Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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101
FXUS64 KMAF 192001
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
301 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonal broad SW flow is in place across W TX. A few embedded
shrtwv trof are evident in water vapor imagery, one lifting up thru
the BB region and another S of El Paso City. Best PoPs will remain
across the S, but convection could develop across the PB as
interface btwn cloud/insolation set up a low level thermal gradient
with ample mstr. Otherwise convection across the Lower Trans Pecos
continues to expand per cooling IR cloud tops and drifting NE. We
have accounted for this thru 06Z with high end chance/low end
likely PoPs, updates may be needed later to the lower PoPs before
06Z? Attention then shifts to a cold front that will arrive btwn
12Z-15Z across the N and 15Z-18Z across central PB Sat. SB LI`s
less than -4 do congregate around the front as do surface dwpnts
of 65-68. Models are trending a little wetter than 06Z runs and
QPF seems to focus on parts of SE NM/W PB 21Z Sat-06Z Sun. Precip
potential will fade into early Sun AM. Models still want to
generate QPF in Sun PM in moist cool se low level flow. There is
only a minor weakness in 5h heights and as such we will tend to
down play PoPs most areas. A persistent mid level trof in said SW
flow aloft will edge E INVOF wrn Hill Country, but Mon it will get
caught up in stronger sly flow W of broad anticyclone and move
N-NW. The consensus is that Monday will be wet across the Lower
Trans Pecos and possibly as far N as the central PB. The precip
gradient will probably be tight and areas just to the E are much
more favored, noting NAM12 is outlier with QPF farther w. Most
areas will be warmer drier Tue/Wed with a front probable on Thur
as upper low passes to the N. Tempertures will most be below
normal thru the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  67  83 /  30  50  20  20
Carlsbad                       68  89  66  87 /  10  40  40  30
Dryden                         72  87  72  84 /  50  40  30  30
Fort Stockton                  67  87  64  82 /  50  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 65  82  59  78 /  10  40  30  40
Hobbs                          64  83  61  81 /  10  40  20  20
Marfa                          59  83  59  79 /  40  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           70  88  66  84 /  20  40  20  20
Odessa                         71  87  67  84 /  20  40  20  20
Wink                           69  89  67  87 /  10  40  50  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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