Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 230502

1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014


The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.



Despite convection moving north from the Davis Mountains, think TSRA
will stay west of KPEQ, KINK and KHOB or decrease before arriving at
these sites.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

An upper level high centered over the Mississippi River valley has
built slightly further west today than yesterday. This is evident
in visible satellite imagery showing only cumulus developing in
the higher elevations and in southeast New Mexico, and even that
is ragged cu. The past couple of days have seen convection reach
the Midland/Odessa area but today it will be more limited and
generally west of the Pecos River.

The high will remain stationary through the weekend and into early
next week causing a repeat pattern of slightly above normal highs
and a slight chance for storms out west. Things begin to change by
the middle of next week as a deep upper level trough moves across
the western CONUS and into the Central Plains. All models are in
good agreement with this feature as well as an accompanying
surface front on Wednesday night. Convection will begin to spread
east and southeast ahead of the front Wednesday then will continue
Thursday and perhaps even into Friday before upper ridging once
again starts to dry us out.






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