Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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966
FXUS64 KMAF 271734
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level storm system centered in the eastern Texas Panhandle
will slowly move northeast toward the Red River the next 24 hours.
Wrap around VFR cumulus/stratcumulus clouds should increase from
north to south this afternoon and this evening as a cold front
surges south this evening. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusty this afternoon are expected to shift to the north tonight.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop at KMAF and KHOB by 06z
tonight with a 30 percent chance of showers tonight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

A cold front will move south through all area terminals today with
gusty northerly winds developing behind it.  There will be a
period of MVFR ceilings at KCNM and KMAF this morning, and also MVFR
visibility, and IFR ceilings at KHOB, between 27/12Z and 27/16Z.
VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon, but MVFR ceilings
appear likely to spread back over most terminals this evening and
overnight.  A few thunderstorms may develop over the area this
afternoon, particularly KHOB, but probability is too low to include
in the forecast at this time.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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