973
FXUS64 KMAF 191434
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
934 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADARS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION PERSISTING AROUND KGDP THIS
MORNING...WHICH CURRENT MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON. WE/LL DO A
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND UPDATE OTHER PARAMETERS AS
NECESSARY. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AT KCNM AND KHOB THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL START OF SUMMER IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY JUNE
21ST... THE REGION HAS SETTLED INTO THE SUMMERTIME WX PATTERN WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AS THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE. ANOTHER FEATURE OF SUMMER WX
FOR THIS AREA IS THE RARITY OF FRONTS AND NONE ARE SEEN OUT THROUGH
240HRS. SO EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY WX FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION UP TO NEAR CANADA. AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE NW THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST BUT NOT BE DISLODGED FROM THE
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING UNSEASONABLY WARM. THE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN ARE IN THE
MID 90S... EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR READINGS IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE FOR PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A FEW 60S FOR NORTHERN LEA AND
DAVIS MTNS/ALPINE/MARFA. SEE HINTS OF PATCHY STRATUS TRYING TO DEVELOP
AS OF 08Z... COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN PERMIAN
BASIN AND OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS... BUT EXPECT THIS WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WITH FEW CLOUDS THROUGH LATE MORNING UNTIL AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPS.
COULD SEE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. MODELS DO
DEVELOP QPF OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT MAY BE OVER DOING COVERAGE. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PW SHOULD REMAIN OVER AN INCH SO A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GET LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 98 72 95 72 / 10 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 98 73 97 73 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 100 71 101 70 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 98 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 100 73 97 73 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 92 69 94 69 / 30 30 30 30
HOBBS NM 97 70 96 70 / 20 20 20 20
MARFA TX 91 62 91 60 / 20 20 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 99 73 96 72 / 0 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 99 73 97 74 / 10 10 10 10
WINK TX 101 73 100 73 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/27
