Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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319
FXUS64 KMAF 301701
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1201 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and for much of the
night at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Winds
are expected to be mainly easterly at 5 to 15 mph. Some TEMPO MVFR
ceilings are expected around sunrise Sunday at KMAF, KINK, KHOB.

12



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Another round of thunderstorms is moving south/southeast out of
New Mexico and over the Upper Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.  Will
include TSRA at all but KCNM and KHOB, where light rain may
persist for a couple of hours.  MVFR ceilings have developed ahead
of the convection, and will lift as the thunderstorms pass.
However, MVFR ceilings may again form along and behind a cold
front which will push south through all the terminals this
morning.  Have only included temporary low ceilings for now since
it is unclear if they will develop, and for how long.  Expect VFR
conditions to prevail later this afternoon, although lower
ceilings may form again tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
As advertised, thunderstorms developed Friday evening and overnight
across southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  As one MCS exited the
the southeast portions of the CWA, another MCS continues to develop
over portions of southeast New Mexico.  This second area of rain is
expected to spread into the Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos region
later this morning and perhaps into higher elevations of southwest
Texas later this afternoon.  For this reason, we have adjusted rain
chances upward for these areas, while slightly lowering rain chances
over eastern portions of the forecast area that received earlier
rains with the first MCS and are likely more stabilized.  We have
opted to cancel the previous Flash Flood Watch as widespread
potential for flash flooding has diminished in these areas.

Ongoing convection has likely been aided by a combination of upper
level disturbances moving in northwest upper flow, and an
approaching cold front moving into the area.  As the cold front
makes its way southward, models continue to show the favored areas
of precipitation shifting southward later today as well.  Expected
CAPE values will be sufficiently high to warrant a chance for some
storms to reach severe levels today.  However 0-6 km bulk shear is
not terribly impressive either.  Thus, we tend to support SPC`s
thought that severe storm potential is marginal for today.

One notable difference in the models from yesterday is seen in the
strength of the upper ridge that is expected to develop just west of
the CWA the next few days.  This pattern change should result in
significantly drier weather across much of the area beginning
Sunday.  While a surface trough is still expected to strengthen from
the Central Plains into southwestern Texas on Tuesday, it appears
that thunderstorm chances will remain limited for central and
eastern portions of the forecast area.  Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the surface trough over western
portions of the CWA...especially on Tuesday and Thursday next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/03

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