Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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746
FXUS64 KMAF 160857
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
357 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
There does not appear to be too much change from last nights model
runs with subtropical ridge centered across AZ and minor shrtwv
trof within NW-N flow aloft. Convection has been moving across the
area early this morning with modest LLJ impinging on outflow
boundary, but it does look to be slowly waning and exiting to the
east. Based on deterministic model QPFs including SREF QPF probabilities
there will be good opportunity for at least scattered PoPs from
the Davis Mtns ene thru the PB during max heating. This is pretty
well handled in current fcst and have only trend up PoPs slightly
and moreso in the Davis Mtns. NAM12 continues to reflect a cold pool
in temp field across the PB after 21Z so we`ll have to watch for
higher PoPs. Mid and upper 20C 85h temps continue to support above
normal temps but again convection could alter this to be a little
cooler. 5h heights fall slightly Sunday and 85h temps are a little
cooler too while axis of higher precip will shift swd into the Lower
Trans Pecos. Only minor changes are needed to account for this.
Drying trend will continue into Monday/Tuesday however 5h/7h
heights are seasonally low suggesting near to just below seasonal
temperatures. As an upper low moves into/near SoCal Wednesday the
monsoonal moist axis will shift ewd making it into the far wrn
CWFA, thus warranting an increase in PoPs there and probably
moreso Thur. 7h temps in the extended forecast are a little above
normal per NAEFS, but high temperatures will be somewhat nice
compared to what they could be this time of yr. There are no
anomalies seen Fri/Sat in the temperature/height/mstr fields in
the GEFS/NAEFS ensemble data.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  71  93  70  /  30  30  20  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75  95  74  /  20  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                98  71  97  70  /  40  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 105  80 100  77  /  20  30  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  73  93  72  /  40  40  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  68  87  65  /  40  40  20  20
HOBBS NM                   94  68  92  67  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   91  61  86  61  /  40  40  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  73  93  73  /  30  30  20  20
ODESSA TX                  97  74  93  73  /  40  40  20  20
WINK TX                   100  74  96  73  /  40  40  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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