Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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838
FXUS64 KMAF 090518
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Any thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening should remain north and west of the
terminals. Light winds are expected overnight through mid to late
Tuesday morning. Winds will generally become south to southwest at
10 to 20 mph and gusty in locations Tuesday afternoon.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR wx will be possible near CNM til 02Z with tstms in the area,
otherwise VFR conditions tonight areawide. A modest low level jet
will help keep s winds near 10-12kts MAF/FST thru the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Residual moisture and afternoon heating are allowing for a few
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the Davis and Guadalupe
Mountains. A few showers may also develop in the low rolling
plains near Snyder and Colorado City, but they will be few and far
between. The heaviest rain will be out west but scattered activity
and decent storm movement should prevent any flooding problems
today. This activity will diminish after sunset and though
isolated afternoon storms will be possible through Wednesday, most
locations will be dry with highs going well above normal.

Things change late Wednesday as a cold front moves into west
Texas. Models have not been in good agreement with the timing of
this feature and though this has improved with the latest run,
there is still some uncertainty. Give the Canadian model credit,
it has been the most consistent with an early arrival and most
models are coming into line with this solution. The ECMWF has been
the slowest model but even it has now brought the front to I-20 by
00Z Thursday, though it does still hold off the strongest push of
cold air until Friday afternoon. All of this is being driven by a
large upper level low over south central Canada. A shortwave
moving south of the low will provide the initial push for the cold
front Wednesday evening. The weak nature of the trough and the
zonal upper flow will prevent a significant surge of cold air so
the front will stall in the Pecos River valley. Isentropic lift
behind the front will produce abundant clouds and some light rain
which will be the main cause of cooler temperatures on Thursday. A
stronger upper trough will drop into the Central Plains Friday
which will provide the stronger cold air advection and help
temperatures drop even further. In fact we could be looking at
widespread temperatures in the 50s for the first time this fall.
Stayed fairly close to MEX guidance the first few days of the
forecast but beginning Friday MEX appears too warm. Not only is it
warmer than other models but it is also too warm when compared to
its own raw surface and 850mb extrapolated temps. European
guidance seems a little off as well but is too cold as surface
dewpoints will probably not be low enough to allow for it`s temps
so went with a blend of the MEX/ECWMF. Weak upper dynamics will
keep rain chances through Friday night though rain amounts will be
light. An upper ridge will amplify over the western U.S. late in
the weekend allowing for a slow warm up early next week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  94  71  95  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  95  73  96  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                68  94  70  93  /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  71  96  72  99  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  96  73  97  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  84  64  86  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  91  67  91  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  87  63  88  /  20  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  95  73  97  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  70  95  73  97  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    70  97  73  99  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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