Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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681
FXUS64 KMAF 021712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A few thunderstorms
are expected to form in the mountains this afternoon through early
this evening. These storms should remain south and west of the
terminals. There is some chance late tonight that a brief period
of MVFR ceilings may form at a few of the terminals but confidence
was no high enough at this time to include. Later shifts will need
to monitor. Winds will generally be southeast at 5 to 15 mph and
gusty at times.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will primarily be out of the south to southeast through the
period.  Winds will pick up in intensity late this morning and will
remain elevated through the early evening hours.  Low clouds are
possible around 12z Wednesday for all terminals except CNM and PEQ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Center of 5h anticyclone will be located INVOF SW NM/Far W TX
today and MSLP gradient will be tighter and farther w resulting in
stronger se winds that last longer. As such the surface trough and
associated thermal ridge will set up farther w. Consensus is that
85h temps will cool about 4C across the PB going from 31C to 27C
at MAF. Yesterday high temps where about 17F over 85h temps pointing
to a high of 98-100. However for areas farther w 85h temps will not be
much cooler and L100s will still be common in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio
Grande. Good news is that Wed/Thur 85h temps will continue to cool,
even into the M20C range in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio Grande where high
temps will fall back into the M90s/U90s. This cooler wx is in part
due to a pattern change as the 5h anticyclone develops well off to
the e and a much deeper e-se flow will be in place. In this pattern
change mid level mstr will have a chance to push into the area, at
least the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB. As usual there are model differences
GFS/Canadian are dry and NAM12/ECMWF are more moist. Still too difficult
to make a binary decision and as such will opt to include low order
PoPs in aforementioned areas Thur/Fri. Models agree that a cold front
will mostly remain to the n into the extended forecast, with ECMWF
the outlier sagging the front into PB next Sunday with mid level
ridging in place? Seems best scenario for front to arrive this far
s would be thru convective enhancement. Mid level wly will likely
sag farther s in the Mon/Tue time frame which would allow for theta-e
ridge across the swrn states to move into at least the wrn CWFA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  71  94  70  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  76  95  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  71  98  70  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  99  78  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  71  90  71  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          98  67  90  64  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  100  67  93  66  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   94  59  87  59  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  73  94  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  73  92  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   105  76  95  73  /  10  10  10   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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