Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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079
FXUS64 KMAF 201105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated areas of low clouds and fog will continue to impact the
area until about 15z.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the area this afternoon and evening with MAF and HOB having
the best chances of experiencing convection.  Winds will generally
be out of the south and west today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014/

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show lingering SHRA over the SE Permian Basin, and these
should be east of the CWA in another hour or so.  Last night`s
convection was the most widespread event West Texas/SE NM has seen
in some time.  KMAF set a new record rainfall for the day (0.45")
and up to 1.29" was reported, at Terlingua.  MPE came in w/event
totals as high as 1.95", w/highest estimates from the Davis Mtns
south.

WV imagery shows the upper trough currently over NE NM, and forecast
to move slowly thru the panhandles today.  Sfc obs show moisture
backed up well into the mtns, w/dewpoints on nearly 50F or better
thru KELP.  This will begin mixing east after sunrise as SW-W flow
picks up out west.  However, return flow remains weak, and the
dryline will remain relatively diffuse.  Redevelopment along this
feature is anticipated later today, especially if residual
convective cloud cover clears out, as it appears to be doing on
satellite.  By this afternoon, best 0-6km layer shear will be over
the Lwr Trans Pecos, which will be under the right rear quadrant of
the upper jet, all favoring supercell development.  However,
yesterday`s threat was large hail, and both NAM and GFS forecast
soundings for KCNM, SNK, and K6R6 show very similar temp profiles to
yesterday`s 00Z RAOB for KMAF.  W/this in mind, a severe threat will
exist w/any convection that develops, mainly large hail.  This
activity should taper off to the NE this evening as the upper trough
continues moving E thru OK.

Otherwise, temps warm to well-abv normal Monday despite models
bringing a weak front into the area.  An upper ridge then builds
into the region, resulting in temps about 2 cats above normal into
the extended.  By midweek, the ridge is forecast to move off to the
east as an upper trough traverses the U.S./Canadian border.
Wednesday, leeside sfc troughing will induce westerly flow over the
mtns, and this looks to be the next critical fire wx day, mainly
west of the Pecos.  To the east, a dryline is forecast to sharpen
up, w/models initiating convection along this feature Wednesday
afternoon.  Models then bring a weak cold front thru Wednesday night
behind the dryline, but this looks to have negligible affect on
temps Thursday.  Forecast then remains dry thru the rest of the
extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  59  86  59  /  20  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              81  61  85  57  /  40  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                80  52  83  58  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  90  63  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  58  89  61  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  60  76  57  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   77  52  83  54  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   77  45  79  49  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  59  88  58  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  81  60  88  60  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    84  57  90  58  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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