Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 210951

451 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014


See Aviation Discussion below.



Return return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a 40+kt LLJ forecast
to develop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest will have the best chances later today. Latest
buffer soundings for KMAF suggest brief IFR cigs at KMAF this
morning, which received 1/4-1/2" of rain yesterday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/


The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.






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