Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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457
FXUS64 KMAF 270917
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
417 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ACCOMPANYING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL INCREASE
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED WEST OF THE REGION, RESULTING IN
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA, STALLING OUT IN THE VICINITY OF I-10 THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON,
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION COULD ALSO
RESULT IN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
SHEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WITH PRECIPITATBLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COMBINED
WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES, WITH MIDDLE 50S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY, AND
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO MOVE OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL MCS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER JET. HAVE UPPED
POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO SEE IF THE MODELS DISPLAY CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BOUNDARY EDGING INTO THE AREA NEXT
SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT
FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  90  68  91  71  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    91  69  94  68  /  40  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      94  71  94  72  /  40  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  68  92  69  /  40  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              82  65  87  66  /  30  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       87  65  88  65  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                       86  55  87  55  /  30  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  67  93  70  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  67  93  70  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                        92  69  96  70  /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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