Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170042
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
742 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.UPDATE...Zones have been updated to include Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 226 (expires at 3 am CDT Wednesday)...which covers the
Central and Eastern PB and the Low Rolling Plains. A Pacific Cold
front will intersect a very sharp dryline for the potential for
severe storms. The main threats will be large hail and damaging
winds.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 449 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Westerly flow will keep
the dryline at or east of KMAF, w/a few high clouds. Convective
temps will be too warm for cu development Wed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An active weather pattern is expected much of the week with severe
weather, strong winds, fire weather, and even a strong cold front
(for mid May) likely to affect the area. An upper trough
currently to our west will lift northeast into the Plains
overnight. This system has forced the dryline well east into the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. Dry
and windy conditions have developed behind the boundary with high
winds currently being observed in the Guadalupe Mountains. Even
stronger winds are expected this evening behind a Pacific cold
front so have issued a Wind Advisory for western portions of the
area. Red Flag conditions are also present in many locations
behind the dryline. Please see the fire wx discussion below for
more information.

Switching gears, the atmosphere remains capped east of the dryline
which is suppressing any thunderstorm activity at this time. Height
falls associated with the upper trough will act to pull the dryline
back west early this evening to about the central Permian Basin.
At the same time a Pacific cold front will quickly move east
across the area and collide with the dryline. Thunderstorms will
develop along the combined boundary as large scale lift and
cooling aloft arrives. These storms will likely become severe
given favorable deep layer shear, instability, and moisture.
Initially, large hail and maybe even an isolated tornado will be
possible before storm mode quickly transitions to linear with
damaging winds then being the main threat. These storms will shift
east into the Big Country overnight with cooler, drier conditions
behind the cold front.

Temperatures fall to near normal Wednesday with windy conditions
continuing across the Guadalupe Mountains. Another upper trough will
develop over the Rockies late Thursday and become more elongated
late this week to our west. Height falls associated with this
system will again pull the dryline back west late Thursday. Models
disagree with the position of the trough and how far west the
dryline will go. Indications are however, that severe
thunderstorms will develop once again on a retreating dryline
somewhere over the Permian Basin Thursday night. Once the trough
passes, a strong cold front will push across the area Saturday
morning. A few showers and storms will be possible along the front
as the boundary plows into a moist airmass. Much cooler and drier
conditions are expected behind the front this weekend with highs
below normal for a change!

Temperatures warm early next week to near normal before another cold
front makes a run at the area midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are being observed across the western two-
thirds of the region this afternoon as the dryline as moved east.
Rh`s have fallen into the single digits and teens while southwest
winds are around 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. A few
thunderstorms are not out of the question across SE NM this
afternoon and evening. These storms may produce dry lightning and
very gusty winds. Low rh`s will spread across the area again
Wednesday and Thursday, but strong winds will mostly be confined
to the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  88  64  94 /  50   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       54  86  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  91  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  57  91  62  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  77  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  83  55  86 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  83  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  87  61  93 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         57  87  61  92 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           55  88  54  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Loving-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

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