Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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142
FXUS64 KMAF 121137
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Stratus and fog covers much of the area this morning with the
densest fog on the edge of the low clouds. Most TAF sites will
remain LIFR/IFR through the morning with VFR conditions becoming
widespread by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Similar to yesterday, persistent low level moisture is once again
resulting in another round of fog this morning. Several areas with
visibilities at or below 1/4 mile so the Dense Fog Advisory will
remain in affect for much of the CWA through 15Z although
visibilities may improve before then. Upper ridging will
persist today and tomorrow with temperatures expected to be well
above normal. Forecasting highs today to be about 5-10 degrees
warmer than yesterday, with cloud cover expected to clear somewhat.
Rain chances will remain nil today and most of tomorrow however
continued low level moisture will remain in place, resulting in a
repeat of the past several nights with patchy fog across portions of
the region.

Meanwhile, an eastward moving ua trough will enter the western ConUS
today, swing through the Rockies Saturday and enter NM Saturday
night. Still looks as though the best upper forcing in our area will
be across the northern half of the area so will keep best chances
for showers and thunderstorms confined mainly to SE NM and
northern Permian Basin Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
Thunderstorm chances then shift to across eastern zones late
Sunday morning with the arrival of an associated pacific front
moving east through the region. Expect gusty west winds and
somewhat cooler temperatures behind the front. Gusts are expected
to quickly subside overnight Sunday. Portions of SE NM and the
Davis Mtns will finally see low temps near or below freezing early
Monday morning. Cooler air will continue to filter southward
Monday as a surface ridge settles into the region, holding high
temps slightly below normal through mid week. Tuesday morning
looks to be the coolest, before return flow brings low level
moisture back to the region.

The next shot for rain could be sometime mid-late week with the
potential of another westward moving Pacific ua trough. Not sure
models will remain consistent with the current timing/track/strength
of this feature so will only carry slight chance PoPs for portions
of the region Wednesday night/Thursday until confidence increases.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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