Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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705
FXUS64 KMAF 122329
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
529 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Post frontal conditions with gusty NE wind that should start to
decrease through the evening. Expect the development of rain and low
clouds over most of the area tonight with MVFR cigs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Northeast winds continue to blow at an accelerated clip across most
of the forecast area this afternoon, although speeds are waning
somewhat over the southeastern New Mexico plains, Upper Trans Pecos,
Permian Basin and western Low Rolling plains.  Although a few
locations will stubbornly linger near advisory criteria of 30 mph
sustained and a few gusts near 45 mph through this afternoon and
perhaps early evening, will cancel the rest of the Wind Advisory
over these areas and handle any outliers with social media.  Farther
west and southwest, expect northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph, and
gusts to 50 mph, to persist through the evening, due in part to
funneling/enhancement over the variable terrain.  There may be
periodic lulls in these areas, but overall think the winds will stay
up through the evening and warrant the advisory running until 13/06Z
for the Guadalupe Mountains of southeastern New Mexico, Van Horn
area, Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau and Presidio Valley until
13/06Z.

Attention then will focus on an approaching upper low and
precipitation types and chances.  The latest models are still taking
a more northerly track, that is, over southeastern New Mexico Monday
night.  Considering this track, the latest models are also coming in
with warmer surface temperatures over the forecast area tonight and
Monday morning, both in the raw data and MOS guidance, and are
slower changing to wintry precipitation.  In addition, temperature
profiles will be warm enough for all rain over west Texas, and much
of southeastern New Mexico too.  The exceptions are the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, where there is a several hour period where
freezing rain, if not snow and sleet, could fall between 13/09Z and
13/18Z.  High resolution models are particularly indicating surface
temperatures dropping to the upper 20s in the Guadalupes and near 30
in the Davis Mountains late tonight and staying below freezing at
both through the morning.  Despite warm ground temperatures likely
mitigating ice or snow accumulations initially, will go ahead and
issue a Winter Weather Advisory for both from 13/09Z until 13/18Z,
but for elevations above 6000 feet in the Davis Mountains.
Surface temperatures will be more marginal over the southeast New
Mexico plains, but temperature profiles support a mix of sleet
and snow there, if not freezing rain over northern portions of
Eddy, and central and northern Lea counties.  Will go ahead and
include both in the Winter Weather Advisory too. Think 1-3 inches
of snow could accumulate in the Guadalupes, and 1-2 inches of
sleet and snow over the Davis Mountains, and northern portions of
Eddy and Lea counties. Steep lapse rates around 7 C/km and modest
instability around h75 will exist over southwest Texas tonight, so
will continue to mention isolated thunder. If any thunderstorms
develop near or over the mountains, it could enhance precipitation
rates. Will alert subsequent shifts and have them monitor.

There is still a good chance of rain over most of the forecast area
Monday and Monday night as the upper low nears, then moves over the
region.  Again, the latest raw data and MOS guidance have warmed low
and high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, which will likely put
a crimp in precipitation changing to the freezing or frozen variety.
The locations which stand the best chance of seeing precipitation
change to sleet or snow Monday night are the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeastern New Mexico plains.  Northernmost portions of the
Permian Basin could also see precipitation change to sleet or snow
late Monday night and Tuesday morning.  At this time, it appears
snowfall amounts would be 1-2 inches at best.  This may especially
be true for portions of southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern
Permian Basin Monday night since there is some indications isolated
thunderstorms could support a burst of heavier precipitation, cool
the atmospheric column and change precipitation more rapidly to
snow.  Will keep a mix of precipitation in all of these areas, but
due to the questionable surface temperatures, will not issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for these time frames, yet.  Moderate to
locally heavy rainfall could occur over easternmost portions of the
forecast area Monday night, and will make a mention of this in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook for now since it appears the main axis of
heavier rainfall will fall just east of our County Warning Area.

The forecast will be dry from Tuesday night through the rest of the
week as the ua trough moves east of the region.  Another upper
trough is progged to approach Saturday, and move overhead next
Saturday night/Sunday.  Some models are indicating thunderstorms
developing over the area with this trough, but will wait and see how
much consistency models can muster the next couple of days, before
increasing rain chances much.  Temperatures will warm to near normal
Wednesday, then above normal through next weekend Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     39  44  36  41 /  30  80  90  40
Carlsbad                       36  36  34  44 /  90  80  50  20
Dryden                         51  53  43  56 /  30  70  70  10
Fort Stockton                  38  39  36  48 /  50  70  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 28  35  31  41 /  90  60  40  20
Hobbs                          33  35  32  39 /  60  90  70  30
Marfa                          38  47  34  49 /  40  60  50  10
Midland Intl Airport           38  41  34  42 /  40  80  70  30
Odessa                         35  39  34  42 /  40  80  70  30
Wink                           41  41  35  46 /  50  80  60  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM MST Monday for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to noon CST /11
     AM MST/ Monday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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