Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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931
FXUS64 KMAF 180209 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
909 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
We have sent an update to the forecast to decrease PoPs especially
n of the Pecos River. Isolated PoPs to the west with tstms still
moving swd near the mtns and showers/tstms still lingering across
the far s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs
possible at most terminals Friday morning. Currently, conditions
have improved and all TAF sites are VFR. Thunderstorms remain
confined to the higher terrain and Big Bend regions this evening,
currently not affecting any terminals. There are a few thunderstorms
that have popped up across SE NM so will continue to monitor radar
trends and amend when needed. Generally northeast winds across the
region and expect light easterly winds through the TAF period.
Thinking at least MVFR (possibly IFR) cigs will return early Friday
morning and stick around through mid morning. Currently have mention
at all but PEQ and FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the conus
with a shortwave currently moving over Oklahoma on the backside of
this upper trough.  This shortwave is sending a cold front southward
toward the CWA this afternoon.  Upper level lift is being enhanced
over the region as a result of shortwaves moving over/near the
area.  The cold front, which is entering into the northern CWA, will
enhance lift as well.  There is an abundance of moisture across the
area, so showers and thunderstorms are currently developing and
moving across the CWA.  Some of these storms have the potential to
become severe with CAPE values forecast to be well over 1000 J/Kg
and 0 to 6 km bulk shear around 30 kts.  Gusty winds, hail, and
brief heavy rain will be the main threats with these storms.  High
temperatures today will be highly dependent upon the timing of the
front and the amount of sunshine.

The cold front will finish pushing through the area tonight ending
up against the higher terrain by Friday afternoon.  This will be the
main area for showers and thunderstorms, along with the Lower Trans
Pecos, on Friday as the upper trough moves eastward.  A lee surface
trough will be present across far West Texas and eastern New Mexico
so this will aid in lift for thunderstorm development. Cooler
temperatures will be present across the area on Friday with highs
about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

The upper trough and main area of upper lift will be east of the
region by Saturday, so precipitation chances will begin to
decrease.  Although the area will be in west to northwest flow aloft
with a surface trough present, shortwaves may move down over the
area and provide enough lift for thunderstorm development.
Generally expect storms on Saturday to be confined to the higher
terrain, but convection may occur across the northeast CWA as a
shortwave approaches.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above
normal values beginning on Saturday as upper ridging builds over the
area.  Many places will experience temperatures in the triple digits
over the weekend.  Temperatures will remain hot through early next
week as the upper ridge dominates the weather pattern.  Due to this
ridge, expect thunderstorm chances to remain across the higher
terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  88  70  98  /  10  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              65  86  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  92  70 100  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  76  94  77  97  /  30  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  90  73  98  /  20  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  88  69  93  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   64  87  69  97  /  10  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   60  86  62  92  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  89  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  67  88  72  99  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    69  93  74 102  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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