Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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277
FXUS64 KMAF 251913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge extends w-e from NM into OK leaving MAF`s CWFA
in ely mid level flow aloft. Water vapor reveals absence of
identifiable shrtwv trof and with lack of a sfc boundary there is
little opportunity for shra/tsra today. Sat-Sun there will be
little sensible wx change, just hot. 85h temps from around 28C
across the PB to 31C across SE NM will continue to support high
temps from the U90s to L100s. Hottest along parts of the Rio
Grande, especially from Big Bend to Terrell Co where high temps
are right at 105 and lows in the mid/upper 70s, thus continuation
of heat advisory there. Amplification of mid level ridge farther
nw and ern U.S. trof signal a pattern transition to NW flow aloft
by Tue/Wed. There`s a good chance that a weak boundary will be
across the nrn CWFA Monday. Mid level theta-e ridge, hier sfc
mstr, and better SB instability will be n of the boundary.
Forecast already has low probability PoPs across the n and this
still looks good based on latest data. Shrtwv trof within NW Wed
along with convection will push a boundary into W TX plains, but
staying n of CWFA until Thur. Based on boundary and NW flow
Thur/Fri would seem to most favored days for precip at this point.
Still too far out to commit to any hier PoPs than are in the
forecast. Higher likelihood is that temps will cool off to below
normal Thur/Fr.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73 100  72 100  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              77 101  75 100  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 101  72 100  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  78 104  77 103  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  97  73  97  /   0  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  91  68  92  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   69  98  69  97  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  91  61  91  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  99  73  99  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73  98  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    74 100  74  99  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.

&&

$$

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