Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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366
FXUS64 KMAF 171727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern around this forecast is potential for TSRA. Visible
satellite shows less clouds today than previou several days and
LI/s show there is surface based destablization ongoing. Surface
boundaries are lacking so initially higher terrain w of TAF sites
is favored for initiation which may then move into/near CNM
first. Overnight good agreement that storms may impact INK/HOB/PEQ
TAFS. Have opted to include TEMPO TSRA CNM/HOB and PROB30
elsewhere, except FST, at 04Z. MVFR CIGS/vsby with TSRA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

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