Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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847
FXUS64 KMAF 231755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 23/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will for the most part prevail across all area
terminals through 24/18Z. A quasi-stationary cold front
(presently extending from about 20 S KGDP - KINK - Lamesa) will
serve as the focus for scattered TSRA this afternoon, with
coverage extending into the evening as moist upglide commences
above this front after sunset. As such, have gone pessimistic at
KCNM, KHOB, and KINK where TEMPOs are warranted. MVFR visibility in
TSRA and wind gusts to 40 kts are possible at these locales.
Storms are firing over the Davis Mountains and may eventually
impact KFST during the late afternoon hours, with similar MVFR
visibility and wind gusts to 40 kts (maybe more here, depending on
how much heating occurs over the Pecos River valley). At this time
we don`t see a strong enough signal at KPEQ to introduce TEMPO
TSRA here, but will monitor. Less of a chance at KMAF, although a
few of the past HRRR runs indicate some spotty -SHRA/TSRA in the
late afternoon/evening hours over the Permian Basin. Bears watch.

Conditions will gradually improve around midnight local time, with
a lot of convective debris overhead. There are indications that
moist upslope on the east side of the Guadalupes/Delawares will
produce MVFR to IFR conditions toward daybreak Monday. Have kept
VFR conditions at KCNM and KPEQ and will await further data.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the area
especially for CNM and HOB. Light and variable winds will come
around to the north beginning this morning as a cold front moves
into the area around 15z. The strongest winds appear to be at CNM
and winds are expected to shift to the east this afternoon. Winds
will likely be variable with some gusts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper-lvl ridge extending across the srn CONUS,
from SoCal to the Florida.  To the north, a trough was ejecting into
nrn MN.  Closer to home, sfc obs and area radars show a cold front
moving thru the Texas Panhandle, trailing the trough.  This feature
looks much weaker/shallower than last week`s front, w/only modest
pressure rises along the front.  Models differ somewhat on how far
it makes it into the FA, w/the NAM bringing it into mid-CWA, whereas
the GFS and ECMWF stall it a little further north.  Going w/the NAM,
it looks as though the front will stall diurnally this afternoon,
before retreating north just a little overnight as a 25-30kt LLJ
develops. This will be the main focus for convection, w/best chances
over SE NM along the front this afternoon.  If the GFS pans out, SE
NM could see significant rainfall.

Otherwise, thicknesses should bottom out Monday, but temps will
remain above-normal Monday afternoon before the ridge intensifies
over the SW CONUS later in the week, pushing temps once more into
the upper 90s most locations.  Unfortunately, models keep the theta-
e ridge to the west, affording little chances of rain in the
extended.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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