Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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257
FXUS64 KMAF 201145
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Light south winds will increase
and become gusty from the southwest and west this afternoon, then
decrease again tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will persist today while a lee surface trough
strengthens just north of the region, increasing west winds at the
surface for much of the CWA. Will have increasing high clouds
today but with strong downsloping winds in play, temperatures
should have no problem warming to near 80 most places. Winds in the
Guadalupe Mountains look to reach High Wind Warning criteria for
several hours this afternoon so will go ahead and upgrade the High
Wind Watch to a Warning.

Attention then turns to our next cold front expected Saturday,
bringing much colder temperatures and the potential for wintry
precipitation Sunday and Monday. The initial wind shift associated
with the front will move through much of the region Saturday morning
then hang up against the higher terrain during the afternoon. This
will allow temperatures to warm above 70 in areas near and south of
the Pecos River Valley while areas to the NE will remain in the 60s.
Much colder air arrives Sunday, with decreasing temperatures
expected throughout the day. High temperatures on Monday will range
from near 50 southwest to near 30 northeast.

Precip chances look to increase Sunday afternoon, as an upslope flow
regime and increased isentropic upglide develops across much of the
region. Precip should start as all rain but as temperatures continue
to drop Sunday night, the chances for wintry precip will increase
generally near and north of I-10. Model forecast soundings suggest
more of a light freezing rain/freezing drizzle precip type however
could see some sleet mixed in as well. Areas south of I-10 should
remain all rain. Precip will end from west to east Monday afternoon
however some areas across the Permian Basin could see total ice
accumulations up to a tenth of an inch. Amounts may be adjusted
upward if confidence increases. Will continue to mention the
potential for wintry precip in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. In
addition, have decided to issue a Special Weather Statement due to
the potentially dangerous impacts.

Beyond Monday, temperatures look to warm somewhat but remain about
5 degrees below normal through at least mid/late week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon temperatures will soar 10 to 15 degrees above normal today
causing minimum afternoon humidities to drop below 15 percent across
much of the area. An upper level trough will cause winds to increase
in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains mixing into the adjacent
plains where critical fire weather conditions are expected.
Conditions will improve after sunset and a cold front moving into
the area on Saturday will bring more moisture through early next
week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 8 PM CST /7
     PM MST/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe
     Mountains...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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