Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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813
FXUS64 KMAF 311110
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings and visibility are not prevalent this morning, but
could see some affecting KMAF under some mid and high cloud breaks.
Further west, it appears thunderstorms will affect KPEQ at the
beginning of the period.  Not certain these storms will hold
together and affect KINK or KHOB, so will leave out for now. Expect
VFR conditions most of the day at all area terminals, but
thunderstorms should be on the increase this afternoon and tonight.
Have included TSRA at most area terminals after 31/21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

Widespread unsettled weather is expected through Thursday due
to a slowly approaching southern stream system currently centered
in western Arizona.

For today favor the NAM model in depicting precipitation decreasing
this morning due to stabilization behind convection from last
night. However, expect an uptick in thunderstorm development by
this afternoon across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau due
to intense heating and topography combined with strongly diffluent
flow at 250 millibars and remnant outflow boundaries and mid level
remnant convective vorticity disturbances. Some of these storms
will be strong to severe given 0 to 6 kilometer shear values of 25
to 35 knots and capes in excess of 2000 j/kg.

Thunderstorms will continue tonight and increase in areal coverage
especially across the Permian Basin due to an advancing cold
front and a 25 to 35 knot low level jet developing this evening
ahead of it in continued strongly diffluent flow aloft. Some of
the thunderstorms will be strong to severe tonight and could
produce heavy rainfall. Will mention these potential hazards in
the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Wednesday and Thursday the southern stream upper low is forecast
to approach and track over southeast New Mexico and west Texas.
Will continue mainly chance to likely pops for showers and
thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall could be heavy given the slow
movement of the upper low and progged precipitable water values 1
to 2 standard deviations above normal. Will mention the potential
for heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook. Temperatures will be well below normal both days with
widespread clouds and precipitation beneath the cold core system.

Precipitation chances should diminish and be mainly confined to
extreme eastern sections of the Permian Basin and lower Trans
Pecos Region Thursday night and Friday as the upper low finally
pushes east into central Texas. Temperatures will still be well
below normal especially in the east Friday.

Beyond Friday the upper low is forecast to only drift slowly south
into southern Texas this weekend into early next week. In this
regime most of the precipitation should remain east of the
forecast area. Will continue the mainly dry forecast for now
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Will mention mainly
diurnal isolated thunderstorms across the Davis and or Guadalupe
Mountains due to unstable upslope flow. Will continue to monitor
the potential for fringe precipitation to back westward into the
eastern Permian Basin these periods due to the proximity of the
system to the south and east. Temperatures are still generally
expected to be below normal under cyclonic flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  65  77  61 /  30  60  60  60
Carlsbad                       92  63  78  60 /  20  20  50  50
Dryden                         88  68  84  65 /  40  40  50  50
Fort Stockton                  91  66  81  61 /  40  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 82  59  73  55 /  20  20  40  40
Hobbs                          88  60  75  57 /  30  40  60  60
Marfa                          84  54  77  53 /  30  30  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           88  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
Odessa                         87  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
Wink                           91  63  80  61 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/12

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