Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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646
FXUS64 KMAF 291127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected for much of
the TAF period. An arctic cold front is forecast to plunge
southwest tonight after 04z Tuesday across the northern terminals
and through the southern terminals by 12z Tuesday. MVFR to IFR
ceilings will likely develop toward or shortly after 12z Tuesday.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2014/

..Winter Weather returns on Tuesday...

DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Monday...High clouds are streaming
across the CWA this early morning. This is helping to keep temps
up a bit this morning with Midland at a mild 41.

If you like mild weather then today will be the day as high temps
will be in the 50s and 60s. It will be dry with occasional
mid/high clouds.

Winter returns with a vengeance in time for the end of 2014. Highly
amplified flow in the Eastern Pacific/Western North America will
enable a shortwave to drop south out of Northwest Canada into the
US. This will drive an Arctic front south through the Southern
Plains. This front will move into the CWA late tonight/Tuesday
morning. At the same time a cutoff low will develop over So Cal.

The big question is what kind of precip...how much...and for how
long. As the Arctic airmass settles over the CWA Tuesday light
precip will develop. With the lack of significant jet dynamics
lift will come from isentropic upglide as mild air rides over the
cold airmass. NAM/ECMWF forecast soundings are indc an extended
period of light frozen precip...mainly in the form of freezing
rain/sleet starting Tue aftn and continuing thru Wednesday night
(New Years Eve). The precip could start as just rain Tue aftn
south and west of the Pecos River...but will turn to a wintry mix
across most of the CWA Tue night. The precip could remain all
liquid right along the Rio Grande...but even along the border with
Mexico there could be a wintry mix. There could be a little snow
mixed in in Southeast New Mexico where forecast soundings are a
bit colder. It looks like amounts will be light...but with
extended period of frozen precip and temps in the teens and 20s
driving could/will become very hazardous. Will issue a Special
Weather Statement this morning to highlight this.

The upper low will slowly move east by the end of the week. The
latest track is a little further south than previous model runs.
As of now...it looks like temps will be warmer during the day on
Thursday (New Years Day) and Friday leading to a chance of rain
as temps should be above freezing. The ECMWF is hinting at temps
dropping near or below freezing Thursday night north of the Trans
Pecos leading to a possible wintry mix again Thursday night.
Precip should end Friday night...and with colder air it could end
as a wintry mix.

As the upper low moves east a quasi-zonal flow develops over the
CWA. This will result in dry weather next weekend with cool
temperatures.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  26  27  21  /   0   0  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              61  29  29  23  /   0   0  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                55  27  29  24  /   0   0  40  40
DRYDEN TX                  61  36  44  35  /   0   0  30  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  27  35  25  /   0   0  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          52  24  27  17  /   0   0  20  30
HOBBS NM                   53  25  29  22  /   0   0  40  40
MARFA TX                   60  24  43  25  /   0   0  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  25  30  22  /   0   0  30  50
ODESSA TX                  59  26  31  22  /   0   0  30  50
WINK TX                    62  30  35  28  /   0   0  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/33

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