Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 141708

1208 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

See 18Z aviation discussion below.


VFR and light south winds through the TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014/


An amplified upper pattern prevailed across the ConUS this morning,
and contributed much toward parking the cool surface ridge over the
region this morning.  Temperatures were in the mid 30s at Marfa as
of 14/08Z, so will continue with the Freeze Warning for the Marfa
Plateau from 14/10Z until 14/15Z.  The surface ridge will be slow to
exit the region, resulting in slightly below normal high
temperatures today.  Temperatures will warm above normal Wednesday
as a sharp ua trough over the Mississippi River Valley progresses
slowly eastward, and is replaced by an ua ridge.  The flow aloft
will flatten somewhat through late this week, with the nearly zonal
flow aloft Thursday instigating a surface trough developing over/
near the region ahead of a weak cold front.  High temperatures
Thursday are expected to rise near record levels as a low level
thermal ridge will accompany the surface trough.  Precipitation
chances through the week will be nil as moisture will be lacking
through the atmospheric column.

The flow aloft will amplify again into next weekend, with a split
flow pattern developing.  While an ua trough takes shape over the
Great Lakes region Friday, and is regularly reinforced thereafter,
a weak ua trough currently well west of the Baja Peninsula will
gradually be drawn west northwestward and over the southwestern
ConUS.  The ua trough will undercut a semi permanent ua ridge over
the western U.S. and eventually traipse eastward over the region.
Unfortunately, this is well into the extended forecast period and
difficult to forecast.  It could pass overhead by Monday, as some
medium range models suggest, or meander aimlessly west of the region
through mid next week as others portend.  Since there is so much
uncertainty, will not include any appreciable rain chances at this
time.  After the fairly hot temperatures Thursday, a cold front is
expected to move into the area Friday and knock temperatures down to
only a few degrees above normal through the weekend.  Due to the
mentioned ua trough over the Great Lakes, a reinforcing shot of
cooler air will result in near normal temperatures early next week.






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