Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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611
FXUS64 KMAF 221640
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1140 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Southeast winds of 10 to 15
mph and gusty are expected through early this evening before
diminishing to generally less than 10 mph overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 518 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under upper-level
ridging and in relatively weak SE sfc flow. Buffer soundings
suggest convective temps will be reached all terminals
KCNM/KFST/KHOB/KINK by late morning, spawning a cu field w/bases
3.5-4 kft agl. Cu will be possible by early afternoon KMAF/KPEQ,
w/bases 8-9 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 513 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Upper ridging is beginning to develop over the region resulting in
westerly flow aloft.  This will keep thunderstorm chances today
mostly confined to the higher terrain.  Temperatures today will be
similar to yesterday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to the
mid 80s across most of the area.

An upper low moving over northern Mexico will approach the region
and allow for continuing rain and storm chances into Saturday.  The
best chances of precipitation will be across the Big Bend area
closest to the upper low.  Temperatures Saturday will warm up a
little from today.  The upper low will pass to the east of the
region on Sunday allowing for decreasing rain chances.  Temperatures
on Sunday will warm up even more as a surface trough strengthens
across the area with southwesterly winds contributing to downslope
warming.  Conditions will warm up and dry out even further on
Monday.  After Monday, temperatures will gradually cool to near
normal by the end of the week.  Precipitation chances will increase
beginning next Thursday as another upper trough approaches the
region from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  83  61  88 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       56  87  57  87 /  10  20  20   0
Dryden                         62  83  63  89 /  10  20  30  10
Fort Stockton                  58  87  62  89 /  10  20  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 54  79  55  79 /  20  20  20   0
Hobbs                          53  84  55  83 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          48  76  49  80 /  20  30  20   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  85  61  89 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                         56  85  61  89 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                           58  88  61  92 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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