Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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718
FXUS64 KMAF 221837
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Southwest flow aloft will prevail over southeast New Mexico and west
Texas through the upcoming week, as the region remains sandwiched
between an upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS and a persistent
ua trough over the western ConUS.  Ample moisture will funnel
northeastward over the region within this flow, as indicated by
higher theta e air around h5.  Considering surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s through the week, PWats will be at least 1.5 inches, if
not 2 inches at times, or 1 to 2 S.D. above normal.  Will keep PoPs
going most areas, and most periods, through the week under this
regime as models also bring an assortment of perturbations/MCVs
either north around the western fringe of the ua ridge, or
northeastward ahead of, or associated with, the ua trough to the
west.

Flash flood guidance is lowest over Eddy County in SE NM where heavy
rainfall/flash flooding occurred yesterday (Aug 21st).  It looks
like rain chances will be highest elsewhere through tonight, so will
forego issuance of a Flash Flood Watch at this time.  However,
models appear to latch on to a disturbance, if not a combination of
disturbances Tuesday and Wednesday and bring them over the region. A
southwest to northeast axis of heavier rainfall is displayed by
several models, but in different locations.  We will hold off on
issuance of a Flash Flood Watch at this time, but one may be
forthcoming for SE NM and/or a good portion of west Texas in the
next 12 to 24 hours.

This upper pattern persists into next weekend, but some models are
now indicating the upper ridge becoming more prevalent by then. Will
keep temperatures near or slightly below normal this week, but rain
chances could be on the decrease, and temps on the increase as early
as Thursday, but most likely Saturday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  88  70  90 /  30  40  30  20
Carlsbad                       66  87  67  85 /  30  50  30  30
Dryden                         70  91  70  93 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Stockton                  68  90  66  91 /  20  50  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  78  60  76 /  40  50  40  40
Hobbs                          66  85  64  82 /  20  40  40  30
Marfa                          59  81  58  82 /  40  50  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  70  91 /  30  40  40  30
Odessa                         70  89  69  91 /  30  40  40  30
Wink                           70  90  67  89 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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