Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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189
FXUS64 KMAF 280526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will back today as return flow surges NW into West Texas.
Latest sfc analysis puts the dryline just east of the CWA, and
this should begin moving back into the area w/strengthening flow,
first thru KFST, then KMAF, then KINK/KPEQ. Convective temps will
be reached behind the dryline as it moves NW, resulting in high-
based cu 10-14 kft agl. A 40+kt LLJ is forecast to develop near
the end of the forecast period, but any resulting stratus
advection should occur after 06Z Sunday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The dryline has pushed east into west central Texas today giving
us our first day without convection anywhere in our area in a
while. You could feel the dry air this morning with low
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s, down from the upper 60s and
70s seen the past several days. Relative humidities this
afternoon are generally down in the teens but fortunately winds
are remaining light, preventing critical fire weather conditions
from developing.

An upper low will deepen over the west coast Saturday causing
pressure falls in the Rockies and pulling the dryline back west
into the Permian Basin. An upper ridge axis over west Texas will
prevent anything other than isolated to widely scattered
convection from developing, though shear values will be high
enough to allow one or two storms to be severe. Sunday the ridge
axis shifts east and the dryline pushes farther west...that
combined with a weak shortwave trough moving across the area and
we should see an increase in convection and potentially severe
storms. Storms will remain in the forecast through the middle of
the week due to slow easterly movement of the west coast low and
again there will be a chance for a few storms to become severe
each day. The low will finally move east of the area by Thursday
or Friday pushing dry air into the western Permian Basin and
keeping rain chances mainly in the eastern Permian Basin and
lower Trans Pecos.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  65  87  65 /  10  20  40  40
Carlsbad                       94  62  97  64 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         93  69  91  70 /  20  20  40  20
Fort Stockton                  95  68  95  69 /  10  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  60  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          92  63  88  62 /   0  10  40  20
Marfa                          88  51  89  56 /   0   0  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           95  68  90  69 /  10  20  40  30
Odessa                         95  68  91  69 /  10  20  40  30
Wink                           96  69  96  68 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44

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