Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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309
FXUS64 KMAF 280540
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND BIG BEND
AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WHERE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE STALLED.  CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
1000 TO 2000 J/KG BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LOW AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL SO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z MAF SOUNDING WAS 1.28 INCHES
SO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE CWA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  BEGINNING ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.  THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO THE LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXPANDS WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND SHOULD NOT WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
MOSTLY STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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