Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 251725

1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014

See 18Z aviation discussion below.


An upper low will bring scattered showers and TS to the area with
the best chances being at HOB and CNM. Chance of TS is too low at
other TAF sites to put in the forecast at this time and will
instead amend as needed. VFR conditions expected through the
period with light southeast winds.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2014/


Unfortunately, more heavy rain fell across parts of the area
overnight. The area near Red Bluff Reservoir received 3 to 4 inches
of rain while locations between Hobbs and Gail saw 1 to 3 inches.
The Delaware and Pecos Rivers north of Red Bluff have already
shown a rise this morning. This water will head into Red Bluff
and likely keep lake and river levels high through the week.

A weak upper low continues to affect the area by bringing a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Similar to yesterday, convection is
expected to form just north of the Permian Basin and move south into
the area during the afternoon. The best chance for storms will be
across northwest portions of the Permian Basin. Heavy rain fell there
yesterday and more is possible today so localized flash flooding
will be a threat. The upper low will remain over the area Friday
while a mid level disturbance moves west across south Texas. This
will increase chances for storms over the lower Trans Pecos. A deep
trough to our west will finally kick the upper low northeast by
Saturday. Weak ridging will then develop over the area keeping rain
chances low and warming temps to near normal this weekend.

The western trough then lifts into the Northern Plains early next
week while transitioning our flow aloft to southwest. This looks
like a very springlike pattern as a dryline sets up across the area.
Models begin to diverge with the overall upper pattern mid to late
week so didn`t make many changes to the extended.

Pecos River Flood Update...

The Red Bluff Reservoir spillway discharge decreased Wednesday, but
has began to increase once again this morning due to the heavy
rain overnight. A large increase of water into Red Bluff is not
expected. The Pecos River near Orla crested yesterday and will
continue to fall, however this fall may slow due to last nights
heavy rain. River levels at Pecos are holding steady this morning,
but will slowly begin to rise today. The river will crest tonight
or Friday at Pecos and then slowly fall into the weekend. This
crest appears to be very similar to the one that affected the city
of Pecos Monday.






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