Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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387
FXUS64 KMAF 290439
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1020 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light out of the west and southwest and will begin to
shift to the northeast around 06z Tuesday as a cold front comes into
the area.  There is a slight chance of fog/low ceilings developing,
especially for MAF, around 12z Monday.  The high clouds may inhibit
fog development so did not put in the TAFS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved into central Texas, and
earlier fog/stratus has burned off, leaving CAVU conditions over
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Sfc analysis shows a leeside
trough has developed on the Front Range, inducing SW flow this
afternoon, for a warmup of around 10F over yesterday`s temps.
Monday promises to be even warmer--just above normal--as flow aloft
quickly returns to SW as the next upper trough breaks out of British
Columbia and begins digging down the west coast.  Ahead of this
feature will be an Arctic ams originating in far NW Canada, w/models
bringing the cold front thru KMAF just after 00Z Tuesday.  Fropa in
the Guadalupes will likely reach high wind criteria, and we`ll
mention this in the HWO for now.

Low-lvl winds will begin veering after fropa, w/isentropic upglide
beginning over the NE zones sometime Tuesday morning.  The Western
Low Rolling Plains look to stay blo freezing throughout the day
Tuesday, w/forecast soundings suggesting freezing rain/drizzle,
spreading south overnight into Wednesday.  Moisture for this event
looks shallow, w/forecast soundings drying out above 750mb or so, so
no snow is expected.  Instead, soundings portray RA or FZRA,
transitioning over to IP at times, especially Wed/Wed night.  As is
typical, forecast soundings show the cold layer blo -6C right at
around 2500 feet...the transition zone betwixt freezing rain and
sleet.  What`s more, forecast soundings between models call for
different precip types, e.g., at 12Z Wednesday, the NAM calls for
sleet at KMAF, whereas the GFS is shallower w/the cold air, and
leaning more towards freezing rain.  For these reasons, confidence
is not high enough attm to specify one or the other, so we`ve
mentioned FRZA or IP Wed and Wed night most areas except the far
south, which should stay warm enough for rain.  Sfc flow veers back
to SE Thursday, pushing a weak warm front into the area, w/forecast
soundings suggesting a transition to rain sometime during the
afternoon.  The upper trough arrives Friday, w/models in pretty good
agreement placing it over SE NM by 00Z Saturday, w/the DGEX the only
outlier.  This will result in a chance of convection areawide
Friday, w/temps warm enough to rule out any wintry precip.  A
scouring west wind Friday afternoon will shunt all moisture and
precip east of the area, w/temps almost back to normal by
Sunday.

Of course, w/forecast soundings on the bubble between precip types,
everything remains very much in flux and subject to change.  Models
have underestimated cold snaps earlier this fall, so hopefully they
are are w/this one, as well, and New Year`s will see more IP than
FZRA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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