Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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807
FXUS64 KMAF 011137
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Recent rains have left quite a bit of moisture this morning
creating widespread dense fog. Normally southwest winds will keep
our skies clear but this morning is a rare exception and thus
forecast confidence is low on when improvement will occur. There
is a cold front in the TX Panhandle moving south that will bring a
northerly wind shift and combined with daytime heating should lift
CIG/VIS to at least MVFR 15-18Z. Eventually VFR conditions are
expected this afternoon but again confidence is low beyond the
first 6 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak pressure gradient and abundant low level moisture has resulted
in areas of dense fog across the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico
Plains and Guadalupe Mountains early this morning. It looks like it
will take the cold front with its increasing northerly winds to
scour out the fog later this morning, so will issue a Dense Fog
Advisory until 15z for the aforementioned areas. The cold front
will move through the forecast area today and keep temperatures
well below normal. In addition guidance is indicating that a short
wave trough across the Big Bend could combine with the southward
moving front to produce a slight chance of thunderstorms today
across the Big Bend.

For Monday through Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
that has plagued the region lately is forecast to track from
southwest Mexico northeast to eastern Texas by Wednesday. As the
system approaches the Big Bend Tuesday, a slight chance of showers
will be possible in that area. High temperatures are expected to
remain below normal Monday but a return to above normal temperatures
is in the offing Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low
forms.

By late Wednesday an amplifying upper level trough across the
eastern half of the nation will push a dry cold front into the
area. Below normal temperatures are expected behind this front
Thursday but a return to above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected next Friday and Saturday as another
surface lee trough forms.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10

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