047
FXUS64 KMAF 191741
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 19/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CAVU CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 20/18Z.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS (WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS) THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
70
184
FXUS64 KMAF 191117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
561
FXUS64 KMAF 190820
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 67 95 61 / 0 10 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 98 69 97 63 / 0 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 96 66 96 61 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 102 72 101 70 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 70 98 66 / 0 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 88 65 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 94 65 94 59 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA TX 88 50 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 98 68 97 63 / 0 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 97 69 96 64 / 0 0 10 10
WINK TX 100 66 100 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
49/72
891
FXUS64 KMAF 190532
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE THRU THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE
AROUND 15Z-17Z WITH TROF E. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE IN THE
EVENING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...
ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...
LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND
UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
825
FXUS64 KMAF 182246
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DIMINISH
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY
BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND
NEAR RECORD HEAT.
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAR EASTWARD THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KMAF SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THE DRYLINE QUICKLY MOVED
EAST OF MIDLAND. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TTU MESONET
SHOW THAT THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED TO NEAR A FLUVANNA TO ST. LAWRENCE
LINE AT PRESENT TIME. PRIMARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
MIX FARTHER TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS KEPT THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FROM JUST EAST OF MIDLAND
TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FARTHER EAST. I WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT. A 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA
AND AREAS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA HAVE FORECAST 700 MB
TEMPS OF 13-14C AT 00Z THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
OVERCOME A CAP LIKE THAT...PROBABLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TIME FOR DRIER AIR MIX FARTHER EASTWARD....WHICH
OF COURSE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR AREA AND CERTAINLY DIMINISH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WHILE THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE OVER SCURRY COUNTY
PRESENTLY...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT YET SEEN VIA RADAR OR SATELLITE.
FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW ORDER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO REACH STRONG LEVELS...AND WILL PLACE THAT WORDING IN TODAY`S
GRAPHIC.
WE START TO SEE SOME INTERESTING CHANCES BY MID WEEK. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALVIN COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT POP GRIDS
FORECAST AND RE-EVALUATE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 95 60 95 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 96 61 97 / 10 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 65 95 62 96 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 68 100 67 101 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 97 65 98 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 93 59 93 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 50 87 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 95 62 97 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA TX 66 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 101 61 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
80/03
873
FXUS64 KMAF 181947
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND
NEAR RECORD HEAT.
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAR EASTWARD THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KMAF SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THE DRYLINE QUICKLY MOVED
EAST OF MIDLAND. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TTU MESONET
SHOW THAT THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED TO NEAR A FLUVANNA TO ST. LAWRENCE
LINE AT PRESENT TIME. PRIMARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
MIX FARTHER TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS KEPT THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FROM JUST EAST OF MIDLAND
TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FARTHER EAST. I WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT. A 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA
AND AREAS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA HAVE FORECAST 700 MB
TEMPS OF 13-14C AT 00Z THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
OVERCOME A CAP LIKE THAT...PROBABLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TIME FOR DRIER AIR MIX FARTHER EASTWARD....WHICH
OF COURSE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR AREA AND CERTAINLY DIMINISH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WHILE THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE OVER SCURRY COUNTY
PRESENTLY...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT YET SEEN VIA RADAR OR SATELLITE.
FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW ORDER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO REACH STRONG LEVELS...AND WILL PLACE THAT WORDING IN TODAY`S
GRAPHIC.
WE START TO SEE SOME INTERESTING CHANCES BY MID WEEK. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALVIN COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT POP GRIDS
FORECAST AND RE-EVALUATE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 95 60 95 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 96 61 97 / 10 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 65 95 62 96 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 68 100 67 101 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 97 65 98 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 93 59 93 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 50 87 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 95 62 97 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA TX 66 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 101 61 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
80/03
113
FXUS64 KMAF 181713
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN
STRENGTH THIS EVENING. MOSTLY WEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED TODAY BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MAF HIT A DAILY RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT 103 DEGREES WITH A 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIR. AS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A WARM PATTERN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL OFF THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY... MAY TIE A RECORD HIGH AT MAF AGAIN TODAY... BUT SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MID 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR EAST TODAY AS COULD BE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC STORM ALVIN MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER SEVERAL DAYS... WILL START WITH INTRODUCING
LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO FROM THERE.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWFA...SE
NM...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND NRN PB. 25KT WINDS AT AROUND 5KFT WILL
COME OUT ACROSS THE DESCRIBED AREA AND WITH THE BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS SE NM/NRN PB SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND 20-30 MPH MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM AND UNTIL AROUND 8
PM...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WHILE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS SUPPORT DRY TO VERY DRY
FUELS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN A DRY/UNSTABLE STATE AS SEEN BY
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND HAINES INDICES OF 5 TO 6. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BRIEF RF WX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA
ESPECIALLY IF MSLP GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER FARTHER S.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
99
442
FXUS64 KMAF 181123
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
S WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS HAVE PERSISTED AT FST/MAF WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 5KTS AT HOB/INK/PEQ/CNM. WINDS WILL TURN W-SW BY 17Z AT MOST
SITES AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS BY 20Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED AROUND 00Z WITH 15-20KTS AT CNM/HOB/MAF. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED TODAY BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MAF HIT A DAILY RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT 103 DEGREES WITH A 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIR. AS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A WARM PATTERN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL OFF THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY... MAY TIE A RECORD HIGH AT MAF AGAIN TODAY... BUT SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MID 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR EAST TODAY AS COULD BE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC STORM ALVIN MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER SEVERAL DAYS... WILL START WITH INTRODUCING
LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO FROM THERE.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWFA...SE
NM...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND NRN PB. 25KT WINDS AT AROUND 5KFT WILL
COME OUT ACROSS THE DESCRIBED AREA AND WITH THE BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS SE NM/NRN PB SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND 20-30 MPH MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM AND UNTIL AROUND 8
PM...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WHILE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS SUPPORT DRY TO VERY DRY
FUELS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN A DRY/UNSTABLE STATE AS SEEN BY
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND HAINES INDICES OF 5 TO 6. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BRIEF RF WX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA
ESPECIALLY IF MSLP GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER FARTHER S.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
497
FXUS64 KMAF 180859
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED TODAY BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MAF HIT A DAILY RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT 103 DEGREES WITH A 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIR. AS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A WARM PATTERN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL OFF THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY... MAY TIE A RECORD HIGH AT MAF AGAIN TODAY... BUT SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MID 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR EAST TODAY AS COULD BE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC STORM ALVIN MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER SEVERAL DAYS... WILL START WITH INTRODUCING
LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO FROM THERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWFA...SE
NM...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND NRN PB. 25KT WINDS AT AROUND 5KFT WILL
COME OUT ACROSS THE DESCRIBED AREA AND WITH THE BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS SE NM/NRN PB SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND 20-30 MPH MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM AND UNTIL AROUND 8
PM...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WHILE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS SUPPORT DRY TO VERY DRY
FUELS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN A DRY/UNSTABLE STATE AS SEEN BY
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND HAINES INDICES OF 5 TO 6. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BRIEF RF WX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA
ESPECIALLY IF MSLP GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER FARTHER S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 100 62 96 60 / 10 0 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 101 66 97 63 / 10 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 98 64 93 61 / 10 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 99 67 98 66 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 100 67 97 64 / 0 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 89 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 98 60 93 58 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 88 48 87 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 101 64 96 61 / 10 0 0 10
ODESSA TX 101 64 95 61 / 10 0 0 0
WINK TX 102 62 98 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
49/72
795
FXUS64 KMAF 180530
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING THRU
12Z. SW-W WINDS BY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15-20KTS AS SFC PRESSURE
FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...
BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...
LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
071
FXUS64 KMAF 172247
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH BASED FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY BY MID
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU THE WRN
CONUS...AMPLIFYING A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS/SE NM AND RESULTING IN
ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS. KMAF WAS 99F AT 18Z.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH...AND TEMPS DROP INTO ONLY THE UPPER
90S SATURDAY. INCREASING SW FLOW W/THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP A
DRYLINE OVER THE EXTREME ERN EDGE OF THE FA
SATURDAY...W/SINGLE-DIGIT RH/S TO THE WEST RESULTING IN CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. TODAY/S MODELS
AREN/T QUITE AS STRONG ON WINDS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AS 24 HRS
AGO...BUT STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS NEVERTHELESS. CURRENT
FIRE WX WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE...AND WE/LL LET THE MORNING SHIFT
MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON WHERE TO ISSUE THE RFW.
OTHERWISE...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FIRST...AND
SWING THRU THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FIRE WX THREAT
OVER THE NW ZONES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM REASSERTING ITSELF...AND TEMPERATURES AT BAY. IN
FACT...W/THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH...MODELS ATTEMPT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE NE ZONES TUESDAY...BUT W/LITTLE EFFECT.
BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TO TREND TEMPS A
LITTLE COOLER INTO THE EXTENDED...AS MODEL THICKNESSES HAVE DECREASED OVER
WHAT THEY WERE 24 HRS AGO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TREND THE THERMAL
RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST EACH DAY...TO ROUGHLY OVER KELP BY
MIDWEEK. THUS...A REPRIEVE ON THE WARMER TEMPS FOR NOW. WE/LL
BEGIN TRENDING DOWN...BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE MOS NUMBERS JUST YET.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK SCANT. MODELS BEGIN REBUILDING THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...W/THE LATEST
ECMWF DEVELOPING CONVECTION EACH DAY IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING
THURSDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE GRIDS DRY...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 66 98 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 73 98 60 97 / 0 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 67 94 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 99 67 98 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 97 61 96 / 0 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 61 95 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 53 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 97 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 72 98 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 100 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
72/44
471
FXUS64 KMAF 171930
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU THE WRN
CONUS...AMPLIFYING A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS/SE NM AND RESULTING IN
ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS. KMAF WAS 99F AT 18Z.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH...AND TEMPS DROP INTO ONLY THE UPPER
90S SATURDAY. INCREASING SW FLOW W/THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP A
DRYLINE OVER THE EXTREME ERN EDGE OF THE FA
SATURDAY...W/SINGLE-DIGIT RH/S TO THE WEST RESULTING IN CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. TODAY/S MODELS
AREN/T QUITE AS STRONG ON WINDS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AS 24 HRS
AGO...BUT STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS NEVERTHELESS. CURRENT
FIRE WX WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE...AND WE/LL LET THE MORNING SHIFT
MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON WHERE TO ISSUE THE RFW.
OTHERWISE...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FIRST...AND
SWING THRU THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FIRE WX THREAT
OVER THE NW ZONES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM REASSERTING ITSELF...AND TEMPERATURES AT BAY. IN
FACT...W/THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH...MODELS ATTEMPT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE NE ZONES TUESDAY...BUT W/LITTLE EFFECT.
BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TO TREND TEMPS A
LITTLE COOLER INTO THE EXTENDED...AS MODEL THICKNESSES HAVE DECREASED OVER
WHAT THEY WERE 24 HRS AGO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TREND THE THERMAL
RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST EACH DAY...TO ROUGHLY OVER KELP BY
MIDWEEK. THUS...A REPRIEVE ON THE WARMER TEMPS FOR NOW. WE/LL
BEGIN TRENDING DOWN...BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE MOS NUMBERS JUST YET.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK SCANT. MODELS BEGIN REBUILDING THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...W/THE LATEST
ECMWF DEVELOPING CONVECTION EACH DAY IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING
THURSDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE GRIDS DRY...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 66 98 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 73 98 60 97 / 0 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 67 94 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 99 67 98 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 97 61 96 / 0 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 61 95 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 53 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 97 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 72 98 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 100 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
72/44
217
FXUS64 KMAF 171729
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SW AT OR UNDER 12 KTS...BUT
WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SW/W TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST CAN BE SUMMED UP IN A COUPLE WORDS: HOT AND DRY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS INCH UP OVER 30 C.
TODAY`S RECORD HIGH AT MIDLAND INTL OF 101 SET BACK IN 2001
SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX
WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SE NM...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. IT NOW
APPEARS ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING
WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A S/W AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OFFERS SOME BRIEF RELIEF TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 90S AND 100S. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME HOPE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
13
386
FXUS64 KMAF 171116
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED BUT WINDS WILL TURN SW-W TO S-SE LATER TODAY WITH
AN INCREASE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST CAN BE SUMMED UP IN A COUPLE WORDS: HOT AND DRY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS INCH UP OVER 30 C.
TODAY`S RECORD HIGH AT MIDLAND INTL OF 101 SET BACK IN 2001
SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX
WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SE NM...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. IT NOW
APPEARS ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING
WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A S/W AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OFFERS SOME BRIEF RELIEF TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 90S AND 100S. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME HOPE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
003
FXUS64 KMAF 170926
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST CAN BE SUMMED UP IN A COUPLE WORDS: HOT AND DRY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS INCH UP OVER 30 C.
TODAY`S RECORD HIGH AT MIDLAND INTL OF 101 SET BACK IN 2001
SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX
WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SE NM...THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. IT NOW
APPEARS ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING
WILL STAY EAST OF OUR AREA.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A S/W AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OFFERS SOME BRIEF RELIEF TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 90S AND 100S. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME HOPE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD
ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 101 68 98 62 / 0 0 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 103 72 99 64 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 102 63 97 58 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 105 71 100 69 / 0 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 102 68 98 65 / 0 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 93 64 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 98 62 94 57 / 0 10 10 10
MARFA TX 91 51 87 48 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 102 70 99 64 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA TX 101 71 98 66 / 0 0 10 10
WINK TX 103 65 99 60 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
49/29
534
FXUS64 KMAF 170519
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS
MOSTLY BELOW 12KTS WITH A LOOSE MSLP GRADIENT. LIGHT W-SW WINDS
BECOMING SE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
230
FXUS64 KMAF 162310
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DIMINISH BY
SUNSET AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE
ARKLATEX...ALLOWING BROAD...FLAT RIDGING TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS/SE
NM. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...W/LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON THE VISIBLE LOOP. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND AFTERNOON TEMPS
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE DOESN/T
MOVE MUCH...AND MODELS EVEN STRENGTHEN IT OVER TODAY...FOR THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OFF THE PACNW COAST WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING/
DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS...POSITIVELY TILTING AND REACHING THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 18Z SATURDAY OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SW FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROMPTING FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MODELS SHOW
BETTER MOISTURE TO LIE ACROSS THE DRYLINE/EXTREME ERN ZONES BY 18Z
SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW. TIMING OF THE TROUGH MAY
BE FAST ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE BEFORE IT
CLEARS THE ERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE WINDOW WILL BE
SHORT...W/THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER
00Z.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE TROUGH...AS
MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY...WEAKER ONE BEHIND THE FIRST. NET
EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE TO KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE FROM
REDEVELOPING...AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE COOLER 90S AS OPPOSED TO TRIPLE
DIGITS. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SECONDARY TROUGH...AND DIGS IT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AS IT FOLLOWS THE FIRST. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FIRE
WX CONCERNS LATER IN THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO MEET
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BE THE NORM AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FRIDAY...20 FOOT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 20 MPH SO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER. THIS WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS
TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 62 101 63 97 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 57 103 72 98 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 60 102 66 94 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 67 104 71 97 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 67 104 67 98 / 0 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 66 91 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 100 64 94 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 52 92 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 63 103 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 70 102 70 96 / 0 0 10 0
WINK TX 61 105 63 99 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27/44
593
FXUS64 KMAF 161945
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE
ARKLATEX...ALLOWING BROAD...FLAT RIDGING TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS/SE
NM. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...W/LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON THE VISIBLE LOOP. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND AFTERNOON TEMPS
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE DOESN/T
MOVE MUCH...AND MODELS EVEN STRENGTHEN IT OVER TODAY...FOR THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OFF THE PACNW COAST WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING/
DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS...POSITIVELY TILTING AND REACHING THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 18Z SATURDAY OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SW FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROMPTING FIRE WX CONCERNS...AS MODELS SHOW
BETTER MOISTURE TO LIE ACROSS THE DRYLINE/EXTREME ERN ZONES BY 18Z
SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW. TIMING OF THE TROUGH MAY
BE FAST ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE BEFORE IT
CLEARS THE ERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE WINDOW WILL BE
SHORT...W/THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER
00Z.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE TROUGH...AS
MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY...WEAKER ONE BEHIND THE FIRST. NET
EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE TO KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE FROM
REDEVELOPING...AND KEEP TEMPS IN THE COOLER 90S AS OPPOSED TO TRIPLE
DIGITS. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SECONDARY TROUGH...AND DIGS IT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AS IT FOLLOWS THE FIRST. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FIRE
WX CONCERNS LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO MEET
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BE THE NORM AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FRIDAY...20 FOOT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 20 MPH SO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER. THIS WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS
TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 62 101 63 97 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 57 103 72 98 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 60 102 66 94 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 67 104 71 97 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 67 104 67 98 / 0 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 66 91 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 100 64 94 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 52 92 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 63 103 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 70 102 70 96 / 0 0 10 0
WINK TX 61 105 63 99 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27/44
867
FXUS64 KMAF 161738
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CALM TO BELOW 10KT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL FIRE DANGER. UPPER RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH TODAY AND FRIDAY FEATURING THE
WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 30C WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S AREAWIDE. WE MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH RECORDS BOTH DAYS AT MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT: TODAY...102 SET IN
2000 AND 1996; FRIDAY...101 SET IN 2001. A STRONG CAP SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS
COULD FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AS A
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER AZ MOVES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED POPS IN WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH BROADENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. W TX AND SE NM WILL REMAIN AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO NOT MUCH RELIEF
IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING A COUPLE DEGREES
THIS WEEKEND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN SATURDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING BEHIND IT.
FIRE WX...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S DROPPING TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT ON A ROUTINE
BASIS STARTING TODAY. SINCE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY
AND FRIDAY, 20 FOOT WINDS WILL ONLY RISE TO 20 MPH OR GREATER IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY, AND STRUGGLE TO DO SO FRIDAY. THEREFORE,
WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN THE GUADALUPE`S TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LATE THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING. WILL NOT CARRY ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY DUE TO LESSER WINDS THAN
TODAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME AREAWIDE DURING THIS HOT SPELL.
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE VERY HIGH OVER THE GUADALUPE`S AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS TODAY, AND OVER THE SAME AREAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH
THE PERMIAN BASIN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
ONLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY AND RESULT IN STRONGER 20 FOOT WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27
821
FXUS64 KMAF 161125
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING DOWN
THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL FIRE DANGER. UPPER RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH TODAY AND FRIDAY FEATURING THE
WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 30C WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S AREAWIDE. WE MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH RECORDS BOTH DAYS AT MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT: TODAY...102 SET IN
2000 AND 1996; FRIDAY...101 SET IN 2001. A STRONG CAP SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS
COULD FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AS A
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER AZ MOVES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED POPS IN WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH BROADENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. W TX AND SE NM WILL REMAIN AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO NOT MUCH RELIEF
IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING A COUPLE DEGREES
THIS WEEKEND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN SATURDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING BEHIND IT.
FIRE WX...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S DROPPING TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT ON A ROUTINE
BASIS STARTING TODAY. SINCE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY
AND FRIDAY, 20 FOOT WINDS WILL ONLY RISE TO 20 MPH OR GREATER IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY, AND STRUGGLE TO DO SO FRIDAY. THEREFORE,
WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN THE GUADALUPE`S TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LATE THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING. WILL NOT CARRY ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY DUE TO LESSER WINDS THAN
TODAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME AREAWIDE DURING THIS HOT SPELL.
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE VERY HIGH OVER THE GUADALUPE`S AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS TODAY, AND OVER THE SAME AREAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH
THE PERMIAN BASIN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
ONLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY AND RESULT IN STRONGER 20 FOOT WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
29
898
FXUS64 KMAF 160943
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL FIRE DANGER. UPPER RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH TODAY AND FRIDAY FEATURING THE
WARMEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 30C WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S AREAWIDE. WE MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH RECORDS BOTH DAYS AT MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT: TODAY...102 SET IN
2000 AND 1996; FRIDAY...101 SET IN 2001. A STRONG CAP SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS
COULD FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AS A
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER AZ MOVES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE INCLUDED
ISOLATED POPS IN WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH BROADENS
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. W TX AND SE NM WILL REMAIN AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO NOT MUCH RELIEF
IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING A COUPLE DEGREES
THIS WEEKEND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN SATURDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF COOLING BEHIND IT.
FIRE WX...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH`S DROPPING TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT ON A ROUTINE
BASIS STARTING TODAY. SINCE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY
AND FRIDAY, 20 FOOT WINDS WILL ONLY RISE TO 20 MPH OR GREATER IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY, AND STRUGGLE TO DO SO FRIDAY. THEREFORE,
WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN THE GUADALUPE`S TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LATE THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING. WILL NOT CARRY ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY DUE TO LESSER WINDS THAN
TODAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME AREAWIDE DURING THIS HOT SPELL.
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE VERY HIGH OVER THE GUADALUPE`S AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS TODAY, AND OVER THE SAME AREAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH
THE PERMIAN BASIN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
ONLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
SATURDAY AND RESULT IN STRONGER 20 FOOT WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 99 64 100 67 / 0 0 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 101 61 103 70 / 10 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 99 61 101 63 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 105 69 103 71 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 100 67 101 68 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 91 66 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 97 59 97 63 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 90 50 91 53 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 101 63 101 70 / 10 0 0 10
ODESSA TX 99 65 101 72 / 0 0 0 10
WINK TX 102 62 103 65 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
67/29
383
FXUS64 KMAF 160517
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES THURSDAY
MORNING REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. 67
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
THE CUT OFF LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE A LITTLE WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BEEN ROUNDING
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SO
FAR NOTHING OF INTEREST HAS DEVELOPED HOWEVER THIS MAY CHANGE AS
WE APPROACH PEAK HEATING HERE IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AND WOULD ONLY BRIEFLY
AFFECT THE CWA BEFORE MOVING EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 90S BY MID AFTERNOON...HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS. WE WILL HEAT UP FURTHER TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 ON BOTH DAYS. LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR AND AROUND 105.
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE
WEEKEND. MOST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH
HOWEVER THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...KEPT PREVIOUS MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES. UNFORTUNATELY NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH THIS
FRONT ATTM.
FIRE WEATHER...
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID/HI CLOUD HAS DEVELOPED INTO
THE GUADALUPES/VAN HORN AND THE HWY 54 CORRIDOR...PLAYING HOB W/THE
RED FLAG WARNING THERE. TRENDS SHOW CLOUD COVER PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL INHIBIT MIXING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT
BEST...AND ITS HARD TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT
ANY ONE LOCATION FOR 3 HOURS. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE RFW.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER LOOKS A LITTLE THINNER THURSDAY...AND CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPES IN
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WE/LL ISSUE A WATCH.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
683
FXUS64 KMAF 152312
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF ALL TAF SITES.
HENNIG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE CUT OFF LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE A LITTLE WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BEEN ROUNDING
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SO
FAR NOTHING OF INTEREST HAS DEVELOPED HOWEVER THIS MAY CHANGE AS
WE APPROACH PEAK HEATING HERE IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AND WOULD ONLY BRIEFLY
AFFECT THE CWA BEFORE MOVING EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 90S BY MID AFTERNOON...HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS. WE WILL HEAT UP FURTHER TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 ON BOTH DAYS. LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR AND AROUND 105.
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE
WEEKEND. MOST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH
HOWEVER THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...KEPT PREVIOUS MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES. UNFORTUNATELY NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH THIS
FRONT ATTM.
FIRE WEATHER...
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID/HI CLOUD HAS DEVELOPED INTO
THE GUADALUPES/VAN HORN AND THE HWY 54 CORRIDOR...PLAYING HOB W/THE
RED FLAG WARNING THERE. TRENDS SHOW CLOUD COVER PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL INHIBIT MIXING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT
BEST...AND ITS HARD TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT
ANY ONE LOCATION FOR 3 HOURS. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE RFW.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER LOOKS A LITTLE THINNER THURSDAY...AND CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPES IN
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WE/LL ISSUE A WATCH.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
10
090
FXUS64 KMAF 151934
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE CUT OFF LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE A LITTLE WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BEEN ROUNDING
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SO
FAR NOTHING OF INTEREST HAS DEVELOPED HOWEVER THIS MAY CHANGE AS
WE APPROACH PEAK HEATING HERE IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AND WOULD ONLY BRIEFLY
AFFECT THE CWA BEFORE MOVING EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 90S BY MID AFTERNOON...HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS. WE WILL HEAT UP FURTHER TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 ON BOTH DAYS. LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR AND AROUND 105.
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE
WEEKEND. MOST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH
HOWEVER THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...KEPT PREVIOUS MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES. UNFORTUNATELY NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH THIS
FRONT ATTM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID/HI CLOUD HAS DEVELOPED INTO
THE GUADALUPES/VAN HORN AND THE HWY 54 CORRIDOR...PLAYING HOB W/THE
RED FLAG WARNING THERE. TRENDS SHOW CLOUD COVER PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL INHIBIT MIXING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT
BEST...AND ITS HARD TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT
ANY ONE LOCATION FOR 3 HOURS. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE RFW.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER LOOKS A LITTLE THINNER THURSDAY...AND CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPES IN
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WE/LL ISSUE A WATCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 65 99 64 99 / 10 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 64 99 64 101 / 20 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 100 61 100 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 68 103 70 102 / 20 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 100 68 101 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 65 91 65 93 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 61 97 60 96 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 47 90 51 91 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 65 100 65 100 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 66 99 67 100 / 10 0 0 0
WINK TX 64 102 65 102 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
44/27
423
FXUS64 KMAF 151612
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1112 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD CU FIELD TODAY...W/BASES
7-11 KFT AGL. MODELS DEVELOP AFTERNOON CONVECTION INVOF KMAF...BUT
WE/LL NOT INCLUDE THIS ATTM. WINDS VEER TO W-NW OVERNIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FAIRLY STORMY EVENING LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AND HEAT UP AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME AREAS
BETWEEN FT STOCKTON AND BIG LAKE PICKED UP OVER 3 INCHES OF MUCH
NEEDED RAIN. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90`S TO NEAR 100
IN A FEW SPOTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGHEST LEVELS
WE`VE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 30C SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...MINUS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND A STRONG CAP
WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH
STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE U.S. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
GENERATE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES EAST OF THE DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SOMETIME TUESDAY.
FIRE WX...
A DRYLINE PUSHING EAST WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH BELOW 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 20FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW 20 MPH EXCEPT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE DELAWARE MOUNTAINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY. THESE
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
44
157
FXUS64 KMAF 151127
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT CNM... PEQ... AND FST THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD BRIEFLY SEE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS AT MAF
BEFORE 14Z... OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FAIRLY STORMY EVENING LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AND HEAT UP AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME AREAS
BETWEEN FT STOCKTON AND BIG LAKE PICKED UP OVER 3 INCHES OF MUCH
NEEDED RAIN. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90`S TO NEAR 100
IN A FEW SPOTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGHEST LEVELS
WE`VE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 30C SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...MINUS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND A STRONG CAP
WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH
STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE U.S. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
GENERATE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES EAST OF THE DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SOMETIME TUESDAY.
FIRE WX...
A DRYLINE PUSHING EAST WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH BELOW 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 20FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW 20 MPH EXCEPT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE DELAWARE MOUNTAINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY. THESE
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
486
FXUS64 KMAF 150937
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
437 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FAIRLY STORMY EVENING LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT
AND HEAT UP AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME AREAS
BETWEEN FT STOCKTON AND BIG LAKE PICKED UP OVER 3 INCHES OF MUCH
NEEDED RAIN. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90`S TO NEAR 100
IN A FEW SPOTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGHEST LEVELS
WE`VE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 30C SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...MINUS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND A STRONG CAP
WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH
STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE U.S. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
GENERATE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES EAST OF THE DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SOMETIME TUESDAY.
FIRE WX...
A DRYLINE PUSHING EAST WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH BELOW 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 20FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW 20 MPH EXCEPT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE DELAWARE MOUNTAINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY. THESE
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 94 65 99 64 / 10 10 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 94 64 99 64 / 20 20 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 95 61 100 61 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 92 66 103 69 / 20 20 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 95 66 100 68 / 10 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 87 65 91 65 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS NM 92 61 97 60 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA TX 85 47 90 51 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 96 66 100 65 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 95 67 99 67 / 10 10 0 0
WINK TX 97 64 102 65 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
72/29
069
FXUS64 KMAF 150534
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS LEAVING THE AREA AND NOT EXPECTING
ANY MORE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BY. COULD BE SOME
LOW CLOUDS NEAR/EAST OF MAF AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER THE
PAST HOUR AS THE UPPER LOW...THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
FOR A COUPLE DAYS...FINALLY MAKES ITS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 HOWEVER THE CURRENT RADAR TREND SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING
AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO NEAR 100 AT MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DID
NOT GO AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO
WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH EACH AFTERNOON BUT THINK IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
NORTH HOWEVER DID NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN BUT THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED ADJUSTING EITHER WAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS OFF TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...IT WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY COOL
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL BE SEEING AT THE
END OF THIS WORK WEEK.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
933
FXUS64 KMAF 142322
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR MAF...INK...PEQ AND FST. VARIABLE AND GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL AS A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
STRONGER WINDS RETURNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER THE
PAST HOUR AS THE UPPER LOW...THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
FOR A COUPLE DAYS...FINALLY MAKES ITS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 HOWEVER THE CURRENT RADAR TREND SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING
AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO NEAR 100 AT MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DID
NOT GO AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO
WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH EACH AFTERNOON BUT THINK IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
NORTH HOWEVER DID NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN BUT THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED ADJUSTING EITHER WAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS OFF TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...IT WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY COOL
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL BE SEEING AT THE
END OF THIS WORK WEEK.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
298
FXUS64 KMAF 141930
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER THE
PAST HOUR AS THE UPPER LOW...THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
FOR A COUPLE DAYS...FINALLY MAKES ITS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 HOWEVER THE CURRENT RADAR TREND SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING
AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO NEAR 100 AT MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DID
NOT GO AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO
WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH EACH AFTERNOON BUT THINK IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
NORTH HOWEVER DID NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN BUT THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED ADJUSTING EITHER WAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS OFF TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...IT WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY COOL
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL BE SEEING AT THE
END OF THIS WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 93 65 100 / 20 10 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 64 92 66 100 / 20 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 60 95 63 100 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 66 94 69 102 / 30 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 65 96 67 100 / 30 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 89 64 91 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 93 62 97 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA TX 49 87 50 89 / 20 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 94 66 100 / 20 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 65 94 67 100 / 20 10 0 0
WINK TX 63 100 66 104 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70/27
761
FXUS64 KMAF 141753
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 14/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED TO IMPACT KCNM, KFST, AND KPEQ THROUGH AT
LEAST 15/23Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND RADAR DATA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPO GROUPS AT KCNM AND KPEQ. MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA AND BLDU
ARE EXPECTED, WITH ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS.
SHORT TERM DATA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS MORE THAN 35 KNOTS...WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. AT KHOB, KMAF, AND KINK,
THERE`S ABOUT A 1 IN 4 CHANCE OF GETTING SOME TSRA BETWEEN 19Z
AND 00Z. NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH
NEVERTHELESS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT KHOB
AND KMAF AROUND 15Z OR SO WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING LOW LEVEL JET MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS, AND
HERE WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE PECOS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO VERY
SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER MEXICO WILL WOBBLE EAST TODAY BRINGING
WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY FRIDAY PASSING OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL DISPLACE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM THE LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT LAST WEEK. WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BEFORE
90S RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE TRYING TO GO 100 ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN... HAVE
KEPT IT BELOW BUT IT MAY TRY TO PRESS THE CENTURY MARK. WILL SEE
100+ TEMPS ALONG THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS MID WEEK.
CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW STORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO THE
AREA... WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
DRY SO EXPECT MUCH OF WHAT FALLS EVAPORATES BEFORE IT REACHES THE
GROUND. HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DID HAVE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MTNS MONDAY... BUT EXPECT MORE
COVERAGE TODAY BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 1-20. MODEL QPF DEVELOPS STORMS
OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AND TRACKS IT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN... LOOKS REASONABLE SO HAVE RAISED POPS
TODAY ACROSS THE DAVIS MTNS... MARFA PLATEAU... BIG BEND... AND
PECOS COUNTY. SWODY2 INDICATES COULD SEE SOME STORMS EAST WEDNESDAY
AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS OVER EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES BUT
MOST WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION. THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE WITH
NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
INCREASING POPS AND DECENT QPF... WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT EAST.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70
279
FXUS64 KMAF 141102
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE PECOS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS DUE TO VERY
SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER MEXICO WILL WOBBLE EAST TODAY BRINGING
WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY FRIDAY PASSING OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL DISPLACE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM THE LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT LAST WEEK. WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BEFORE
90S RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE TRYING TO GO 100 ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN... HAVE
KEPT IT BELOW BUT IT MAY TRY TO PRESS THE CENTURY MARK. WILL SEE
100+ TEMPS ALONG THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS MID WEEK.
CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW STORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO THE
AREA... WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
DRY SO EXPECT MUCH OF WHAT FALLS EVAPORATES BEFORE IT REACHES THE
GROUND. HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DID HAVE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MTNS MONDAY... BUT EXPECT MORE
COVERAGE TODAY BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 1-20. MODEL QPF DEVELOPS STORMS
OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AND TRACKS IT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN... LOOKS REASONABLE SO HAVE RAISED POPS
TODAY ACROSS THE DAVIS MTNS... MARFA PLATEAU... BIG BEND... AND
PECOS COUNTY. SWODY2 INDICATES COULD SEE SOME STORMS EAST WEDNESDAY
AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS OVER EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES BUT
MOST WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION. THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE WITH
NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
INCREASING POPS AND DECENT QPF... WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT EAST.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
120
FXUS64 KMAF 140759
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
259 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CUT OFF LOW OVER MEXICO WILL WOBBLE EAST TODAY BRINGING
WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY FRIDAY PASSING OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL DISPLACE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECOVER FROM THE LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT LAST WEEK. WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BEFORE
90S RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE TRYING TO GO 100 ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN... HAVE
KEPT IT BELOW BUT IT MAY TRY TO PRESS THE CENTURY MARK. WILL SEE
100+ TEMPS ALONG THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS MID WEEK.
CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW STORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO THE
AREA... WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
DRY SO EXPECT MUCH OF WHAT FALLS EVAPORATES BEFORE IT REACHES THE
GROUND. HAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DID HAVE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS MTNS MONDAY... BUT EXPECT MORE
COVERAGE TODAY BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 1-20. MODEL QPF DEVELOPS STORMS
OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AND TRACKS IT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN... LOOKS REASONABLE SO HAVE RAISED POPS
TODAY ACROSS THE DAVIS MTNS... MARFA PLATEAU... BIG BEND... AND
PECOS COUNTY. SWODY2 INDICATES COULD SEE SOME STORMS EAST WEDNESDAY
AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS OVER EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES BUT
MOST WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION. THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE WITH
NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
INCREASING POPS AND DECENT QPF... WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 85 63 93 65 / 10 10 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 85 64 93 66 / 20 20 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 88 60 95 63 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 85 66 94 69 / 30 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 86 63 96 67 / 30 20 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 79 60 84 62 / 20 10 0 0
HOBBS NM 85 60 93 63 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA TX 79 49 87 52 / 30 20 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 86 64 94 65 / 20 20 10 0
ODESSA TX 86 65 94 65 / 20 20 0 0
WINK TX 90 63 98 64 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/72
313
FXUS64 KMAF 140510
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE OF TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S AREAWIDE. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAIN REGIONS EARLY THIS EVENING.
REGARDLESS...DO NOT THINK CHANCES ARE PROMISING. TUESDAY...THE
UPPER LOW WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. GREATEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE
DAVIS MOUNTAIN AND BIG BEND REGIONS HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE EVENING AND COME TO
AN END OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO WARM CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING MID WEEK AS WEAK
UPPER RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO THE UPPER 90S AND NEAR 100 FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EAST THROUGH THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING
ANY DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE REGION. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
871
FXUS64 KMAF 132330
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH HIGH BASED CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET.
SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT PICK UP AGAIN
TOMORROW AND BECOME GUSTY AS LEESIDE TROUGH DEEPENS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S AREAWIDE. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAIN REGIONS EARLY THIS EVENING.
REGARDLESS...DO NOT THINK CHANCES ARE PROMISING. TUESDAY...THE
UPPER LOW WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. GREATEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE
DAVIS MOUNTAIN AND BIG BEND REGIONS HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE EVENING AND COME TO
AN END OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO WARM CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING MID WEEK AS WEAK
UPPER RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO THE UPPER 90S AND NEAR 100 FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EAST THROUGH THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING
ANY DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE REGION. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
134
FXUS64 KMAF 131935
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
235 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S AREAWIDE. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAIN REGIONS EARLY THIS EVENING.
REGARDLESS...DO NOT THINK CHANCES ARE PROMISING. TUESDAY...THE
UPPER LOW WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. GREATEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE
DAVIS MOUNTAIN AND BIG BEND REGIONS HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE EVENING AND COME TO
AN END OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO WARM CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING MID WEEK AS WEAK
UPPER RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO THE UPPER 90S AND NEAR 100 FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EAST THROUGH THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING
ANY DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE REGION. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 58 88 63 94 / 0 10 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 58 86 64 94 / 0 20 20 10
CARLSBAD NM 56 89 60 96 / 0 10 10 0
DRYDEN TX 63 86 66 96 / 0 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 60 89 63 95 / 0 20 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 55 80 60 85 / 0 20 10 0
HOBBS NM 54 87 59 93 / 0 10 10 0
MARFA TX 48 79 49 86 / 10 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 87 64 95 / 0 20 20 10
ODESSA TX 62 87 65 95 / 0 20 20 0
WINK TX 59 90 64 97 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70/27
863
FXUS64 KMAF 131740
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 13/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SIG WX NIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 14/18Z. WE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
BIG BEND WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KPEQ, KMAF, AND KFST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY PICK UP AROUND
MID MORNING TUESDAY AS WE MIX DOWN A DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL JET.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT AREA TERMINALS LOOK MARGINALLY BETTER
JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
12
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARMER TODAY EXCEPT IN THE BIG BEND WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS SPREADING THE
CONVECTION INTO THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN...UNFORTUNATELY
LIMITED MOISTURE MEANS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST.
THURSDAY BEGINS A PERIOD OF ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A DRY
AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30C WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO MOVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREAWIDE WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE TRANS PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS. CANNOT RULE OUT
HIGHS EXCEEDING 100 IN THE PERMIAN BASIN THOUGH WILL NOT BE SO
AGGRESSIVE DUE TO ONLY MODEST WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70
109
FXUS64 KMAF 131055
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARMER TODAY EXCEPT IN THE BIG BEND WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS SPREADING THE
CONVECTION INTO THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN...UNFORTUNATELY
LIMITED MOISTURE MEANS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST.
THURSDAY BEGINS A PERIOD OF ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A DRY
AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30C WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO MOVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREAWIDE WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE TRANS PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS. CANNOT RULE OUT
HIGHS EXCEEDING 100 IN THE PERMIAN BASIN THOUGH WILL NOT BE SO
AGGRESSIVE DUE TO ONLY MODEST WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 84 58 87 61 / 0 0 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 86 59 86 64 / 0 0 10 20
CARLSBAD NM 85 56 90 62 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN TX 83 61 86 63 / 10 0 30 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 82 60 88 64 / 0 0 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 75 52 78 57 / 0 0 20 10
HOBBS NM 83 56 86 58 / 0 0 10 10
MARFA TX 74 51 81 53 / 10 10 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 84 59 87 63 / 0 0 20 20
ODESSA TX 84 60 87 63 / 0 0 20 20
WINK TX 85 60 90 62 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/12
475
FXUS64 KMAF 130837
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
337 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARMER TODAY EXCEPT IN THE BIG BEND WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS SPREADING THE
CONVECTION INTO THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN...UNFORTUNATELY
LIMITED MOISTURE MEANS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST.
THURSDAY BEGINS A PERIOD OF ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A DRY
AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30C WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO MOVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREAWIDE WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE TRANS PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS. CANNOT RULE OUT
HIGHS EXCEEDING 100 IN THE PERMIAN BASIN THOUGH WILL NOT BE SO
AGGRESSIVE DUE TO ONLY MODEST WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 84 58 87 61 / 0 0 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 86 59 86 64 / 0 0 10 20
CARLSBAD NM 85 56 90 62 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN TX 83 61 86 63 / 10 0 30 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 82 60 88 64 / 0 0 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 75 52 78 57 / 0 0 20 10
HOBBS NM 83 56 86 58 / 0 0 10 10
MARFA TX 74 51 81 53 / 10 10 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 84 59 87 63 / 0 0 20 20
ODESSA TX 84 60 87 63 / 0 0 20 20
WINK TX 85 60 90 62 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/10
757
FXUS64 KMAF 130453
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY BY MID MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
12
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THE SPRING
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. A PLEASANT...
BELOW NORMAL START TO THE WORK WEEK WILL END WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S TO NEAR 100 IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE BIG CONTROLLER OF THE
ROLLER COASTER THIS SEASON HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN.
TRANSLATING THIS TO THE SHORT TERM... A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST... HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MOVEMENT
OF A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY. THIS
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW/S MOVEMENT WILL
DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND MIDWEEK... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CREATE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 53 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 20
BIG SPRING TX 54 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 20
CARLSBAD NM 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 58 83 61 88 / 0 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 54 83 60 87 / 0 10 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 48 74 53 75 / 0 0 10 20
HOBBS NM 53 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 46 72 51 78 / 0 20 20 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 54 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 20
ODESSA TX 55 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 20
WINK TX 55 85 60 88 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
946
FXUS64 KMAF 130001
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AND VEER AROUND MORE TO THE S/SW TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THE SPRING
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. A PLEASANT...
BELOW NORMAL START TO THE WORK WEEK WILL END WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S TO NEAR 100 IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE BIG CONTROLLER OF THE
ROLLER COASTER THIS SEASON HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN.
TRANSLATING THIS TO THE SHORT TERM... A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST... HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MOVEMENT
OF A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY. THIS
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW/S MOVEMENT WILL
DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND MIDWEEK... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CREATE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
535
FXUS64 KMAF 121957
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THE SPRING
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. A PLEASANT...
BELOW NORMAL START TO THE WORK WEEK WILL END WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S TO NEAR 100 IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE BIG CONTROLLER OF THE
ROLLER COASTER THIS SEASON HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN.
TRANSLATING THIS TO THE SHORT TERM... A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST... HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MOVEMENT
OF A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY. THIS
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW/S MOVEMENT WILL
DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND MIDWEEK... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CREATE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 53 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 20
BIG SPRING TX 54 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 20
CARLSBAD NM 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN TX 58 83 61 88 / 0 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 54 83 60 87 / 0 10 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 48 74 53 75 / 0 0 10 20
HOBBS NM 53 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 46 72 51 78 / 0 20 20 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 54 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 20
ODESSA TX 55 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 20
WINK TX 55 85 60 88 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
