948
FXUS64 KMAF 210310
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1010 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LITTLE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ARE MOVING OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, WHICH IS PREVENTING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FROM DECREASING. DESPITE THESE STRONGER WINDS,
DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE SPEEDS TO DROP OFF THROUGH 21/05Z OR
21/06Z. IN ADDITION, RH/S WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21/06Z, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. EVEN THOUGH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS, WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME DUE TO
THE ABOVE REASONS. WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED OFF, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21/02Z...BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KHOB AND KMAF THE
LONGEST WITH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DECREASING BEFORE 21/18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A
RESULTANT CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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