Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

226
FXUS64 KMAF 210926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  72  93  69  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              96  73  96  70  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  72  91  70  /  30  30  40  40
DRYDEN TX                  98  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           94  71  93  70  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  65  79  63  /  30  30  40  40
HOBBS NM                   92  67  91  66  /  30  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   86  63  85  60  /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  74  94  71  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  93  74  93  71  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    97  76  95  72  /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.