Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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994
FXUS64 KMAF 241121
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening but probabilities are too small to mention at this time.
Winds will remain generally light and will shift from the
northeast to the east and southeast during the day today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast.  Area radars show convection
has diminished across most of the FA, w/only a few -SHRA in NW Eddy
County.  MRMS estimates indicate that the Wrn Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin fared best w/regards to rainfall last night,
w/widespread estimates over 1", and totals as high as 5-6".  Latest
sfc analysis shows the old cold front down in the Big Bend Area/Lwr
Trans Pecos, but a secondary surge of cold air is currently moving
thru Southeast New Mexico, the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and Permian
Basin.  W/these two fronts in the area, as well as residual
boundaries from yesterday`s activity, at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms will persist throughout the day across most of West
Texas and SE NM.  Buffer soundings suggest temps this afternoon will
be blo normal north, abv normal south, although cloud cover,
convection, and antecedent soil moisture will all combine to
frustrate things.

Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast, but this is still forecast to build west as the Great Lakes
trough amplifies during the week.  Thicknesses will increase through
Friday, w/a corresponding ramp-up of temperatures to the upper 90s
most locations for the weekend.  Long-range models park the ridge
over the SW CONUS/Nrn Mexico by the end of the extended, w/chances
of rain after today slim-to-none.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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