Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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822
FXUS64 KMAF 162006
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
306 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Another tranquil night is on tap across the area tonight as a ridge
of high pressure continues to dominate sensible weather patterns.
Expect clear skies and generally light and variable winds to
continue through Friday.

A transition to a more active weather pattern will begin on Friday
afternoon as a cold front extending from a large low pressure system
over the Great Lakes sinks southward through the area. Upstream
observations indicate a slower southward progression of this
feature, which is echoed by this morning`s model guidance. Thus,
feel that while Friday will see high temperatures 5-10 degrees
cooler than today over the northern half of the forecast area,
locations over the southern half of the area will not see much
change as the front will not sink to the Rio Grande Valley until
overnight Friday night.

Moisture will be on the increase as southeasterly flow sets in
across the area in the wake of the front, and also ahead of several
disturbances progged to impact the region beginning on Saturday and
Sunday. While the first disturbance is not expected to have much
impact as it lifts toward the central Rockies, a more potent
disturbance on Sunday night through Tuesday could generate some
precipitation across the area. While models are all indicating light
QPF area-wide on Monday and into Tuesday, feel that there will be
two main areas where much of the activity will be focused.  The
first is closer to the lingering baroclinic zone near the Rio
Grande, which could generate showers and thunderstorms over the
lower Trans Pecos beginning on Sunday.  The second is over higher
terrain in the west as well as the upper Trans Pecos, where upper
level support will be greater for storms to develop. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms persists through next week, as the long
wave trough in place to the west will finally push through the area
near the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  82  51  72  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              54  83  53  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                52  83  54  72  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  56  93  58  83  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  94  57  81  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  83  53  69  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   51  79  49  70  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   44  88  45  79  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  85  52  76  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  84  53  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    52  89  55  78  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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