Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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226
FXUS64 KMAF 282252
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
552 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals.  Isolated thunderstorms over portions of the
Permian Basin will likely diminish by 29/01Z, or shortly
thereafter.  Do not expect any terminals to be affected by TSRA,
although there will be more isolated storms Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 123 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

Deep easterly mid level flow is expected through Saturday between
an upper level ridge centered in the Rockies and a westward moving
disturbance in central Mexico. Very intense heating and upslope
flow should spark, mainly diurnally driven, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms in and near the orographically favored
mountains, mainly each afternoon and evening. High temperatures
are expected to remain above normal values as 850 millibar
temperatures warm a couple of degrees, despite the deep easterly
flow.

By late Sunday through next Thursday guidance consensus is
indicating that the upper level ridge will shift eastward toward
the Plains and Mississippi Valley Region with weak upper level
weakness developing in the Rockies. This should allow
temperatures to remain above normal with the best chance of
convection remaining across western areas from the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains eastward to the southeast New Plains and upper
Trans Pecos Region of west Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  97  73  97 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       70  97  71  97 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         75  97  76  97 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  72  95  73  95 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 67  88  67  88 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          61  89  65  89 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           73  97  73  98 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                         74  97  75  96 /  10  10   0  10
Wink                           73  97  74  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/12

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