeast this evening. Low
clouds will develop later tonight and will likely move across the
Permian Basin and possibly further west. Have kept mention of
storms out of the TAFs for later tonight and Thursday due to
uncertainty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A mid level trough, that has been hanging out just east of the
forecast area the last few days, continues to slowly edge westward
today as upper ridging over the SE ConUS builds into SE TX. In
addition, moisture has been steadily increasing from the SE with
current dewpoints a good 10-15 degrees higher than 24 hours ago
across much of west TX. As a result of increased moisture, lift
and instability, showers and thunderstorms continue to affect
portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and SE Permian Basin this
afternoon. Best chance for rain will be along and SE of a Snyder
to Big Bend line through tonight then spread NW Thursday. Not
completely certain on how far west the upper trough axis will
shift by tomorrow but for now, best chances look to be along and
east of a Hobbs to Van Horn line. Locally heavy rainfall will be
of some concern as PWs increase to the 1.5-2" range across the
southeast overnight tonight. Cloud cover and increased
moisture/rain chances are expected to hold high temperatures in
the 80s across most locations today and Thursday.

Moisture will remain in place Friday and Saturday however the upper
shear axis looks to shift back to the east. As such, rain chances
shift to across the SE zones through Saturday morning. Temperatures
may have a chance to warm up into the 90s Friday, ahead of a cold
front that could arrive as early as Saturday afternoon, returning
cooler temps and rain to the forecast area. Models have not been
very consistent with the timing of this front, making for a tricky
temperature and precip forecast for Saturday. Previous model runs
had the front arriving late Saturday/early Sunday but latest runs
show it arriving midday Saturday. I like the faster scenario given
the expected upper pattern so will forecast the front to push
through Saturday afternoon. Have lowered high temps and increased
PoPs for Saturday. Decent rain chances continue into Sunday and
Monday with high temperatures only warming into the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  86  71  90 /  40  50  30  30
Carlsbad                       65  91  67  94 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  87  72  89 /  50  50  40  40
Fort Stockton                  68  85  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  84  65  88 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          64  86  65  90 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                          61  80  61  83 /  30  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           69  85  70  91 /  30  40  20  20
Odessa                         69  85  70  91 /  30  40  20  20
Wink                           70  89  69  95 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/99/
272
FXUS64 KMAF 171944
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
244 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A mid level trough, that has been hanging out just east of the
forecast area the last few days, continues to slowly edge westward
today as upper ridging over the SE ConUS builds into SE TX. In
addition, moisture has been steadily increasing from the SE with
current dewpoints a good 10-15 degrees higher than 24 hours ago
across much of west TX. As a result of increased moisture, lift
and instability, showers and thunderstorms continue to affect
portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and SE Permian Basin this
afternoon. Best chance for rain will be along and SE of a Snyder
to Big Bend line through tonight then spread NW Thursday. Not
completely certain on how far west the upper trough axis will
shift by tomorrow but for now, best chances look to be along and
east of a Hobbs to Van Horn line. Locally heavy rainfall will be
of some concern as PWs increase to the 1.5-2" range across the
southeast overnight tonight. Cloud cover and increased
moisture/rain chances are expected to hold high temperatures in
the 80s across most locations today and Thursday.

Moisture will remain in place Friday and Saturday however the upper
shear axis looks to shift back to the east. As such, rain chances
shift to across the SE zones through Saturday morning. Temperatures
may have a chance to warm up into the 90s Friday, ahead of a cold
front that could arrive as early as Saturday afternoon, returning
cooler temps and rain to the forecast area. Models have not been
very consistent with the timing of this front, making for a tricky
temperature and precip forecast for Saturday. Previous model runs
had the front arriving late Saturday/early Sunday but latest runs
show it arriving midday Saturday. I like the faster scenario given
the expected upper pattern so will forecast the front to push
through Saturday afternoon. Have lowered high temps and increased
PoPs for Saturday. Decent rain chances continue into Sunday and
Monday with high temperatures only warming into the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  86  71  90 /  40  50  30  30
Carlsbad                       65  91  67  94 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  87  72  89 /  50  50  40  40
Fort Stockton                  68  85  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  84  65  88 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          64  86  65  90 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                          61  80  61  83 /  30  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           69  85  70  91 /  30  40  20  20
Odessa                         69  85  70  91 /  30  40  20  20
Wink                           70  89  69  95 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/27
586
FXUS64 KMAF 171732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 17/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low stratus burned off recently south and east of KMAF, and MOGR
CU is going up over these locations, with widespread -SHRA moving
north and a little west. Right now we`re only confident that KFST
and KMAF will see some -SHRA activity; the rest of the terminals
look a bit too dry aloft. Next question is stratus formation
toward sunrise. At this time am only confident at KMAF, although
KFST, KINK, and KHOB could see redevelopment as well. Time will
tell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  69  85  71 /  20  30  50  30
Carlsbad                       91  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         89  74  88  72 /  40  50  50  30
Fort Stockton                  87  67  85  67 /  30  30  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 83  64  84  64 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          88  63  87  64 /  10  10  20  10
Marfa                          82  58  81  57 /  20  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           90  68  85  69 /  20  30  40  20
Odessa                         90  69  85  69 /  20  20  40  20
Wink                           92  70  89  68 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/70/27

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