Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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432
FXUS64 KMAF 231631
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1131 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals this afternoon and
tonight.  Showers are expected to develop and affect most sites this
afternoon/evening.  There could be some reduction in visibility, but
will hold off addressing this until it becomes more clear where the
heavier showers will occur.  Also, TSRA could affect KCNM this
afternoon, but will likely add TSRA after storms develop over the
higher terrain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

WV imagery shows the upper ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast
states, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow
aloft.  This pattern will more or less remain into the extended. To
the north, an upper low is ejecting thru Saskatchewan, and digging a
trough thru the SW CONUS.  This will gin up leeside troughing on the
Front Range, w/the sfc trough forecast to drift south into TX/OK
over the next couple of days.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge moved north
into the FA yesterday, and is forecast to orient SW-NE and
strengthen over the next few days roughly in line w/the
aforementioned sfc trough.  Thus, a good chance of convection will
remain, especially in the short term.  Forecast soundings continue
to hint at mainly a heavy rain threat, w/ensembles indicating PWATs
over 1.5 std devs abv normal, and forecast to remain 1" or more for
the next few days.  Mid-lvl LRs and bulk shear look too weak to
mention any svr activity attm, but we`ll mention that a few
cells could become strong in the HWO.

For temps, w/the ridge off to the east, and increased moisture, H85
temps don`t move much over the next week, keeping things right
around normal as far as highs go, and abv-normal lows due to higher
dewpoints.  This is in pretty good agreement w/MOS, and we see
no reason to deviate too much from it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  72  91  71 /  30  40  30  40
Carlsbad                       90  69  86  67 /  40  40  30  20
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  20  10  20  30
Fort Stockton                  90  70  89  68 /  40  30  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 80  64  79  63 /  50  50  40  20
Hobbs                          88  67  84  65 /  40  40  40  40
Marfa                          82  64  80  62 /  50  40  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           90  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Odessa                         89  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Wink                           91  71  88  69 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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