Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 031733

1233 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015


Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.



Expectation continues to be the development of SHRA/TSRA this
afternoon and evening, first across higher terrain to the west,
and then spreading eastward. However, given the storms are
expected to be isolated, uncertainties regarding timing/location
preclude mention in the current TAFs. Models are also hinting at
the possibility of fog/low ceiling development early Monday
morning, though this would be contingent on rainfall this
evening. Thus, will defer to later issuances to include mention of
precipitation and/or fog in area TAFS. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail over the next 24 hours, with breezy southeast winds
continuing through the forecast period.



The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip
back across the western CWA.

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand
this watch both in coverage and time.

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily


NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.




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