Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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177
FXUS64 KMAF 312309
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
509 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 18 hours or so, until
around 18Z Monday, when sfc winds veer to the west and afternoon
mixing increases winds significantly as an upper trough passes to
the north, throwing a bit of BLDU into the mix. Models generally
put highest winds over the NW (KCNM) and weakest SE (KFST). MOS
continues to downplay winds, whereas forecast afternoon mixing
heights suggest a stronger scenario. For starters, we`ve gone
slightly abv guidance numbers. BLDU will be the complicating
factor once winds get going, but we`ll begin w/IFR vsbys possible
SE NM, and MVFR elsewhere. Another factor in play will be high
clouds, which could inhibit mixing somewhat. Stay tunes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 108 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Aloft there is flat zonal flow from CA to TX with strong westerly
winds moving across the region.  Later today a strong upper trough
will move onshore the West Coast and quickly swing into the area
tomorrow.  Additional lobes of the trough will move across NM/TX
Tuesday and Wednesday.  Another trough dives down across the Rockies
late Friday as the active upper pattern continues.

Have another warm and windy day under way across the region.
GDP was reporting gusts to near 80 mph last night before it got
knocked out at 06z.  High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain
in place.  The High Wind Warning for the Guadalupes runs through
Tuesday and additional Wind Advisories are expected for Monday.
Still looks like tomorrow will be the windiest day of the event.
250mb jet begins to move into the area today and increases to 140
to 150kts before it passes through on Tuesday.

The wind was already westerly across the area today with
temperatures quickly climbing into the 70s.  Should have another
warm day tomorrow with highs in the 70s before a Pacific front blows
through late in the day with a gusty west wind in its wake.  By
Monday evening wind speeds will begin to drop off.  A stronger front
backs in from the NE Tuesday with highs in the 50s.  Temps stay
below normal most of the week but recover by the weekend.

There is actually a low chance of showers moving into the western
edge of Eddy Co. Monday so will leave their mention in the forecast
but expect very little measurable precip with them.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are developing across much of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon as rh/s plunge to less than 15 percent
with winds increasing to at or above 20 mph in strong zonal downslope flow.
These critical conditions will continue the rest of this afternoon. Conditions
should improve by sunset with onset of nocturnal cooling and moistening as
boundary layer winds quickly decouple. Rh recovery overnight is expected to
be mainly poor to fair.

More critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of the
forecast area during the day Monday as strong westerly winds aloft continue
as a strong upper level storm system tracks across the southern Rockies to
eastern New Mexico by late afternoon. Deep mixing of strong winds aloft
should easily allow 20 foot winds to exceed 20 mph across all of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico. Mitigating factors include the 850 millibar temperature
ridge rapidly pushing eastward toward central Texas during the afternoon as
a weak cold front pushes very quickly east. Because of the expected quick
movement of the front, confidence is not high enough at this time that rh/s
can drop below 15 percent for 3 hours at some locations, especially across
southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains where cooling and moistening
will be enhanced by the approaching upper level low pressure area. At this
time the most likely areas to have several hours of critical fire weather
conditions are the lower Trans Pecos Region and Big Bend Region of west Texas
where the warmer air will reside for the longest period of time ahead of the
front. Because of the aforementioned concerns will keep the Fire Weather Watch
going for much of west Texas and let the midnight shift make the final call
with the most up to date guidance on any possible upgrades and or cancellations
of the watch.

Conditions should improve significantly on Tuesday behind the upper low with
much cooler temperatures expected and decreasing wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  73  35  53 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  63  35  51 /   0  10   0   0
Dryden                         45  79  43  63 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  74  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  51  28  41 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          36  60  30  49 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          28  69  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  70  36  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  70  35  54 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           37  68  36  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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