Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 190900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016


Aside from a few showers across the Lower Trans Pecos, it has been
a quiet night across the area. The region will remain under the
influence of two main features today - a ridge over the
southeastern CONUS and a potent upper trough (for this time of
year) which will continue to develop southward over the Northern
Plains. These features, as well as southeasterly surface flow,
will keep moisture elevated across the area, with precipitable
water values ranging from about 1.0 to 1.75 inches. The upper
shear axis will shift eastward today, focusing the best chance of
thunderstorms from the Western Low Rolling Plains southwestward
through the Lower Trans Pecos and into the Big Bend Area, where
additional lift ahead of a weak disturbance progged to lift
northeastward out of Mexico could enhance convection. Shear
remains relatively minimal, and given the high precipitable water
values, locally heavy rain continues to be the primary threat.
Localized flooding concerns may also exist, especially over areas
that have received rainfall over the past couple of days.
Temperatures today will warm a couple of degrees over yesterday`s
highs, particularly through the Trans Pecos and western/central
portions of the Permian Basin, where highs in the low to middle
90s are possible. Highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected
elsewhere, mainly due to expected rain and cloudcover.

Model guidances continues to be in good agreement regarding a cold
front that will push southward through the area on Saturday, as
the aforementioned Northern Plains upper trough deepens and moves
eastward toward the Great Lakes. Current timing has the front
edging into northern zones by midday Saturday, and slowly
progressing south of the Pecos River by Saturday evening. Given
the timing of the front, northern portions of the forecast area on
Saturday may struggle to warm out of the low to middle 80s, while
locations south will still likely reach the upper 80s to lower
90s. Also, given the ample moisture that will remain in place,
have maintained chance PoPs areawide this weekend due to
convergence along the southward moving frontal boundary as well as
weak perturbations progged to move over the area in southwesterly
flow aloft. Temperatures Sunday in the wake of the front will be
well below normal, with highs in the 80s for much of the area, and
even some upper 70s possible for the higher terrain. Below normal
temperatures and rain chances will persist into next week, as
another weak trough is progged to develop over the Desert
Southwest and move toward the region. Models diverge somewhat on
the handling of the evolution of this feature beyond midweek next
week, thus have not deviated much from the blended model solution
at this time.


Big Spring                     90  71  88  68 /  30  20  50  40
Carlsbad                       94  69  88  67 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         89  72  92  72 /  50  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  90  69  90  66 /  30  10  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 89  65  82  61 /  20  10  30  30
Hobbs                          90  65  83  62 /  10  20  40  30
Marfa                          83  58  85  57 /  40  20  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           92  70  88  67 /  20  10  40  30
Odessa                         91  70  88  67 /  20  10  40  30
Wink                           95  71  92  69 /  10  10  40  40


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