Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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219
FXUS64 KMAF 241945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance across south Texas will track toward
the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this evening and bring those
areas a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening.

Beyond this evening the weather will be quiet across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico Friday through Sunday due to a healthy
upper level ridge centered across the southern Rockies and
southern High Plains. Temperatures will continue to be above
normal in this pattern through the weekend. By late Sunday a
developing upper level trough across the Great Lakes and northeast
states will send a cold front south toward the forecast area. At
this time the ECMWF guidance is most bullish pushing the front
into the area with some precipitation. This could be reasonable
given the amount of convection that the consensus guidance is
developing along and behind the front next week. For now did not
yet want to jump all in on the ECMWF scenario but did increase
pops especially across the north Monday through Thursday and did
mention isolated thunderstorms in a few locations in the north in
a few of the periods. Later shifts will obviously need to monitor.

Trended high temperatures next week close to climatological
normals with the possibility of the front moving in.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  72 100  71  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             101  73 101  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                99  72 101  69  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  78 102  77  /  20  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  68  91  69  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   96  69  99  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  61  90  60  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  74 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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