Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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773
FXUS64 KMAF 260814
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Panhandle this morning will begin to
be displaced eastward Monday by upper trough moving across from the
NW.  As the trough passes east the ridge will be pushed back to the
west later in the week becoming centered over the 4 corners region.

Surface temps at or above 100 degrees will continue for most of the
area today and Monday.  Could see highs pushing 108 degrees today on
parts of the Rio Grande with readings up to 106 along the Pecos
River Valley.  However should see a slight dip in temps after the
upper ridge is displaced.  By the middle of next week highs in the
mid to upper 90s will become more common.  A surface trough out west
will keep a S to SE wind across the area and dewpts in the 50s and
60s.  This will keep overnight temps up.

Satellite shows few clouds over the center of TX as the ridge pushes
the convection out to the edges.  Storms should develop over the
mountains and adjacent plains this afternoon as good low level
moisture... day time heating... and orographic lift combine.  Some
model qpf does try to develop a little precip over the Eastern
Permian Basin but this looks doubtful... most precip should remain
west of the Pecos River.  Similar rain area on Monday and Tuesday
but precip may develop farther east into Lea county.  As the ridge
sets up over the west this could put the region into NW flow aloft
which would be more favorable for bringing rain down into the area.
This would favor the northern CWA but currently model qpf is not
bringing any MCS down into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                 100  75  99  74  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                   103  74 102  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     104  76 101  79  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX              102  74 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              94  69  93  69  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                      100  70  98  71  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       93  64  92  63  /  20  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       102  74 100  74  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                     102  76  99  75  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                       106  76 104  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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