Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 251721

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

See 18Z aviation discussion below.


VFR conditions and light southeast wind this TAF period. Isolated
TS will develop this afternoon mainly near MAF and FST, however
coverage will not be great enough to place TS in any FM groups at
this time and will handle with AMD as needed.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

Intense heating along a Weak surface boundary near the Pecos
River will be the focus for potential thunderstorm development
this afternoon and this evening. Looking for the best chance
across the eastern Permian Basin where low level convergence and
moisture will be maximized. More isolated activity is expected
across the southeast New Mexico Plains and the mountains due
to a marginally unstable upslope flow regime. Expecting activity
to die this evening with loss of heating.

Beyond today looking for above normal temperatures and mainly
quiet weather Thursday and Friday as an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds over the area. Did mention isolated thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon and evening in portions of the
mountains and or southeast New Mexico Plains these days in upslope

For Friday and Saturday another weak boundary could trigger
isolated thunderstorms across the northern Permian Basin and
the mountains. Any Activity does not look to be very expansive
with an upper ridge in the vicinity. Temperatures should remain
well above normal these days.

For Sunday and next Monday north to northeasterly flow aloft
is expected to prevail around the upper ridge that is forecast
to reside in the Rockies and western high plains. Another weak
surface boundary and upslope flow could generate some isolated
convection in portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico
but will not mention this far out. Will continue to monitor. High
temperatures are expected to cool a few degrees but still remain
above normal these days.





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