Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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625
FXUS64 KMAF 242337
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
637 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to continue at all terminals through Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance across south Texas will track toward
the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this evening and bring those
areas a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening.

Beyond this evening the weather will be quiet across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico Friday through Sunday due to a healthy
upper level ridge centered across the southern Rockies and
southern High Plains. Temperatures will continue to be above
normal in this pattern through the weekend. By late Sunday a
developing upper level trough across the Great Lakes and northeast
states will send a cold front south toward the forecast area. At
this time the ECMWF guidance is most bullish pushing the front
into the area with some precipitation. This could be reasonable
given the amount of convection that the consensus guidance is
developing along and behind the front next week. For now did not
yet want to jump all in on the ECMWF scenario but did increase
pops especially across the north Monday through Thursday and did
mention isolated thunderstorms in a few locations in the north in
a few of the periods. Later shifts will obviously need to monitor.

Trended high temperatures next week close to climatological
normals with the possibility of the front moving in.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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