Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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374
FXUS64 KMAF 201927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
227 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Westerly flow aloft prevails over the region today as flat shortwave
ridging precedes a southern stream shortwave trough.  Although high
temperatures this afternoon will be around 5 degrees below normal, a
few thunderstorms could develop over the Davis Mountains under steep
mid level lapse rates.  Do not expect much rainfall with any storms
today, but they could produce gusty winds due to a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Low level moisture will increase more tonight and
Tuesday on southerly/southeasterly winds with a disparate dryline
forming over the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau.  Models are not
aggressive in developing precipitation, due in part to a cap along
the dryline.  However, surface temperatures will warm above normal
and perhaps serve to break the cap Tuesday afternoon, maybe even
moreso if a subtlety hinted at model shortwave trough impinges upon
the area.  If convective initiation is realized, around 1500 J/Kg
SBcape, mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km bulk
shear of 45-55Kt could yield a few severe thunderstorms.

Increasing westerly flow aloft will result in downslope winds at
the surface, and a low level thermal ridge expanding eastward over
the area Wednesday.  Not looking for record high temps, but highs
will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.  It appears any convection to
affect the area will be possible only along the eastern fringe of
the forecast area as the dryline mixes eastward.  Fire weather
concerns will be high, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains where
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect, and perhaps over the SE NM Plains
if surface winds end up strong enough for critical conditions.
Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

A plume of mid/upper level moisture on the equatorward side of an
upper jet will spread over the region Thursday, with elevated
convection possible on the nose of a 70Kt h5 jet.  The dryline
becomes disparate in model output again Thursday afternoon, but not
sure this will be correct due to height/surface pressure falls and
the resulting backing low level winds.  Will expand slight chance
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon to account for this.  Not only will
a low level jet nose into the region Thursday night, sharpen the
dryline and aid in driving it westward, but a Pacific front will
push eastward into the area.  Both of these factors could aid
convective development well into the night, so will keep at least
slight chance of thunderstorms then, especially over the Stockton
Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.  More severe storms will be
possible.  The ua trough will eject northeastward over the Texas
Panhandle Friday, which should result in windy conditions over much
of the forecast area.  Will keep a dry forecast going through next
weekend, and Monday too, as mainly westerly flow aloft will prevail
over the region.  It appears temperatures will remain above normal
for the duration.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week with the exception of an isolated
thunderstorm across the Davis Mountains.  This will result in
further drying of the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up
to above normal beginning on Tuesday.  Fire weather concerns will be
low today with most places experiencing RH values of at least 20
percent except across the far west CWA and wind speeds will be
fairly light.  Dry air will once again come into areas along and
west of the Upper Trans Pecos on Tuesday, with elevated fire
weather conditions in the Guadalupes as winds will be near 20 mph.
This dry air will spread further eastward on Wednesday with single
digit RH values across a good portion of the area and winds will
become elevated out of the west to southwest.  A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains on Wednesday as winds above
20 mph are expected. This watch may need to be extended to include
the Van Horn area and southeast New Mexico as winds across these
areas will be near 20 mph.  Friday appears to have a high potential
for fire weather with winds at or above 20 mph and RH values near 15
percent across a large portion of the area.  Dry air appears to
remain across the area on Saturday but winds are not expected to be
as strong.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  84  60  85  /   0  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              54  85  63  89  /   0  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                46  85  56  86  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  58  82  65  91  /  10  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  85  60  88  /  10  20  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  78  55  77  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   48  82  52  83  /   0  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   41  79  45  80  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  85  62  88  /   0  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  54  85  62  87  /   0  20  20  10
WINK TX                    51  88  59  89  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/67

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