Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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892
FXUS64 KMAF 031938
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies. Expect
afternoon temperatures to be around 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. An upper trough moving south
through the TX Panhandle this afternoon has generated some showers
and thunderstorms just north of the area. This activity may
affect portions of the northern Permian Basin and potentially
southeast NM through late afternoon so pulled mention of isolated
thunderstorms south across these areas. Tonight, expect low
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Upper ridging will build east over the region Wednesday through the
end of the week while a closed upper low enters the CA coast,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region by the
weekend. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds expected
tomorrow then southerly winds return as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As a result, the warming trend will continue
through Friday with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s by
Friday afternoon. Areas along the Rio Grande Valley may approach the
century mark.

Low level moisture will be on the increase Thursday and more so
Friday as modest southeast winds increase. A weak dryline will form
on Friday and although thunderstorm parameters will not be ideal, we
may get enough heating during the afternoon for some isolated
convection near the dryline. Better chances for severe thunderstorms
will be Saturday afternoon near a sharpening dryline and then in the
evening as the dryline retreats westward. West winds will increase
across the region Sunday morning, shunting moisture and rain chances
east for the day. The dryline looks to retreat once again Sunday
evening, returning thunderstorm chances to eastern zones. The upper
low will slowly lift northeast Monday, ending rain chances through
mid week. Otherwise, near or slightly above normal temperatures
expected this weekend through the beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  82  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  83  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  76  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  84  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  86  52  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

49/27
568
FXUS64 KMAF 031720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. A weak wind
shift to the NW is expected at HOB/MAF around 00Z/01Z,
respectively and then around the E by 12Z. A isolated storm will
be possible E of HOB and N of MAF late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Light E/SE winds
will shift to the N/NE late in the forecast period, but should
remain under 12KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the
Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight.  An
upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the
area the rest of the work week.  The next upper low will move ashore
the CA coast Thursday and roll across the SW US.  By Saturday this
low will be pushing into the area with SW flow aloft before lifting
northeastward Sunday and Monday.

Temps will continue to recover today with one last day in the 70s
for most of the region before 80s become widespread on Wednesday. By
Friday expect to see 90s across the Pecos river valley and over the
Big Bend.

Models do develop some precip today north of the area along a shear
axis associated with the upper trough.  Some light qpf tries to
make it down into the CWA this afternoon so went ahead and added
mention of isolated thunder north.  Currently no clouds across the
area this morning with a S/SE wind.  A weak boundary/wind shift
should drift down into the area today but not expect much from it.
Low level moisture remains fairly dry with dewpoints in the 30s
and 40s... will need to see this increase before can have much
chance of rain. By this weekend rain chances will increase with
approach of upper low but need to increase moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  82  54  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  82  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  84  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  76  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  80  49  86 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  77  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  83  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  83  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           53  86  55  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
049
FXUS64 KMAF 031133
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Light E/SE winds
will shift to the N/NE late in the forecast period, but should
remain under 12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the
Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight.  An
upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the
area the rest of the work week.  The next upper low will move ashore
the CA coast Thursday and roll across the SW US.  By Saturday this
low will be pushing into the area with SW flow aloft before lifting
northeastward Sunday and Monday.

Temps will continue to recover today with one last day in the 70s
for most of the region before 80s become widespread on Wednesday. By
Friday expect to see 90s across the Pecos river valley and over the
Big Bend.

Models do develop some precip today north of the area along a shear
axis associated with the upper trough.  Some light qpf tries to
make it down into the CWA this afternoon so went ahead and added
mention of isolated thunder north.  Currently no clouds across the
area this morning with a S/SE wind.  A weak boundary/wind shift
should drift down into the area today but not expect much from it.
Low level moisture remains fairly dry with dewpts in the 30s and
40s... will need to see this increase before can have much chance of
rain.  By this weekend rain chances will increase with approach of
upper low but need to increase moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  52  82  54 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         79  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  51  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  46  80  49 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           78  52  83  55 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         79  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
077
FXUS64 KMAF 030827
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the
Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight.  An
upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the
area the rest of the work week.  The next upper low will move ashore
the CA coast Thursday and roll across the SW US.  By Saturday this
low will be pushing into the area with SW flow aloft before lifting
northeastward Sunday and Monday.

Temps will continue to recover today with one last day in the 70s
for most of the region before 80s become widespread on Wednesday. By
Friday expect to see 90s across the Pecos river valley and over the
Big Bend.

Models do develop some precip today north of the area along a shear
axis associated with the upper trough.  Some light qpf tries to
make it down into the CWA this afternoon so went ahead and added
mention of isolated thunder north.  Currently no clouds across the
area this morning with a S/SE wind.  A weak boundary/wind shift
should drift down into the area today but not expect much from it.
Low level moisture remains fairly dry with dewpts in the 30s and
40s... will need to see this increase before can have much chance of
rain.  By this weekend rain chances will increase with approach of
upper low but need to increase moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  52  82  54 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         79  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  51  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  46  80  49 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           78  52  83  55 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         79  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
808
FXUS64 KMAF 030449
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1149 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light E/SE winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

Tranquil wx is expected overnight as light a se wind returns with
a surface high just off to the e by 12Z Tue. Tue PM a shrtwv trof
will drop swd thru the Panhandle/wrn OK with some precip along the
leading edge of trough axis. Precip is mostly expected to
dissipate before entering nrn CWFA, but have included low order
PoPs across the n-ne. A bit of a secondary surge of surface high
pressure will move in thru Wed AM and light winds will continue.
Temps will slowly moderate back into the 80s by Wed. Thickness
will continue to rise into Thur PM as an amplified mid level ridge
moves into the area aiding the return of above normal temps. Also
gusty se winds will return to most areas Thur with development of
surface trof to the w. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move
into SOCAL by Fri AM. Said se surface flow will attempt to bring
low level moisture into the CWFA Fri PM, but will probably not get
established until after peak heating. 7h-5h LR/s will be very
steep and we would not be surprised to see a few high based TSRA
develop in far SW reaches of CWFA Fri PM. The better chance for
storms appears to be Sat when moisture is better along with
falling heights (cooling mid levels). Storms are possible Sunday
too per ECMWF. Fri/Sat could be hot across parts of the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps U20C-30C.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  76  51  81 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  79  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  77  47  79 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          37  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  79  53  83 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
879
FXUS64 KMAF 022259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

Tranquil wx is expected overnight as light a se wind returns with
a surface high just off to the e by 12Z Tue. Tue PM a shrtwv trof
will drop swd thru the Panhandle/wrn OK with some precip along the
leading edge of trough axis. Precip is mostly expected to
dissipate before entering nrn CWFA, but have included low order
PoPs across the n-ne. A bit of a secondary surge of surface high
pressure will move in thru Wed AM and light winds will continue.
Temps will slowly moderate back into the 80s by Wed. Thickness
will continue to rise into Thur PM as an amplified mid level ridge
moves into the area aiding the return of above normal temps. Also
gusty se winds will return to most areas Thur with development of
surface trof to the w. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move
into SOCAL by Fri AM. Said se surface flow will attempt to bring
low level moisture into the CWFA Fri PM, but will probably not get
established until after peak heating. 7h-5h LR/s will be very
steep and we would not be surprised to see a few high based TSRA
develop in far SW reaches of CWFA Fri PM. The better chance for
storms appears to be Sat when moisture is better along with
falling heights (cooling mid levels). Storms are possible Sunday
too per ECMWF. Fri/Sat could be hot across parts of the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps U20C-30C.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  76  51  81 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  79  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  77  47  79 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          37  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  79  53  83 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
596
FXUS64 KMAF 021859
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tranquil wx is expected overnight as light a se wind returns with
a surface high just off to the e by 12Z Tue. Tue PM a shrtwv trof
will drop swd thru the Panhandle/wrn OK with some precip along the
leading edge of trough axis. Precip is mostly expected to
dissipate before entering nrn CWFA, but have included low order
PoPs across the n-ne. A bit of a secondary surge of surface high
pressure will move in thru Wed AM and light winds will continue.
Temps will slowly moderate back into the 80s by Wed. Thickness
will continue to rise into Thur PM as an amplified mid level ridge
moves into the area aiding the return of above normal temps. Also
gusty se winds will return to most areas Thur with development of
surface trof to the w. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move
into SOCAL by Fri AM. Said se surface flow will attempt to bring
low level moisture into the CWFA Fri PM, but will probably not get
established until after peak heating. 7h-5h LR/s will be very
steep and we would not be surprised to see a few high based TSRA
develop in far SW reaches of CWFA Fri PM. The better chance for
storms appears to be Sat when moisture is better along with
falling heights (cooling mid levels). Storms are possible Sunday
too per ECMWF. Fri/Sat could be hot across parts of the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps U20C-30C.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  76  51  81 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  79  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  77  47  79 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          37  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  79  53  83 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
214
FXUS64 KMAF 021713
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Low cloud deck will continue to quickly
erode early this afternoon with clear skies expected shortly.
Northerly winds will veer to the southeast through the day and
remain fairly light through the TAF cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southeastern Permian Basin. Lift from the
right rear quadrant of a departing jet streak is combining with
low level isentropic lift to cause this convection which will
diminish after 12Z as the jet max moves off to the east. Skies
will gradually clear this afternoon but thanks to a continued
light northerly flow high temps today will still be well below
normal.

An upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S. by
Wednesday causing temps to rise back to near or slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week. An upper low will move
onto the west coast and approach the CWA by the weekend backing
upper flow and giving a return of rain chances. The latest model
runs are slightly stronger and slower than the runs from 24 hours
ago which would help our chances for seeing rain this weekend. For
now though will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast until better
model consistency is seen with regards to strength and track of
the low.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  45  75  50 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  53  78  57 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  50  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  44  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          65  39  75  42 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  78  54 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         70  50  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  48  82  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
310
FXUS64 KMAF 021113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. A weakening upper level
storm system across the Rockies and Plains will generate considerable
clouds this morning in the 4k to 8k layer. Decreasing clouds are
expected this afternoon with skies clearing by mid to late afternoon
and continuing tonight. Winds will generally be northerly at 10
to 15 mph this morning and then become easterly at 5 to 10 mph
this afternoon and this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southeastern Permian Basin. Lift from the
right rear quadrant of a departing jet streak is combining with
low level isentropic lift to cause this convection which will
diminish after 12Z as the jet max moves off to the east. Skies
will gradually clear this afternoon but thanks to a continued
light northerly flow high temps today will still be well below
normal.

An upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S. by
Wednesday causing temps to rise back to near or slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week. An upper low will move
onto the west coast and approach the CWA by the weekend backing
upper flow and giving a return of rain chances. The latest model
runs are slightly stronger and slower than the runs from 24 hours
ago which would help our chances for seeing rain this weekend. For
now though will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast until better
model consistency is seen with regards to strength and track of
the low.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  45  75  50 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  53  78  57 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  50  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  44  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          65  39  75  42 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  78  54 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         70  50  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  48  82  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10
561
FXUS64 KMAF 020816
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southeastern Permian Basin. Lift from the
right rear quadrant of a departing jet streak is combining with
low level isentropic lift to cause this convection which will
diminish after 12Z as the jet max moves off to the east. Skies
will gradually clear this afternoon but thanks to a continued
light northerly flow high temps today will still be well below
normal.

An upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S. by
Wednesday causing temps to rise back to near or slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week. An upper low will move
onto the west coast and approach the CWA by the weekend backing
upper flow and giving a return of rain chances. The latest model
runs are slightly stronger and slower than the runs from 24 hours
ago which would help our chances for seeing rain this weekend. For
now though will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast until better
model consistency is seen with regards to strength and track of
the low.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  45  75  50 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  53  78  57 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  50  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  44  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          65  39  75  42 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  78  54 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         70  50  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  48  82  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10
681
FXUS64 KMAF 020456
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. A weakening upper level
storm system across the Rockies and Plains will generate
considerable clouds through Monday morning in the 4k to 8k layer.
Decreasing clouds are expected Monday afternoon. Winds will
generally be northerly at 10 to 15 mph through Monday morning and
then become easterly at 5 to 10 mph Monday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 538 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

It appears the low cloud deck will persist over all southeast New
Mexico and west texas overnight, but will mainly stay low VFR.  KCNM
and KHOB may see a period of high MVFR ceilings through 02/04Z, but
do not expect these to last.  The cloud deck will dissipate Monday,
likely by 02/15Z, or shortly thereafter.  VFR will prevail after.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near
the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the
E-NE PB. Have made some late adjustment to drop high temps a few
degrees and lower PoPs across the west for the rest of the
afternoon. Isentropic ascent along I295-305 has been persisting,
but will tend to decrease overnight as winds in that layer back to
NE. Higher up on the I305 surface there will a boundary across the
ern Lower Trans Pecos and points ewd which will serve to renew
precip possibilities toward early Mon AM thru 18Z, aided somewhat
by an upper jet passing to the N. After 18Z precip chance will
drop off to nil. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the
40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into
the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande. A mid
level trof is to drop sewd early Wed AM which may serve to build
surface high pressure south at least into the nrn CWFA. Otherwise
thickness will increase Wed PM and a warming trend will follow
through Sat. It does look hot and dry Fri-Sat across the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps of 25-30C. Dryline storms will be
possible east and south, maybe as early as Fri if moisture return
occurs quick enough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  44  66  46 /  30  30  10   0
Carlsbad                       54  43  68  46 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         76  54  70  52 /  40  50  30  10
Fort Stockton                  63  49  68  50 /  30  20  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  38  62  47 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  40  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          63  39  65  39 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  45  69  48 /  30  20  10   0
Odessa                         61  45  69  49 /  30  20  10   0
Wink                           61  47  72  48 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
673
FXUS64 KMAF 012238
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
538 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

It appears the low cloud deck will persist over all southeast New
Mexico and west texas overnight, but will mainly stay low VFR.  KCNM
and KHOB may see a period of high MVFR ceilings through 02/04Z, but
do not expect these to last.  The cloud deck will dissipate Monday,
likely by 02/15Z, or shortly thereafter.  VFR will prevail after.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near
the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the
E-NE PB. Have made some late adjustment to drop high temps a few
degrees and lower PoPs across the west for the rest of the
afternoon. Isentropic ascent along I295-305 has been persisting,
but will tend to decrease overnight as winds in that layer back to
NE. Higher up on the I305 surface there will a boundary across the
ern Lower Trans Pecos and points ewd which will serve to renew
precip possibilities toward early Mon AM thru 18Z, aided somewhat
by an upper jet passing to the N. After 18Z precip chance will
drop off to nil. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the
40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into
the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande. A mid
level trof is to drop sewd early Wed AM which may serve to build
surface high pressure south at least into the nrn CWFA. Otherwise
thickness will increase Wed PM and a warming trend will follow
through Sat. It does look hot and dry Fri-Sat across the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps of 25-30C. Dryline storms will be
possible east and south, maybe as early as Fri if moisture return
occurs quick enough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  66  46  76 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  68  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  70  52  78 /  50  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  49  68  50  78 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  62  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  67  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  65  39  75 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  69  48  78 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                         45  69  49  78 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           47  72  48  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
669
FXUS64 KMAF 011900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near
the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the
E-NE PB. Have made some late adjustment to drop high temps a few
degrees and lower PoPs across the west for the rest of the
afternoon. Isentropic ascent along I295-305 has been persisting,
but will tend to decrease overnight as winds in that layer back to
NE. Higher up on the I305 surface there will a boundary across the
ern Lower Trans Pecos and points ewd which will serve to renew
precip possibilities toward early Mon AM thru 18Z, aided somewhat
by an upper jet passing to the N. After 18Z precip chance will
drop off to nil. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the
40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into
the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande. A mid
level trof is to drop sewd early Wed AM which may serve to build
surface high pressure south at least into the nrn CWFA. Otherwise
thickness will increase Wed PM and a warming trend will follow
through Sat. It does look hot and dry Fri-Sat across the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps of 25-30C. Dryline storms will be
possible east and south, maybe as early as Fri if moisture return
occurs quick enough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  66  46  76 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  68  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  70  52  78 /  50  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  49  68  50  78 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  62  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  67  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  65  39  75 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  69  48  78 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                         45  69  49  78 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           47  72  48  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
515
FXUS64 KMAF 011732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours as most terminals will
continue to see VFR flight conditions. Currently have a 3-4kft cloud
deck over the region along with gusty NE winds thanks to a strong
cold front that moved through early this morning. FST is the only
terminal reporting MVFR cigs but should return to VFR by mid
afternoon. Could see brief periods of light rain today but not
widespread enough to warrant mention in the TAF. Thunder may be
possible later this afternoon particularly near FST however
confidence is too low attm to include mention. Otherwise, winds will
continue to diminish through the afternoon.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front that was hanging around the area yesterday will get
a good push south as high pressure builds into eastern New Mexico
and West Texas this morning. Already we are seeing increasing
north winds to our north with temperatures dropping into the 40s.
The strong cold air advection will be aided by increasing clouds
to give much cooler highs today than we have seen in quite a
while. No doubt the calendar day high in most locations will be
what the temperature was around midnight, but there is still the
question of the afternoon highs for today. The MET/MAV are both
showing highs around 20 degrees colder than those seen yesterday
and given pretty good run to run consistency, decided to stay
close to guidance highs for this forecast though did go a few
degrees above just in case there are some afternoon breaks in the
cloud coverage. Models have been trending lighter with QPF amounts
on rainfall today likely due to the upper low producing the rain
weakening as it moves northeast into the plains later today.
Therefore have lowered PoPs today and even those areas that do see
precipitation will probably only see light amounts.

The surface high will only slowly move east providing unseasonably
cool temps through Tuesday before the heat returns midweek. An
upper level ridge will develop over the Rocky Mountains late in
the week causing highs to rise back to near 90 degrees. Another
large low pressure system will move into the west coast over the
weekend and may provide our next chance for rainfall. Models are
showing some disagreement with the track of this low with the GFS
being the strongest and farthest south. It is showing some decent
QPF over the weekend for our CWA however it is also showing the
low weakening and moving northeast as it moves across the Rockies.
That would be very similar to the current low which models were
bullish with precip early on and are now backing off so will keep
PoPs low in the extended for now.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  45  69  45 /  30  30  20   0
Carlsbad                       59  42  69  45 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         77  55  70  54 /  30  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  65  49  67  50 /  30  40  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  39  62  46 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          56  41  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          66  39  66  38 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  47  70  49 /  30  30  10   0
Odessa                         63  48  70  50 /  30  30  10   0
Wink                           64  48  73  49 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
629
FXUS64 KMAF 011102
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper level storm system across Arizona will impact the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours
with increasing winds and clouds. Cloud bases will lower to
around 3500 feet (VFR) this morning at most terminals and continue
into this evening. Included a PROB30 group for MVFR conditions in
thunderstorms at KFST from 21z to 03z. Confidence was not high
enough to mention precipitation at any of the other terminals but
will continue to monitor. Generally north to northeast winds of 20
to 30 mph with higher gusts are expected through mid afternoon
and then diminish to 10 to 20 mph later this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front that was hanging around the area yesterday will get
a good push south as high pressure builds into eastern New Mexico
and West Texas this morning. Already we are seeing increasing
north winds to our north with temperatures dropping into the 40s.
The strong cold air advection will be aided by increasing clouds
to give much cooler highs today than we have seen in quite a
while. No doubt the calendar day high in most locations will be
what the temperature was around midnight, but there is still the
question of the afternoon highs for today. The MET/MAV are both
showing highs around 20 degrees colder than those seen yesterday
and given pretty good run to run consistency, decided to stay
close to guidance highs for this forecast though did go a few
degrees above just in case there are some afternoon breaks in the
cloud coverage. Models have been trending lighter with QPF amounts
on rainfall today likely due to the upper low producing the rain
weakening as it moves northeast into the plains later today.
Therefore have lowered PoPs today and even those areas that do see
precipitation will probably only see light amounts.

The surface high will only slowly move east providing unseasonably
cool temps through Tuesday before the heat returns midweek. An
upper level ridge will develop over the Rocky Mountains late in
the week causing highs to rise back to near 90 degrees. Another
large low pressure system will move into the west coast over the
weekend and may provide our next chance for rainfall. Models are
showing some disagreement with the track of this low with the GFS
being the strongest and farthest south. It is showing some decent
QPF over the weekend for our CWA however it is also showing the
low weakening and moving northeast as it moves across the Rockies.
That would be very similar to the current low which models were
bullish with precip early on and are now backing off so will keep
PoPs low in the extended for now.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  45  69  45 /  30  30  20   0
Carlsbad                       59  42  69  45 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         77  55  70  54 /  30  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  65  49  67  50 /  30  40  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  39  62  46 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          56  41  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          66  39  66  38 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  47  70  49 /  30  30  10   0
Odessa                         63  48  70  50 /  30  30  10   0
Wink                           64  48  73  49 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12
013
FXUS64 KMAF 010849
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
349 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front that was hanging around the area yesterday will get
a good push south as high pressure builds into eastern New Mexico
and West Texas this morning. Already we are seeing increasing
north winds to our north with temperatures dropping into the 40s.
The strong cold air advection will be aided by increasing clouds
to give much cooler highs today than we have seen in quite a
while. No doubt the calendar day high in most locations will be
what the temperature was around midnight, but there is still the
question of the afternoon highs for today. The MET/MAV are both
showing highs around 20 degrees colder than those seen yesterday
and given pretty good run to run consistency, decided to stay
close to guidance highs for this forecast though did go a few
degrees above just in case there are some afternoon breaks in the
cloud coverage. Models have been trending lighter with QPF amounts
on rainfall today likely due to the upper low producing the rain
weakening as it moves northeast into the plains later today.
Therefore have lowered PoPs today and even those areas that do see
precipitation will probably only see light amounts.

The surface high will only slowly move east providing unseasonably
cool temps through Tuesday before the heat returns midweek. An
upper level ridge will develop over the Rocky Mountains late in
the week causing highs to rise back to near 90 degrees. Another
large low pressure system will move into the west coast over the
weekend and may provide our next chance for rainfall. Models are
showing some disagreement with the track of this low with the GFS
being the strongest and farthest south. It is showing some decent
QPF over the weekend for our CWA however it is also showing the
low weakening and moving northeast as it moves across the Rockies.
That would be very similar to the current low which models were
bullish with precip early on and are now backing off so will keep
PoPs low in the extended for now.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  45  69  45 /  30  30  20   0
Carlsbad                       59  42  69  45 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         77  55  70  54 /  30  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  65  49  67  50 /  30  40  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  39  62  46 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          56  41  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          66  39  66  38 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  47  70  49 /  30  30  10   0
Odessa                         63  48  70  50 /  30  30  10   0
Wink                           64  48  73  49 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10
630
FXUS64 KMAF 010519
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper level storm system across Arizona will impact the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours
with increasing winds and clouds. Cloud bases will lower to
around 3500 feet (VFR) between 09 and 12z Sunday at most
terminals with tempo MVFR ceilings expected at KMAF, KINK, and
KFST IN THE 12Z TO 16Z timeframe. Included a PROB30 group for
MVFR conditions in thunderstorms at KFST from 15z to 24z.
Confidence was not high enough to mention precipitation at any of
the other terminals but will continue to monitor. Generally north
to northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts are expected
to develop overnight and Sunday morning and then diminish to 10
to 20 mph Sunday afternoon.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Variable winds are expected to weaken somewhat and become easterly
to southeasterly between 03z - 06z. Winds will then intensify and
become gusty out of the northeast and north Sunday morning as a
cold front moves into the area. Low ceilings are expected for MAF
around 12z and could affect other terminals such as HOB and INK.
There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms beginning around 15z
but confidence is not high enough to put into the TAFs at this
time. Model guidance is showing the low clouds to linger into the
afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface pressure falls signal retreat of weak boundary back to the
n today with seasonably warm temps and unseasonably dry air s of
boundary. Boundary will surge back to the south late tonight with
the help of rain cooled air across CO/NM and front will arrive
before 12Z across the nrn half of CWFA and nearing the Rio Grande
near 00Z/Mon. Light precip is expected to develop in wake of the
front across parts of the PB especially btwn 15Z-21Z then dissipate
and redevelop farther s into the Lower Trans Pecos/PB after
06Z/Mon. Rainfall amounts may total near .50" in a few locations,
but most amounts are expected to be less. Much cooler temps will
follow the front Sun/Mon, with highs 10-25 degrees below normal!
Temp will be warmer Tue with drier air and lesser influence from
surface high pressure, but temps will still be below normal. More
seasonal temps are expected Wed-Fri with amplified mid level
ridging making a presence. A dryline may form Fri/Sat and GFS does
develop storms across the PB within falling heights and LLJ set-
up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  46  66  48 /  30  50  30  10
Carlsbad                       62  44  67  46 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         82  56  70  55 /  30  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  71  47  66  50 /  20  50  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 56  38  60  45 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          55  42  65  44 /  40  30  10  10
Marfa                          72  41  64  40 /   0  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           61  48  66  47 /  40  40  30  10
Odessa                         61  45  66  48 /  40  40  30  10
Wink                           66  47  70  50 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
488
FXUS64 KMAF 302322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Variable winds are expected to weaken somewhat and become easterly
to southeasterly between 03z - 06z. Winds will then intensify and
become gusty out of the northeast and north Sunday morning as a
cold front moves into the area. Low ceilings are expected for MAF
around 12z and could affect other terminals such as HOB and INK.
There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms beginning around 15z
but confidence is not high enough to put into the TAFs at this
time. Model guidance is showing the low clouds to linger into the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface pressure falls signal retreat of weak boundary back to the
n today with seasonably warm temps and unseasonably dry air s of
boundary. Boundary will surge back to the south late tonight with
the help of rain cooled air across CO/NM and front will arrive
before 12Z across the nrn half of CWFA and nearing the Rio Grande
near 00Z/Mon. Light precip is expected to develop in wake of the
front across parts of the PB especially btwn 15Z-21Z then dissipate
and redevelop farther s into the Lower Trans Pecos/PB after
06Z/Mon. Rainfall amounts may total near .50" in a few locations,
but most amounts are expected to be less. Much cooler temps will
follow the front Sun/Mon, with highs 10-25 degrees below normal!
Temp will be warmer Tue with drier air and lesser influence from
surface high pressure, but temps will still be below normal. More
seasonal temps are expected Wed-Fri with amplified mid level
ridging making a presence. A dryline may form Fri/Sat and GFS does
develop storms across the PB within falling heights and LLJ set-
up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  62  46  66 /  10  30  50  30
Carlsbad                       49  62  44  67 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         60  82  56  70 /  10  30  60  30
Fort Stockton                  54  71  47  66 /  10  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 44  56  38  60 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          46  55  42  65 /  10  40  30  10
Marfa                          38  72  41  64 /   0   0  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           51  61  48  66 /  10  40  40  30
Odessa                         52  61  45  66 /  10  40  40  30
Wink                           53  66  47  70 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
655
FXUS64 KMAF 301859
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface pressure falls signal retreat of weak boundary back to the
n today with seasonably warm temps and unseasonably dry air s of
boundary. Boundary will surge back to the south late tonight with
the help of rain cooled air across CO/NM and front will arrive
before 12Z across the nrn half of CWFA and nearing the Rio Grande
near 00Z/Mon. Light precip is expected to develop in wake of the
front across parts of the PB especially btwn 15Z-21Z then dissipate
and redevelop farther s into the Lower Trans Pecos/PB after
06Z/Mon. Rainfall amounts may total near .50" in a few locations,
but most amounts are expected to be less. Much cooler temps will
follow the front Sun/Mon, with highs 10-25 degrees below normal!
Temp will be warmer Tue with drier air and lesser influence from
surface high pressure, but temps will still be below normal. More
seasonal temps are expected Wed-Fri with amplified mid level
ridging making a presence. A dryline may form Fri/Sat and GFS does
develop storms across the PB within falling heights and LLJ set-
up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  62  46  66 /  10  30  50  30
Carlsbad                       49  62  44  67 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         60  82  56  70 /  10  30  60  30
Fort Stockton                  54  71  47  66 /  10  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 44  56  38  60 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          46  55  42  65 /  10  40  30  10
Marfa                          38  72  41  64 /   0   0  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           51  61  48  66 /  10  40  40  30
Odessa                         52  61  45  66 /  10  40  40  30
Wink                           53  66  47  70 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
902
FXUS64 KMAF 301748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1248 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is the potential
for low cigs and TSRA affecting some terminals Sunday morning. VFR
conditions will prevail areawide through today with fairly light
winds and mostly clear skies in place. A cold front is expected
early Sunday morning with gusty NE winds at all terminals by mid
morning. Will likely see low cigs fill in behind the front along
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence in MVFR
development is highest at HOB, INK and MAF but later shifts will
need to add mention at other terminals if confidence increases.
Also, did not include mention of rain/thunder activity potential in
the TAF attm for Sunday morning, however this may need to be added
in a subsequent issuance.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A weakening upper level low pressure system is forecast to move
eastward through tonight along the Nebraska, Kansas border. Behind
this system a weak cold front across the northern Permian Basin
and eastern New Mexico Plains will settle south towards the Pecos
River this morning and then push back east toward the northeast
Permian basin this afternoon due to heating and mixing. Winds will
be much lighter today with near normal temperatures under partly
to mostly sunny skies.

For tonight the cold front will intensify and make a renewed
surge to the south toward the Pecos River. In the meantime
the next southern stream upper level low pressure system will
settle into Arizona by 12z Sunday Morning. Isentropic lift
ahead of the approaching upper level system will begin tonight
with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible along and
north of the boundary.

For Sunday through Monday the chance for showers and thunderstorms
will increase areawide as the cold front continues to sink toward
Mexico with isentropic lift above the cold front and large scale
lift associated with the upper jet increase. Unseasonably cool
temperatures are expected in this pattern across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico in the cooler air with widespread clouds and
some precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
slowly builds over the forecast area from the west. There could
be isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out into the forecast.
Temperatures are expected to warm but remain below normal Monday
through Wednesday and then climb to near normal values by next
Thursday and Friday.

The next Pacific system could bring the next chance for
precipitation to west Texas by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  52  66  49 /   0  10  30  50
Carlsbad                       82  50  61  47 /  10  10  30  20
Dryden                         92  63  83  59 /   0  10  30  60
Fort Stockton                  87  57  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 76  47  59  41 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          78  47  57  45 /   0  10  30  30
Marfa                          78  42  75  42 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           84  54  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Odessa                         84  55  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Wink                           88  55  69  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
802
FXUS64 KMAF 301118
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak cold front has moved into the Permian Basin but is becoming
stationary near MAF. Winds will be light and variable at MAF, HOB,
INK the next few hours then become westerly along with the other
TAF locations through the remainder of the day. This evening the
front will get a renewed push south shifting winds from the
northeast by 06Z. VFR conditions will remain through most of the
next 24 hours though there may be some MVFR CIGs developing near
MAF/HOB at the end of the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A weakening upper level low pressure system is forecast to move
eastward through tonight along the Nebraska, Kansas border. Behind
this system a weak cold front across the northern Permian Basin
and eastern New Mexico Plains will settle south towards the Pecos
River this morning and then push back east toward the northeast
Permian basin this afternoon due to heating and mixing. Winds will
be much lighter today with near normal temperatures under partly
to mostly sunny skies.

For tonight the cold front will intensify and make a renewed
surge to the south toward the Pecos River. In the meantime
the next southern stream upper level low pressure system will
settle into Arizona by 12z Sunday Morning. Isentropic lift
ahead of the approaching upper level system will begin tonight
with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible along and
north of the boundary.

For Sunday through Monday the chance for showers and thunderstorms
will increase areawide as the cold front continues to sink toward
Mexico with isentropic lift above the cold front and large scale
lift associated with the upper jet increase. Unseasonably cool
temperatures are expected in this pattern across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico in the cooler air with widespread clouds and
some precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
slowly builds over the forecast area from the west. There could
be isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out into the forecast.
Temperatures are expected to warm but remain below normal Monday
through Wednesday and then climb to near normal values by next
Thursday and Friday.

The next Pacific system could bring the next chance for
precipitation to west Texas by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  52  66  49 /   0  10  30  50
Carlsbad                       82  50  61  47 /  10  10  30  20
Dryden                         92  63  83  59 /   0  10  30  60
Fort Stockton                  87  57  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 76  47  59  41 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          78  47  57  45 /   0  10  30  30
Marfa                          78  42  75  42 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           84  54  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Odessa                         84  55  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Wink                           88  55  69  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
086
FXUS64 KMAF 300752
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
252 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A weakening upper level low pressure system is forecast to move
eastward through tonight along the Nebraska, Kansas border. Behind
this system a weak cold front across the northern Permian Basin
and eastern New Mexico Plains will settle south towards the Pecos
River this morning and then push back east toward the northeast
Permian basin this afternoon due to heating and mixing. Winds will
be much lighter today with near normal temperatures under partly
to mostly sunny skies.

For tonight the cold front will intensify and make a renewed
surge to the south toward the Pecos River. In the meantime
the next southern stream upper level low pressure system will
settle into Arizona by 12z Sunday Morning. Isentropic lift
ahead of the approaching upper level system will begin tonight
with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible along and
north of the boundary.

For Sunday through Monday the chance for showers and thunderstorms
will increase areawide as the cold front continues to sink toward
Mexico with isentropic lift above the cold front and large scale
lift associated with the upper jet increase. Unseasonably cool
temperatures are expected in this pattern across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico in the cooler air with widespread clouds and
some precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
slowly builds over the forecast area from the west. There could
be isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out into the forecast.
Temperatures are expected to warm but remain below normal Monday
through Wednesday and then climb to near normal values by next
Thursday and Friday.

The next Pacific system could bring the next chance for
precipitation to west Texas by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  52  66  49 /   0  10  30  50
Carlsbad                       82  50  61  47 /  10  10  30  20
Dryden                         92  63  83  59 /   0  10  30  60
Fort Stockton                  87  57  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 76  47  59  41 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          78  47  57  45 /   0  10  30  30
Marfa                          78  42  75  42 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           84  54  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Odessa                         84  55  67  50 /   0  10  40  40
Wink                           88  55  69  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/12
888
FXUS64 KMAF 300429
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1129 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Light southwest to west winds
will become gusty 18-00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 924 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to cancel the Red Flag Warning.

DISCUSSION...

Observations across the area are no longer at red flag criteria so
the Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. With very few exceptions,
red flag conditions are not expected for the rest of the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
963
FXUS64 KMAF 300224
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
924 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to cancel the Red Flag Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Observations across the area are no longer at red flag criteria so
the Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. With very few exceptions,
red flag conditions are not expected for the rest of the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
290
FXUS64 KMAF 300011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
711 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Wind Advisory to expire and to cancel the rest
of the High Wind Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty southwest to west winds across southeast New Mexico and most
of west Texas will begin to diminish between 30/00Z and 30/01Z as
they begin to decouple from stronger low and mid level wind maxima.
There may be a locations or two, especially over the Permian Basin
where the strongest mid level winds are indicated, that linger a
little longer, but the general trend will be for decreasing surface
wind speeds.  Therefore, will allow the Wind Advisory to expire at
the appointed time of 30/00Z.  The High Wind Warning in the
Guadalupe Mountains is supposed to last until 30/03Z.  However, none
of the observations sites are indicating high winds currently, and
have shown very few have struggled to surpass high wind
criteriaof40mph sustained or gusts of 58 mph or more.  Since model
data are indicating mid level winds over the Guadalupe Mountains
will diminish in the next couple of hours, will go ahead and cancel
the rest of the High Wind Warning at 30/00Z.

Although surface wind speeds will decrease between 30/00Z and
30/03Z, speeds will be strong enough to warrant continuation of the
Red Flag Warning until 30/03Z.  Will send an update at that time to
cancel it if wind speeds drop below 20 mph sustained.  The rest of
the forecast appears to be in good shape, so plan on not making any
other changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

See 00z aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease in strength over the next few hours and generally weaken
to below 12 kts during the overnight period. Winds will become
elevated out of the southwest Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
058
FXUS64 KMAF 292321
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease in strength over the next few hours and generally weaken
to below 12 kts during the overnight period. Winds will become
elevated out of the southwest Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

99/99/
117
FXUS64 KMAF 292006 CCA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
418
FXUS64 KMAF 291912
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
212 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Friday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near
10 pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon
will bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
942
FXUS64 KMAF 291744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southwest
winds will remain gusty through early evening, with gusts to 30 to
35KT possible. Gusts will diminish after sunset, with wind speeds
remaining generally 12KT or less thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A potent upper level low pressure system across the Four Corners
Region will move east onto the western High Plains by late this
afternoon. As this occurs westerly flow through the column will
rapidly push drier air east of the area this morning. Will include a
pre first period slight chance for thunderstorms across mainly the
Permian Basin as the dryline surges east. By mid morning windy
conditions are expected areawide due to a decent surface pressure
gradient and deep mixing developing. Decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for today.
Think the mos guidance is underestimating winds based on surface
gradient progged and contributions of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue the High Wind Warning today into this evening for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Went above guidance on high temperatures today
due to strong downslope and clearing skies.

The upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the central
Plains and weaken tonight through Saturday night. This will allow
winds to decrease significantly with mostly clear skies continuing
with near normal temperatures.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold front and
surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary. Behind the front
high temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be much below
normal aided by widespread cloudiness and precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
builds over the forecast area from the west.  There could be
isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out. Temperatures will
remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday and then climb to near normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds and abundant low level moisture are currently being
seen across the area this morning. An upper level trough will move
across the area today pushing a dryline east and bringing in much
drier air. This combined with gusty west winds will cause Red Flag
conditions from the western Permian Basin, west to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions may be seen farther east
but this area was not included in the Red Flag Warning due to
abundant moisture in the fuels. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the dryline as it moves east creating the potential for some
lightning starts.

Saturday the dry air will remain across the area but lighter winds
will diminish the fire weather threat everywhere except the
Guadalupe Mountains. Breezy conditions will remain in the mountains
may create critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Moisture increases Sunday with
widespread rainfall possible which should end the fire weather
threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  80  52  69 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       49  82  50  63 /   0  10  10  30
Dryden                         59  90  62  84 /  10   0  10  40
Fort Stockton                  54  86  56  77 /   0   0  10  40
Guadalupe Pass                 49  73  47  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          46  77  47  63 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  77  44  79 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  54  71 /  10   0  10  30
Odessa                         55  83  54  72 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  86  54  73 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
696
FXUS64 KMAF 291129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Despite HOB showing a visibility of around 3SM at TAF issuance
time, VIS should improve very shortly with increasing southwest
and west winds this morning and will begin the TAF with VFR
conditions. All other TAF sites have already showed an improvement
in visibility and should stay VFR through the next 24 hours.
Southwest winds will become more westerly and gust to 30 to 35 kts
this afternoon diminishing after sunset.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A potent upper level low pressure system across the Four Corners
Region will move east onto the western High Plains by late this
afternoon. As this occurs westerly flow through the column will
rapidly push drier air east of the area this morning. Will include a
pre first period slight chance for thunderstorms across mainly the
Permian Basin as the dryline surges east. By mid morning windy
conditions are expected areawide due to a decent surface pressure
gradient and deep mixing developing. Decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for today.
Think the mos guidance is underestimating winds based on surface
gradient progged and contributions of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue the High Wind Warning today into this evening for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Went above guidance on high temperatures today
due to strong downslope and clearing skies.

The upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the central
Plains and weaken tonight through Saturday night. This will allow
winds to decrease significantly with mostly clear skies continuing
with near normal temperatures.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold front and
surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary. Behind the front
high temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be much below
normal aided by widespread cloudiness and precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
builds over the forecast area from the west.  There could be
isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out. Temperatures will
remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday and then climb to near normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds and abundant low level moisture are currently being
seen across the area this morning. An upper level trough will move
across the area today pushing a dryline east and bringing in much
drier air. This combined with gusty west winds will cause Red Flag
conditions from the western Permian Basin, west to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions may be seen farther east
but this area was not included in the Red Flag Warning due to
abundant moisture in the fuels. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the dryline as it moves east creating the potential for some
lightning starts.

Saturday the dry air will remain across the area but lighter winds
will diminish the fire weather threat everywhere except the
Guadalupe Mountains. Breezy conditions will remain in the mountains
may create critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Moisture increases Sunday with
widespread rainfall possible which should end the fire weather
threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  50  80  52 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       82  49  82  50 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  59  90  62 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  86  54  86  56 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  46  77  47 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          77  39  77  44 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  53  84  54 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                         85  55  83  54 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           87  51  86  54 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
921
FXUS64 KMAF 290841
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
341 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A potent upper level low pressure system across the Four Corners
Region will move east onto the western High Plains by late this
afternoon. As this occurs westerly flow through the column will
rapidly push drier air east of the area this morning. Will include a
pre first period slight chance for thunderstorms across mainly the
Permian Basin as the dryline surges east. By mid morning windy
conditions are expected areawide due to a decent surface pressure
gradient and deep mixing developing. Decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for today.
Think the mos guidance is underestimating winds based on surface
gradient progged and contributions of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue the High Wind Warning today into this evening for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Went above guidance on high temperatures today
due to strong downslope and clearing skies.

The upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the central
Plains and weaken tonight through Saturday night. This will allow
winds to decrease significantly with mostly clear skies continuing
with near normal temperatures.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold front and
surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary. Behind the front
high temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be much below
normal aided by widespread cloudiness and precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
builds over the forecast area from the west.  There could be
isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out. Temperatures will
remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday and then climb to near normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds and abundant low level moisture are currently being
seen across the area this morning. An upper level trough will move
across the area today pushing a dryline east and bringing in much
drier air. This combined with gusty west winds will cause Red Flag
conditions from the western Permian Basin, west to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions may be seen farther east
but this area was not included in the Red Flag Warning due to
abundant moisture in the fuels. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the dryline as it moves east creating the potential for some
lightning starts.

Saturday the dry air will remain across the area but lighter winds
will diminish the fire weather threat everywhere except the
Guadalupe Mountains. Breezy conditions will remain in the mountains
may create critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Moisture increases Sunday with
widespread rainfall possible which should end the fire weather
threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  50  80  52 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       82  49  82  50 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  59  90  62 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  86  54  86  56 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  46  77  47 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          77  39  77  44 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  53  84  54 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                         85  55  83  54 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           87  51  86  54 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/12
382
FXUS64 KMAF 290525
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Southeast winds will shift from the west later tonight then become
gusty during the day before subsiding after 00Z. Satellite shows
patchy MVFR CIGs moving up from the southeast and may affect MAF
the next few hours. A dryline moving east will shift the winds
from the west and will push east any low clouds leaving VFR
conditions through the remainder of the period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the dryline has bowed westward in its
retreat, and extends from near KSGV-KINK-KPEQ-KFST-KPEQ. This
feature is forecast to retreat a bit more thru at least 06Z, then
begin mixing eastward as stronger westerlies push into the region.
Latest HRRR seems to have finally gotten right after 00Z data came
in, and still hints at convection developing overnight as the
dryline surges east. 00Z NAM agrees as well. W/steep mid-lvl LRs
still forecast, and strong deep lyr shear rounding the base of the
trough, still cannot rule out a svr threat overnight. However,
based on latest HRRR/NAM, we`ll lower POPs some, but keep coverage
the same. In addition, we`ll update other parameters as necessary,
and button up the fire wx grids w/the expiration of the RFW.
Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough digging over the Four Corners
region this afternoon. This has led to increasing SW flow aloft and
the development of a surface low over E NM. Moisture has begun to
surge back west across the area in response to height falls
associated with the upper trough. A sharpening dryline may be a
focus for a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon
across the eastern half of the Permian Basin. The best chance for
storms comes later tonight as the dryline retreats west and large
scale lift arrives with the upper trough. Storms are expected to
develop across the western Permian Basin where a Pacific front
will combine with the dryline and move back east across the region
overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds given steepening lapse rates and an increasing LLJ.

These storms move east quickly Friday morning with windy, dry
conditions filling in across the region Friday afternoon. The base
of the upper trough will graze our area similar to the system this
past Tuesday. Strong westerly winds will mix to the surface,
especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning across the Guadalupe
Mountains. Strong winds are also possible east of the mountains so a
Winds Advisory may be issued on later shifts.

Another upper trough will drop south across Nevada and Arizona
Saturday helping to again draw moisture back west across Texas. At
the same time, a strong cold front will move south across the area
Sunday. Showers and storms are expected to increase along and behind
the front Sunday and Monday as the upper trough approaches.
Temperatures look to cool significantly behind the front due to the
widespread clouds and precip. It is possible many locations may drop
into the 50`s Sunday afternoon and stay there trough Monday! We will
continue to monitor the forecast and make changes if needed.

An upper ridge builds in behind this system, but temperatures stay
cool through midweek before rebounding to near normal late next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions continue to reside across the area and
with an upper trough to the west there are increasing winds too.
The warm, dry and unstable conditions are reflected in a moderate
Haines Index of 5 and the RFW continues across the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Critical fire weather concerns
will expand on Friday to reach farther south into the Davis Mtns
and east into the western PB. Temps will cool, but winds will be
stronger Friday. The Trans Pecos and southeast NM plains continue
to undergo substantial drying and are at or very near the 90th
percentile using ERC-G from TAMFS and certainly supports critical
fire weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  79  52  69 /  10   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       49  83  50  66 /   0  10   0  30
Dryden                         59  91  61  85 /  10   0   0  30
Fort Stockton                  54  86  56  82 /   0   0   0  30
Guadalupe Pass                 49  74  48  64 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          46  77  48  64 /   0   0   0  30
Marfa                          39  77  43  79 /   0  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  54  71 /  10   0  10  30
Odessa                         55  84  54  71 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  87  55  74 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
745
FXUS64 KMAF 290300
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1000 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the dryline has bowed westward in its
retreat, and extends from near KSGV-KINK-KPEQ-KFST-KPEQ. This
feature is forecast to retreat a bit more thru at least 06Z, then
begin mixing eastward as stronger westerlies push into the region.
Latest HRRR seems to have finally gotten right after 00Z data came
in, and still hints at convection developing overnight as the
dryline surges east. 00Z NAM agrees as well. W/steep mid-lvl LRs
still forecast, and strong deep lyr shear rounding the base of the
trough, still cannot rule out a svr threat overnight. However,
based on latest HRRR/NAM, we`ll lower POPs some, but keep coverage
the same. In addition, we`ll update other parameters as necessary,
and button up the fire wx grids w/the expiration of the RFW.
Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough digging over the Four Corners
region this afternoon. This has led to increasing SW flow aloft and
the development of a surface low over E NM. Moisture has begun to
surge back west across the area in response to height falls
associated with the upper trough. A sharpening dryline may be a
focus for a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon
across the eastern half of the Permian Basin. The best chance for
storms comes later tonight as the dryline retreats west and large
scale lift arrives with the upper trough. Storms are expected to
develop across the western Permian Basin where a Pacific front
will combine with the dryline and move back east across the region
overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds given steepening lapse rates and an increasing LLJ.

These storms move east quickly Friday morning with windy, dry
conditions filling in across the region Friday afternoon. The base
of the upper trough will graze our area similar to the system this
past Tuesday. Strong westerly winds will mix to the surface,
especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning across the Guadalupe
Mountains. Strong winds are also possible east of the mountains so a
Winds Advisory may be issued on later shifts.

Another upper trough will drop south across Nevada and Arizona
Saturday helping to again draw moisture back west across Texas. At
the same time, a strong cold front will move south across the area
Sunday. Showers and storms are expected to increase along and behind
the front Sunday and Monday as the upper trough approaches.
Temperatures look to cool significantly behind the front due to the
widespread clouds and precip. It is possible many locations may drop
into the 50`s Sunday afternoon and stay there trough Monday! We will
continue to monitor the forecast and make changes if needed.

An upper ridge builds in behind this system, but temperatures stay
cool through midweek before rebounding to near normal late next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions continue to reside across the area and
with an upper trough to the west there are increasing winds too.
The warm, dry and unstable conditions are reflected in a moderate
Haines Index of 5 and the RFW continues across the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Critical fire weather concerns
will expand on Friday to reach farther south into the Davis Mtns
and east into the western PB. Temps will cool, but winds will be
stronger Friday. The Trans Pecos and southeast NM plains continue
to undergo substantial drying and are at or very near the 90th
percentile using ERC-G from TAMFS and certainly supports critical
fire weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  83  50  79 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       51  80  49  83 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                         62  93  59  91 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  61  84  54  86 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  69  49  74 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          52  76  46  77 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          39  75  39  77 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  83  53  84 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         65  83  55  84 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           53  85  51  87 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/44
594
FXUS64 KMAF 282327
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds along and east of the dryline will be elevated and gusty
out of southeast whereas winds to the west of this line will
decrease in strength later this evening. There is a chance of
storms along and east of this dryline but do not have enough
confidence to put into the TAFs at this time. Winds will become
elevated and gusty out of the west by 15z as the dryline moves to
the east of all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough digging over the Four Corners
region this afternoon. This has led to increasing SW flow aloft and
the development of a surface low over E NM. Moisture has begun to
surge back west across the area in response to height falls
associated with the upper trough. A sharpening dryline may be a
focus for a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon
across the eastern half of the Permian Basin. The best chance for
storms comes later tonight as the dryline retreats west and large
scale lift arrives with the upper trough. Storms are expected to
develop across the western Permian Basin where a Pacific front
will combine with the dryline and move back east across the region
overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds given steepening lapse rates and an increasing LLJ.

These storms move east quickly Friday morning with windy, dry
conditions filling in across the region Friday afternoon. The base
of the upper trough will graze our area similar to the system this
past Tuesday. Strong westerly winds will mix to the surface,
especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning across the Guadalupe
Mountains. Strong winds are also possible east of the mountains so a
Winds Advisory may be issued on later shifts.

Another upper trough will drop south across Nevada and Arizona
Saturday helping to again draw moisture back west across Texas. At
the same time, a strong cold front will move south across the area
Sunday. Showers and storms are expected to increase along and behind
the front Sunday and Monday as the upper trough approaches.
Temperatures look to cool significantly behind the front due to the
widespread clouds and precip. It is possible many locations may drop
into the 50`s Sunday afternoon and stay there trough Monday! We will
continue to monitor the forecast and make changes if needed.

An upper ridge builds in behind this system, but temperatures stay
cool through midweek before rebounding to near normal late next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions continue to reside across the area and
with an upper trough to the west there are increasing winds too.
The warm, dry and unstable conditions are reflected in a moderate
Haines Index of 5 and the RFW continues across the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Critical fire weather concerns
will expand on Friday to reach farther south into the Davis Mtns
and east into the western PB. Temps will cool, but winds will be
stronger Friday. The Trans Pecos and southeast NM plains continue
to undergo substantial drying and are at or very near the 90th
percentile using ERC-G from TAMFS and certainly supports critical
fire weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  83  50  79 /  40  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       54  80  49  83 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                         66  93  59  91 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  59  84  54  86 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  69  49  74 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          50  76  46  77 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          44  75  39  77 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  83  53  84 /  40  10  10   0
Odessa                         62  83  55  84 /  30  10   0   0
Wink                           56  85  51  87 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
641
FXUS64 KMAF 281915
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
215 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough digging over the Four Corners
region this afternoon. This has led to increasing SW flow aloft and
the development of a surface low over E NM. Moisture has begun to
surge back west across the area in response to height falls
associated with the upper trough. A sharpening dryline may be a
focus for a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon
across the eastern half of the Permian Basin. The best chance for
storms comes later tonight as the dryline retreats west and large
scale lift arrives with the upper trough. Storms are expected to
develop across the western Permian Basin where a Pacific front
will combine with the dryline and move back east across the region
overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds given steepening lapse rates and an increasing LLJ.

These storms move east quickly Friday morning with windy, dry
conditions filling in across the region Friday afternoon. The base
of the upper trough will graze our area similar to the system this
past Tuesday. Strong westerly winds will mix to the surface,
especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning across the Guadalupe
Mountains. Strong winds are also possible east of the mountains so a
Winds Advisory may be issued on later shifts.

Another upper trough will drop south across Nevada and Arizona
Saturday helping to again draw moisture back west across Texas. At
the same time, a strong cold front will move south across the area
Sunday. Showers and storms are expected to increase along and behind
the front Sunday and Monday as the upper trough approaches.
Temperatures look to cool significantly behind the front due to the
widespread clouds and precip. It is possible many locations may drop
into the 50`s Sunday afternoon and stay there trough Monday! We will
continue to monitor the forecast and make changes if needed.

An upper ridge builds in behind this system, but temperatures stay
cool through midweek before rebounding to near normal late next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions continue to reside across the area and
with an upper trough to the west there are increasing winds too.
The warm, dry and unstable conditions are reflected in a moderate
Haines Index of 5 and the RFW continues across the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Critical fire weather concerns
will expand on Friday to reach farther south into the Davis Mtns
and east into the western PB. Temps will cool, but winds will be
stronger Friday. The Trans Pecos and southeast NM plains continue
to undergo substantial drying and are at or very near the 90th
percentile using ERC-G from TAMFS and certainly supports critical
fire weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  83  50  79 /  40  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       54  80  49  83 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                         66  93  59  91 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  59  84  54  86 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  69  49  74 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          50  76  46  77 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          44  75  39  77 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  83  53  84 /  40  10  10   0
Odessa                         62  83  55  84 /  30  10   0   0
Wink                           56  85  51  87 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

49/29
559
FXUS64 KMAF 281059
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today, along with gusty south to
southwest winds at all area terminals.  There is a low chance TSRA
will develop on a dryline this afternoon and tonight, but
probabilities are too low to include at any given site.  MVFR
ceilings may develop and impinge upon KMAF late tonight, but
appear to be too transient to mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

An upper level low pressure system across southern Nevada will
move east across the southern Rockies through tonight. As this
occurs it will intensify and take on a negative tilt. East of this
upper low, a surface low will develop over the western high plains
region in the southwest flow aloft. Low level thermal ridging will
push temperatures well above normal this afternoon. The backing
mid level flow will draw gulf moisture northwestward into the
Permian Basin late today and tonight and the intensifying system
is expected to generate decent large scale lift as it becomes
negatively tilted. This should allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms to develop along the dryline late this
afternoon in intense heating across the central/eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. As the upper system becomes
negatively tilted tonight, thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage and expand westward across the remainder of the
Permian Basin and the southeast New Mexico Plains along the
retreating dryline. A few storms could be severe given bulk shear
of 40 to 45 knots with capes ranging from 1000 to 3000 j/kg.

This upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast from the
southern Rockies into the central Plains Friday and Saturday. This
should push the precipitation east of the forecast area by Friday
afternoon through Saturday night. Breezy to windy conditions
should develop on Friday with near to slightly above normal
temperatures on Friday and Saturday as downslope flow and deep
mixing develop behind the surface system.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Thunderstorms will once again be
possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold
front and surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary.
Behind the front high temperatures Sunday and Monday are
expected to be much below normal.

Precipitation chances should decrease behind this system
Tuesday through Thursday with isolated thunderstorms confined
to the mountains and or portions of the southeast New Mexico
Plains. Temperatures will remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday
and then climb to near normal values by next Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

More dry conditions and above normal temperatures are in store
for the entire forecast area today. Since fire danger remains
high, and 20 foot wind speeds are expected to occur across the
Guadalupe Mountains and portions of the SE NM Plains, will issue a
Red Flag Warning for these areas from 28/17Z to 29/03Z. In spite
of minimum afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent roughly
along and west of a Lamesa to Midland to Sanderson line this
afternoon, 20 foot wind speeds will stay below 20 mph sustained
for the most part, except in the RFW area mentioned above. A
dryline will take shape over the eastern CWA this afternoon, and
could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Rain chances will increase tonight as the dryline surges westward
with good or better recovery roughly along and east of a Hobbs to
Big Bend line, and poor recovery to the west of this line.

The dryline will push east of the region Friday morning.
Temperatures are expected to rise near normal levels by afternoon,
but 20 foot wind speeds will likely rise above 20 mph sustained over
locations along and west of a Hobbs to Midland to Fort Stockton to
Big Bend line.  Since fire danger will still be high or better in
these areas, will issue a Fire Weather Watch from 29/16Z to 30/03Z
for most areas west of the above line.  Recovery Friday night will
be poor in most locations as low level winds remain out of the west.
High temperatures will remain above normal Saturday afternoon, but
wind speeds look too weak for additional fire weather highlights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  63  86  53 /  20  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  53  80  49 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         92  64  93  61 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  57  85  55 /  10  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  50  70  48 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          85  51  76  45 /  10  20  10   0
Marfa                          83  43  76  40 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           89  62  84  55 /  20  30  10  10
Odessa                         89  62  84  55 /  10  30  10  10
Wink                           92  56  85  52 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/12
665
FXUS64 KMAF 280856
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
356 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system across southern Nevada will
move east across the southern Rockies through tonight. As this
occurs it will intensify and take on a negative tilt. East of
this upper low, a surface low will develop over the western high
plains region in the southwest flow aloft. Low level thermal
ridging will push temperatures well above normal this afternoon.
The backing mid level flow will draw gulf moisture northwestward
into the Permian Basin late today and tonight and the intensifying
system is expected to generate decent large scale lift as it
becomes negatively tilted. This should allow for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms to develop along the dryline late
this afternoon in intense heating across the central/eastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. As the upper system becomes
negatively tilted tonight, thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage and expand westward across the remainder of the
Permian Basin and the southeast New Mexico Plains along the
retreating dryline. A few storms could be severe given bulk shear
of 40 to 45 knots with capes ranging from 1000 to 3000 j/kg.

This upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast from the
southern Rockies into the central Plains Friday and Saturday. This
should push the precipitation east of the forecast area by Friday
afternoon through Saturday night. Breezy to windy conditions
should develop on Friday with near to slightly above normal
temperatures on Friday and Saturday as downslope flow and deep
mixing develop behind the surface system.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Thunderstorms will once again be
possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold
front and surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary.
Behind the front high temperatures Sunday and Monday are
expected to be much below normal.

Precipitation chances should decrease behind this system
Tuesday through Thursday with isolated thunderstorms confined
to the mountains and or portions of the southeast New Mexico
Plains. Temperatures will remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday
and then climb to near normal values by next Thursday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
More dry conditions and above normal temperatures are in store
for the entire forecast area today. Since fire danger remains
high, and 20 foot wind speeds are expected to occur across the
Guadalupe Mountains and portions of the SE NM Plains, will issue a
Red Flag Warning for these areas from 28/17Z to 29/03Z. In spite
of minimum afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent roughly
along and west of a Lamesa to Midland to Sanderson line this
afternoon, 20 foot wind speeds will stay below 20 mph sustained
for the most part, except in the RFW area mentioned above. A
dryline will take shape over the eastern CWA this afternoon, and
could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Rain chances will increase tonight as the dryline surges westward
with good or better recovery roughly along and east of a Hobbs to
Big Bend line, and poor recovery to the west of this line.

The dryline will push east of the region Friday morning.
Temperatures are expected to rise near normal levels by afternoon,
but 20 foot wind speeds will likely rise above 20 mph sustained over
locations along and west of a Hobbs to Midland to Fort Stockton to
Big Bend line.  Since fire danger will still be high or better in
these areas, will issue a Fire Weather Watch from 29/16Z to 30/03Z
for most areas west of the above line.  Recovery Friday night will
be poor in most locations as low level winds remain out of the west.
High temperatures will remain above normal Saturday afternoon, but
wind speeds look too weak for additional fire weather highlights.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  63  86  53 /  20  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  53  80  49 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         92  64  93  61 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  57  85  55 /  10  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  50  70  48 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          85  51  76  45 /  10  20  10   0
Marfa                          83  43  76  40 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           89  62  84  55 /  20  30  10  10
Odessa                         89  62  84  55 /  10  30  10  10
Wink                           92  56  85  52 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/12
045
FXUS64 KMAF 280510
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1210 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours at all
terminals, except perhaps KMAF early Friday morning.  MVFR ceilings
may develop and spread northwest over KMAF, but since this will
occur near the end of the current forecast period will forego
inclusion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  83  53  81 /  40  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       53  80  49  81 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         64  93  61  88 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  57  85  55  83 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  69  48  71 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          51  76  45  77 /  30  10   0  10
Marfa                          43  76  40  76 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  84  55  82 /  40  10  10   0
Odessa                         62  84  55  82 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           56  85  52  84 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM MDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today through this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
268
FXUS64 KMAF 280323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1023 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc observations show that, while critical RHs remain over much of
the region, 20` winds have decoupled. We`ll do a quick update for
the expiration of the RFW, and update other parameters as
necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Breezy
southwest winds this evening will become light and back toward the
south overnight. Expect winds to increase to around 12-15KT
sustained by late morning/early afternoon Thursday, with gusts to
around 20-25KT possible for most terminals, though FST and PEQ
will likely see winds remain under 12KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that brought severe weather to the far
eastern Permian Basin yesterday continues to shift off to the
northeast. Dry, westerly flow has developed across the area in its
wake with temperatures warming into the 80`s this afternoon. Our
next weather maker will dig over the Four Corners Thursday and help
transition flow aloft across the region to the southwest. A surface
low will develop over the area and help pull in Gulf moisture during
the day Thursday. Large scale ascent and increasing lift will pull a
dryline back west across the region Thursday evening. There is still
a chance we may see a few storms form on the dryline Thursday night,
but models continue to be hesitant in showing too much QPF. A
strong LLJ will develop amid steepening lapse rates so any storms
that do develop may become severe with large hail and damaging
winds.

The upper trough will take a similar path to today`s system and lift
into the Plains Friday into Saturday. Again we will see dry westerly
flow take over with more fire weather concerns entering the picture
Friday afternoon. Winds are expected to increase significantly
across the Guadalupe Mountains Friday so have issued a High Wind
Watch. Models had been differing early next week with respect to
another upper system developing to our west. The GFS has now come
back into better agreement with the ECMWF and both now show a strong
cold front moving through with widespread precip Sunday into
Monday. Will continue to monitor this time period as changes to
the forecast over the next few days are likely.

FIRE WEATHER...

It has already become windy today in the Guadalupe Mountains but
low RH is still lacking... it should fall below 15 percent this
afternoon so will leave the Red Flag warning in effect into this
evening. Marginal fire wx conditions are possible across SE NM on
Thursday. It will be warmer Thursday which should help it reach RH
below 15 percent... but 20ft wind may not reach needed criteria.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch in effect for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  87  63  83 /   0  10  40  10
Carlsbad                       51  89  53  80 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         62  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  57  94  57  85 /   0  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 49  80  50  69 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          51  86  51  76 /   0  10  30  10
Marfa                          44  84  43  76 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           59  91  62  84 /   0  10  40  10
Odessa                         58  91  62  84 /   0  10  30  10
Wink                           49  95  56  85 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

84/44
272
FXUS64 KMAF 272339
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
639 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Breezy
southwest winds this evening will become light and back toward the
south overnight. Expect winds to increase to around 12-15KT
sustained by late morning/early afternoon Thursday, with gusts to
around 20-25KT possible for most terminals, though FST and PEQ
will likely see winds remain under 12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that brought severe weather to the far
eastern Permian Basin yesterday continues to shift off to the
northeast. Dry, westerly flow has developed across the area in its
wake with temperatures warming into the 80`s this afternoon. Our
next weather maker will dig over the Four Corners Thursday and help
transition flow aloft across the region to the southwest. A surface
low will develop over the area and help pull in Gulf moisture during
the day Thursday. Large scale ascent and increasing lift will pull a
dryline back west across the region Thursday evening. There is still
a chance we may see a few storms form on the dryline Thursday night,
but models continue to be hesitant in showing too much QPF. A
strong LLJ will develop amid steepening lapse rates so any storms
that do develop may become severe with large hail and damaging
winds.

The upper trough will take a similar path to today`s system and lift
into the Plains Friday into Saturday. Again we will see dry westerly
flow take over with more fire weather concerns entering the picture
Friday afternoon. Winds are expected to increase significantly
across the Guadalupe Mountains Friday so have issued a High Wind
Watch. Models had been differing early next week with respect to
another upper system developing to our west. The GFS has now come
back into better agreement with the ECMWF and both now show a strong
cold front moving through with widespread precip Sunday into
Monday. Will continue to monitor this time period as changes to
the forecast over the next few days are likely.

FIRE WEATHER...

It has already become windy today in the Guadalupe Mountains but
low RH is still lacking... it should fall below 15 percent this
afternoon so will leave the Red Flag warning in effect into this
evening. Marginal fire wx conditions are possible across SE NM on
Thursday. It will be warmer Thursday which should help it reach RH
below 15 percent... but 20ft wind may not reach needed criteria.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch in effect for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  87  63  83 /   0  10  40  10
Carlsbad                       50  89  53  80 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         61  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  55  94  57  85 /   0  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 50  80  50  69 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          48  86  51  76 /   0  10  30  10
Marfa                          42  84  43  76 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           57  91  62  84 /   0  10  40  10
Odessa                         58  91  62  84 /   0  10  30  10
Wink                           54  95  56  85 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
108
FXUS64 KMAF 271918
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
218 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that brought severe weather to the far
eastern Permian Basin yesterday continues to shift off to the
northeast. Dry, westerly flow has developed across the area in its
wake with temperatures warming into the 80`s this afternoon. Our
next weather maker will dig over the Four Corners Thursday and help
transition flow aloft across the region to the southwest. A surface
low will develop over the area and help pull in Gulf moisture during
the day Thursday. Large scale ascent and increasing lift will pull a
dryline back west across the region Thursday evening. There is still
a chance we may see a few storms form on the dryline Thursday night,
but models continue to be hesitant in showing too much QPF. A
strong LLJ will develop amid steepening lapse rates so any storms
that do develop may become severe with large hail and damaging
winds.

The upper trough will take a similar path to today`s system and lift
into the Plains Friday into Saturday. Again we will see dry westerly
flow take over with more fire weather concerns entering the picture
Friday afternoon. Winds are expected to increase significantly
across the Guadalupe Mountains Friday so have issued a High Wind
Watch. Models had been differing early next week with respect to
another upper system developing to our west. The GFS has now come
back into better agreement with the ECMWF and both now show a strong
cold front moving through with widespread precip Sunday into
Monday. Will continue to monitor this time period as changes to
the forecast over the next few days are likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

It has already become windy today in the Guadalupe Mountains but
low RH is still lacking... it should fall below 15 percent this
afternoon so will leave the Red Flag warning in effect into this
evening. Marginal fire wx conditions are possible across SE NM on
Thursday. It will be warmer Thursday which should help it reach RH
below 15 percent... but 20ft wind may not reach needed criteria.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch in effect for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  87  63  83 /   0  10  40  10
Carlsbad                       50  89  53  80 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         61  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  55  94  57  85 /   0  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 50  80  50  69 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          48  86  51  76 /   0  10  30  10
Marfa                          42  84  43  76 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           57  91  62  84 /   0  10  40  10
Odessa                         58  91  62  84 /   0  10  30  10
Wink                           54  95  56  85 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

72/29
053
FXUS64 KMAF 271728
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1228 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with few clouds the next 24 hours. Gusty W/SW wind
this afternoon will drop off this evening and back around toward
the south overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

Upper level low pressure area across the western high plains will
slowly move northeast into the central plains today. Behind this
system dry westerly downslope flow will be in place with temperatures
expected to rise to slightly above normal values this afternoon
despite the passage of a Pacific front. In the meantime another
Pacific upper level low pressure area will move onshore and dig
into the southern Rockies by Thursday evening. East of this upper
low, a surface low will develop over the region in the southwest
flow aloft with low level thermal ridging pushing temperatures
well above normal Thursday afternoon. In addition the backing mid
level flow will draw gulf moisture northwestward into the Permian
Basin late Thursday and Thursday night along with mid level lift.
This could allow for thunderstorms to develop in the Permian Basin
and portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains mainly Thursday
night along a retreating dryline.

This upper low is forecast to lift from the southern Rockies into
the central Rockies Friday and onto the western Plains Saturday.
This should push the precipitation east of the forecast area
by Friday afternoon through Saturday night. Breezy to windy
conditions should develop Friday and Saturday with near to
slightly above normal temperatures as downslope flow and deep
mixing develop behind the surface system.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday through Tuesday. Backing mid level flow along with
large scale lift will draw low level moisture northwestward from
the Gulf. Thunderstorms will once again be possible across much of
the forecast area these days.

FIRE WEATHER...

Poor recovery areawide this morning will aid above normal
temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon.  These warmer, drier
conditions will persist over all of southeast New Mexico and west
Texas through the rest of the week.  Zonal flow aloft today will
provide southwest to west winds of 20 mph sustained and greater,
with higher gusts, to the Guadalupe Mountains from late this morning
until early this evening.  Considering RH/s will drop to around 10
percent this afternoon, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect for the
Guadalupes from 27/17Z to 28/03Z.  Wind speeds over the rest of the
forecast area will remain below 20 mph sustained, with few
exceptions.  Recovery tonight will be poor areawide.

The flow aloft will become more southwesterly Thursday with gusty
winds of 20 mph sustained or greater expected over the guadalupes
and SE NM Plains.  High temperatures will rise around 10 degrees
above normal, with dry air in place dropping afternoon RH/s to 5 to
10 percent.  Therefore, will issue a Fire Weather Watch for the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains from 28/17Z to 29/03Z, with the caveat
that critical fire weather conditions will begin over the SE NM
Plains by 28/19Z and after.  Further east, the dryline will move
into the eastern Permian Basin Thursday afternoon, keep minimum
afternoon RH/s above 15 percent in these areas and allow for a
slight chance of thunderstorms.  The dryline is expected to surge
westward Thursday night and bring good recovery perhaps as far west
as the northwest Permian Basin to the Stockton Plateau.  However,
recovery will be poor from the SE NM Plains, south through the Big
Bend.  There will be a chance of thunderstorms over the locations
east of a Carlsbad to to Pecos to Big Bend line Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  55  89  62 /   0   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       83  51  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         91  60  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  86  56  92  60 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 74  53  79  51 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          79  50  86  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          78  42  83  46 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           84  56  90  62 /   0   0  10  40
Odessa                         84  57  90  62 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           87  53  92  58 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
727
FXUS64 KMAF 271109
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty southwest to west winds will prevail at all area terminals
today, but conditions will be VFR throughout the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

Upper level low pressure area across the western high plains will
slowly move northeast into the central plains today. Behind this
system dry westerly downslope flow will be in place with temperatures
expected to rise to slightly above normal values this afternoon
despite the passage of a Pacific front. In the meantime another
Pacific upper level low pressure area will move onshore and dig
into the southern Rockies by Thursday evening. East of this upper
low, a surface low will develop over the region in the southwest
flow aloft with low level thermal ridging pushing temperatures
well above normal Thursday afternoon. In addition the backing mid
level flow will draw gulf moisture northwestward into the Permian
Basin late Thursday and Thursday night along with mid level lift.
This could allow for thunderstorms to develop in the Permian Basin
and portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains mainly Thursday
night along a retreating dryline.

This upper low is forecast to lift from the southern Rockies into
the central Rockies Friday and onto the western Plains Saturday.
This should push the precipitation east of the forecast area
by Friday afternoon through Saturday night. Breezy to windy
conditions should develop Friday and Saturday with near to
slightly above normal temperatures as downslope flow and deep
mixing develop behind the surface system.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday through Tuesday. Backing mid level flow along with
large scale lift will draw low level moisture northwestward from
the Gulf. Thunderstorms will once again be possible across much of
the forecast area these days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Poor recovery areawide this morning will aid above normal
temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon.  These warmer, drier
conditions will persist over all of southeast New Mexico and west
Texas through the rest of the week.  Zonal flow aloft today will
provide southwest to west winds of 20 mph sustained and greater,
with higher gusts, to the Guadalupe Mountains from late this morning
until early this evening.  Considering RH/s will drop to around 10
percent this afternoon, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect for the
Guadalupes from 27/17Z to 28/03Z.  Wind speeds over the rest of the
forecast area will remain below 20 mph sustained, with few
exceptions.  Recovery tonight will be poor areawide.

The flow aloft will become more southwesterly Thursday with gusty
winds of 20 mph sustained or greater expected over the guadalupes
and SE NM Plains.  High temperatures will rise around 10 degrees
above normal, with dry air in place dropping afternoon RH/s to 5 to
10 percent.  Therefore, will issue a Fire Weather Watch for the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains from 28/17Z to 29/03Z, with the caveat
that critical fire weather conditions will begin over the SE NM
Plains by 28/19Z and after.  Further east, the dryline will move
into the eastern Permian Basin Thursday afternoon, keep minimum
afternoon RH/s above 15 percent in these areas and allow for a
slight chance of thunderstorms.  The dryline is expected to surge
westward Thursday night and bring good recovery perhaps as far west
as the northwest Permian Basin to the Stockton Plateau.  However,
recovery will be poor from the SE NM Plains, south through the Big
Bend.  There will be a chance of thunderstorms over the locations
east of a Carlsbad to to Pecos to Big Bend line Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  55  89  62 /   0   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       83  51  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         91  60  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  86  56  92  60 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 74  53  79  51 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          79  50  86  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          78  42  83  46 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           84  56  90  62 /   0   0  10  40
Odessa                         84  57  90  62 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           87  53  92  58 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/12
958
FXUS64 KMAF 270815
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
315 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area across the western high plains will
slowly move northeast into the central plains today. Behind this
system dry westerly downslope flow will be in place with temperatures
expected to rise to slightly above normal values this afternoon
despite the passage of a Pacific front. In the meantime another
Pacific upper level low pressure area will move onshore and dig
into the southern Rockies by Thursday evening. East of this upper
low, a surface low will develop over the region in the southwest
flow aloft with low level thermal ridging pushing temperatures
well above normal Thursday afternoon. In addition the backing mid
level flow will draw gulf moisture northwestward into the Permian
Basin late Thursday and Thursday night along with mid level lift.
This could allow for thunderstorms to develop in the Permian Basin
and portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains mainly Thursday
night along a retreating dryline.

This upper low is forecast to lift from the southern Rockies into
the central Rockies Friday and onto the western Plains Saturday.
This should push the precipitation east of the forecast area
by Friday afternoon through Saturday night. Breezy to windy
conditions should develop Friday and Saturday with near to
slightly above normal temperatures as downslope flow and deep
mixing develop behind the surface system.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday through Tuesday. Backing mid level flow along with
large scale lift will draw low level moisture northwestward from
the Gulf. Thunderstorms will once again be possible across much of
the forecast area these days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Poor recovery areawide this morning will aid above normal
temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon.  These warmer, drier
conditions will persist over all of southeast New Mexico and west
Texas through the rest of the week.  Zonal flow aloft today will
provide southwest to west winds of 20 mph sustained and greater,
with higher gusts, to the Guadalupe Mountains from late this morning
until early this evening.  Considering RH/s will drop to around 10
percent this afternoon, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect for the
Guadalupes from 27/17Z to 28/03Z.  Wind speeds over the rest of the
forecast area will remain below 20 mph sustained, with few
exceptions.  Recovery tonight will be poor areawide.

The flow aloft will become more southwesterly Thursday with gusty
winds of 20 mph sustained or greater expected over the guadalupes
and SE NM Plains.  High temperatures will rise around 10 degrees
above normal, with dry air in place dropping afternoon RH/s to 5 to
10 percent.  Therefore, will issue a Fire Weather Watch for the
Guadalupes and SE NM Plains from 28/17Z to 29/03Z, with the caveat
that critical fire weather conditions will begin over the SE NM
Plains by 28/19Z and after.  Further east, the dryline will move
into the eastern Permian Basin Thursday afternoon, keep minimum
afternoon RH/s above 15 percent in these areas and allow for a
slight chance of thunderstorms.  The dryline is expected to surge
westward Thursday night and bring good recovery perhaps as far west
as the northwest Permian Basin to the Stockton Plateau.  However,
recovery will be poor from the SE NM Plains, south through the Big
Bend.  There will be a chance of thunderstorms over the locations
east of a Carlsbad to to Pecos to Big Bend line Thursday night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     81  55  89  62 /   0   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       83  51  88  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         91  60  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  86  56  92  60 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 74  53  79  51 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          79  50  86  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          78  42  83  46 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           84  56  90  62 /   0   0  10  40
Odessa                         84  57  90  62 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           87  53  92  58 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/12
489
FXUS64 KMAF 270451
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1151 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide through today.  West to
southwest winds will become gusty by late this morning, but will
diminish around 28/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  81  54  88 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       49  83  50  88 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         58  91  60  93 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  54  86  55  92 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  79 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          48  79  49  85 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          40  78  40  83 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  56  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         54  84  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           51  87  53  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
978
FXUS64 KMAF 270330
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1030 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Forecast updated for the expiration of the Red Flag Warning, the
expiration of the High Wind Warning for the Davis Mountains, and
the cancellation of the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Wind speeds have decreased significantly this evening across much of
the area, and given the diminished gusts, have allowed the High
Wind Warning for the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains to
expire. Have also canceled the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
Mountains, as latest observations indicate gusts of around
35-40KT, below warning criteria. Gusts are expected to continue
to decrease overnight. The decrease in wind speeds as well as
cooling temperatures have also alleviated critical fire weather
conditions, and thus the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to
expire. Other forecast variables look to be on track this evening,
so no other updates to the forecast were warranted. Updated
products will be out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 832 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...

Quick update for the expiration of the Wind Advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Winds have largely dropped below Advisory criteria across the
plains after sunset, with speeds expected to continue to gradually
decrease through the evening hours. Thus, have allowed the Wind
Advisory to expire. Updated products will be out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty west winds will
decouple after sunset, then pick up again late morning Wednesday,
although not near as strong. A few high clouds will be possible,
and convective temps too warm for a cu field.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

It has turned into a windy, warm afternoon as a dryline continues to
surge east of the region. The base of a large upper trough over CO
is currently brushing the northern half of the area. An area of lift
moving into the TX Panhandle is bringing a few clouds and virga to
the northern Permian Basin. This virga may help strong winds reach
the surface so don`t be surprised to see winds gust to 50 mph or
so under these showers. Strong mid level winds mixing down and
subsidence behind the area of lift is leading to very gusty
conditions across almost the entire region. Will leave the High
Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories as is as winds aren`t likely to
die down until after sunset. Critical fire weather also continues
as rh`s have dropped below 15 percent at most locations. See Fire
Wx discussion below.

The upper trough will only slowly move east across the Central
Plains through midweek. This will keep our area in west-northwest
flow aloft bringing slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday. A cold
front will move south across the Panhandle Wednesday night, but
likely not make it much past Lubbuck. Meanwhile, another upper
trough will dig near the Four Corners Thursday and transition our flow
aloft to the southwest. Thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern half of the area Thursday evening and overnight along and
east of a retreating dryline. Some of these storms may even be
severe as lapse rates steepen and a strong LLJ kicks in. This
upper trough will slowly lift into the Plains through the end of
the week with dry, windy conditions returning Friday and Saturday.
Expect near normal temperatures late this week into the early part
of the weekend before more changes come our way next week.

Models have been fairly consistent in digging yet another upper
trough to our west over the weekend. This system has the potential
to bring below normal temperatures and even some rain the to region
by the beginning of next week. Stay tuned as changes to the forecast
are likely over the next several days leading into this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions will continue across southeast New
Mexico and much of West Texas until sunset when winds subside.
Strong lift from an upper level low is causing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop from northern Lea County
northward. Given very low dewpoints in the 20s, cloud bases will be
above 10K feet providing the potential for lightning starts and
gusty and erratic winds so this will have to be closely monitored
the next several hours.

The low causing the winds will move off to the east tonight, however
enough winds will remain over the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains that critical fire weather conditions are expected once
again on Wednesday where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Other
areas will see very low relative humidities but lower winds so there
may be an opportunity for prescribed burning. Another upper level
low will move across the area on Friday bringing the potential for
more critical fire weather conditions to southeast New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  81  54  88 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       49  83  50  88 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         58  91  60  93 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  54  86  55  92 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  79 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          48  79  49  85 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          40  78  40  83 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  56  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         54  84  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           51  87  53  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through
     Wednesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
623
FXUS64 KMAF 270132
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
832 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Quick update for the expiration of the Wind Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have largely dropped below Advisory criteria across the
plains after sunset, with speeds expected to continue to gradually
decrease through the evening hours. Thus, have allowed the Wind
Advisory to expire. Updated products will be out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty west winds will
decouple after sunset, then pick up again late morning Wednesday,
although not near as strong. A few high clouds will be possible,
and convective temps too warm for a cu field.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

It has turned into a windy, warm afternoon as a dryline continues to
surge east of the region. The base of a large upper trough over CO
is currently brushing the northern half of the area. An area of lift
moving into the TX Panhandle is bringing a few clouds and virga to
the northern Permian Basin. This virga may help strong winds reach
the surface so don`t be surprised to see winds gust to 50 mph or
so under these showers. Strong mid level winds mixing down and
subsidence behind the area of lift is leading to very gusty
conditions across almost the entire region. Will leave the High
Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories as is as winds aren`t likely to
die down until after sunset. Critical fire weather also continues
as rh`s have dropped below 15 percent at most locations. See Fire
Wx discussion below.

The upper trough will only slowly move east across the Central
Plains through midweek. This will keep our area in west-northwest
flow aloft bringing slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday. A cold
front will move south across the Panhandle Wednesday night, but
likely not make it much past Lubbuck. Meanwhile, another upper
trough will dig near the Four Corners Thursday and transition our flow
aloft to the southwest. Thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern half of the area Thursday evening and overnight along and
east of a retreating dryline. Some of these storms may even be
severe as lapse rates steepen and a strong LLJ kicks in. This
upper trough will slowly lift into the Plains through the end of
the week with dry, windy conditions returning Friday and Saturday.
Expect near normal temperatures late this week into the early part
of the weekend before more changes come our way next week.

Models have been fairly consistent in digging yet another upper
trough to our west over the weekend. This system has the potential
to bring below normal temperatures and even some rain the to region
by the beginning of next week. Stay tuned as changes to the forecast
are likely over the next several days leading into this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions will continue across southeast New
Mexico and much of West Texas until sunset when winds subside.
Strong lift from an upper level low is causing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop from northern Lea County
northward. Given very low dewpoints in the 20s, cloud bases will be
above 10K feet providing the potential for lightning starts and
gusty and erratic winds so this will have to be closely monitored
the next several hours.

The low causing the winds will move off to the east tonight, however
enough winds will remain over the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains that critical fire weather conditions are expected once
again on Wednesday where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Other
areas will see very low relative humidities but lower winds so there
may be an opportunity for prescribed burning. Another upper level
low will move across the area on Friday bringing the potential for
more critical fire weather conditions to southeast New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  81  54  88 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       49  83  50  88 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         58  91  60  93 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  54  86  55  92 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  79 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          48  79  49  85 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          40  78  40  83 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  56  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         54  84  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           51  87  53  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area.

     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
468
FXUS64 KMAF 262224
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
524 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty west winds will
decouple after sunset, then pick up again late morning Wednesday,
although not near as strong. A few high clouds will be possible,
and convective temps too warm for a cu field.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

It has turned into a windy, warm afternoon as a dryline continues to
surge east of the region. The base of a large upper trough over CO
is currently brushing the northern half of the area. An area of lift
moving into the TX Panhandle is bringing a few clouds and virga to
the northern Permian Basin. This virga may help strong winds reach
the surface so don`t be surprised to see winds gust to 50 mph or
so under these showers. Strong mid level winds mixing down and
subsidence behind the area of lift is leading to very gusty
conditions across almost the entire region. Will leave the High
Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories as is as winds aren`t likely to
die down until after sunset. Critical fire weather also continues
as rh`s have dropped below 15 percent at most locations. See Fire
Wx discussion below.

The upper trough will only slowly move east across the Central
Plains through midweek. This will keep our area in west-northwest
flow aloft bringing slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday. A cold
front will move south across the Panhandle Wednesday night, but
likely not make it much past Lubbuck. Meanwhile, another upper
trough will dig near the Four Corners Thursday and transition our flow
aloft to the southwest. Thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern half of the area Thursday evening and overnight along and
east of a retreating dryline. Some of these storms may even be
severe as lapse rates steepen and a strong LLJ kicks in. This
upper trough will slowly lift into the Plains through the end of
the week with dry, windy conditions returning Friday and Saturday.
Expect near normal temperatures late this week into the early part
of the weekend before more changes come our way next week.

Models have been fairly consistent in digging yet another upper
trough to our west over the weekend. This system has the potential
to bring below normal temperatures and even some rain the to region
by the beginning of next week. Stay tuned as changes to the forecast
are likely over the next several days leading into this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions will continue across southeast New
Mexico and much of West Texas until sunset when winds subside.
Strong lift from an upper level low is causing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop from northern Lea County
northward. Given very low dewpoints in the 20s, cloud bases will be
above 10K feet providing the potential for lightning starts and
gusty and erratic winds so this will have to be closely monitored
the next several hours.

The low causing the winds will move off to the east tonight, however
enough winds will remain over the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains that critical fire weather conditions are expected once
again on Wednesday where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Other
areas will see very low relative humidities but lower winds so there
may be an opportunity for prescribed burning. Another upper level
low will move across the area on Friday bringing the potential for
more critical fire weather conditions to southeast New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  81  54  88 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       49  83  50  88 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         58  91  60  93 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  54  86  55  92 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  79 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          48  79  49  85 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          40  78  40  83 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  56  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         54  84  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           51  87  53  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area.

&&

$$

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