Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

FXUS64 KMAF 222050

250 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

Current TTU Mesonet observations are indicating that winds have
shifted to the north across the South Plains and northern portions
of the Permian Basin.  This is really just the beginning of a
significant weather change that will occur later tonight into
Tuesday morning as a cold front moves into southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas.

Unlike models runs from just a few days ago that indicated a dry
frontal passage, these last few models runs have consistently
pointed to a wet solution, especially over Lea County New Mexico and
the northern Permian Basin Tuesday morning.  A chance of rain is
also forecast over the rest of the county warning forecast area into
Tuesday afternoon.

Similar to the previous forecast, assessment of 12Z model sounding
data through BUFKIT indicated the potential for what I would call a
glancing blow of winter weather over the northern and central
portions of Lea County and over the northwest Texas Permian Basin.
Precipitation will likely start as rain overnight, then transition
to a wintry mix of rain and snow across the northern half of Lea
County and for northwest portions of Texas Permian Basin including
Gaines and Dawson County.  Overnight temperatures look a hint too
warm to collect on roadways and at least right now, the greatest
potential for snow appears to be in a very small window of time,
perhaps from 6 am to 10 am Tuesday morning.  Thereafter, model
soundings suggest both drying and some warming.  As the day
progresses, areas further south will have a chance for some rain.

Overall, the impacts from this event should be minor.  Keep in mind
that if temperatures are just a few degrees cooler tomorrow morning
than expected, impacts on early morning travel could end up being
more significant.  There is at least some concern that a wintry
precipitation mix tomorrow morning could present travel issues with
slick conditions early on.  However, no snow or ice accumulations
are expected, except perhaps on grassy areas.

As quickly as this upper trough arrives, we should see it exit on
Wednesday.  A warming trend should take us through Christmas with
our next chance for precipitation after tomorrow being next Saturday.


ANDREWS TX                 35  43  28  50  /  60  40   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  45  30  52  /  50  40   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  47  25  52  /  10  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  46  52  32  55  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  44  28  53  /  10  40   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          31  42  24  45  /  10  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  45  25  49  /  60  30   0   0
MARFA TX                   34  41  15  48  /  10  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    35  46  26  50  /  30  40   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  48  28  51  /  30  40   0   0
WINK TX                    41  48  27  55  /  20  40   0   0






Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:

Check us out on the internet at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.