173
FXUS64 KMAF 251121
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF STRATUS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN TO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. EXPECT MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT MAF AND HOB... AND TO
LESSER EXTENT INK AND PEQ. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AROUND THE AREA
TODAY BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A CALMER NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A LONE SUPERCELL MOVED OUT
OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BEFORE
DYING OUT. SOME MORE CONVECTION IS FIRING OFF IN THE HIGHLANDS OF
NORTHERN MEXICO WEST OF PRESIDIO...AND NOW CONVECTION IS FIRING
UP IN REEVES AND PECOS COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AS DEW PTS REMAIN HIGH.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE HAVE CONTINUED THE ISOLATED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS BRING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WITH BULK SHEAR VERY WEAK WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE SEVERE STORMS
AS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PULSE STORMS. TEMPS THIS AFTN
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS.
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE
ATMOSPHERE. STILL...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DECENT MOISTURE HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH H85 TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER HAVE WIDESPREAD
90S WITH TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ON MONDAY THE
NAM BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CWA WITH THE DRYLINE NEAR THE
PERMIAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. STILL...HAVE CONTINUED THE ISOLATED CHANCES OVER THE
DAVIS...CHISOS...AND CHINATI MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS. HAVE WARMED TEMPS A BIT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE TRANS
PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE DRYLINE...HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL...OR WHEN IT WILL
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE ISOLATED CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LEFT HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING HILLS.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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