Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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878
FXUS64 KMAF 280938
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
438 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will back today as return flow surges NW into West Texas.
Latest sfc analysis puts the dryline along the eastern fringes of
the CWA, and this should begin moving back into the area
w/strengthening flow, first thru KFST, then KMAF, then KINK/KPEQ.
Convective temps will be reached behind the dryline as it moves
NW, resulting in high-based cu 8-13 kft agl. A 40+kt LLJ is
forecast to develop near the end of the forecast period, ushering
in a stratus deck after 06Z. Buffer soundings suggest a few hours
of LIFR cigs at KFST, IFR at KHOB/KINK, and MVFR at KMAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Central Plains with another upper trough
developing just off the southern coast of California.  The area is
under westerly flow aloft with a dryline expected this afternoon
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.  There is a
chance of storms across this area beginning this afternoon.  Due to
good CAPE, bulk shear, and lapse rates, some of the storms today
could become strong to severe.  Upper lift is expected to increase
this evening into tonight, so strong to severe storms will be more
likely then.  Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be
slightly warmer than yesterday but still near normal values.

Rain and storm chances increase across the area on Sunday as the
dryline moves back toward the western Permian Basin.  Temperatures
are also expected to cool to slightly below normal with an increase
in moisture and cloud cover.  Similar to today, the storm parameters
look good but upper lift will be lacking until Sunday evening
allowing for another chance of strong to severe storms Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night.  Storm chances continue into Monday
with the dryline backed up to the Upper Trans Pecos.  Temperatures
are expected to be near normal for Monday with highs ranging from
the mid 80s to mid 90s across the CWA except the Big Bend and Rio
Grande Valley areas.  Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday
except the dryline will likely be further east into the Permian
Basin.  Precipitation chances increase for Wednesday as an upper
trough moves over the Midwest.  Temperatures on Wednesday are
expected to cool into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the Permian
Basin.  Temperatures will remain below normal into next weekend with
a chance of precipitation in the forecast every day through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  40
Carlsbad                       92  61  93  60 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         91  73  88  71 /  20  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  93  69  91  68 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 87  61  87  63 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          91  63  86  63 /   0  20  40  20
Marfa                          87  51  87  54 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  30
Odessa                         93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  30
Wink                           94  69  93  68 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
948
FXUS64 KMAF 280923
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
423 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Central Plains with another upper trough
developing just off the southern coast of California.  The area is
under westerly flow aloft with a dryline expected this afternoon
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.  There is a
chance of storms across this area beginning this afternoon.  Due to
good CAPE, bulk shear, and lapse rates, some of the storms today
could become strong to severe.  Upper lift is expected to increase
this evening into tonight, so strong to severe storms will be more
likely then.  Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be
slightly warmer than yesterday but still near normal values.

Rain and storm chances increase across the area on Sunday as the
dryline moves back toward the western Permian Basin.  Temperatures
are also expected to cool to slightly below normal with an increase
in moisture and cloud cover.  Similar to today, the storm parameters
look good but upper lift will be lacking until Sunday evening
allowing for another chance of strong to severe storms Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night.  Storm chances continue into Monday
with the dryline backed up to the Upper Trans Pecos.  Temperatures
are expected to be near normal for Monday with highs ranging from
the mid 80s to mid 90s across the CWA except the Big Bend and Rio
Grande Valley areas.  Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday
except the dryline will likely be further east into the Permian
Basin.  Precipitation chances increase for Wednesday as an upper
trough moves over the Midwest.  Temperatures on Wednesday are
expected to cool into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the Permian
Basin.  Temperatures will remain below normal into next weekend with
a chance of precipitation in the forecast every day through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  40
Carlsbad                       92  61  93  60 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         91  73  88  71 /  20  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  93  69  91  68 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 87  61  87  63 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          91  63  86  63 /   0  20  40  20
Marfa                          87  51  87  54 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  30
Odessa                         93  67  87  68 /  10  30  40  30
Wink                           94  69  93  68 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80
189
FXUS64 KMAF 280526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will back today as return flow surges NW into West Texas.
Latest sfc analysis puts the dryline just east of the CWA, and
this should begin moving back into the area w/strengthening flow,
first thru KFST, then KMAF, then KINK/KPEQ. Convective temps will
be reached behind the dryline as it moves NW, resulting in high-
based cu 10-14 kft agl. A 40+kt LLJ is forecast to develop near
the end of the forecast period, but any resulting stratus
advection should occur after 06Z Sunday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The dryline has pushed east into west central Texas today giving
us our first day without convection anywhere in our area in a
while. You could feel the dry air this morning with low
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s, down from the upper 60s and
70s seen the past several days. Relative humidities this
afternoon are generally down in the teens but fortunately winds
are remaining light, preventing critical fire weather conditions
from developing.

An upper low will deepen over the west coast Saturday causing
pressure falls in the Rockies and pulling the dryline back west
into the Permian Basin. An upper ridge axis over west Texas will
prevent anything other than isolated to widely scattered
convection from developing, though shear values will be high
enough to allow one or two storms to be severe. Sunday the ridge
axis shifts east and the dryline pushes farther west...that
combined with a weak shortwave trough moving across the area and
we should see an increase in convection and potentially severe
storms. Storms will remain in the forecast through the middle of
the week due to slow easterly movement of the west coast low and
again there will be a chance for a few storms to become severe
each day. The low will finally move east of the area by Thursday
or Friday pushing dry air into the western Permian Basin and
keeping rain chances mainly in the eastern Permian Basin and
lower Trans Pecos.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  65  87  65 /  10  20  40  40
Carlsbad                       94  62  97  64 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         93  69  91  70 /  20  20  40  20
Fort Stockton                  95  68  95  69 /  10  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          92  63  88  62 /   0  10  40  20
Marfa                          88  51  89  56 /   0   0  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           95  68  90  69 /  10  20  40  30
Odessa                         95  68  91  69 /  10  20  40  30
Wink                           96  69  96  68 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
406
FXUS64 KMAF 272256
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
556 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all area terminals. Currently have gusty
westerly winds across the region this evening under sunny skies.
Gusts will subside over the next hour or two and back to the SW,
remaining below 10kt overnight. Otherwise, S/SE winds expected
Saturday with elevated gusts at MAF and FST through the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The dryline has pushed east into west central Texas today giving
us our first day without convection anywhere in our area in a
while. You could feel the dry air this morning with low
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s, down from the upper 60s and
70s seen the past several days. Relative humidities this
afternoon are generally down in the teens but fortunately winds
are remaining light, preventing critical fire weather conditions
from developing.

An upper low will deepen over the west coast Saturday causing
pressure falls in the Rockies and pulling the dryline back west
into the Permian Basin. An upper ridge axis over west Texas will
prevent anything other than isolated to widely scattered
convection from developing, though shear values will be high
enough to allow one or two storms to be severe. Sunday the ridge
axis shifts east and the dryline pushes farther west...that
combined with a weak shortwave trough moving across the area and
we should see an increase in convection and potentially severe
storms. Storms will remain in the forecast through the middle of
the week due to slow easterly movement of the west coast low and
again there will be a chance for a few storms to become severe
each day. The low will finally move east of the area by Thursday
or Friday pushing dry air into the western Permian Basin and
keeping rain chances mainly in the eastern Permian Basin and
lower Trans Pecos.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  94  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       56  94  62  97 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         65  93  69  91 /   0  20  20  40
Fort Stockton                  61  95  68  95 /   0  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 59  85  60  89 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          54  92  63  88 /   0   0  10  40
Marfa                          49  88  51  89 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           58  95  68  90 /   0  10  20  40
Odessa                         60  95  68  91 /   0  10  20  40
Wink                           56  96  69  96 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
390
FXUS64 KMAF 271901
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
201 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The dryline has pushed east into west central Texas today giving
us our first day without convection anywhere in our area in a
while. You could feel the dry air this morning with low
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s, down from the upper 60s and
70s seen the past several days. Relative humidities this
afternoon are generally down in the teens but fortunately winds
are remaining light, preventing critical fire weather conditions
from developing.

An upper low will deepen over the west coast Saturday causing
pressure falls in the Rockies and pulling the dryline back west
into the Permian Basin. An upper ridge axis over west Texas will
prevent anything other than isolated to widely scattered
convection from developing, though shear values will be high
enough to allow one or two storms to be severe. Sunday the ridge
axis shifts east and the dryline pushes farther west...that
combined with a weak shortwave trough moving across the area and
we should see an increase in convection and potentially severe
storms. Storms will remain in the forecast through the middle of
the week due to slow easterly movement of the west coast low and
again there will be a chance for a few storms to become severe
each day. The low will finally move east of the area by Thursday
or Friday pushing dry air into the western Permian Basin and
keeping rain chances mainly in the eastern Permian Basin and
lower Trans Pecos.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  94  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       56  94  62  97 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         65  93  69  91 /   0  20  20  40
Fort Stockton                  61  95  68  95 /   0  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 59  85  60  89 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          54  92  63  88 /   0   0  10  40
Marfa                          49  88  51  89 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           58  95  68  90 /   0  10  20  40
Odessa                         60  95  68  91 /   0  10  20  40
Wink                           56  96  69  96 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10
021
FXUS64 KMAF 271641
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1141 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under clear skies. Winds this
afternoon will be west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty. Winds overnight
will generally become southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis
shows the dryline passing east thru KMAF and, according to the
models, will remain east of all terminals for the duration of the
forecast. Dry westerly flow can be expected today, w/convective
temps too high for cu development.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is beginning to pass over the central conus.
The dryline is across the Western Low Rolling Plains and far eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with the thunderstorms east of
the CWA. The dryline will push east of the area by this afternoon
with west to southwest winds behind it.  Temperatures are expected
to be a little bit cooler today as height falls occur over the area.
Decided to stay on the warm side of guidance since guidance has been
too cool lately.

An active weather pattern is in store from Saturday through the end
of the forecast.  Various shortwaves and upper troughs will impact
the region keeping a chance of rain and thunderstorms in the
forecast.  The models are not in good agreement on the placement of
the rain through most of the forecast but it seems the best chances
will be across the northern and eastern sections of the CWA.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal through the
weekend but will cool to below normal next week.  A cold front will
move through the area on Wednesday cooling temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the area heading into late next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  60  94  68 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       90  55  94  61 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         96  64  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  94  60  94  68 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          87  53  92  65 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          83  42  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           94  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         93  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  57  97  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80
242
FXUS64 KMAF 270919
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
419 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Lastest sfc analysis
shows the dryline passing east thru KMAF and, according to the
models, will remain east of all terminals for the duration of the
forecast.  Dry westerly flow can be expected today, w/convective
temps too high for cu development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is beginning to pass over the central conus.
The dryline is across the Western Low Rolling Plains and far eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with the thunderstorms east of
the CWA. The dryline will push east of the area by this afternoon
with west to southwest winds behind it.  Temperatures are expected
to be a little bit cooler today as height falls occur over the area.
Decided to stay on the warm side of guidance since guidance has been
too cool lately.

An active weather pattern is in store from Saturday through the end
of the forecast.  Various shortwaves and upper troughs will impact
the region keeping a chance of rain and thunderstorms in the
forecast.  The models are not in good agreement on the placement of
the rain through most of the forecast but it seems the best chances
will be across the northern and eastern sections of the CWA.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal through the
weekend but will cool to below normal next week.  A cold front will
move through the area on Wednesday cooling temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the area heading into late next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  60  94  68 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       90  55  94  61 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         96  64  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  94  60  94  68 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          87  53  92  65 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          83  42  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           94  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         93  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  57  97  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
344
FXUS64 KMAF 270915
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
415 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is beginning to pass over the central conus.
The dryline is across the Western Low Rolling Plains and far eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with the thunderstorms east of
the CWA. The dryline will push east of the area by this afternoon
with west to southwest winds behind it.  Temperatures are expected
to be a little bit cooler today as height falls occur over the area.
Decided to stay on the warm side of guidance since guidance has been
too cool lately.

An active weather pattern is in store from Saturday through the end
of the forecast.  Various shortwaves and upper troughs will impact
the region keeping a chance of rain and thunderstorms in the
forecast.  The models are not in good agreement on the placement of
the rain through most of the forecast but it seems the best chances
will be across the northern and eastern sections of the CWA.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal through the
weekend but will cool to below normal next week.  A cold front will
move through the area on Wednesday cooling temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the area heading into late next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  60  94  68 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       90  55  94  61 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         96  64  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  94  60  94  68 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 82  56  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          87  53  92  65 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          83  42  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           94  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         93  60  95  68 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  57  97  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80
458
FXUS64 KMAF 270526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Lastest sfc analysis
shows the dryline just west of KMAF and, according to the models,
this will be the farthest it retreats before westerlies kick in
and shunt it east of all terminals over the next few hours. Dry
westerly flow can be expected today, w/convective temps too high
for cu development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all area terminals. Currently have gusty
westerly winds across the region this evening with main areas of
convection remaining east of terminals. Gusts will subside over the
next couple of hours and remain aob 10kt overnight. Otherwise, gusty
west winds return mid morning Friday and persist through the
afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The upper low responsible for the active weather pattern over the
past several days continues to meander eastward today, currently
located near the Arizona/New Mexico state line. The dryline has
again advanced to the east, similarly positioned to yesterday with
the dryline extending from just east of Gail and Big Spring
southwestward through Pecos and Brewster counties. Under the
influence of continued southwest flow and downslope warming,
temperatures are on track to climb above normal into the mid to
upper 80s across higher terrain and 90s to near 100 degrees across
lower elevations. Due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions,
critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue into
this evening across portions of the area, and a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below
for further details.

A few high-based storms have begun to develop this afternoon over
higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Area and
northeastward into the Trans Pecos in the vicinity of the dryline.
Currently, these storms are not severe, though the potential for
severe storms will increase this afternoon and evening. An
unstable moist air mass exists just to the east of the dryline,
where CAPE values quickly increase to upwards of 3000 J/kg. The
greatest probability for severe weather will be along and to the
east of the dryline this afternoon and evening, across the far
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. 700-500mb lapse rates
will be 7-8C/km, and 0-6km shear will increase to 40-50kt through
this evening, allowing for organized convection. At this time,
large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary threats,
along with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However,
given increasing low-level shear through the evening hours, an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additional strong
storms are possible through this evening across the higher terrain
of the Big Bend Area and Davis Mountains northeastward to the
northern Permian Basin, where gusty wind, hail, and brief heavy
rain are possible.

Storm chances increase across the eastern half of the area
overnight as the aforementioned low finally ejects toward the
central plains, with the trough axis and associated Pacific front
moving through the area late tonight/early Friday morning. The
front is expected to interact with the retreating dryline,
increasing convergence and maintaining strong to severe storms
well into the overnight hours, especially across the Western Low
Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. By
Friday morning, storms should be east of the area, with dry
conditions and slightly cooler, near normal temperatures expected
across the area on Friday afternoon under quasi-zonal flow
aloft.

On Saturday, moisture return will allow for thunderstorm chances
to return to the Lower Trans Pecos, with slightly warmer
temperatures expected areawide. An active pattern then looks to
begin Sunday as the dryline redevelops over the area and backs up
against the higher terrain to the west, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Models
are in agreement regarding the potential for multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and lasting until at
least midweek next week, though given less dynamic support,
convection will be contingent on dryline location as well as the
timing of multiple shortwaves that look to traverse the area in
the southwest flow aloft. Given increased moisture as well as
expected cloudcover and precipitation, high temperatures from
Sunday onward look to be near to slightly below normal, with above
normal overnight lows.

FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry air will remain for virtually the entire area through
Saturday. An upper trough currently bringing windy conditions west
of the Pecos River will move east tonight allowing winds to
subside Friday and Saturday so despite the very dry air,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected. There will be a
low potential for dry lightning (mainly in the Davis Mountains)
though isolated storm coverage will be a limiting factor. Light
winds Friday and Saturday could provide an opportunity for
controlled burning. Sunday the dryline will retreat west
increasing moisture levels and providing a good chance for showers
with the highest rain chances in the east and decreasing farther
west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  60  91  68 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       89  55  93  61 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         96  64  91  72 /  10  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  90  60  93  68 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 80  57  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          86  54  91  62 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          81  41  88  50 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  60  94  67 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         91  60  94  67 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           92  57  95  68 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
778
FXUS64 KMAF 262321
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all area terminals. Currently have gusty
westerly winds across the region this evening with main areas of
convection remaining east of terminals. Gusts will subside over the
next couple of hours and remain aob 10kt overnight. Otherwise, gusty
west winds return mid morning Friday and persist through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The upper low responsible for the active weather pattern over the
past several days continues to meander eastward today, currently
located near the Arizona/New Mexico state line. The dryline has
again advanced to the east, similarly positioned to yesterday with
the dryline extending from just east of Gail and Big Spring
southwestward through Pecos and Brewster counties. Under the
influence of continued southwest flow and downslope warming,
temperatures are on track to climb above normal into the mid to
upper 80s across higher terrain and 90s to near 100 degrees across
lower elevations. Due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions,
critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue into
this evening across portions of the area, and a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below
for further details.

A few high-based storms have begun to develop this afternoon over
higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Area and
northeastward into the Trans Pecos in the vicinity of the dryline.
Currently, these storms are not severe, though the potential for
severe storms will increase this afternoon and evening. An
unstable moist air mass exists just to the east of the dryline,
where CAPE values quickly increase to upwards of 3000 J/kg. The
greatest probability for severe weather will be along and to the
east of the dryline this afternoon and evening, across the far
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. 700-500mb lapse rates
will be 7-8C/km, and 0-6km shear will increase to 40-50kt through
this evening, allowing for organized convection. At this time,
large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary threats,
along with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However,
given increasing low-level shear through the evening hours, an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additional strong
storms are possible through this evening across the higher terrain
of the Big Bend Area and Davis Mountains northeastward to the
northern Permian Basin, where gusty wind, hail, and brief heavy
rain are possible.

Storm chances increase across the eastern half of the area
overnight as the aforementioned low finally ejects toward the
central plains, with the trough axis and associated Pacific front
moving through the area late tonight/early Friday morning. The
front is expected to interact with the retreating dryline,
increasing convergence and maintaining strong to severe storms
well into the overnight hours, especially across the Western Low
Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. By
Friday morning, storms should be east of the area, with dry
conditions and slightly cooler, near normal temperatures expected
across the area on Friday afternoon under quasi-zonal flow
aloft.

On Saturday, moisture return will allow for thunderstorm chances
to return to the Lower Trans Pecos, with slightly warmer
temperatures expected areawide. An active pattern then looks to
begin Sunday as the dryline redevelops over the area and backs up
against the higher terrain to the west, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Models
are in agreement regarding the potential for multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and lasting until at
least midweek next week, though given less dynamic support,
convection will be contingent on dryline location as well as the
timing of multiple shortwaves that look to traverse the area in
the southwest flow aloft. Given increased moisture as well as
expected cloudcover and precipitation, high temperatures from
Sunday onward look to be near to slightly below normal, with above
normal overnight lows.

FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry air will remain for virtually the entire area through
Saturday. An upper trough currently bringing windy conditions west
of the Pecos River will move east tonight allowing winds to
subside Friday and Saturday so despite the very dry air,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected. There will be a
low potential for dry lightning (mainly in the Davis Mountains)
though isolated storm coverage will be a limiting factor. Light
winds Friday and Saturday could provide an opportunity for
controlled burning. Sunday the dryline will retreat west
increasing moisture levels and providing a good chance for showers
with the highest rain chances in the east and decreasing farther
west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  90  60  91 /  50  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       56  89  55  93 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  96  64  91 /  30  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  62  90  60  93 /  30   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  86  54  91 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  81  41  88 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  92  60  94 /  30   0   0  10
Odessa                         62  91  60  94 /  30   0   0  10
Wink                           57  92  57  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

27/72/
422
FXUS64 KMAF 261947
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The upper low responsible for the active weather pattern over the
past several days continues to meander eastward today, currently
located near the Arizona/New Mexico state line. The dryline has
again advanced to the east, similarly positioned to yesterday with
the dryline extending from just east of Gail and Big Spring
southwestward through Pecos and Brewster counties. Under the
influence of continued southwest flow and downslope warming,
temperatures are on track to climb above normal into the mid to
upper 80s across higher terrain and 90s to near 100 degrees across
lower elevations. Due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions,
critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue into
this evening across portions of the area, and a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below
for further details.

A few high-based storms have begun to develop this afternoon over
higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Area and
northeastward into the Trans Pecos in the vicinity of the dryline.
Currently, these storms are not severe, though the potential for
severe storms will increase this afternoon and evening. An
unstable moist air mass exists just to the east of the dryline,
where CAPE values quickly increase to upwards of 3000 J/kg. The
greatest probability for severe weather will be along and to the
east of the dryline this afternoon and evening, across the far
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. 700-500mb lapse rates
will be 7-8C/km, and 0-6km shear will increase to 40-50kt through
this evening, allowing for organized convection. At this time,
large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary threats,
along with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However,
given increasing low-level shear through the evening hours, an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additional strong
storms are possible through this evening across the higher terrain
of the Big Bend Area and Davis Mountains northeastward to the
northern Permian Basin, where gusty wind, hail, and brief heavy
rain are possible.

Storm chances increase across the eastern half of the area
overnight as the aforementioned low finally ejects toward the
central plains, with the trough axis and associated Pacific front
moving through the area late tonight/early Friday morning. The
front is expected to interact with the retreating dryline,
increasing convergence and maintaining strong to severe storms
well into the overnight hours, especially across the Western Low
Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. By
Friday morning, storms should be east of the area, with dry
conditions and slightly cooler, near normal temperatures expected
across the area on Friday afternoon under quasi-zonal flow
aloft.

On Saturday, moisture return will allow for thunderstorm chances
to return to the Lower Trans Pecos, with slightly warmer
temperatures expected areawide. An active pattern then looks to
begin Sunday as the dryline redevelops over the area and backs up
against the higher terrain to the west, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Models
are in agreement regarding the potential for multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and lasting until at
least midweek next week, though given less dynamic support,
convection will be contingent on dryline location as well as the
timing of multiple shortwaves that look to traverse the area in
the southwest flow aloft. Given increased moisture as well as
expected cloudcover and precipitation, high temperatures from
Sunday onward look to be near to slightly below normal, with above
normal overnight lows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry air will remain for virtually the entire area through
Saturday. An upper trough currently bringing windy conditions west
of the Pecos River will move east tonight allowing winds to
subside Friday and Saturday so despite the very dry air,
critical fire weather conditions are not expected. There will be a
low potential for dry lightning (mainly in the Davis Mountains)
though isolated storm coverage will be a limiting factor. Light
winds Friday and Saturday could provide an opportunity for
controlled burning. Sunday the dryline will retreat west
increasing moisture levels and providing a good chance for showers
with the highest rain chances in the east and decreasing farther
west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  90  60  91 /  50  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       56  89  55  93 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  96  64  91 /  30  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  62  90  60  93 /  30   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  86  54  91 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  81  41  88 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  92  60  94 /  30   0   0  10
Odessa                         62  91  60  94 /  30   0   0  10
Wink                           57  92  57  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

10/84
845
FXUS64 KMAF 261726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty west winds will subside around 02Z this evening, eventually
shifting from the southeast at MAF/INK/HOB with a retreating
dryline. Gusty west winds return tomorrow. VFR conditions
expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A few showers remain across the area this morning with the severe
thunderstorms now east of the CWA.  An upper trough is over Arizona
putting the area under southwest flow aloft.  The upper trough will
progress closer to the region today with the dryline expected to be
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin this
afternoon.  The dryline will move back towards the western Permian
Basin this evening into the overnight period.  Good CAPE, bulk
shear, mid-level lapse rates, and upper lift will be over the area
this evening so severe weather is again possible later this
afternoon into the overnight hours tonight.  The best chance of
storms and severe weather will be across the Lower Trans Pecos,
eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday and closer
to normal values.  Winds this afternoon are expected to get strong
in the Guadalupe Mountains and may briefly hit high wind criteria in
Guadalupe Pass.  Do not think that the rest of the Guadalupe
Mountains will experience high wind criteria so did not issue any
high wind products.  Critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across many locations west of the dryline.  See the Fire
Weather discussion below for additional information.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Friday and the
dryline is expected to move to the east of the CWA during the
afternoon.  Another upper trough will develop over southern
California on Saturday and the dryline will once again be across the
Lower Trans Pecos and very far eastern Permian Basin during the
afternoon.  This will allow for thunderstorm chances across the far
eastern CWA.  The dryline is expected to move back west toward the
Upper Trans Pecos on Sunday allowing for increased storm chances for
locations east of the higher terrain.  This increase in
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for temperatures on Sunday
to be slightly below normal.  Conditions will not change much for
Monday except that the dryline will move east over the Permian Basin
during the afternoon.  The extended forecast looks to be fairly
similar as well with a continued chance of rain and storms across
the eastern half of the CWA and temperatures that are near or
slightly below normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

One more day in what has been a series of critical fire wx days
across parts of the west. A trough passing to the n will result in
stronger mid level winds (25-30kts@7h). Also there`s a consistent
signal in MOS/model surface winds of 20-30 mph, except higher in the
favored areas of the GDP Mtns where 25 to 40 mph is expected. Also
we have opted to include the far NW PB and from Van Horn area into
the Davis Mtns and Marfa areas and have upgrade to a RFW. It will be
cooler today, but there is still very dry air in place and the
dryline will push out into the central PB. A complicating factor
will be the potential for dry lightning from the Davis Mtns into the
Big Bend region later this afternoon. Haines indices will fall back
into 5 moderate, possibly 4 across the Davis Mtns/Big Bend depending
on mid level moisture. Even though it will be dry Friday critical
fire wx conditions will abate with less wind. The pattern of less
winds will persist thru Sunday across the west, but warm to hot.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  90  60 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  53  89  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         95  67  95  63 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  96  59  91  58 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  55  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  82  43 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           97  61  90  58 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         96  61  90  58 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           96  55  91  56 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/10
569
FXUS64 KMAF 261726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty west winds will subside around 02Z this evening, eventually
shifting from the southeast at MAF/INK/HOB with a retreating
dryline. Gusty west winds return tomorrow. VFR conditions
expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A few showers remain across the area this morning with the severe
thunderstorms now east of the CWA.  An upper trough is over Arizona
putting the area under southwest flow aloft.  The upper trough will
progress closer to the region today with the dryline expected to be
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin this
afternoon.  The dryline will move back towards the western Permian
Basin this evening into the overnight period.  Good CAPE, bulk
shear, mid-level lapse rates, and upper lift will be over the area
this evening so severe weather is again possible later this
afternoon into the overnight hours tonight.  The best chance of
storms and severe weather will be across the Lower Trans Pecos,
eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday and closer
to normal values.  Winds this afternoon are expected to get strong
in the Guadalupe Mountains and may briefly hit high wind criteria in
Guadalupe Pass.  Do not think that the rest of the Guadalupe
Mountains will experience high wind criteria so did not issue any
high wind products.  Critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across many locations west of the dryline.  See the Fire
Weather discussion below for additional information.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Friday and the
dryline is expected to move to the east of the CWA during the
afternoon.  Another upper trough will develop over southern
California on Saturday and the dryline will once again be across the
Lower Trans Pecos and very far eastern Permian Basin during the
afternoon.  This will allow for thunderstorm chances across the far
eastern CWA.  The dryline is expected to move back west toward the
Upper Trans Pecos on Sunday allowing for increased storm chances for
locations east of the higher terrain.  This increase in
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for temperatures on Sunday
to be slightly below normal.  Conditions will not change much for
Monday except that the dryline will move east over the Permian Basin
during the afternoon.  The extended forecast looks to be fairly
similar as well with a continued chance of rain and storms across
the eastern half of the CWA and temperatures that are near or
slightly below normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

One more day in what has been a series of critical fire wx days
across parts of the west. A trough passing to the n will result in
stronger mid level winds (25-30kts@7h). Also there`s a consistent
signal in MOS/model surface winds of 20-30 mph, except higher in the
favored areas of the GDP Mtns where 25 to 40 mph is expected. Also
we have opted to include the far NW PB and from Van Horn area into
the Davis Mtns and Marfa areas and have upgrade to a RFW. It will be
cooler today, but there is still very dry air in place and the
dryline will push out into the central PB. A complicating factor
will be the potential for dry lightning from the Davis Mtns into the
Big Bend region later this afternoon. Haines indices will fall back
into 5 moderate, possibly 4 across the Davis Mtns/Big Bend depending
on mid level moisture. Even though it will be dry Friday critical
fire wx conditions will abate with less wind. The pattern of less
winds will persist thru Sunday across the west, but warm to hot.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  90  60 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  53  89  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         95  67  95  63 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  96  59  91  58 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  55  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  82  43 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           97  61  90  58 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         96  61  90  58 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           96  55  91  56 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/10
831
FXUS64 KMAF 261126
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Clouds have cleared from TAF sites with some light fog in the
HOB area. SW winds, albeit light, have already developed and this
will be the idea for the day as dryline moves e of MAF by 18Z.
Mid level winds are stronger today as a trough passes to the
north and as such windy conditions are expected, especially
CNM/HOB. Also water vapor does show some waves so there will
likely be turbulence INVOF mtns today. Models are fairly
consistent keeping precip just e of MAF/FST late PM and as such
have opted to keep low probability TSRA out of the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A few showers remain across the area this morning with the severe
thunderstorms now east of the CWA.  An upper trough is over Arizona
putting the area under southwest flow aloft.  The upper trough will
progress closer to the region today with the dryline expected to be
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin this
afternoon.  The dryline will move back towards the western Permian
Basin this evening into the overnight period.  Good CAPE, bulk
shear, mid-level lapse rates, and upper lift will be over the area
this evening so severe weather is again possible later this
afternoon into the overnight hours tonight.  The best chance of
storms and severe weather will be across the Lower Trans Pecos,
eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday and closer
to normal values.  Winds this afternoon are expected to get strong
in the Guadalupe Mountains and may briefly hit high wind criteria in
Guadalupe Pass.  Do not think that the rest of the Guadalupe
Mountains will experience high wind criteria so did not issue any
high wind products.  Critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across many locations west of the dryline.  See the Fire
Weather discussion below for additional information.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Friday and the
dryline is expected to move to the east of the CWA during the
afternoon.  Another upper trough will develop over southern
California on Saturday and the dryline will once again be across the
Lower Trans Pecos and very far eastern Permian Basin during the
afternoon.  This will allow for thunderstorm chances across the far
eastern CWA.  The dryline is expected to move back west toward the
Upper Trans Pecos on Sunday allowing for increased storm chances for
locations east of the higher terrain.  This increase in
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for temperatures on Sunday
to be slightly below normal.  Conditions will not change much for
Monday except that the dryline will move east over the Permian Basin
during the afternoon.  The extended forecast looks to be fairly
similar as well with a continued chance of rain and storms across
the eastern half of the CWA and temperatures that are near or
slightly below normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

One more day in what has been a series of critical fire wx days
across parts of the west. A trough passing to the n will result in
stronger mid level winds (25-30kts@7h). Also there`s a consistent
signal in MOS/model surface winds of 20-30 mph, except higher in the
favored areas of the GDP Mtns where 25 to 40 mph is expected. Also
we have opted to include the far NW PB and from Van Horn area into
the Davis Mtns and Marfa areas and have upgrade to a RFW. It will be
cooler today, but there is still very dry air in place and the
dryline will push out into the central PB. A complicating factor
will be the potential for dry lightning from the Davis Mtns into the
Big Bend region later this afternoon. Haines indices will fall back
into 5 moderate, possibly 4 across the Davis Mtns/Big Bend depending
on mid level moisture. Even though it will be dry Friday critical
fire wx conditions will abate with less wind. The pattern of less
winds will persist thru Sunday across the west, but warm to hot.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  90  60 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  53  89  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         93  67  95  63 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  93  59  91  58 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          88  55  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  82  43 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  61  90  58 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         93  61  90  58 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           94  55  91  56 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
928
FXUS64 KMAF 260929
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
429 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A few showers remain across the area this morning with the severe
thunderstorms now east of the CWA.  An upper trough is over Arizona
putting the area under southwest flow aloft.  The upper trough will
progress closer to the region today with the dryline expected to be
across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin this
afternoon.  The dryline will move back towards the western Permian
Basin this evening into the overnight period.  Good CAPE, bulk
shear, mid-level lapse rates, and upper lift will be over the area
this evening so severe weather is again possible later this
afternoon into the overnight hours tonight.  The best chance of
storms and severe weather will be across the Lower Trans Pecos,
eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Temperatures
this afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday and closer
to normal values.  Winds this afternoon are expected to get strong
in the Guadalupe Mountains and may briefly hit high wind criteria in
Guadalupe Pass.  Do not think that the rest of the Guadalupe
Mountains will experience high wind criteria so did not issue any
high wind products.  Critical fire weather conditions are expected
today across many locations west of the dryline.  See the Fire
Weather discussion below for additional information.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Friday and the
dryline is expected to move to the east of the CWA during the
afternoon.  Another upper trough will develop over southern
California on Saturday and the dryline will once again be across the
Lower Trans Pecos and very far eastern Permian Basin during the
afternoon.  This will allow for thunderstorm chances across the far
eastern CWA.  The dryline is expected to move back west toward the
Upper Trans Pecos on Sunday allowing for increased storm chances for
locations east of the higher terrain.  This increase in
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for temperatures on Sunday
to be slightly below normal.  Conditions will not change much for
Monday except that the dryline will move east over the Permian Basin
during the afternoon.  The extended forecast looks to be fairly
similar as well with a continued chance of rain and storms across
the eastern half of the CWA and temperatures that are near or
slightly below normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

One more day in what has been a series of critical fire wx days
across parts of the west. A trough passing to the n will result in
stronger mid level winds (25-30kts@7h). Also there`s a consistent
signal in MOS/model surface winds of 20-30 mph, except higher in the
favored areas of the GDP Mtns where 25 to 40 mph is expected. Also
we have opted to include the far NW PB and from Van Horn area into
the Davis Mtns and Marfa areas and have upgrade to a RFW. It will be
cooler today, but there is still very dry air in place and the
dryline will push out into the central PB. A complicating factor
will be the potential for dry lightning from the Davis Mtns into the
Big Bend region later this afternoon. Haines indices will fall back
into 5 moderate, possibly 4 across the Davis Mtns/Big Bend depending
on mid level moisture. Even though it will be dry Friday critical
fire wx conditions will abate with less wind. The pattern of less
winds will persist thru Sunday across the west, but warm to hot.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  90  60 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  53  89  54 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         93  67  95  63 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  93  59  91  58 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          88  55  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  82  43 /  10  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  61  90  58 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         93  61  90  58 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           94  55  91  56 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

49/80
835
FXUS64 KMAF 260658
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
158 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers in PEQ are decreasing and tstms concerns are decreasing
across the MAF/FST areas so no mention in TAFs. Most concern will
be winds across CNM/HOB later today when SW-W winds increase to
20-25kts. TSRA may be needed at MAF/FST after 21Z, but too low of
a probability to included ATTP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 558 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. An upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico is expected to produce isolated
thunderstorms across the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos region
this evening. Confidence was not high enough to mention at
KFST or any of the other terminals. Winds will become southeast
at 15 to 25 mph and gusty at KMAF, KINK, and KFST near sunset.
Winds should diminish and become south at 10 to 15 mph at these
locations by 06z to 09z Thursday. Winds will increase to 15 to
25 mph and gusty at all the terminals by mid to late Thursday
morning and continue Thursday afternoon.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Another warm, dry, and breezy day today with moisture largely
confined to far eastern portions of the area ahead of the
advancing dryline. Per latest observations, the dryline has
moved east of Snyder and extends south to near Sterling City
before curving back to the west through eastern Pecos and Brewster
counties. The dryline is not expected to advance east of the Lower
Trans Pecos, thus there is a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon across Terrell county along the dryline with a slight
chance further west/northwest where storms could develop off of
higher terrain. Some storms, mainly across Terrell county, could
become strong to severe, capable of producing large hail, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rainfall. To the west, critical fire
weather conditions will persist through this evening across the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains due to the
warm, windy, and dry conditions. See the Fire Weather Discussion
below for details.

Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight as a shortwave moves
across northern Mexico and yields additional forcing as the
dryline begins to retreat to the west. Storm chances tonight are
confined mainly along/south of I-10, with guidance suggesting the
potential for storms to grow upscale into an MCS over the far
Lower Trans Pecos and then quickly advance to the southeast. The
dryline will retreat west to the vicinity of the TX/NM state line
overnight, with near normal low temperatures in the 50s to around
60 degrees expected west of the dryline, and above normal lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s to the east.

On Thursday, height falls will begin to overspread the area ahead
of the advancing trough which will be located near the AZ/NM
state line by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler, though given continued southwest flow, downslope warming,
and deep mixing behind the dryline, have maintained highs above
MOS guidance given the continued trend of models under-forecasting
max temperatures. Thunderstorm chances exist along and ahead of
the dryline late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, mainly
across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and
Lower Trans Pecos. Thunderstorm chances increase overnight
Thursday as the trough begins to eject to the Central Plains and
an accompanying Pacific front moves through the area. Convergence
will be enhanced as the front interacts with the dryline,
resulting in strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, where large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

By Friday, moisture will be shunted to the east of the area with
dry conditions expected across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will be closer to
normal in the mid 80s and 90s, with similar conditions expected
Saturday, albeit slightly warmer and with a few thunderstorms
possible across the Lower Trans Pecos as moisture begins to return
to the region. An active pattern looks to return Sunday as the
dryline redevelops over the area, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday
through at least midweek next week due to multiple shortwaves in
the flow aloft and continued dryline influence, with temperatures
near to just above normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical conditions continue in the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon, and will persist into
this evening before winds subside. Recovery will be poor again
tonight over these same areas with good recovery expected along
and east of a Maljamar to Fort Stockton to Big Bend line. More
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Thursday over the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains. The Van Horn area, Marfa Plateau,
Davis Mountains and portions of the northwest Permian Basin may
need to be added to the Watch, but later shifts will have to make
the final call since winds appear borderline right now. Southwest
winds are expected to increase earlier on Thursday so the start
time of the Fire Weather Watch has been backed up to 26/15Z and
will be in effect until 27/03Z. Temperatures will warm around 10
degrees above normal Thursday afternoon, RH/s will drop to 5 to 10
percent and the Haines Index will be 5 or 6 in these areas also.

Poor recovery will occur again Thursday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Big Bend line. The base of an upper storm system will
move over the region on Friday, and at this time wind speeds do
not appear to be as strong as today or Thursday. Temperatures will
also not be as hot on Friday, but it will still be dry with
minimum afternoon RH/s of 5 to 10 percent expected areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  64  89  62 /  20  50  10  10
Carlsbad                       91  54  89  56 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         94  67  95  64 /  40  40  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  60  91  60 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 81  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          88  53  85  55 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          87  45  81  43 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           95  61  91  60 /  20  30   0   0
Odessa                         94  61  90  61 /  10  30   0   0
Wink                           95  55  93  56 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM MDT this morning through this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning
     through this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
606
FXUS64 KMAF 252258
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
558 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. An upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico is expected to produce isolated
thunderstorms across the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos region
this evening. Confidence was not high enough to mention at
KFST or any of the other terminals. Winds will become southeast
at 15 to 25 mph and gusty at KMAF, KINK, and KFST near sunset.
Winds should diminish and become south at 10 to 15 mph at these
locations by 06z to 09z Thursday. Winds will increase to 15 to
25 mph and gusty at all the terminals by mid to late Thursday
morning and continue Thursday afternoon.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Another warm, dry, and breezy day today with moisture largely
confined to far eastern portions of the area ahead of the
advancing dryline. Per latest observations, the dryline has
moved east of Snyder and extends south to near Sterling City
before curving back to the west through eastern Pecos and Brewster
counties. The dryline is not expected to advance east of the Lower
Trans Pecos, thus there is a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon across Terrell county along the dryline with a slight
chance further west/northwest where storms could develop off of
higher terrain. Some storms, mainly across Terrell county, could
become strong to severe, capable of producing large hail, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rainfall. To the west, critical fire
weather conditions will persist through this evening across the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains due to the
warm, windy, and dry conditions. See the Fire Weather Discussion
below for details.

Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight as a shortwave moves
across northern Mexico and yields additional forcing as the
dryline begins to retreat to the west. Storm chances tonight are
confined mainly along/south of I-10, with guidance suggesting the
potential for storms to grow upscale into an MCS over the far
Lower Trans Pecos and then quickly advance to the southeast. The
dryline will retreat west to the vicinity of the TX/NM state line
overnight, with near normal low temperatures in the 50s to around
60 degrees expected west of the dryline, and above normal lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s to the east.

On Thursday, height falls will begin to overspread the area ahead
of the advancing trough which will be located near the AZ/NM
state line by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler, though given continued southwest flow, downslope warming,
and deep mixing behind the dryline, have maintained highs above
MOS guidance given the continued trend of models under-forecasting
max temperatures. Thunderstorm chances exist along and ahead of
the dryline late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, mainly
across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and
Lower Trans Pecos. Thunderstorm chances increase overnight
Thursday as the trough begins to eject to the Central Plains and
an accompanying Pacific front moves through the area. Convergence
will be enhanced as the front interacts with the dryline,
resulting in strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, where large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

By Friday, moisture will be shunted to the east of the area with
dry conditions expected across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will be closer to
normal in the mid 80s and 90s, with similar conditions expected
Saturday, albeit slightly warmer and with a few thunderstorms
possible across the Lower Trans Pecos as moisture begins to return
to the region. An active pattern looks to return Sunday as the
dryline redevelops over the area, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday
through at least midweek next week due to multiple shortwaves in
the flow aloft and continued dryline influence, with temperatures
near to just above normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical conditions continue in the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon, and will persist into
this evening before winds subside. Recovery will be poor again
tonight over these same areas with good recovery expected along
and east of a Maljamar to Fort Stockton to Big Bend line. More
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Thursday over the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains. The Van Horn area, Marfa Plateau,
Davis Mountains and portions of the northwest Permian Basin may
need to be added to the Watch, but later shifts will have to make
the final call since winds appear borderline right now. Southwest
winds are expected to increase earlier on Thursday so the start
time of the Fire Weather Watch has been backed up to 26/15Z and
will be in effect until 27/03Z. Temperatures will warm around 10
degrees above normal Thursday afternoon, RH/s will drop to 5 to 10
percent and the Haines Index will be 5 or 6 in these areas also.

Poor recovery will occur again Thursday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Big Bend line. The base of an upper storm system will
move over the region on Friday, and at this time wind speeds do
not appear to be as strong as today or Thursday. Temperatures will
also not be as hot on Friday, but it will still be dry with
minimum afternoon RH/s of 5 to 10 percent expected areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  64  89 /  10  20  50  10
Carlsbad                       61  91  54  89 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         73  94  67  95 /  40  40  40  10
Fort Stockton                  67  95  60  91 /  20  20  30   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  81  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  88  53  85 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                          54  87  45  81 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           68  95  61  91 /  10  20  30   0
Odessa                         69  94  61  90 /  10  10  30   0
Wink                           65  95  55  93 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/84
200
FXUS64 KMAF 251951
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Another warm, dry, and breezy day today with moisture largely
confined to far eastern portions of the area ahead of the
advancing dryline. Per latest observations, the dryline has
moved east of Snyder and extends south to near Sterling City
before curving back to the west through eastern Pecos and Brewster
counties. The dryline is not expected to advance east of the Lower
Trans Pecos, thus there is a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon across Terrell county along the dryline with a slight
chance further west/northwest where storms could develop off of
higher terrain. Some storms, mainly across Terrell county, could
become strong to severe, capable of producing large hail, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rainfall. To the west, critical fire
weather conditions will persist through this evening across the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains due to the
warm, windy, and dry conditions. See the Fire Weather Discussion
below for details.

Thunderstorm chances will continue overnight as a shortwave moves
across northern Mexico and yields additional forcing as the
dryline begins to retreat to the west. Storm chances tonight are
confined mainly along/south of I-10, with guidance suggesting the
potential for storms to grow upscale into an MCS over the far
Lower Trans Pecos and then quickly advance to the southeast. The
dryline will retreat west to the vicinity of the TX/NM state line
overnight, with near normal low temperatures in the 50s to around
60 degrees expected west of the dryline, and above normal lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s to the east.

On Thursday, height falls will begin to overspread the area ahead
of the advancing trough which will be located near the AZ/NM
state line by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler, though given continued southwest flow, downslope warming,
and deep mixing behind the dryline, have maintained highs above
MOS guidance given the continued trend of models under-forecasting
max temperatures. Thunderstorm chances exist along and ahead of
the dryline late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, mainly
across the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, and
Lower Trans Pecos. Thunderstorm chances increase overnight
Thursday as the trough begins to eject to the Central Plains and
an accompanying Pacific front moves through the area. Convergence
will be enhanced as the front interacts with the dryline,
resulting in strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, where large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

By Friday, moisture will be shunted to the east of the area with
dry conditions expected across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will be closer to
normal in the mid 80s and 90s, with similar conditions expected
Saturday, albeit slightly warmer and with a few thunderstorms
possible across the Lower Trans Pecos as moisture begins to return
to the region. An active pattern looks to return Sunday as the
dryline redevelops over the area, and flow aloft transitions to
the southwest due to a strengthening western CONUS trough. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday
through at least midweek next week due to multiple shortwaves in
the flow aloft and continued dryline influence, with temperatures
near to just above normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical conditions continue in the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains this afternoon, and will persist into
this evening before winds subside. Recovery will be poor again
tonight over these same areas with good recovery expected along
and east of a Maljamar to Fort Stockton to Big Bend line. More
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Thursday over the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains. The Van Horn area, Marfa Plateau,
Davis Mountains and portions of the northwest Permian Basin may
need to be added to the Watch, but later shifts will have to make
the final call since winds appear borderline right now. Southwest
winds are expected to increase earlier on Thursday so the start
time of the Fire Weather Watch has been backed up to 26/15Z and
will be in effect until 27/03Z. Temperatures will warm around 10
degrees above normal Thursday afternoon, RH/s will drop to 5 to 10
percent and the Haines Index will be 5 or 6 in these areas also.

Poor recovery will occur again Thursday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Big Bend line. The base of an upper storm system will
move over the region on Friday, and at this time wind speeds do
not appear to be as strong as today or Thursday. Temperatures will
also not be as hot on Friday, but it will still be dry with
minimum afternoon RH/s of 5 to 10 percent expected areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  64  89 /  10  20  50  10
Carlsbad                       61  91  54  89 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         73  94  67  95 /  40  40  40  10
Fort Stockton                  67  95  60  91 /  20  20  30   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  81  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  88  53  85 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                          54  87  45  81 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           68  95  61  91 /  10  20  30   0
Odessa                         69  94  61  90 /  10  10  30   0
Wink                           65  95  55  93 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/84
289
FXUS64 KMAF 251639
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1139 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Update to increase high temperatures and adjust PoPs, which will
include the latest Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The dryline is mixing eastward late this morning and expect it to
make it to the eastern fringe of the Permian Basin this afternoon,
but think it will get hung up southwestward across the Lower Trans
Pecos.  High temperatures will likely warm above forecast values due
to westerly downslope winds compressing and warming the air,
especially in areas where rainfall has been scarce lately.  Despite
extensive high cloud over the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos,
temperatures will warm to levels a degree or two higher than
yesterday.  The atmosphere will become very unstable over the Lower
Trans Pecos where dewpoints will stay near 70 F, but instability
will be low farther west through the Big Bend.

There is some darkening on Water Vapor Imagery, which is indicative
a shortwave trough, translating northeastward over the Mexican state
of Chihuahua.  The right rear quadrant of a 100+kt h25 jet will also
be moving over these areas.  Think these factors could aid
thunderstorm development over the Big Bend region through the
afternoon with high based storms capable of gusty winds due to a dry
subcloud layer.  Thunderstorms could also develop over the Lower
Trans Pecos through late afternoon as the cap weakens.  Since shear
is plentiful and lapse rates steep, and considering the unstable
atmosphere there, large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning strikes will be possible with any storms in these
areas.  Think the dryline will move far enough east over the Permian
Basin so will remove PoPs in these areas for this afternoon.  Will
send an update shortly to account for the changes to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at area terminals this afternoon and
tonight.  Southwest winds will remain gusty through the afternoon,
but will decrease this evening.  Thunderstorms could develop near
KFST through 26/00Z, if not KMAF through 26/06Z.  Since probability
is low, will not mention TSRA in this issuance.  Low clouds and fog
will form late tonight and possibly affect KMAF and KHOB though
26/14Z.  Will hold off on adding any lower conditions at either site
since the dryline may begin to move east and keep the lower
conditions east of the terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

An upper level trough is over the western conus with west southwest
flow aloft over the CWA.  The dryline this afternoon is expected to
be across the Lower Trans Pecos and just east of the Permian Basin.
Thunderstorms will be possible across this area today as well as
across the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley with a shortwave
approaching this area.  There is expected to be high CAPE values and
good bulk shear and lapse rates across Terrell County and the Lower
Trans Pecos this afternoon but upper lift may be lacking until a
shortwave moves across this area this evening into the overnight
hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area
beginning late this afternoon into the overnight hours, and SPC has
this area marked in a slight risk.  Temperatures today are expected
to be similar to yesterday with highs above normal.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region on Thursday
with the dryline across the same area as today.  Temperatures on
Thursday are expected to cool to near normal values as a Pacific
front moves into the area.  Thunderstorms will be possible across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos, and southward to the Big Bend area.  The severe parameters
will be good, especially across the Lower Trans Pecos, but the upper
lift will not come until Thursday night.  So storm chances with
possible severe weather will increase Thursday night.

The upper trough will begin moving over the central conus on Friday
with the dryline located to the east of the CWA.  Temperatures on
Friday are expected to be similar to Thursday.  The upper trough
lifts northward over the Northern Plains on Saturday with another
upper trough developing over southern California.  Higher dewpoints
are anticipated over the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County on
Saturday so storm chances will mostly remain confined to this area.
The previously mentioned upper trough broadens across the west
allowing upper lift to remain over the region.  The dryline is
expected to be further west on Sunday so storm chances will be
present across most of the area except the far western CWA.
Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal on Sunday due to
the increase in precipitation and cloud cover.  Similar conditions
are expected for Monday and Tuesday except the dryline will be
slightly more east.  Precipitation chances will again increase on
Wednesday with temperatures staying at or slightly below normal.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx will continue to be focused across the GDP Mtns
and SE NM thru Thursday. Persistent sw flow aloft favors holding a
very warm (12-13C) mid level thermal ridge at 7h in place, even
moreso today. Soundings show mixing to around 5h, thus steep LRs and
this with mid level dry air does favor the HI of at least briefly
hitting a 6 today. Meanwhile this deep mixed layer has an average
wind about 25kts supporting the windy conditions in the GDP Mtns and
breezy for a few hrs in the SE NM Plains today. Single digit RHs are
a forgone conclusion. More of the same Thur except that winds will
be stronger, mixed layer winds closer to 30kts. However mid level
heights will fall and 7h temps will be noticeably cooler so RH/s
will trend a little higher, especially higher elevations from GDP
Mtns down into the Davis Mtns. Still Thur will be another critical
fire wx day, mainly GDP Mtns/SE NM but could go farther s into Van
Horn area and e into the NW PB. For now we will leave headline as a
watch but RF wx looks to be solid GDP Mtns/SE NM. Critical fire wx
conditions will abate on Fri, warm temps will rapidly return Sat in
the mtns. GFS is mostly the lone model suggesting "some" precip
farther w Sat night and Sun, seems unlikely at this point for the
mtns of the Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  71  92  65 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  59  91  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         97  74  92  70 /  30  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                 100  68  94  60 /  20  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 88  58  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          94  60  89  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          89  55  85  46 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  70  91  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                        101  71  91  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                          101  65  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
818
FXUS64 KMAF 251112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS/VSBY have been in and out of KMAF/KHOB, especially since high
clouds are thinning. These MVFR conditions will dissipate by mid
morning, probably before 15Z has the moisture is still pretty
shallow (~85h). The dryline will push e again today with SW-W
winds of 15-20kts in its wake at the TAFS sites. As dryline
retreats this evening s-se winds will increase at MAF/FST/INK/PEQ.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the western conus with west southwest
flow aloft over the CWA.  The dryline this afternoon is expected to
be across the Lower Trans Pecos and just east of the Permian Basin.
Thunderstorms will be possible across this area today as well as
across the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley with a shortwave
approaching this area.  There is expected to be high CAPE values and
good bulk shear and lapse rates across Terrell County and the Lower
Trans Pecos this afternoon but upper lift may be lacking until a
shortwave moves across this area this evening into the overnight
hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area
beginning late this afternoon into the overnight hours, and SPC has
this area marked in a slight risk.  Temperatures today are expected
to be similar to yesterday with highs above normal.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region on Thursday
with the dryline across the same area as today.  Temperatures on
Thursday are expected to cool to near normal values as a Pacific
front moves into the area.  Thunderstorms will be possible across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos, and southward to the Big Bend area.  The severe parameters
will be good, especially across the Lower Trans Pecos, but the upper
lift will not come until Thursday night.  So storm chances with
possible severe weather will increase Thursday night.

The upper trough will begin moving over the central conus on Friday
with the dryline located to the east of the CWA.  Temperatures on
Friday are expected to be similar to Thursday.  The upper trough
lifts northward over the Northern Plains on Saturday with another
upper trough developing over southern California.  Higher dewpoints
are anticipated over the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County on
Saturday so storm chances will mostly remain confined to this area.
The previously mentioned upper trough broadens across the west
allowing upper lift to remain over the region.  The dryline is
expected to be further west on Sunday so storm chances will be
present across most of the area except the far western CWA.
Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal on Sunday due to
the increase in precipitation and cloud cover.  Similar conditions
are expected for Monday and Tuesday except the dryline will be
slightly more east.  Precipitation chances will again increase on
Wednesday with temperatures staying at or slightly below normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx will continue to be focused across the GDP Mtns
and SE NM thru Thursday. Persistent sw flow aloft favors holding a
very warm (12-13C) mid level thermal ridge at 7h in place, even
moreso today. Soundings show mixing to around 5h, thus steep LRs and
this with mid level dry air does favor the HI of at least briefly
hitting a 6 today. Meanwhile this deep mixed layer has an average
wind about 25kts supporting the windy conditions in the GDP Mtns and
breezy for a few hrs in the SE NM Plains today. Single digit RHs are
a forgone conclusion. More of the same Thur except that winds will
be stronger, mixed layer winds closer to 30kts. However mid level
heights will fall and 7h temps will be noticeably cooler so RH/s
will trend a little higher, especially higher elevations from GDP
Mtns down into the Davis Mtns. Still Thur will be another critical
fire wx day, mainly GDP Mtns/SE NM but could go farther s into Van
Horn area and e into the NW PB. For now we will leave headline as a
watch but RF wx looks to be solid GDP Mtns/SE NM. Critical fire wx
conditions will abate on Fri, warm temps will rapidly return Sat in
the mtns. GFS is mostly the lone model suggesting "some" precip
farther w Sat night and Sun, seems unlikely at this point for the
mtns of the Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  71  92  65 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  59  91  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  74  92  70 /  20  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  96  68  94  60 /  20  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 87  58  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  89  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          89  55  85  46 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  70  91  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         98  71  91  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           99  65  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
089
FXUS64 KMAF 250919
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
419 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the western conus with west southwest
flow aloft over the CWA.  The dryline this afternoon is expected to
be across the Lower Trans Pecos and just east of the Permian Basin.
Thunderstorms will be possible across this area today as well as
across the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley with a shortwave
approaching this area.  There is expected to be high CAPE values and
good bulk shear and lapse rates across Terrell County and the Lower
Trans Pecos this afternoon but upper lift may be lacking until a
shortwave moves across this area this evening into the overnight
hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area
beginning late this afternoon into the overnight hours, and SPC has
this area marked in a slight risk.  Temperatures today are expected
to be similar to yesterday with highs above normal.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region on Thursday
with the dryline across the same area as today.  Temperatures on
Thursday are expected to cool to near normal values as a Pacific
front moves into the area.  Thunderstorms will be possible across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos, and southward to the Big Bend area.  The severe parameters
will be good, especially across the Lower Trans Pecos, but the upper
lift will not come until Thursday night.  So storm chances with
possible severe weather will increase Thursday night.

The upper trough will begin moving over the central conus on Friday
with the dryline located to the east of the CWA.  Temperatures on
Friday are expected to be similar to Thursday.  The upper trough
lifts northward over the Northern Plains on Saturday with another
upper trough developing over southern California.  Higher dewpoints
are anticipated over the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County on
Saturday so storm chances will mostly remain confined to this area.
The previously mentioned upper trough broadens across the west
allowing upper lift to remain over the region.  The dryline is
expected to be further west on Sunday so storm chances will be
present across most of the area except the far western CWA.
Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal on Sunday due to
the increase in precipitation and cloud cover.  Similar conditions
are expected for Monday and Tuesday except the dryline will be
slightly more east.  Precipitation chances will again increase on
Wednesday with temperatures staying at or slightly below normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx will continue to be focused across the GDP Mtns
and SE NM thru Thursday. Persistent sw flow aloft favors holding a
very warm (12-13C) mid level thermal ridge at 7h in place, even
moreso today. Soundings show mixing to around 5h, thus steep LRs and
this with mid level dry air does favor the HI of at least briefly
hitting a 6 today. Meanwhile this deep mixed layer has an average
wind about 25kts supporting the windy conditions in the GDP Mtns and
breezy for a few hrs in the SE NM Plains today. Single digit RHs are
a forgone conclusion. More of the same Thur except that winds will
be stronger, mixed layer winds closer to 30kts. However mid level
heights will fall and 7h temps will be noticeably cooler so RH/s
will trend a little higher, especially higher elevations from GDP
Mtns down into the Davis Mtns. Still Thur will be another critical
fire wx day, mainly GDP Mtns/SE NM but could go farther s into Van
Horn area and e into the NW PB. For now we will leave headline as a
watch but RF wx looks to be solid GDP Mtns/SE NM. Critical fire wx
conditions will abate on Fri, warm temps will rapidly return Sat in
the mtns. GFS is mostly the lone model suggesting "some" precip
farther w Sat night and Sun, seems unlikely at this point for the
mtns of the Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  71  92  65 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  59  91  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  74  92  70 /  20  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  96  68  94  60 /  20  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 87  58  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  89  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          89  55  85  46 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  70  91  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         98  71  91  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           99  65  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

49/80
445
FXUS64 KMAF 250516
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
The dryline has returned as far w as KINK and near KHOB. E of
dryline S-SE winds around 15kts are prevailing and they will do
so thru most of the early morning. MVFR CIGS are expect at KMAF
btwn 11Z-14Z. The dryline will then push e again today with SW-W
winds of 15-20kts in its wake at the TAFS sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Dryline slowly moving back to the west with the wind shifting back
around to the south. Gusts have started to drop off as lower wind
speeds expected for this evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs
possible at MAF before sunrise... otherwise VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Very warm, dry, and breezy conditions have overspread much of the
area this afternoon as the dryline has been quicker to push to
the east than previous days. Per current observations and radar
imagery, the dryline extends from just west of Tahoka south
through Lamesa, Stanton, and west of Garden City before curving
back to the west through the Stockton Plateau. The expectation is
for the dryline to continue to move east, with the greatest
potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to be
across the Western Low Rolling Plains where instability looks to
be maximized around 4000-4500J/kg ahead of the dryline with 0-6km
shear increasing to around 40kt under difluent flow aloft. While
the strongest storms look to be north of the area, storms that
develop over the Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon and
evening could become strong, with hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall the primary threats. Storms that develop are
expected to move to the east, with a weakening trend expected
after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. In addition to
storm concerns today, critical fire weather conditions have
persisted across the Guadalupe Mountains and Southeast New Mexico
Plains, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect through this
evening. Little to no improvement is expected the next few days,
with continued critical conditions expected. Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for additional details.

The dryline will retreat westward tonight, with low-level RH progs
indicating a position near the TX/NM state line extending south
into the Big Bend Area by early Wednesday morning. Thus, low
clouds are expected to develop across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, with well above normal low temperatures in the mid
60s to low 70s east of the dryline due to moisture and cloud
cover. Similar trends are expected on Wednesday with the dryline
quickly pushing east of the area and a low-level thermal ridge
under continued southwesterly flow aloft. Have maintained forecast
high temperatures above the MOS guidance given its continued
under-forecasting of temperatures and over-forecasting of
dewpoints, with highs Wednesday in the 90s to lower 100s. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos on Wednesday afternoon, with chances increasing
along and south of I-10 on Wednesday night. As the dryline
retreats to the west on Thursday and heights begin to fall ahead
of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Despite the dryline
not being as sharp as previous days, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday night.

As the upper trough responsible for the multiple rounds of
thunderstorms finally ejects into the Central Plains at the end of
the week, moisture will briefly be shunted to the east, yielding
dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday. Moisture then begins to return to the region on Sunday,
with dryline thunderstorms possible across the eastern half of the
forecast area from Sunday through at least midweek next week
while western portions of the forecast area remain warm and dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Southwest flow aloft will persist over the region through Thursday
ahead of a slow moving upper level storm system, which will
allow dry air and above normal temperatures to prevail over the
region. In addition, southwesterly winds will be strong enough
each afternoon for critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains, and at times the SE NM Plains. Even as the
base of the upper storm system passes by on Friday, temperatures
appear warm enough and winds strong enough for more critical fire
weather conditions for at least the Guadalupe Mountains. The
Haines Index will likely be 5 each day, if not 6, especially over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.

Critical fire weather conditions will ease early this evening over
the southeast New Mexico Plains, and around 25/03Z in the
Guadalupe Mountains. Recovery will be poor tonight in these areas
with good recovery only expected along and east of a Seminole to
Kermit to Big Bend line. Southwest winds will increase to 20 mph
sustained again by Wednesday afternoon over the Guadalupes and SE
NM Plains. Since hot and dry conditions with minimum RH/s of 5 to
10 percent are also expected in these areas, the Fire Weather
Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from 25/18Z to
26/03Z.

Poor recovery will occur again Wednesday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Pecos to Marfa line, with good recovery to the east.
Since little will change Thursday afternoon, expect critical fire
weather conditions again over the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch from
26/15Z to 27/03Z. Farther east, southwest winds do not appear
strong enough for critical fire weather conditions for several
hours Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  72  90  64 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  62  93  56 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         96  73  93  67 /  20  30  20  40
Fort Stockton                  98  71  94  63 /  10  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 88  59  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  62  89  56 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          90  55  86  48 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  71  94  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         99  71  93  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           99  67  95  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
842
FXUS64 KMAF 250000
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
700 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Dryline slowly moving back to the west with the wind shifting back
around to the south. Gusts have started to drop off as lower wind
speeds expected for this evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs
possible at MAF before sunrise... otherwise VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Very warm, dry, and breezy conditions have overspread much of the
area this afternoon as the dryline has been quicker to push to
the east than previous days. Per current observations and radar
imagery, the dryline extends from just west of Tahoka south
through Lamesa, Stanton, and west of Garden City before curving
back to the west through the Stockton Plateau. The expectation is
for the dryline to continue to move east, with the greatest
potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to be
across the Western Low Rolling Plains where instability looks to
be maximized around 4000-4500J/kg ahead of the dryline with 0-6km
shear increasing to around 40kt under difluent flow aloft. While
the strongest storms look to be north of the area, storms that
develop over the Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon and
evening could become strong, with hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall the primary threats. Storms that develop are
expected to move to the east, with a weakening trend expected
after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. In addition to
storm concerns today, critical fire weather conditions have
persisted across the Guadalupe Mountains and Southeast New Mexico
Plains, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect through this
evening. Little to no improvement is expected the next few days,
with continued critical conditions expected. Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for additional details.

The dryline will retreat westward tonight, with low-level RH progs
indicating a position near the TX/NM state line extending south
into the Big Bend Area by early Wednesday morning. Thus, low
clouds are expected to develop across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, with well above normal low temperatures in the mid
60s to low 70s east of the dryline due to moisture and cloud
cover. Similar trends are expected on Wednesday with the dryline
quickly pushing east of the area and a low-level thermal ridge
under continued southwesterly flow aloft. Have maintained forecast
high temperatures above the MOS guidance given its continued
under-forecasting of temperatures and over-forecasting of
dewpoints, with highs Wednesday in the 90s to lower 100s. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos on Wednesday afternoon, with chances increasing
along and south of I-10 on Wednesday night. As the dryline
retreats to the west on Thursday and heights begin to fall ahead
of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Despite the dryline
not being as sharp as previous days, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday night.

As the upper trough responsible for the multiple rounds of
thunderstorms finally ejects into the Central Plains at the end of
the week, moisture will briefly be shunted to the east, yielding
dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday. Moisture then begins to return to the region on Sunday,
with dryline thunderstorms possible across the eastern half of the
forecast area from Sunday through at least midweek next week
while western portions of the forecast area remain warm and dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Southwest flow aloft will persist over the region through Thursday
ahead of a slow moving upper level storm system, which will
allow dry air and above normal temperatures to prevail over the
region. In addition, southwesterly winds will be strong enough
each afternoon for critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains, and at times the SE NM Plains. Even as the
base of the upper storm system passes by on Friday, temperatures
appear warm enough and winds strong enough for more critical fire
weather conditions for at least the Guadalupe Mountains. The
Haines Index will likely be 5 each day, if not 6, especially over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.

Critical fire weather conditions will ease early this evening over
the southeast New Mexico Plains, and around 25/03Z in the
Guadalupe Mountains. Recovery will be poor tonight in these areas
with good recovery only expected along and east of a Seminole to
Kermit to Big Bend line. Southwest winds will increase to 20 mph
sustained again by Wednesday afternoon over the Guadalupes and SE
NM Plains. Since hot and dry conditions with minimum RH/s of 5 to
10 percent are also expected in these areas, the Fire Weather
Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from 25/18Z to
26/03Z.

Poor recovery will occur again Wednesday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Pecos to Marfa line, with good recovery to the east.
Since little will change Thursday afternoon, expect critical fire
weather conditions again over the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch from
26/15Z to 27/03Z. Farther east, southwest winds do not appear
strong enough for critical fire weather conditions for several
hours Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  97  72  90 /  10  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       60  97  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         72  96  73  93 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  98  71  94 /  10  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 58  88  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  95  62  89 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                          52  90  55  86 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71 100  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         70  99  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           63  99  67  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
007
FXUS64 KMAF 241939
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
239 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Very warm, dry, and breezy conditions have overspread much of the
area this afternoon as the dryline has been quicker to push to
the east than previous days. Per current observations and radar
imagery, the dryline extends from just west of Tahoka south
through Lamesa, Stanton, and west of Garden City before curving
back to the west through the Stockton Plateau. The expectation is
for the dryline to continue to move east, with the greatest
potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to be
across the Western Low Rolling Plains where instability looks to
be maximized around 4000-4500J/kg ahead of the dryline with 0-6km
shear increasing to around 40kt under difluent flow aloft. While
the strongest storms look to be north of the area, storms that
develop over the Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon and
evening could become strong, with hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall the primary threats. Storms that develop are
expected to move to the east, with a weakening trend expected
after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. In addition to
storm concerns today, critical fire weather conditions have
persisted across the Guadalupe Mountains and Southeast New Mexico
Plains, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect through this
evening. Little to no improvement is expected the next few days,
with continued critical conditions expected. Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for additional details.

The dryline will retreat westward tonight, with low-level RH progs
indicating a position near the TX/NM state line extending south
into the Big Bend Area by early Wednesday morning. Thus, low
clouds are expected to develop across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, with well above normal low temperatures in the mid
60s to low 70s east of the dryline due to moisture and cloud
cover. Similar trends are expected on Wednesday with the dryline
quickly pushing east of the area and a low-level thermal ridge
under continued southwesterly flow aloft. Have maintained forecast
high temperatures above the MOS guidance given its continued
under-forecasting of temperatures and over-forecasting of
dewpoints, with highs Wednesday in the 90s to lower 100s. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos on Wednesday afternoon, with chances increasing
along and south of I-10 on Wednesday night. As the dryline
retreats to the west on Thursday and heights begin to fall ahead
of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Despite the dryline
not being as sharp as previous days, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday night.

As the upper trough responsible for the multiple rounds of
thunderstorms finally ejects into the Central Plains at the end of
the week, moisture will briefly be shunted to the east, yielding
dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday. Moisture then begins to return to the region on Sunday,
with dryline thunderstorms possible across the eastern half of the
forecast area from Sunday through at least midweek next week
while western portions of the forecast area remain warm and dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southwest flow aloft will persist over the region through Thursday
ahead of a slow moving upper level storm system, which will
allow dry air and above normal temperatures to prevail over the
region. In addition, southwesterly winds will be strong enough
each afternoon for critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains, and at times the SE NM Plains. Even as the
base of the upper storm system passes by on Friday, temperatures
appear warm enough and winds strong enough for more critical fire
weather conditions for at least the Guadalupe Mountains. The
Haines Index will likely be 5 each day, if not 6, especially over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.

Critical fire weather conditions will ease early this evening over
the southeast New Mexico Plains, and around 25/03Z in the
Guadalupe Mountains. Recovery will be poor tonight in these areas
with good recovery only expected along and east of a Seminole to
Kermit to Big Bend line. Southwest winds will increase to 20 mph
sustained again by Wednesday afternoon over the Guadalupes and SE
NM Plains. Since hot and dry conditions with minimum RH/s of 5 to
10 percent are also expected in these areas, the Fire Weather
Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from 25/18Z to
26/03Z.

Poor recovery will occur again Wednesday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Pecos to Marfa line, with good recovery to the east.
Since little will change Thursday afternoon, expect critical fire
weather conditions again over the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch from
26/15Z to 27/03Z. Farther east, southwest winds do not appear
strong enough for critical fire weather conditions for several
hours Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  97  72  90 /  10  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       60  97  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         72  96  73  93 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  98  71  94 /  10  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 58  88  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  95  62  89 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                          52  90  55  86 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71 100  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         70  99  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           63  99  67  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/84
160
FXUS64 KMAF 241706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty southwest to west winds will affect all area terminals this
afternoon, but will diminish this evening.  VFR conditions will
prevail until late tonight when MVFR ceilings, and perhaps
visibility in fog, will affect KMAF and KHOB.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

Dryline has retreated into the wrn CWFA and is seen quite well on
the IR satellite imagery. it will reside in the western CWFA only
this morning and by 18Z it will e of or near a Lamesa...Midland...
Big Bend Line. A prominent low level thermal ridge will reside
just in wake of the dryline where it will be hot again. There were
several 100-102 readings and 109-111 at Rio Grande Village
yesterday and expect that will again be the case today. MOS looks
to be have a cool bias of late and todays highs will likely be
warmer than MOS. Not sure how MOS is coming up dwpnts so high w of
the dryline either. This will generally be the trend for Wed too,
maybe even moreso since the mid level flow will probably be more
veered. Dryline will hang up across the far south as it likes to
do. CINH does show some signs of weakening across the far Lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon and storms would be severe if they
develop. Elsewhere convective initiation will be hard to come by
thru Wed PM. ATTP will opt to downplay storms this morning and Wed
AM, despite GFS` higher PoPs. Storms are more likely Thur across
the PB/Trans Pecos with the dryline farther w and mid level height
falls. A weak Pacific front late Thur night or Fri AM along with a
75-80kt 3h speed max may be sufficient for nocturnal tstms, but
dry air will encompass all of the CWFA Fri PM. A few dryline
storms may return Sat/Sun PM, but moreso on Sun when there is more
likely to be a 3h jet max to the s. Otherwise there is some
cooling from Thur onward but still repetitively hot/dry across the
wrn half of the CWFA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Winds across the area are expected to be elevated and gusty out
of the southwest with winds of at least 20 mph across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of southeast New Mexico where the
atmosphere is in an very dry and unstable state, Haines Indices of
5-6. The southwest winds will contribute to compressional warming
with high temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. Minimum RH
values this afternoon will be 15 percent or below along and to the
west of a line from around Lamesa to Midland to Fort Stockton.
Many places along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos will
experience minimum RH values in the single digits. Due to these
conditions, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon
and early this evening for the Guadalupe Mountains and the
southeast New Mexico plains. Critical fire weather will remain
possible for Wednesday with similar conditions expected as on
Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has therefore been issued for the
same area for Wednesday afternoon through early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  70  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                      100  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  73  94  71 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  97  61 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          88  56  90  57 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                          100  63 100  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
769
FXUS64 KMAF 241121
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings will continue spreading and impacting the area
through around 15z. Winds will gradually turn towards the
southwest later this morning and become elevated and gusty before
weakening this evening. High clouds are expected to continue to
move across the area today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dryline has retreated into the wrn CWFA and is seen quite well on
the IR satellite imagery. it will reside in the western CWFA only
this morning and by 18Z it will e of or near a Lamesa...Midland...
Big Bend Line. A prominent low level thermal ridge will reside
just in wake of the dryline where it will be hot again. There
were several 100-102 readings and 109-111 at Rio Grande Village
yesterday and expect that will again be the case today. MOS looks
to be have a cool bias of late and todays highs will likely be
warmer than MOS. Not sure how MOS is coming up dwpnts so high w of
the dryline either. This will generally be the trend for Wed too,
maybe even moreso since the mid level flow will probably be more
veered. Dryline will hang up across the far south as it likes to
do. CINH does show some signs of weakening across the far Lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon and storms would be severe if they
develop. Elsewhere convective initiation will be hard to come by
thru Wed PM. ATTP will opt to downplay storms this morning and Wed
AM, despite GFS` higher PoPs. Storms are more likely Thur across
the PB/Trans Pecos with the dryline farther w and mid level height
falls. A weak Pacific front late Thur night or Fri AM along with a
75-80kt 3h speed max may be sufficient for nocturnal tstms, but
dry air will encompass all of the CWFA Fri PM. A few dryline
storms may return Sat/Sun PM, but moreso on Sun when there is more
likely to be a 3h jet max to the s. Otherwise there is some
cooling from Thur onward but still repetitively hot/dry across
the wrn half of the CWFA.

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds across the area are expected to be elevated and gusty out
of the southwest with winds of at least 20 mph across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of southeast New Mexico where the
atmosphere is in an very dry and unstable state, Haines Indices of
5-6. The southwest winds will contribute to compressional warming
with high temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. Minimum RH
values this afternoon will be 15 percent or below along and to the
west of a line from around Lamesa to Midland to Fort Stockton.
Many places along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos will
experience minimum RH values in the single digits. Due to these
conditions, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon
and early this evening for the Guadalupe Mountains and the
southeast New Mexico plains. Critical fire weather will remain
possible for Wednesday with similar conditions expected as on
Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has therefore been issued for the
same area for Wednesday afternoon through early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  70  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                      100  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  73  94  71 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  97  61 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          88  56  90  57 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                          100  63 100  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
870
FXUS64 KMAF 240818
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
318 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Dryline has retreated into the wrn CWFA and is seen quite well on
the IR satellite imagery. it will reside in the western CWFA only
this morning and by 18Z it will e of or near a Lamesa...Midland...
Big Bend Line. A prominent low level thermal ridge will reside
just in wake of the dryline where it will be hot again. There
were several 100-102 readings and 109-111 at Rio Grande Village
yesterday and expect that will again be the case today. MOS looks
to be have a cool bias of late and todays highs will likely be
warmer than MOS. Not sure how MOS is coming up dwpnts so high w of
the dryline either. This will generally be the trend for Wed too,
maybe even moreso since the mid level flow will probably be more
veered. Dryline will hang up across the far south as it likes to
do. CINH does show some signs of weakening across the far Lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon and storms would be severe if they
develop. Elsewhere convective initiation will be hard to come by
thru Wed PM. ATTP will opt to downplay storms this morning and Wed
AM, despite GFS` higher PoPs. Storms are more likely Thur across
the PB/Trans Pecos with the dryline farther w and mid level height
falls. A weak Pacific front late Thur night or Fri AM along with a
75-80kt 3h speed max may be sufficient for nocturnal tstms, but
dry air will encompass all of the CWFA Fri PM. A few dryline
storms may return Sat/Sun PM, but moreso on Sun when there is more
likely to be a 3h jet max to the s. Otherwise there is some
cooling from Thur onward but still repetitively hot/dry across
the wrn half of the CWFA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds across the area are expected to be elevated and gusty out
of the southwest with winds of at least 20 mph across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of southeast New Mexico where the
atmosphere is in an very dry and unstable state, Haines Indices of
5-6. The southwest winds will contribute to compressional warming
with high temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. Minimum RH
values this afternoon will be 15 percent or below along and to the
west of a line from around Lamesa to Midland to Fort Stockton.
Many places along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos will
experience minimum RH values in the single digits. Due to these
conditions, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon
and early this evening for the Guadalupe Mountains and the
southeast New Mexico plains. Critical fire weather will remain
possible for Wednesday with similar conditions expected as on
Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has therefore been issued for the
same area for Wednesday afternoon through early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  70  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                      100  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  73  94  71 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  97  61 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          88  56  90  57 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                          100  63 100  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
100
FXUS64 KMAF 240518
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a chance of low ceilings moving into the area around 09z
and lasting until around 15z. The best chances for low ceilings
will be at MAF and HOB, although FST, INK, and PEQ could also see
low ceilings. Winds will remain elevated out of the south for MAF
overnight then become gusty out of the southwest tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Tornado Watch #199 until 24/03Z is included.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
roughly along and east of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line.  Large
hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
will be possible with these storms, as will a tornado or two.

An upper trough will dig over the western ConUS today, deepen to
encompass most of the West Coast by Wednesday, then move slowly
eastward and over the region Thursday into Friday.  A dryline will
take up semi permanent residence over the forecast area through the
week under the resultant southwest flow aloft over the region,
mixing eastward during the day and retreating westward overnight.
Expect the dryline to set up in a similar location to yesterday with
convection initiating during max heating over the Stockton Plateau
in an area of enhanced low level convergence.  Subsequent storms are
also expected to form further northward into the evening.  It does
not appear that areal thunderstorm coverage will be extensive, due
in part to no discernible mid level shortwave trough in Water Vapor
Imagery, but whatever storms develop will likely become severe.
This will be due to strong heating aiding SBCape rising to 3000 to
4000 J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/Km and the exit
region of a 110kt h25 jet nosing into the region.  0 to 6 Km Bulk
Shear Vectors will also be on the order of 30 to 40kt which portends
organized convection.  Storms will last into the evening as a h85
low level jet increase over the Permian Basin, but should be winding
down by 24/03Z, or moving east of the forecast area on the low level
jet.  There is an outside chance convection could redevelop late
tonight on the dryline so will leave at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms overnight.  Even though storms would be elevated,
anything that develops could be strong to severe with heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding.

Tuesday through Thursday, the dryline will likely push to the
eastern fringe of the forecast area each day so will continue to
carry a slight chance of thunderstorms these areas.  Slight
adjustments will likely have to be made as we get closer to each of
those time frames, but severe storms could be possible each
afternoon/evening.  On Friday the base of the upper trough will
translate eastward with most thunderstorms perhaps east of the area
depending on how early the trough moves overhead.  There will not be
much of a respite from this active pattern since another upper
trough is progged to take shape over the western ConUS this weekend.

Temperatures will be above normal areawide through the week.  Dry
and hot conditions will prevail to the west of the dryline with
critical fire weather conditions affecting the western half of the
forecast area, but particularly the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion
below for further details.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue through
this evening across the Guadalupe Mountains where a Red Flag Warning
is in effect.  Afternoon RH values are expected to bottom out around
6 to 10 percent, with southwesterly 20 foot winds of 20 to 30 mph
with some higher gusts, especially across the higher elevations and
ridgetops. With gusty winds developing at lower elevations, some
brief localized critical fire weather conditions are possible across
the southeast New Mexico Plains through early this evening. A brief
reprieve is expected tonight with conditions improving with the loss
of daytime heating and slightly weaker winds, however given the
dryline will remain to the east, poor nocturnal recovery is
anticipated.

On Tuesday, the dryline will push further to the east across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, with increasing dry air
to the west. The stronger winds that had been previously been
confined mainly to the higher terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains
will spread eastward across the southeast New Mexico Plains during
the afternoon, resulting in critical fire weather conditions as
minimum RH values fall to 5 to 8 percent. The Fire Weather Watch
that was in effect for this area has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning for Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.  Similar
conditions may develop again on Wednesday, thus a future Fire
Weather Watch may be needed for the Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday
evening time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  92  68  91 /  20  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       60  98  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  95  71  95 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  66  94  67  94 /   0  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 58  84  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  93  60  87 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          53  87  56  86 /   0   0  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  97  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         70  97  68  92 /  10   0  10  10
Wink                           63  98  65  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
926
FXUS64 KMAF 232250
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
550 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Dryline near a Lamesa...Midland...Ft.Stockton line is currently
generating widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in
the eastern Permian Basin, east of the terminals. The dryline is
forecast to move west this evening and overnight to the west
Texas, eastern New Mexico border. Thunderstorms are expected
to remain east of the terminals this evening and overnight with
MVFR ceilings developing at KMAF at 09Z thru 14z Tuesday with
tempo MVFR ceilings at KHOB in the 09z to 12z Tuesday timeframe.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours.
Generally south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected
overnight switching to southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph and
gusty by mid to late Tuesday morning.


12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Tornado Watch #199 until 24/03Z is included.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
roughly along and east of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line.  Large
hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
will be possible with these storms, as will a tornado or two.

An upper trough will dig over the western ConUS today, deepen to
encompass most of the West Coast by Wednesday, then move slowly
eastward and over the region Thursday into Friday.  A dryline will
take up semi permanent residence over the forecast area through the
week under the resultant southwest flow aloft over the region,
mixing eastward during the day and retreating westward overnight.
Expect the dryline to set up in a similar location to yesterday with
convection initiating during max heating over the Stockton Plateau
in an area of enhanced low level convergence.  Subsequent storms are
also expected to form further northward into the evening.  It does
not appear that areal thunderstorm coverage will be extensive, due
in part to no discernible mid level shortwave trough in Water Vapor
Imagery, but whatever storms develop will likely become severe.
This will be due to strong heating aiding SBCape rising to 3000 to
4000 J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/Km and the exit
region of a 110kt h25 jet nosing into the region.  0 to 6 Km Bulk
Shear Vectors will also be on the order of 30 to 40kt which portends
organized convection.  Storms will last into the evening as a h85
low level jet increase over the Permian Basin, but should be winding
down by 24/03Z, or moving east of the forecast area on the low level
jet.  There is an outside chance convection could redevelop late
tonight on the dryline so will leave at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms overnight.  Even though storms would be elevated,
anything that develops could be strong to severe with heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding.

Tuesday through Thursday, the dryline will likely push to the
eastern fringe of the forecast area each day so will continue to
carry a slight chance of thunderstorms these areas.  Slight
adjustments will likely have to be made as we get closer to each of
those time frames, but severe storms could be possible each
afternoon/evening.  On Friday the base of the upper trough will
translate eastward with most thunderstorms perhaps east of the area
depending on how early the trough moves overhead.  There will not be
much of a respite from this active pattern since another upper
trough is progged to take shape over the western ConUS this weekend.

Temperatures will be above normal areawide through the week.  Dry
and hot conditions will prevail to the west of the dryline with
critical fire weather conditions affecting the western half of the
forecast area, but particularly the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion
below for further details.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue through
this evening across the Guadalupe Mountains where a Red Flag Warning
is in effect.  Afternoon RH values are expected to bottom out around
6 to 10 percent, with southwesterly 20 foot winds of 20 to 30 mph
with some higher gusts, especially across the higher elevations and
ridgetops. With gusty winds developing at lower elevations, some
brief localized critical fire weather conditions are possible across
the southeast New Mexico Plains through early this evening. A brief
reprieve is expected tonight with conditions improving with the loss
of daytime heating and slightly weaker winds, however given the
dryline will remain to the east, poor nocturnal recovery is
anticipated.

On Tuesday, the dryline will push further to the east across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, with increasing dry air
to the west. The stronger winds that had been previously been
confined mainly to the higher terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains
will spread eastward across the southeast New Mexico Plains during
the afternoon, resulting in critical fire weather conditions as
minimum RH values fall to 5 to 8 percent. The Fire Weather Watch
that was in effect for this area has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning for Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.  Similar
conditions may develop again on Wednesday, thus a future Fire
Weather Watch may be needed for the Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday
evening time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  93  71  92 /  30  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       59  96  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         74  96  75  95 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  94  66  94 /  20  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 60  87  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  92  61  93 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          50  85  53  87 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         73  95  70  97 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           69  98  63  98 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/12
271
FXUS64 KMAF 231934
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
234 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tornado Watch #199 until 24/03Z is included.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
roughly along and east of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line.  Large
hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
will be possible with these storms, as will a tornado or two.

An upper trough will dig over the western ConUS today, deepen to
encompass most of the West Coast by Wednesday, then move slowly
eastward and over the region Thursday into Friday.  A dryline will
take up semi permanent residence over the forecast area through the
week under the resultant southwest flow aloft over the region,
mixing eastward during the day and retreating westward overnight.
Expect the dryline to set up in a similar location to yesterday with
convection initiating during max heating over the Stockton Plateau
in an area of enhanced low level convergence.  Subsequent storms are
also expected to form further northward into the evening.  It does
not appear that areal thunderstorm coverage will be extensive, due
in part to no discernible mid level shortwave trough in Water Vapor
Imagery, but whatever storms develop will likely become severe.
This will be due to strong heating aiding SBCape rising to 3000 to
4000 J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/Km and the exit
region of a 110kt h25 jet nosing into the region.  0 to 6 Km Bulk
Shear Vectors will also be on the order of 30 to 40kt which portends
organized convection.  Storms will last into the evening as a h85
low level jet increase over the Permian Basin, but should be winding
down by 24/03Z, or moving east of the forecast area on the low level
jet.  There is an outside chance convection could redevelop late
tonight on the dryline so will leave at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms overnight.  Even though storms would be elevated,
anything that develops could be strong to severe with heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding.

Tuesday through Thursday, the dryline will likely push to the
eastern fringe of the forecast area each day so will continue to
carry a slight chance of thunderstorms these areas.  Slight
adjustments will likely have to be made as we get closer to each of
those time frames, but severe storms could be possible each
afternoon/evening.  On Friday the base of the upper trough will
translate eastward with most thunderstorms perhaps east of the area
depending on how early the trough moves overhead.  There will not be
much of a respite from this active pattern since another upper
trough is progged to take shape over the western ConUS this weekend.

Temperatures will be above normal areawide through the week.  Dry
and hot conditions will prevail to the west of the dryline with
critical fire weather conditions affecting the western half of the
forecast area, but particularly the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion
below for further details.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue through
this evening across the Guadalupe Mountains where a Red Flag Warning
is in effect.  Afternoon RH values are expected to bottom out around
6 to 10 percent, with southwesterly 20 foot winds of 20 to 30 mph
with some higher gusts, especially across the higher elevations and
ridgetops. With gusty winds developing at lower elevations, some
brief localized critical fire weather conditions are possible across
the southeast New Mexico Plains through early this evening. A brief
reprieve is expected tonight with conditions improving with the loss
of daytime heating and slightly weaker winds, however given the
dryline will remain to the east, poor nocturnal recovery is
anticipated.

On Tuesday, the dryline will push further to the east across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, with increasing dry air
to the west. The stronger winds that had been previously been
confined mainly to the higher terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains
will spread eastward across the southeast New Mexico Plains during
the afternoon, resulting in critical fire weather conditions as
minimum RH values fall to 5 to 8 percent. The Fire Weather Watch
that was in effect for this area has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning for Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.  Similar
conditions may develop again on Wednesday, thus a future Fire
Weather Watch may be needed for the Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday
evening time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  93  71  92 /  30  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       59  96  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         74  96  75  95 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  94  66  94 /  20  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 60  87  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  92  61  93 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          50  85  53  87 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         73  95  70  97 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           69  98  63  98 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

84/67
028
FXUS64 KMAF 231759
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1259 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are the main concern this afternoon/evening, mainly
for MAF and FST. While it looks like activity should be just east
of the terminals, have not included mention at this time.
Amendments may be needed if storms develop further west or if
outflow boundaries look to affect the terminals. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will continue for most of the area, with low ceilings
again possible late tonight/early Tuesday for HOB and MAF. Gusty
W/SW winds are expected west of the dryline, with S/SE winds to
the east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

MVFR stratus affecting HOB and MAF early this morning while all
other terminals remain VFR. Low cigs will lift/scatter around mid
morning with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. Gusty SW winds
return to HOB, CNM and INK this afternoon as the dryline makes
another run east through the region. Elsewhere, gusty S/SE winds can
be expected. Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening however due to uncertainty regarding exact timing/location
of convective initiation, will not include mention in the TAFs at
this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A large upper low has crossed this morning into Canada but a trough
extends SW back to the Pacific coast.  This trough will dig
southward moving to the 4 corners region by early Thursday. As it
swings across the Panhandle and lifts NE another upper low will move
down across the NW. This will continue the active pattern for the
region with severe wx possible again today.

Little change in the overall pattern with storms expected over the
east again today as dryline once again expected to be focus for
convection.  Have some patchy low clouds this morning moving up from
the SE and some high clouds spreading in from the west.  A surface
trough extending down across the area will help sharpen the dryline
and steady southerly flow east of the dryline will keep dewpts high.
Dewpts at 08z range from 27 in the west to 73 in the east.

Severe storms will be possible today... supercells with very
large hail... damaging wind... and a few tornadoes.  Latest SWODY1
for today has kept a slight risk along and east of a Seminole to
Marathon line but has added enhanced wording along and east of a
Lamesa to Fort Stockton due to high CAPE... improved shear... and
the expected arrival of a shortwave.  Have increased pops today and
tonight for Pecos Co. as multiple models develop qpf blowing up there...
could see a return of the Pecos Co. supercell.  Highest pops next
24hrs only in the 30-40 range just because not expecting that much
coverage... but fairly confident the storms will develop.  Day2
only catches the NE Permian Basin in the slight risk.  In the
extended mainly low pops continue with storm chances increasing
next weekend.

Temps at MAF briefly shot up yesterday afternoon as the dryline
mixed east before quickly retreating.  High at MAF yesterday reached
98 degrees... one of the hottest places in the state.  Will go above
guidance temps again today and lows will remain on the high side.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy conditions expected across western portions of the
region once again today as a dryline pushes east through the
afternoon. Minimum relative humidity will quickly drop below 15
percent across SE NM south through the Davis Mountains and Big Bend
regions. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
across the Guadalupe Mountains where westerly winds will increase to
25-30 mph sustained. As a result, the Fire Weather Watch has been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for this area for the afternoon and
evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are expected once
again Tuesday across the Guadalupe Mountains as well as the
southeast New Mexico plains and a Fire Weather Watch is now in
effect for these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  93  70  94 /  30  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       59  94  60  93 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         72  96  74  95 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  94  66  94 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 60  86  58  84 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          61  92  60  91 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          50  85  52  87 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  97  70  95 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         70  95  69  95 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           65  98  63  97 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
422
FXUS64 KMAF 231119
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

MVFR stratus affecting HOB and MAF early this morning while all
other terminals remain VFR. Low cigs will lift/scatter around mid
morning with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. Gusty SW winds
return to HOB, CNM and INK this afternoon as the dryline makes
another run east through the region. Elsewhere, gusty S/SE winds can
be expected. Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening however due to uncertainty regarding exact timing/location
of convective initiation, will not include mention in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A large upper low has crossed this morning into Canada but a trough
extends SW back to the Pacific coast.  This trough will dig
southward moving to the 4 corners region by early Thursday. As it
swings across the Panhandle and lifts NE another upper low will move
down across the NW. This will continue the active pattern for the
region with severe wx possible again today.

Little change in the overall pattern with storms expected over the
east again today as dryline once again expected to be focus for
convection.  Have some patchy low clouds this morning moving up from
the SE and some high clouds spreading in from the west.  A surface
trough extending down across the area will help sharpen the dryline
and steady southerly flow east of the dryline will keep dewpts high.
Dewpts at 08z range from 27 in the west to 73 in the east.

Severe storms will be possible today... supercells with very
large hail... damaging wind... and a few tornadoes.  Latest SWODY1
for today has kept a slight risk along and east of a Seminole to
Marathon line but has added enhanced wording along and east of a
Lamesa to Fort Stockton due to high CAPE... improved shear... and
the expected arrival of a shortwave.  Have increased pops today and
tonight for Pecos Co. as multiple models develop qpf blowing up there...
could see a return of the Pecos Co. supercell.  Highest pops next
24hrs only in the 30-40 range just because not expecting that much
coverage... but fairly confident the storms will develop.  Day2
only catches the NE Permian Basin in the slight risk.  In the
extended mainly low pops continue with storm chances increasing
next weekend.

Temps at MAF briefly shot up yesterday afternoon as the dryline
mixed east before quickly retreating.  High at MAF yesterday reached
98 degrees... one of the hottest places in the state.  Will go above
guidance temps again today and lows will remain on the high side.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy conditions expected across western portions of the
region once again today as a dryline pushes east through the
afternoon. Minimum relative humidity will quickly drop below 15
percent across SE NM south through the Davis Mountains and Big Bend
regions. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
across the Guadalupe Mountains where westerly winds will increase to
25-30 mph sustained. As a result, the Fire Weather Watch has been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for this area for the afternoon and
evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are expected once
again Tuesday across the Guadalupe Mountains as well as the
southeast New Mexico plains and a Fire Weather Watch is now in
effect for these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  72  93  70 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  59  94  60 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         93  72  96  74 /  20  30  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  66  94  66 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 88  60  86  58 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          93  61  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          88  50  85  52 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           96  74  97  70 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         95  70  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           97  65  98  63 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
377
FXUS64 KMAF 230850
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
350 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A large upper low has crossed this morning into Canada but a trough
extends SW back to the Pacific coast.  This trough will dig
southward moving to the 4 corners region by early Thursday. As it
swings across the Panhandle and lifts NE another upper low will move
down across the NW. This will continue the active pattern for the
region with severe wx possible again today.

Little change in the overall pattern with storms expected over the
east again today as dryline once again expected to be focus for
convection.  Have some patchy low clouds this morning moving up from
the SE and some high clouds spreading in from the west.  A surface
trough extending down across the area will help sharpen the dryline
and steady southerly flow east of the dryline will keep dewpts high.
Dewpts at 08z range from 27 in the west to 73 in the east.

Severe storms will be possible today... supercells with very
large hail... damaging wind... and a few tornadoes.  Latest SWODY1
for today has kept a slight risk along and east of a Seminole to
Marathon line but has added enhanced wording along and east of a
Lamesa to Fort Stockton due to high CAPE... improved shear... and
the expected arrival of a shortwave.  Have increased pops today and
tonight for Pecos Co. as multiple models develop qpf blowing up there...
could see a return of the Pecos Co. supercell.  Highest pops next
24hrs only in the 30-40 range just because not expecting that much
coverage... but fairly confident the storms will develop.  Day2
only catches the NE Permian Basin in the slight risk.  In the
extended mainly low pops continue with storm chances increasing
next weekend.

Temps at MAF briefly shot up yesterday afternoon as the dryline
mixed east before quickly retreating.  High at MAF yesterday reached
98 degrees... one of the hottest places in the state.  Will go above
guidance temps again today and lows will remain on the high side.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy conditions expected across western portions of the
region once again today as a dryline pushes east through the
afternoon. Minimum relative humidity will quickly drop below 15
percent across SE NM south through the Davis Mountains and Big Bend
regions. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
across the Guadalupe Mountains where westerly winds will increase to
25-30 mph sustained. As a result, the Fire Weather Watch has been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for this area for the afternoon and
evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are expected once
again Tuesday across the Guadalupe Mountains as well as the
southeast New Mexico plains and a Fire Weather Watch is now in
effect for these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  72  93  70 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  59  94  60 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         93  72  96  74 /  20  30  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  66  94  66 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 88  60  86  58 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          93  61  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          88  50  85  52 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           96  74  97  70 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         95  70  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           97  65  98  63 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
796
FXUS64 KMAF 230534
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

VFR conditions across all area terminals tonight however low stratus
can be seen on satellite developing from the SE. Expect MVFR cigs to
affect MAF, HOB and potentially INK through mid morning, at which
point low cigs will scatter/lift. Otherwise, elevated wind speeds
will continue at MAF and FST for the next few hours then diminish by
09 or 10Z. Gusty SW winds return to HOB, CNM and INK as the dryline
makes another run east through the region Monday afternoon.
Elsewhere, gusty S/SE winds can be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows that the upper ridge has shifted east in response
to the PacNW trough ejecting NE into Alberta.  As a result, West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico now sit under SW flow aloft on the
backside of the ridge.  At the sfc, mesoanalysis shows the
dryline extending from NW Lea County to eastern Pecos County, and
curving back west into the Big Bend Area.  East of this feature,
instability has been increasing over the past few hours, w/a ridge
of 5000+J/kg capes running N-S.  Moisture convergence is on the
increase as well, and convection should begin shortly. Along this
axis of instability, mid-lvl LRs are 7C/km or higher, and forecast
to increase into the overnight hours.  Deep lyr (0-6km) shear is
also forecast to increase to 50-55 kts east of the dryline this
evening. Wet-bulb zero heights are in the 9-10kft range, so large
hail remains a threat. Sounding profiles again show dcapes in excess
of 1000 J/kg, so damaging winds will be possible as well. Even a
tornado can`t be ruled out, as 0-3km helicities increase notably
just east of the dryline into the evening hours. Finally, models
develops a 40-45kt LLJ to keep things going at least into into late
evening. Monday afternoon looks just as bad, if not worse than
today, although forecast higher helicities will be a bit further
west than today`s. Nevertheless, we`ve mentioned svr wx in the grids
for both today and Monday, w/a mention of tornadoes in the HWO. West
of the dryline, Red Flag conditions are noted in the Guadalupes, and
persistence suggests similar conditions Monday.

Otherwise, the general synoptic trend going into this week will be
an upper trough digging down the west coast, keeping West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft, w/dryline convection daily
east of this feature, mainly SE zones.  Midweek, the trough will
begin moving east, and pass north of the region Friday
night/Saturday.  Temps should stay above-normal until late week,
when they`ll drop to near-normal as thicknesses decrease w`the
approach of the trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  96  70  94 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       59  94  60  93 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         72  96  74  95 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  94  66  94 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  86  58  84 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          60  90  57  91 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          50  85  52  87 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  97  70  95 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         70  95  69  95 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           65  98  63  96 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
997
FXUS64 KMAF 221955
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
255 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows that the upper ridge has shifted east in response
to the PacNW trough ejecting NE into Alberta.  As a result, West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico now sit under SW flow aloft on the
backside of the ridge.  At the sfc, mesoanalysis shows the
dryline extending from NW Lea County to eastern Pecos County, and
curving back west into the Big Bend Area.  East of this feature,
instability has been increasing over the past few hours, w/a ridge
of 5000+J/kg capes running N-S.  Moisture convergence is on the
increase as well, and convection should begin shortly. Along this
axis of instability, mid-lvl LRs are 7C/km or higher, and forecast
to increase into the overnight hours.  Deep lyr (0-6km) shear is
also forecast to increase to 50-55 kts east of the dryline this
evening. Wet-bulb zero heights are in the 9-10kft range, so large
hail remains a threat. Sounding profiles again show dcapes in excess
of 1000 J/kg, so damaging winds will be possible as well. Even a
tornado can`t be ruled out, as 0-3km helicities increase notably
just east of the dryline into the evening hours. Finally, models
develops a 40-45kt LLJ to keep things going at least into into late
evening. Monday afternoon looks just as bad, if not worse than
today, although forecast higher helicities will be a bit further
west than today`s. Nevertheless, we`ve mentioned svr wx in the grids
for both today and Monday, w/a mention of tornadoes in the HWO. West
of the dryline, Red Flag conditions are noted in the Guadalupes, and
persistence suggests similar conditions Monday.

Otherwise, the general synoptic trend going into this week will be
an upper trough digging down the west coast, keeping West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft, w/dryline convection daily
east of this feature, mainly SE zones.  Midweek, the trough will
begin moving east, and pass north of the region Friday
night/Saturday.  Temps should stay above-normal until late week,
when they`ll drop to near-normal as thicknesses decrease w`the
approach of the trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  94  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       62  96  59  94 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  89  72  96 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  69  94  66  94 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 63  87  60  86 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          64  92  60  90 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          55  87  50  85 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           72  95  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         71  94  70  95 /  10  10  20  10
Wink                           69  96  65  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

84/44
347
FXUS64 KMAF 221750
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorm potential is the main concern this afternoon/evening.
Currently, high-res guidance is differing on the location of
convective initiation, though storms are possible at INK and FST,
with the best chance at MAF. Main threats with storms will be
large hail, gusty winds, and visibility reductions in heavy rain.
Given uncertainties in exact timing/location, have not included
mention in TAFs at this time. Storms will move east late this
evening, with low ceilings likely returning to MAF after 23/09Z,
improving by mid-morning Monday. Windy conditions will continue,
with W/SW winds west of the dryline, and S/SE winds east of the
dryline.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the NW part of the country this morning will
continue to lift NE but additional lobes will rotate down behind it.
Upper ridge over the area will shift east as the trough grows across
the Western US.  This will put the region into SW flow aloft and
allow disturbances to track across the area.  It will take most of
the week for this secondary part of the trough to swing through and
by the time it does another upper low moves onto the NW coast.

Have very good low level moisture in place this morning with dewpts
in the low to mid 60s and even into the 70s in Terrell.  Low clouds
spreading NW.  Did not have that many storms around yesterday but
some of them did produce large hail... with some storms continuing
overnight.  May see a repeat of those today as a slight risk in
effect today for eastern half of the area as storms are expected to
develop along a dryline again today.  Mention of severe storms
already in the zones/grids so will keep that and will continue to
highlight large hail and damaging wind in the HWO.  Storm chances
continue for the east Monday with pops decreasing on Tuesday.  Some
low pops continue through the extended mainly for the east.

Temperatures have been unseasonably warm and running above
guidance... will go over guidance again today as much of the area
should climb into the 90s.  The rest of the week looks warm with 90s
for most of the region each day.  Overnight lows will remain
elevated.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy conditions expected across western portions of the
region today as a dryline pushes east through the afternoon. Minimum
relative humidity will quickly drop below 15 percent across SE NM
south through the Big Bend. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop across the Guadalupe Mountains where wind speeds
will be greater than 20 mph. Will go ahead and upgrade the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains for
this afternoon and early evening. The Guadalupe Mountains will
likely see a repeat event on Monday and a Fire Weather Watch is now
in effect for this area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  93  70  92 /  40  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       61  94  59  93 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         72  91  71  94 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  67  93  65  95 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 60  86  58  83 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          60  89  59  91 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          51  88  49  89 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  94  68  95 /  30  20  20  10
Odessa                         69  93  68  95 /  30  10  20  10
Wink                           66  96  65  97 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
559
FXUS64 KMAF 221116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

MVFR stratus affecting HOB and MAF early this morning while all
other terminals remained VFR. Low cigs will lift/scatter with VFR
conditions prevailing thereafter. Thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon and evening however due to uncertainty regarding
exact timing/location of convective initiation, will not include
mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the NW part of the country this morning will
continue to lift NE but additional lobes will rotate down behind it.
Upper ridge over the area will shift east as the trough grows across
the Western US.  This will put the region into SW flow aloft and
allow disturbances to track across the area.  It will take most of
the week for this secondary part of the trough to swing through and
by the time it does another upper low moves onto the NW coast.

Have very good low level moisture in place this morning with dewpts
in the low to mid 60s and even into the 70s in Terrell.  Low clouds
spreading NW.  Did not have that many storms around yesterday but
some of them did produce large hail... with some storms continuing
overnight.  May see a repeat of those today as a slight risk in
effect today for eastern half of the area as storms are expected to
develop along a dryline again today.  Mention of severe storms
already in the zones/grids so will keep that and will continue to
highlight large hail and damaging wind in the HWO.  Storm chances
continue for the east Monday with pops decreasing on Tuesday.  Some
low pops continue through the extended mainly for the east.

Temperatures have been unseasonably warm and running above
guidance... will go over guidance again today as much of the area
should climb into the 90s.  The rest of the week looks warm with 90s
for most of the region each day.  Overnight lows will remain
elevated.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy conditions expected across western portions of the
region today as a dryline pushes east through the afternoon. Minimum
relative humidity will quickly drop below 15 percent across SE NM
south through the Big Bend. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop across the Guadalupe Mountains where wind speeds
will be greater than 20 mph. Will go ahead and upgrade the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains for
this afternoon and early evening. The Guadalupe Mountains will
likely see a repeat event on Monday and a Fire Weather Watch is now
in effect for this area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  68  93  70 /  40  40  20  20
Carlsbad                       94  61  94  59 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         91  72  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  91  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  86  58 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          90  60  89  59 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          86  51  88  49 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  69  94  68 /  30  30  20  20
Odessa                         92  69  93  68 /  20  30  10  20
Wink                           95  66  96  65 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
854
FXUS64 KMAF 220819
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
319 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the NW part of the country this morning will
continue to lift NE but additional lobes will rotate down behind it.
Upper ridge over the area will shift east as the trough grows across
the Western US.  This will put the region into SW flow aloft and
allow disturbances to track across the area.  It will take most of
the week for this secondary part of the trough to swing through and
by the time it does another upper low moves onto the NW coast.

Have very good low level moisture in place this morning with dewpts
in the low to mid 60s and even into the 70s in Terrell.  Low clouds
spreading NW.  Did not have that many storms around yesterday but
some of them did produce large hail... with some storms continuing
overnight.  May see a repeat of those today as a slight risk in
effect today for eastern half of the area as storms are expected to
develop along a dryline again today.  Mention of severe storms
already in the zones/grids so will keep that and will continue to
highlight large hail and damaging wind in the HWO.  Storm chances
continue for the east Monday with pops decreasing on Tuesday.  Some
low pops continue through the extended mainly for the east.

Temperatures have been unseasonably warm and running above
guidance... will go over guidance again today as much of the area
should climb into the 90s.  The rest of the week looks warm with 90s
for most of the region each day.  Overnight lows will remain
elevated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy conditions expected across western portions of the
region today as a dryline pushes east through the afternoon. Minimum
relative humidity will quickly drop below 15 percent across SE NM
south through the Big Bend. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop across the Guadalupe Mountains where wind speeds
will be greater than 20 mph. Will go ahead and upgrade the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains for
this afternoon and early evening. The Guadalupe Mountains will
likely see a repeat event on Monday and a Fire Weather Watch is now
in effect for this area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  68  93  70 /  40  40  20  20
Carlsbad                       94  61  94  59 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         91  72  91  71 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  91  67  93  65 /  20  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  86  58 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          90  60  89  59 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          86  51  88  49 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           92  69  94  68 /  30  30  20  20
Odessa                         92  69  93  68 /  20  30  10  20
Wink                           95  66  96  65 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
048
FXUS64 KMAF 220529
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

VFR conditions continue across the terminals with thunderstorms
currently affecting HOB. Storms don`t look to last very much longer
but will continue a TEMPO TSRA at HOB for another hour and amend for
any changes. Expect MVFR cigs to develop tonight, affecting MAF, HOB
and potentially FST and INK through morning. Confidence is low
timing of low stratus due to ongoing convection so will continue to
monitor current trends and amend when needed. Low clouds will begin
to break by late morning with VFR conditions prevailing through
Sunday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under
an upper-lvl ridge between two systems, one over the Great lakes
region, and the other over eastern OR.  Sfc observations show
return flow has backed a weak dryline up against the mountains,
w/dewpoints in the 50s as far west as KROW-KCNM-KMRF-KPRS.  East of
the dryline, sfc analysis shows a ridge of cape in excess of
3000J/kg extending from LBBB-K6R6, w/radar showing convection
developing over the Davis Mtns.  Coupled w/a shortwave in WV imagery
approaching thru Chihuahua, things could get somewhat busy shortly.
W/mid-lvl LR`s in excess of 7C/km over the northern half of the CWA,
dcapes in excess of 1000J/kg throughout, and deep lyr shear of 35-
45kts, large hail/damaging winds will be possible w/the stronger
storms.  However, forecast soundings develop impressive helicities
after 00Z, w/LCLs 1500-2500` AGL, so an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.  We`d insert a svr mention into the grids, but would
rather reserve that for Sunday, in which the dryline will be a
little sharper/further east, and parameters mentioned above a bit
more favorable for severe wx than today`s.  W/the dryline further
east on Sunday, this will result in critical fire wx conditions in
some areas west of the dryline, and we`ve put the Guadalupes into a
Fire Wx Watch as a result.  Monday, continued leeside troughing/sw
flow will push the dryline even further east, where it will remain
on the eastern fringes of the CWA thru the rest of the week,
favoring slight chances of convection each day there.  Longer range
models hint at more widespread convection possibly Thursday or so,
when a trough is forecast to pass north of the region.

Otherwise, temps should remain above normal for the most of the week,
coming back to near-normal in the extended as the aforementioned
trough approaches and thicknesses fall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  94  72  92 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       61  95  61  93 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         73  92  72  94 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  70  93  66  95 /  10  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  87  59  83 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          60  90  60  91 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          50  86  49  88 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  69  95 /  20  20  20  10
Odessa                         71  94  69  95 /  20  10  20  10
Wink                           66  96  66  96 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
720
FXUS64 KMAF 212326
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions continue across the terminals with a thunderstorm
currently affecting KINK. Storms will continue in this area for
the next hour or so. These storms may head toward KHOB so will
amend if needed. Expect MVFR cigs to develop overnight at KMAF,
KHOB and possibly further west. Low clouds will begin to break by
late morning with VFR conditions returning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under
an upper-lvl ridge between two systems, one over the Great lakes
region, and the other over eastern OR.  Sfc observations show
return flow has backed a weak dryline up against the mountains,
w/dewpoints in the 50s as far west as KROW-KCNM-KMRF-KPRS.  East of
the dryline, sfc analysis shows a ridge of cape in excess of
3000J/kg extending from LBBB-K6R6, w/radar showing convection
developing over the Davis Mtns.  Coupled w/a shortwave in WV imagery
approaching thru Chihuahua, things could get somewhat busy shortly.
W/mid-lvl LR`s in excess of 7C/km over the northern half of the CWA,
dcapes in excess of 1000J/kg throughout, and deep lyr shear of 35-
45kts, large hail/damaging winds will be possible w/the stronger
storms.  However, forecast soundings develop impressive helicities
after 00Z, w/LCLs 1500-2500` AGL, so an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.  We`d insert a svr mention into the grids, but would
rather reserve that for Sunday, in which the dryline will be a
little sharper/further east, and parameters mentioned above a bit
more favorable for severe wx than today`s.  W/the dryline further
east on Sunday, this will result in critical fire wx conditions in
some areas west of the dryline, and we`ve put the Guadalupes into a
Fire Wx Watch as a result.  Monday, continued leeside troughing/sw
flow will push the dryline even further east, where it will remain
on the eastern fringes of the CWA thru the rest of the week,
favoring slight chances of convection each day there.  Longer range
models hint at more widespread convection possibly Thursday or so,
when a trough is forecast to pass north of the region.

Otherwise, temps should remain above normal for the most of the week,
coming back to near-normal in the extended as the aforementioned
trough approaches and thicknesses fall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  71  94 /  30  40  30  20
Carlsbad                       62  94  61  95 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  86  73  92 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  69  91  70  93 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 62  85  60  87 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  90  60  90 /  30  10  10  10
Marfa                          54  85  50  86 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  88  71  95 /  30  30  20  20
Odessa                         71  89  71  94 /  30  20  20  10
Wink                           71  95  66  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/29
344
FXUS64 KMAF 211950
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under
an upper-lvl ridge between two systems, one over the Great lakes
region, and the other over eastern OR.  Sfc observations show
return flow has backed a weak dryline up against the mountains,
w/dewpoints in the 50s as far west as KROW-KCNM-KMRF-KPRS.  East of
the dryline, sfc analysis shows a ridge of cape in excess of
3000J/kg extending from LBBB-K6R6, w/radar showing convection
developing over the Davis Mtns.  Coupled w/a shortwave in WV imagery
approaching thru Chihuahua, things could get somewhat busy shortly.
W/mid-lvl LR`s in excess of 7C/km over the northern half of the CWA,
dcapes in excess of 1000J/kg throughout, and deep lyr shear of 35-
45kts, large hail/damaging winds will be possible w/the stronger
storms.  However, forecast soundings develop impressive helicities
after 00Z, w/LCLs 1500-2500` AGL, so an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.  We`d insert a svr mention into the grids, but would
rather reserve that for Sunday, in which the dryline will be a
little sharper/further east, and parameters mentioned above a bit
more favorable for severe wx than today`s.  W/the dryline further
east on Sunday, this will result in critical fire wx conditions in
some areas west of the dryline, and we`ve put the Guadalupes into a
Fire Wx Watch as a result.  Monday, continued leeside troughing/sw
flow will push the dryline even further east, where it will remain
on the eastern fringes of the CWA thru the rest of the week,
favoring slight chances of convection each day there.  Longer range
models hint at more widespread convection possibly Thursday or so,
when a trough is forecast to pass north of the region.

Otherwise, temps should remain above normal for the most of the week,
coming back to near-normal in the extended as the aforementioned
trough approaches and thicknesses fall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  71  94 /  30  40  30  20
Carlsbad                       62  94  61  95 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  86  73  92 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  69  91  70  93 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 62  85  60  87 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  90  60  90 /  30  10  10  10
Marfa                          54  85  50  86 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  88  71  95 /  30  30  20  20
Odessa                         71  89  71  94 /  30  20  20  10
Wink                           71  95  66  96 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

84/44
221
FXUS64 KMAF 211755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through late this evening.
Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening, though
uncertainties in exact timing/location preclude mention in
current TAFS. Radar trends will continue to be monitored for
potential TSRA inclusion, with hail, gusty winds, and temporary
visibility reductions in heavy rain possible. Low ceilings look to
return overnight for all but CNM and PEQ, thus have included low-
end MVFR/IFR mention for affected terminals. Southeast winds will
continue through the period, with CNM and PEQ seeing a shift to
the west after 22/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper level ridge over the area with a closed low over the
OR/CA region.  This low will slowly wobble NE but additional lobes
will rotate down behind it.  This will put the region into SW flow
aloft and may bring shortwaves into the area.

After a couple cool days warm temperatures have returned with
readings running above normal and into the 90s.  With no cold fronts
expected for the coming week temperatures should be fairly
consistent day to day.  Highs for most of next weeks look above
normal and in the 90s with overnight lows staying on the warm side.

This morning low level moisture high with dewpts in the 60s for most
of the area.  Low clouds have spread up the Trans Pecos region and
across much of the Permian Basin as a SE flow keeps dewpts elevated.
A surface trough will help sharpen up a dryline today and Sunday
with possible storms along this feature.  CAPE looks fairly high but
shear not great.  Currently have a slight risk today mostly north of
the area... with a slight risk Sunday farther back to the west now
reaching the TX/NM border.  Day3 slight risk fairly similar for
eastern CWA.  Some of these storms could become severe with large
hail and damaging wind the main concerns.  Rain chances the rest of
the week do not look great but carrying some low pops in the
extended mainly for the eastern CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  68  87  67 /  10  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         90  72  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  93  69  92  66 /  20  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  59  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          88  64  87  58 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          87  53  88  49 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  89  68 /  20  30  30  20
Odessa                         91  68  91  66 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           93  67  92  61 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
712
FXUS64 KMAF 211131
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

MVFR/IFR cigs affecting all but PEQ and FST early this morning.
Expect stratus to scatter/lift by mid morning with VFR conditions
prevailing at all area terminals thereafter. Thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening however due to uncertainty
regarding exact timing/location of convective initiation, will not
include mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, gusty SE winds will persist
through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper level ridge over the area with a closed low over the
OR/CA region.  This low will slowly wobble NE but additional lobes
will rotate down behind it.  This will put the region into SW flow
aloft and may bring shortwaves into the area.

After a couple cool days warm temperatures have returned with
readings running above normal and into the 90s.  With no cold fronts
expected for the coming week temperatures should be fairly
consistent day to day.  Highs for most of next weeks look above
normal and in the 90s with overnight lows staying on the warm side.

This morning low level moisture high with dewpts in the 60s for most
of the area.  Low clouds have spread up the Trans Pecos region and
across much of the Permian Basin as a SE flow keeps dewpts elevated.
A surface trough will help sharpen up a dryline today and Sunday
with possible storms along this feature.  CAPE looks fairly high but
shear not great.  Currently have a slight risk today mostly north of
the area... with a slight risk Sunday farther back to the west now
reaching the TX/NM border.  Day3 slight risk fairly similar for
eastern CWA.  Some of these storms could become severe with large
hail and damaging wind the main concerns.  Rain chances the rest of
the week do not look great but carrying some low pops in the
extended mainly for the eastern CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  68  87  67 /  10  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       94  59  92  57 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         90  72  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  93  69  92  66 /  20  20  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  59  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          88  64  87  58 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          87  53  88  49 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           90  69  89  68 /  20  30  30  20
Odessa                         91  68  91  66 /  20  30  20  20
Wink                           93  67  92  61 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72

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