Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 302338

638 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014



Can expected scattered storms near most TAF sites through the evening
as a cold front approaches the area. Very gusty wind possible
with these storms... blowing dust will reduce vsbys to local MVFR.
Wind will become northerly overnight.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

Surface troughs located along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico
border and across southeast New Mexico is combining with very
intense heating to produce the development of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across the Eddy county plains and
Guadalupe and Davis mountains this afternoon. Expect activity to
continue to increase in coverage tonight across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas as low level convergence associated
with a cold front pushes south into the forecast area. Also aiding
in the chance of thunderstorms tonight will be the retrogression
of the upper high from west Texas back west toward Arizona and New

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River tonight and Thursday. This will push the better chance of
convection to areas mainly south and west of the Pecos River
during the day Thursday. Behind this front high temperatures
Thursday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
The chance of thunderstorms will continue Thursday night and
expand northeastward again to include the western and central
Permian Basin due to a shortwave tracking into the area from the
northwest with some warm advection taking place above and north of
the front.

For Friday through next Monday the front is forecast to stall
along and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance
of thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south
and west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the front.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler air
behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover expected
areawide as well.

Beyond Monday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms going mainly in
the mountains along a surface trough with temperatures warming
toward normal.




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