Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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183
FXUS64 KMAF 290232 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
932 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Grids have been updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch Box # 308
until 08z Wednesday for Borden, Dawson and Scurry counties of west
Texas.

Also increased pops in those 3 counties in the watch box overnight
and increased qpf grid.

Updated products to be sent shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected overall. Will have a few storms near MAF
through 01z that could have gusty outflows with blowing dust
producing brief MVFR vsbys.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
clusters across our region. The first area is across the higher
terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has
moved into northern Mexico. These storms are producing some heavy
rain and should continue to move east into the evening hours. The
other main area of convection appears to be forming along a weak
boundary across the Permian Basin. These storms are moving very
slowly south and with daytime heating should continue to develop.
Some Hi-Res models show a thunderstorm complex forming near
Amarillo this afternoon and part of it moving south toward our
region overnight. Although this is a low probability, it is not
out of the question due to high amounts of moisture and some
instability across the region. Will leave at least some low PoPs
in tonight across the northern half of the area.

The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the
northwest, though mid level heights won`t be too high. Showers and
storms will stay mostly confined to the mountains tomorrow before
more extensive drying occurs areawide Thursday. The center of the
ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week
allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and
New Mexico. Some of this moisture will spread east across the
Permian Basin this weekend so we could see an uptick in showers and
storms just in time for the July 4th holiday. Temperatures will
increase to near normal tomorrow through the end of the week. High
temperature guidance has come down slightly for this weekend, likely
due to increasing moisture. For now will stay on the conservative
side and continue to keep highs mostly in the 90`s to near 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  90  69  90 /  20  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  93  69  96 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         73  95  74  97 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  69  90  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  85  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          65  91  66  94 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          63  84  62  87 /  20  30  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           69  93  70  95 /  20  10   0  10
Odessa                         70  92  71  94 /  20  10   0  10
Wink                           69  93  70  95 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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