Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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507
FXUS64 KMAF 040852
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
352 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper trough along the CA coast this morning will rapidly move
east and bring a chance of storms to the region beginning today.
By Tuesday this low will move over the 4 corners region and cross
the Rockies early Wednesday.  After it passes east another strong
low over the Pacific NW will dig down the West Coast and keep SW
flow over the region into the weekend.  Overall temperatures will be
near to above normal through the week.

There was good development of storms across the west yesterday and
some of them were strong but they did stay below severe levels.  The
atmosphere remains unstable as scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue early this morning across the Trans Pecos region.  Expect
storm coverage to increase through the day but especially during the
late afternoon into evening as a shortwave... daytime heating and
upslope flow combine.  Will have the potential for both severe wx
and flooding today.

Various model qpf not as in agreement as I would like but some are
developing heavy precip tonight.  With SE flow will have increasing
low level moisture with dewpts trying to climb into the 60s so
potential for heavy rain exists.  Model soundings at MAF show by 12z
this morning PW will climb to over 1 inch and remain elevated for
the next 24 hrs.  Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for
Southeast New Mexico and the Western Permian Basin but not expand it
at this time.  Could see Dawson county possibly added at a later
time.

As far as severe threat SPC has a slight risk over the western 2/3
of the area today and the eastern half of the CWA on Tuesday.  Main
hazards today will be large hail and damaging wind... but SPC points
out potential for very large hail.  With supercells expected
isolated tornadoes possible.  Have mention of severe in today but
models are trying to blow precip out of the area quickly Tuesday so
have not included severe wording yet on Tuesday.  The dryline looks
better Tuesday but does not match up with projected qpf.  The dry
line should only move as far east as a Hobbs to Marathon line by
late afternoon so potential for storms to develop farther west of
model qpf should continue through the day.  Any of these storms that
develop on the dryline may quickly become strong to severe and will
highlight in the HWO.

With more upper lows to the west and SW flow aloft potential for
additional storms mainly over the east will continue each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  61  79  56  /  40  60  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              78  64  79  64  /  30  40  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                82  56  83  52  /  50  60  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  66  86  67  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  62  86  61  /  40  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  51  75  53  /  30  40  20   0
HOBBS NM                   75  60  78  54  /  50  80  40  20
MARFA TX                   80  50  80  45  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  63  80  62  /  30  50  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  63  80  61  /  30  50  40  20
WINK TX                    83  62  87  57  /  40  50  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through late tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

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