Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 241715

1115 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015


See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.



Conditions slowly continue to improve most terminals, w/models
suggesting brief periods of VFR cigs/visibilities this afternoon.
An upper trough over AZ will open, shear, and pss thru West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico overnight, bringing a brief shot of
precipitation all terminals. Forecast soundings bring VLIFR
cigs/visibilities to KMAF/KHOB as -SHSN moves thru, while IFR
conditions look to develop KCNM as -SHSN moves thru there. KINK
and KFST could see IFR conditions as well, but remain warm enough
for -SHRA. KPEQ may see -SHRA as well, but remain VFR. A scouring
west wind behind the departing trough will scatter out skies to
VFR by 15Z Wednesday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/


See 12z aviation discussion below.


Low ceilings are expected to remain over the area during the morning
hours and mostly clear out by the afternoon.  Winds will be light
and variable this morning.  A cold front is expected to move into
the area late this afternoon/early this evening with northerly winds
behind it.  There is a slight chance of low ceilings/visibilities
tonight for most of the terminals.  There is also a slight chance of
light freezing rain tonight for CNM and MAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

Upper closed low over AZ this morning will swing into NM later today
and will pass across the area overnight.  A broad upper trough will
swing down across the center of the country Wednesday and Thursday.
Another strong upper trough will work down the West Coast Friday and
Saturday and start approaching the area by early next week.  All
this adds up to unsettled wx for the region into next week.

Have some light radar returns this morning north of the area over
Eastern NM that should be associated with a shear axis attached to
the AZ low.  This axis is expected to lift northward taking those
echos/light precip away from the area.  As of 10z have no precip
falling across the area and none expected this morning so will
cancel the Winter Weather Advisory with package issuance.  Will
issue a SPS and mention possibility of some slick roads remaining
into the morning.  Across the Midland/Odessa area most roads are
dry as yesterdays precipitation has sublimated.

Light wind this morning will not have time to come around to the
south today before another boundary moves through and shifts it back
to the north.  There is a question of how much sunshine will be seen
today as various guidance keeps the area broken to overcast all
day... but model RH at the different levels not showing that much
cloud cover present.  Early this morning low clouds not showing up
well on satellite but observations indicate stratus covers most of
the area with high clouds across northern CWA.  Believe today will
start out cloudy and should lose the low clouds during the day with
some sunshine expected by afternoon.  Yesterday MAF set a daily
record min max with a high of 24... smashing the old record of 40
degrees from 2010.  Will be staying toward the cold side of guidance
again today with highs expected to make into the 40s north of the
Pecos river with 50s and 60s south of it.  Wednesday still looks
like the warm day of the week as a south wind returns with highs in
the 60s becoming widespread.  Another cold front will blow into the
area late Wednesday/early Thursday with north wind quickly
returning.  Highs in the 40s and 50s Thursday with more 30s across
the north on Friday.  Temperatures recover over the weekend with 70s
becoming widespread by Sunday.

The approaching low may produce some showers late this afternoon or
evening over SE NM then spread across the area tonight.  Some of
this precip tonight may change over to a rain/freezing rain mix
mainly over the Eastern Permian Basin.  Pops too low to issue any
kind of winter wx product but will mention in HWO.  Could see some
light snow drift down into the northern CWA late Thursday/early
Friday with precip of rain during the day and mixed precip overnight
continuing through the weekend.  Currently have multiple periods of
low pops/low confidence so will not get too excited about any
particular day.






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