Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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425
FXUS64 KMAF 150947
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
447 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Tuesday...radar imagery is indc
isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly in the Permian
Basin and along an arc from Tatum to Carlsbad to south of Pecos.
Another area of showers are moving into the northern tier of
counties in the CWA...from Gaines County to Scurry County.

Tricky forecast today in relation to convection and temps. 00Z
models did a poor job in initializing the convection. Pretty much
went with isolated/scattered pops through tonight with a weak
shortwave and upper level diffluence...and mainly chance pops for
Wednesday as a shortwave moves over the CWA in the NW flow aloft.
Some of the storms could be strong...especially Wednesday with a
little more shear. Locally heavy rain is possible with storms
today through Wednesday. There is a wide range of temps between
the different models for today and Wednesday. With the expected
cloud cover have went down the middle with temps...with Wednesday
a little hotter as the thermal ridge will be a little closer to
the CWA.

A strong shortwave will drop south through the Plains states
Wednesday night/Thursday. This will drive a cold front through the
CWA down to the Rio Grande and continue the threat of convection.
Temps on Thursday will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The front
will stall along the Rio Grande on Friday and will wash out. Have
confined pops on Friday to the mountains and the Rio Grande
Valley. Have kept temps below normal for Friday as well.

A ridge will begin to build north out of Chihuahua over the
weekend and into early next week. This will bring hot
temperatures to the CWA...especially Sunday through next Tuesday
with widespread 100+ temperatures across the CWA. Have isolated
pops each aftn/evening from the Guadalupe Mtns through the Davis
Mtns with intense elevated heating and a surface trough providing
a focus for convection.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 88  71  91  71  /  40  40  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              91  75  93  74  /  40  30  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                92  71  94  72  /  40  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 101  76 100  79  /  10  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           94  72  97  74  /  20  20  30  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  67  87  68  /  40  40  30  30
HOBBS NM                   85  68  89  68  /  40  40  30  30
MARFA TX                   89  61  88  64  /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  71  94  72  /  40  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  91  72  93  73  /  30  30  30  40
WINK TX                    94  73  96  74  /  20  20  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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