Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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543
FXUS64 KMAF 082045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast, as a dry forecast under
upper level ridging continues.  CAA overnight from yesterday`s cold
front has resulted in a slow start to warming this afternoon,
w/highs expected to top out several degrees below normal.  However,
as the west coast ridge continues building in, a gradual warm-up is
still on tap thru Thursday, when it`ll feel more like early April
than February.  Late Thursday afternoon, the next (dry) cold front
is due into the area, w/models coming in w/post-frontal temps a
little cooler than in the past few runs.  However, temps will still
stay above normal.  A secondary (dry) front is advertized for Monday
to round out the extended.

Again, no rain thru the extended, w/the latest ECMWF coming in bone
dry again.  Critical fire wx concerns remain minimal, as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  67  32  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  68  27  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         37  72  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  33  70  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  59  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          25  65  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          22  63  25  67 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  68  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  66  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           23  69  31  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44
931
FXUS64 KMAF 081711
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1111 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with will prevail the next 24 hours with light
winds gradually veering to the southwest through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Will start the day with an upper ridge over the western half of the
country with a large trough centered over the Great Lakes.  The
ridge will slowly slide east as the trough moves toward the
Atlantic.  This will result in mild wx for the region into next
week.

After another unseasonably warm day yesterday looking for a
noticeably cooler day today in post frontal conditions.  highs today
should be in the 50s as a north wind and cold air advection
continues through the day.  Wind should become westerly/downslope
Tuesday as temps quickly recover into the 60s.  Warming temps
continue through the week as highs in the 70s return Wednesday and
hang around through next weekend.

Should have lots of high clouds today but forecast will remain dry.
Gusty NE wind at GDP should decrease throughout the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     29  68  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       25  66  26  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         33  70  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  69  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  59  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          26  64  30  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          19  63  21  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           29  66  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         28  65  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           26  67  27  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
399
FXUS64 KMAF 081128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
528 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected
at all terminals with light winds and mostly clear skies in place.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Will start the day with an upper ridge over the western half of the
country with a large trough centered over the Great Lakes.  The
ridge will slowly slide east as the trough moves toward the
Atlantic.  This will result in mild wx for the region into next
week.

After another unseasonably warm day yesterday looking for a
noticeably cooler day today in post frontal conditions.  highs today
should be in the 50s as a north wind and cold air advection
continues through the day.  Wind should become westerly/downslope
Tuesday as temps quickly recover into the 60s.  Warming temps
continue through the week as highs in the 70s return Wednesday and
hang around through next weekend.

Should have lots of high clouds today but forecast will remain dry.
Gusty NE wind at GDP should decrease throughout the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  29  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  25  66  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  33  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  34  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  33  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          54  19  63  21 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  29  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         56  28  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           57  26  67  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
504
FXUS64 KMAF 080939
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
339 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Will start the day with an upper ridge over the western half of the
country with a large trough centered over the Great Lakes.  The
ridge will slowly slide east as the trough moves toward the
Atlantic.  This will result in mild wx for the region into next
week.

After another unseasonably warm day yesterday looking for a
noticeably cooler day today in post frontal conditions.  highs today
should be in the 50s as a north wind and cold air advection
continues through the day.  Wind should become westerly/downslope
Tuesday as temps quickly recover into the 60s.  Warming temps
continue through the week as highs in the 70s return Wednesday and
hang around through next weekend.

Should have lots of high clouds today but forecast will remain dry.
Gusty NE wind at GDP should decrease throughout the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  29  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  25  66  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  33  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  34  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  33  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  26  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          54  19  63  21 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  29  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         56  28  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           57  26  67  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
893
FXUS64 KMAF 080446
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1046 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  At 18Z, sfc analysis
showed fropa about an hour away from KMAF, w/afternoon temps most
locations at or above normal.  Over the past few days, models have
been pretty consistent on the timing of the front, but lagging by a
few hours before CAA really gets going.  Nevertheless, a hard freeze
looks likely overnight, especially after post-frontal gradients
relax under mostly clear skies.  Monday, temps should top out below
normal under light northerly flow, before winds back around to the
southwest/west and bring temps back above-normal Tuesday as the west
coast ridge moves further inland.  Temps are then scheduled to
continue climbing thru Thursday afternoon, feeling more like April
than February as temps most locations climb to the mid-upper 70s.
Unfortunately, another front arrives Thursday evening, w/models
putting fropa at KMAF at around 00Z Friday.  This will take temps
down a notch thru the weekend, but most areas should reach 70F or
better each afternoon.

Otherwise, rain remains elusive thru the extended, w/the latest
ECMWF bone dry, among others.  However, the ridge will still make
for some fairly tame wind fields, putting to rest any critical fire
wx concerns for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     29  54  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       29  55  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         38  61  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  33  54  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 30  50  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          25  54  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          24  54  18  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  56  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           31  57  27  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
297
FXUS64 KMAF 072319
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
519 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  At 18Z, sfc analysis
showed fropa about an hour away from KMAF, w/afternoon temps most
locations at or above normal.  Over the past few days, models have
been pretty consistent on the timing of the front, but lagging by a
few hours before CAA really gets going.  Nevertheless, a hard freeze
looks likely overnight, especially after post-frontal gradients
relax under mostly clear skies.  Monday, temps should top out below
normal under light northerly flow, before winds back around to the
southwest/west and bring temps back above-normal Tuesday as the west
coast ridge moves further inland.  Temps are then scheduled to
continue climbing thru Thursday afternoon, feeling more like April
than February as temps most locations climb to the mid-upper 70s.
Unfortunately, another front arrives Thursday evening, w/models
putting fropa at KMAF at around 00Z Friday.  This will take temps
down a notch thru the weekend, but most areas should reach 70F or
better each afternoon.

Otherwise, rain remains elusive thru the extended, w/the latest
ECMWF bone dry, among others.  However, the ridge will still make
for some fairly tame wind fields, putting to rest any critical fire
wx concerns for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     26  54  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       23  55  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  61  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  54  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  50  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          22  54  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          21  54  18  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         27  56  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           25  57  27  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
727
FXUS64 KMAF 072045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  At 18Z, sfc analysis
showed fropa about an hour away from KMAF, w/afternoon temps most
locations at or above normal.  Over the past few days, models have
been pretty consistent on the timing of the front, but lagging by a
few hours before CAA really gets going.  Nevertheless, a hard freeze
looks likely overnight, especially after post-frontal gradients
relax under mostly clear skies.  Monday, temps should top out below
normal under light northerly flow, before winds back around to the
southwest/west and bring temps back above-normal Tuesday as the west
coast ridge moves further inland.  Temps are then scheduled to
continue climbing thru Thursday afternoon, feeling more like April
than February as temps most locations climb to the mid-upper 70s.
Unfortunately, another front arrives Thursday evening, w/models
putting fropa at KMAF at around 00Z Friday.  This will take temps
down a notch thru the weekend, but most areas should reach 70F or
better each afternoon.

Otherwise, rain remains elusive thru the extended, w/the latest
ECMWF bone dry, among others.  However, the ridge will still make
for some fairly tame wind fields, putting to rest any critical fire
wx concerns for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     26  54  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       23  55  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  61  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  54  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  50  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          22  54  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          21  54  18  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         27  56  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           25  57  27  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44
521
FXUS64 KMAF 071748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1148 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak cold front is currently moving through the area, and should
be south of FST within the first hour or two of the forecast
period. Winds have shifted to the NW and increased to around
12-15KT with the front passage, but will diminish and further veer
to the northeast by late this afternoon/early this evening from
north to south. Light winds are expected thereafter, with VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough moving down across the Central Plains states today as a
strong ridge remains over the West Coast.  The ridge will build east
the next few days and dominate the wx pattern resulting in mild and
warming wx for the area.  It will also result in little to no chance
of precipitation for the coming week.

A weak front will move through today with the wind swinging around
to the north but actually expect a warm day with highs in the 60s as
850 temps should be around 9C/49F.  The colder air looks to lag the
wind shift as it will be cooler on Monday with highs in the 50s.  By
Tuesday the wind comes around to the W/SW with temps rebounding back
into the 60s.  Normal highs for this time of year in the central CWA
are 60.  As the ridge moves overhead readings will climb into the
70s and remain warm through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  57  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       27  55  24  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         36  60  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  31  55  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 28  52  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          24  53  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          23  55  19  60 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           26  55  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         26  55  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  56  24  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
316
FXUS64 KMAF 071118
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
518 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Light westerly winds this morning will
veer to the N by early afternoon ahead of a weak cold front. The
front will arrive late afternoon/early evening, shifting winds to
the NE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough moving down across the Central Plains states today as a
strong ridge remains over the West Coast.  The ridge will build east
the next few days and dominate the wx pattern resulting in mild and
warming wx for the area.  It will also result in little to no chance
of precipitation for the coming week.

A weak front will move through today with the wind swinging around
to the north but actually expect a warm day with highs in the 60s as
850 temps should be around 9C/49F.  The colder air looks to lag the
wind shift as it will be cooler on Monday with highs in the 50s.  By
Tuesday the wind comes around to the W/SW with temps rebounding back
into the 60s.  Normal highs for this time of year in the central CWA
are 60.  As the ridge moves overhead readings will climb into the
70s and remain warm through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  25  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  27  55  24 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  36  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  31  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  28  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  24  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          67  23  55  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  26  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         63  26  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           66  27  56  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
093
FXUS64 KMAF 070939
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
339 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough moving down across the Central Plains states today as a
strong ridge remains over the West Coast.  The ridge will build east
the next few days and dominate the wx pattern resulting in mild and
warming wx for the area.  It will also result in little to no chance
of precipitation for the coming week.

A weak front will move through today with the wind swinging around
to the north but actually expect a warm day with highs in the 60s as
850 temps should be around 9C/49F.  The colder air looks to lag the
wind shift as it will be cooler on Monday with highs in the 50s.  By
Tuesday the wind comes around to the W/SW with temps rebounding back
into the 60s.  Normal highs for this time of year in the central CWA
are 60.  As the ridge moves overhead readings will climb into the
70s and remain warm through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  25  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  27  55  24 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  36  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  31  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  28  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  24  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          67  23  55  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  26  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         63  26  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           66  27  56  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
523
FXUS64 KMAF 070435
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1035 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions continue through the period. A cold front will
begin to affect the terminals at the end of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  31  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       55  28  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  33  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  62  34  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  32  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          58  27  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  20  66  22 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  26  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  31  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  28  65  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
633
FXUS64 KMAF 062301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to continue with light winds and clear skies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1256 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, on the eastern side of a broad, upper-lvl ridge off the west
coast.  To the north, a trough is traversing the U.S./Canadian
border, and will send a cold front thru the region Sunday.  Timing
of the front, forecast soundings, and temp progs suggest temps
climbing to just above normal Sunday afternoon before the front
takes them back below normal Monday.  However, beginning Tuesday,
the west coast ridge begins building inland, and will send temps
back abv normal.  Temps then should peak around Thursday, feeling
more like early April than early February as temps most locations
climb into the mid-70s.  A weak cold front Thursday night will take
temps down a notch into the weekend, but not by much.

It almost goes w/out saying that, with this pattern, a chance of
rain is slim to none, and Slim just left.  However, the ridge will
make for some fairly tame wind fields, putting to rest any critical
fire wx concerns for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  63  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       24  61  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         33  71  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  66  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  60  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  60  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          20  66  22  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           26  64  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  63  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  65  27  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29
099
FXUS64 KMAF 061856
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1256 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows NW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, on the eastern side of a broad, upper-lvl ridge off the west
coast.  To the north, a trough is traversing the U.S./Canadian
border, and will send a cold front thru the region Sunday.  Timing
of the front, forecast soundings, and temp progs suggest temps
climbing to just above normal Sunday afternoon before the front
takes them back below normal Monday.  However, beginning Tuesday,
the west coast ridge begins building inland, and will send temps
back abv normal.  Temps then should peak around Thursday, feeling
more like early April than early February as temps most locations
climb into the mid-70s.  A weak cold front Thursday night will take
temps down a notch into the weekend, but not by much.

It almost goes w/out saying that, with this pattern, a chance of
rain is slim to none, and Slim just left.  However, the ridge will
make for some fairly tame wind fields, putting to rest any critical
fire wx concerns for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  63  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       24  61  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         33  71  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  66  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  60  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  60  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          20  66  22  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           26  64  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  63  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  65  27  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44
985
FXUS64 KMAF 061747
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1147 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail the next 24 hours.
Light W/SW winds will continue, however a weak cold front is
expected to edge into northern portions of the area during the
last 6 hours of the forecast period, accompanied by a wind shift
to the NW. Have included mention at CNM and HOB for now, with
wind speeds expected to remain AOB 12KT for the duration.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This morning W TX/SE NM is on backside of upper trough and east side
of upper ridge centered off the CA coast.  Another trough moves down
across the Central Plains Sunday and keeps the ridge from building
in for a few days.  By Thursday the ridge axis will shift east
crossing the Rockies on Friday.  As it does another upper trough
will move ashore the West Coast reaching NM by next Sunday.

A cold front moved through last evening with NW wind that will
come back around to the SW during the day as a new leeside trough
develops.  Have clear skies this morning with a chilly start to
the day.  Another weak front moves through Sunday.  This will put
temperatures on a roller coaster bouncing above and below 60
degrees across the central CWA.  However by midweek highs should
climb into the 70s nearly areawide as the upper ridge builds in...
could see some 80s along the Rio Grande.  Lows mostly at or below
freezing the next few mornings.  At this time still no
precipitation in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  61  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       27  62  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         31  69  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  67  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  59  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  61  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          17  64  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  62  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  62  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           26  65  27  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
832
FXUS64 KMAF 061122
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected
at all terminals. Light west/southwest winds and clear skies through
the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This morning W TX/SE NM is on backside of upper trough and east side
of upper ridge centered off the CA coast.  Another trough moves down
across the Central Plains Sunday and keeps the ridge from building
in for a few days.  By Thursday the ridge axis will shift east
crossing the Rockies on Friday.  As it does another upper trough
will move ashore the West Coast reaching NM by next Sunday.

A cold front moved through last evening with NW wind that will
come back around to the SW during the day as a new leeside trough
develops.  Have clear skies this morning with a chilly start to
the day.  Another weak front moves through Sunday.  This will put
temperatures on a roller coaster bouncing above and below 60
degrees across the central CWA.  However by midweek highs should
climb into the 70s nearly areawide as the upper ridge builds in...
could see some 80s along the Rio Grande.  Lows mostly at or below
freezing the next few mornings.  At this time still no
precipitation in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  30  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       60  27  62  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  31  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  34  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 55  33  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  27  61  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  17  64  22 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  30  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  31  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           61  26  65  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
239
FXUS64 KMAF 060922
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
322 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
This morning W TX/SE NM is on backside of upper trough and east side
of upper ridge centered off the CA coast.  Another trough moves down
across the Central Plains Sunday and keeps the ridge from building
in for a few days.  By Thursday the ridge axis will shift east
crossing the Rockies on Friday.  As it does another upper trough
will move ashore the West Coast reaching NM by next Sunday.

A cold front moved through last evening with NW wind that will
come back around to the SW during the day as a new leeside trough
develops.  Have clear skies this morning with a chilly start to
the day.  Another weak front moves through Sunday.  This will put
temperatures on a roller coaster bouncing above and below 60
degrees across the central CWA.  However by midweek highs should
climb into the 70s nearly areawide as the upper ridge builds in...
could see some 80s along the Rio Grande.  Lows mostly at or below
freezing the next few mornings.  At this time still no
precipitation in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  30  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       60  27  62  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  31  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  34  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 55  33  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  27  61  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  17  64  22 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  30  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  31  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           61  26  65  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
561
FXUS64 KMAF 060431
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1031 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail with light winds and clear skies
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  29  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       54  21  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         59  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  58  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  27  51  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  21  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  13  55  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  29  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  24  60  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
120
FXUS64 KMAF 052332
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
532 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Gusty winds behind a cold front will quickly diminish over the
next 2 hours. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru the Panhandles at 18Z,
to be followed by a highly-amplified trough currently over the
western CONUS, which will dominate the weather in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico into next week.  At the sfc, obs show the cold
front associated w/the aforementioned trough due to fropa KMAF in the
next hours or so, halting afternoon temps in the mid to upper 50s
most locations.  Past model performance, temp progs, and forecast
soundings suggest post-frontal CAA will keep temps below-normal over
the next few days, reinforced by another cold front Sunday.  Thus,
w/little in the way of cloud cover expected over the next few days,
and little wind save for the cold fronts, we`ve opted to generally
stick to the cooler side of guidance in the short term, w/temps
finally climbing to abv-normal by Tuesday afternoon as the west
coast ridge begins encroaching further inland.  Temps increase even
more during the latter half of the week, peaking on Thursday before
a 3rd cold front moves in late Thursday afternoon, taking temps down
a notch of Friday.

Unfortunately, this pattern portends no rain for the region into the
extended.  However, the upshot is that the ridge will result in
fairly benign wind fields, alleviating any critical fire wx concerns
for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     29  55  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       21  59  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         29  61  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  30  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  51  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  55  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          13  55  19  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         29  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  60  24  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29
414
FXUS64 KMAF 052045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru the Panhandles at 18Z,
to be followed by a highly-amplified trough currently over the
western CONUS, which will dominate the weather in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico into next week.  At the sfc, obs show the cold
front associated w/the aforementioned trough due to fropa KMAF in the
next hours or so, halting afternoon temps in the mid to upper 50s
most locations.  Past model performance, temp progs, and forecast
soundings suggest post-frontal CAA will keep temps below-normal over
the next few days, reinforced by another cold front Sunday.  Thus,
w/little in the way of cloud cover expected over the next few days,
and little wind save for the cold fronts, we`ve opted to generally
stick to the cooler side of guidance in the short term, w/temps
finally climbing to abv-normal by Tuesday afternoon as the west
coast ridge begins encroaching further inland.  Temps increase even
more during the latter half of the week, peaking on Thursday before
a 3rd cold front moves in late Thursday afternoon, taking temps down
a notch of Friday.

Unfortunately, this pattern portends no rain for the region into the
extended.  However, the upshot is that the ridge will result in
fairly benign wind fields, alleviating any critical fire wx concerns
for the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     29  55  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       21  59  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         29  61  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  30  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  51  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  55  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          13  55  19  61 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         29  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  60  24  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
429
FXUS64 KMAF 051746
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1146 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 05/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail UFN. Surface pressure rises around
1 mb/hr across northeastern NM this morning continues to
support a southeastward-plunging mP front -- now extending from
just east of KLBB southwest through KPEQ -- then eastward into
northern Chihuahua. Winds behind this front will be gusty
initially, with wind gusts near 25 knots commonplace. These winds
will subside around sunset, and may become light and variable
at many TAF locations as a weak surface ridge centers over the
southern High Plains. By a few hours after sunrise, expect light
winds out of the southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  26  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  22  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         60  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  28  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  24  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  22  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  17  57  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  25  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  24  61  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
969
FXUS64 KMAF 051121
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
521 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Fairly light southerly winds this morning
will shift to the NW early/mid afternoon as a cold front moves
through the region. Wind speeds 12-15mph sustained with higher gusts
can be expected through the remainder of the afternoon then diminish
by late evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A strong shortwave trough diving across SE NM/W TX this afternoon
will push a weak front through the area later today.  After that the
region will stay on the eastern edge of a West Coast ridge through
the weekend as a long wave trough moves down across the Central
Plains.  The ridge will slowly shift east through the middle of
next week providing mild wx for the area.

Have a dry airmass in place this morning with dewpts mainly in the
teens that will result in a chilly start to the morning but should
warm quickly. Will start the day with a mainly south wind that will
shift around to the north and become brisk during the afternoon as a
front spreads across SE NM and the western CWA. However any cool
down will be brief as a surface low over the Panhandle brings the
wind back around to the S/SW on Saturday.  So expect another chilly
morning Saturday with near normal temps by afternoon under abundant
sunshine.  Temps will bounce around for a few days before warming
into the 70s later in the week as the upper ridge moves in.

Overall expect mostly sunny/clear skies the next few days.
The forecast will remain dry with no mention of precip through next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  26  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  22  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         60  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  28  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  24  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  22  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  17  57  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  25  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  24  61  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
100
FXUS64 KMAF 050913
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
313 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A strong shortwave trough diving across SE NM/W TX this afternoon
will push a weak front through the area later today.  After that the
region will stay on the eastern edge of a West Coast ridge through
the weekend as a long wave trough moves down across the Central
Plains.  The ridge will slowly shift east through the middle of
next week providing mild wx for the area.

Have a dry airmass in place this morning with dewpts mainly in the
teens that will result in a chilly start to the morning but should
warm quickly. Will start the day with a mainly south wind that will
shift around to the north and become brisk during the afternoon as a
front spreads across SE NM and the western CWA. However any cool
down will be brief as a surface low over the Panhandle brings the
wind back around to the S/SW on Saturday.  So expect another chilly
morning Saturday with near normal temps by afternoon under abundant
sunshine.  Temps will bounce around for a few days before warming
into the 70s later in the week as the upper ridge moves in.

Overall expect mostly sunny/clear skies the next few days.
The forecast will remain dry with no mention of precip through next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  26  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  22  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         60  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  57  28  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  24  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  22  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  17  57  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  25  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  24  61  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
549
FXUS64 KMAF 050441
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1041 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
Light winds overnight will increase Friday afternoon. VFR
conditions can be expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  30  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  20  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  30  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  30  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  26  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  21  52  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  16  55  17 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  28  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  30  54  26 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           54  25  59  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
832
FXUS64 KMAF 042253
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
453 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will remain the rule over the next 24 hrs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry with a mainly northwesterly flow aloft regime will be in
place through the next seven days. Several upper level systems
will pass by to the north of the forecast area with little warm
up ahead of these systems with not much cooling expected behind
them through next Monday. High temperatures will generally be at
or slightly below normal with below normal nighttime temperatures
in this dry regime. Some warming is indicated by next Tuesday
through Thursday with above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  57  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       20  55  23  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         30  59  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  30  59  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  52  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          16  55  17  57 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  54  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           25  59  24  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29
351
FXUS64 KMAF 041937
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Dry with a mainly northwesterly flow aloft regime will be in
place through the next seven days. Several upper level systems
will pass by to the north of the forecast area with little warm
up ahead of these systems with not much cooling expected behind
them through next Monday. High temperatures will generally be at
or slightly below normal with below normal nighttime temperatures
in this dry regime. Some warming is indicated by next Tuesday
through Thursday with above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  57  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       20  55  23  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         30  59  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  30  59  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  52  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          16  55  17  57 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  54  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           25  59  24  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/12
835
FXUS64 KMAF 041535
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few high clouds and
sfc flow veering to the west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An area of surface high pressure settling in over the region
tonight with light/variable winds and clear skies in place. By
sunrise, temperatures will drop into the teens for portions of
southeast NM and the higher terrain while other locations will
see lows in the low to mid 20s. Southerly winds return by this
afternoon, as surface high pressure shifts east, and high
temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
This warming trend will continue through the weekend with lows
near or below freezing most areas. A quick and weak front will
move through Friday night but a brief wind shift to the north is
all that can be expected. Another front is expected Sunday
night/Monday morning, briefly knocking temps down a few degrees
for Monday. Otherwise, dry conditions look to continue in the
extended with well above normal temperatures possible by middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  57  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       24  54  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  30  58  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 28  48  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          25  53  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          19  55  18  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           31  56  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  56  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  58  25  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/12/44
629
FXUS64 KMAF 041101
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light northwest winds becoming southeast around
00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An area of surface high pressure settling in over the region
tonight with light/variable winds and clear skies in place. By
sunrise, temperatures will drop into the teens for portions of
southeast NM and the higher terrain while other locations will
see lows in the low to mid 20s. Southerly winds return by this
afternoon, as surface high pressure shifts east, and high
temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
This warming trend will continue through the weekend with lows
near or below freezing most areas. A quick and weak front will
move through Friday night but a brief wind shift to the north is
all that can be expected. Another front is expected Sunday
night/Monday morning, briefly knocking temps down a few degrees
for Monday. Otherwise, dry conditions look to continue in the
extended with well above normal temperatures possible by middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  30  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  24  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  32  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  30  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  28  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  25  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  19  55  18 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  31  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  31  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           54  27  58  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
670
FXUS64 KMAF 040939
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
339 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An area of surface high pressure settling in over the region
tonight with light/variable winds and clear skies in place. By
sunrise, temperatures will drop into the teens for portions of
southeast NM and the higher terrain while other locations will
see lows in the low to mid 20s. Southerly winds return by this
afternoon, as surface high pressure shifts east, and high
temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
This warming trend will continue through the weekend with lows
near or below freezing most areas. A quick and weak front will
move through Friday night but a brief wind shift to the north is
all that can be expected. Another front is expected Sunday
night/Monday morning, briefly knocking temps down a few degrees
for Monday. Otherwise, dry conditions look to continue in the
extended with well above normal temperatures possible by middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  30  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  24  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  32  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  30  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  28  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          50  25  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  19  55  18 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  31  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  31  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           54  27  58  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/27
865
FXUS64 KMAF 040432
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1032 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with mostly light
winds.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 130 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry with a mainly northwesterly flow aloft regime will be in
place through the next seven days. Several upper level systems
will pass by to the north of the forecast area with little warm up
ahead of these systems with not much cooling expected behind them
through next Monday. High temperatures will generally be at or
slightly below normal with below normal nighttime temperatures in
this dry regime. Some warming is indicated by next Tuesday and
Wednesday with above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  54  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       18  51  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  57  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  25  53  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 20  43  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          19  49  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          11  49  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           23  53  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         24  51  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           20  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
532
FXUS64 KMAF 032246
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
446 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with light
winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 130 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry with a mainly northwesterly flow aloft regime will be in
place through the next seven days. Several upper level systems
will pass by to the north of the forecast area with little warm up
ahead of these systems with not much cooling expected behind them
through next Monday. High temperatures will generally be at or
slightly below normal with below normal nighttime temperatures in
this dry regime. Some warming is indicated by next Tuesday and
Wednesday with above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  54  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       18  51  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  57  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  25  53  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 20  43  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          19  49  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          11  49  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           23  53  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         24  51  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           20  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
187
FXUS64 KMAF 031930
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Dry with a mainly northwesterly flow aloft regime will be in
place through the next seven days. Several upper level systems
will pass by to the north of the forecast area with little warm up
ahead of these systems with not much cooling expected behind them
through next Monday. High temperatures will generally be at or
slightly below normal with below normal nighttime temperatures in
this dry regime. Some warming is indicated by next Tuesday and
Wednesday with above normal temperatures expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  54  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       18  51  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  57  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  25  53  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 20  43  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          19  49  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          11  49  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           23  53  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         24  51  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           20  52  28  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
290
FXUS64 KMAF 031737
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1137 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change from previous forecast. Widespread VFR and light
winds thru the night underneath dry NW flow aloft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 514 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Light north winds and VFR conditions this TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to sink south through the region tonight and
is currently located near the Pecos River Valley at the time of this
discussion. By sunrise, temperatures should drop into the 20s most
locations. Light northerly winds will hang around today with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.
The upper trough that has brought us several days of windy
conditions will finally shift east tomorrow followed by a brief
period of weak upper ridging through Thursday night. High
temperatures generally in the 50s can be expected Thursday and
Friday.

A fast-moving upper wave will move across the region Friday
followed by a weak front Friday night. Latest 00Z guidance have
all come in completely dry for west TX and southeast NM with
moisture lacking this far west. As a result, will go ahead and
remove any mention of precip Friday night/Saturday morning.
Light west winds return by Saturday afternoon and high
temperatures will warm into the 50s areawide. Another front is
expected Sunday however confidence in the timing of the front is
unclear. The GFS depicts an earlier arrival time and therefore is
the coolest with high temperatures. For now, think I`ll go halfway
between the GFS and ECMWF until a more obvious outcome is
revealed. Beyond Sunday, temperatures warm to above normal values
by Tuesday and Wednesday with dry conditions expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  25  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  20  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         56  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  21  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  21  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  15  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  24  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  25  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           49  22  56  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
681
FXUS64 KMAF 031114
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
514 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light north winds and VFR conditions this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to sink south through the region tonight and
is currently located near the Pecos River Valley at the time of this
discussion. By sunrise, temperatures should drop into the 20s most
locations. Light northerly winds will hang around today with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.
The upper trough that has brought us several days of windy
conditions will finally shift east tomorrow followed by a brief
period of weak upper ridging through Thursday night. High
temperatures generally in the 50s can be expected Thursday and
Friday.

A fast-moving upper wave will move across the region Friday
followed by a weak front Friday night. Latest 00Z guidance have
all come in completely dry for west TX and southeast NM with
moisture lacking this far west. As a result, will go ahead and
remove any mention of precip Friday night/Saturday morning.
Light west winds return by Saturday afternoon and high
temperatures will warm into the 50s areawide. Another front is
expected Sunday however confidence in the timing of the front is
unclear. The GFS depicts an earlier arrival time and therefore is
the coolest with high temperatures. For now, think I`ll go halfway
between the GFS and ECMWF until a more obvious outcome is
revealed. Beyond Sunday, temperatures warm to above normal values
by Tuesday and Wednesday with dry conditions expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  25  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  20  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         56  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  21  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  21  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  15  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  24  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  25  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           49  22  56  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
764
FXUS64 KMAF 030924
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
324 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to sink south through the region tonight and
is currently located near the Pecos River Valley at the time of this
discussion. By sunrise, temperatures should drop into the 20s most
locations. Light northerly winds will hang around today with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.
The upper trough that has brought us several days of windy
conditions will finally shift east tomorrow followed by a brief
period of weak upper ridging through Thursday night. High
temperatures generally in the 50s can be expected Thursday and
Friday.

A fast-moving upper wave will move across the region Friday
followed by a weak front Friday night. Latest 00Z guidance have
all come in completely dry for west TX and southeast NM with
moisture lacking this far west. As a result, will go ahead and
remove any mention of precip Friday night/Saturday morning.
Light west winds return by Saturday afternoon and high
temperatures will warm into the 50s areawide. Another front is
expected Sunday however confidence in the timing of the front is
unclear. The GFS depicts an earlier arrival time and therefore is
the coolest with high temperatures. For now, think I`ll go halfway
between the GFS and ECMWF until a more obvious outcome is
revealed. Beyond Sunday, temperatures warm to above normal values
by Tuesday and Wednesday with dry conditions expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  25  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  20  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         56  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  21  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  21  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  15  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           48  24  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         48  25  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           49  22  56  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/27
675
FXUS64 KMAF 030526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1126 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will ease south through all area terminals tonight and
Wednesday morning.  There may be a mid level cloud deck associated
with the frontal passage, but conditions will stay VFR pre and post
frontal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  47  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  45  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  48  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  38  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          23  43  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          18  45  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         25  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  48  22  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10
247
FXUS64 KMAF 030422
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1022 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will ease south through all area terminals tonight and
Wednesday morning.  There may be a mid level cloud deck associated
with the frontal passage, but conditions will stay VFR pre and post
frontal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  47  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  45  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  48  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  38  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          23  43  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          18  45  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         25  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  48  22  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
252
FXUS64 KMAF 022311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below, as is an update
to let the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory expire.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Wednesday.  A cold front
will drop south through the region tonight, but aside from
shifting surface winds to the north, little else is expected.

&&

.UPDATE...

Will allow the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory to expire at
03/00Z since winds will begin to decouple and surface speeds
decrease.  There are no other changes to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

Looks like quiet weather can be expected through Friday as a
large upper trough moves across the Plains and into the upper
Mississippi and Ohio Valley states. This trough will push a cold
front south into the forecast area tonight. Behind this front dry
and below normal temperatures are expected through Friday despite
the development of a new surface trough in the northwest to west
flow aloft.

The main feature of interest this forecast continues to be an
upper level storm system that is forecast to track from the Rocky
Mountains into west Texas Friday into Saturday. This mornings
run of the ECMWF model is now more in line with the more
progressive GFS solutions bringing the best chance of precipitation
to the area Friday night, with a quick movement of the system to
the southeast on Saturday. Will continue slight chance to chance
pops Friday night with the potential for light snow across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and the northern Permian Basin with
the approach of the system. Precipitation chances were decreased
to slight chance across mainly west Texas during the day Saturday
due to the more progressive solutions.

Behind this system mainly dry and cool northwesterly flow aloft
regime is forecast to be in place Sunday through next Tuesday.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

A fire danger statement remains in effect the rest of the afternoon
for the Davis Mountains...Marfa Plateau...Big Bend and Lower
Trans Pecos for near critical fire wx conditions.  Rh less than
20 percent possible with 20ft winds of 15 to 20 mph.  Earlier
gusty wind should decrease as it gets closer to evening.  Improved
fire wx conditions expected Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  47  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  45  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  48  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  38  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          23  43  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          18  45  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         25  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  48  22  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

72/12
200
FXUS64 KMAF 022039
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
239 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like quiet weather can be expected through Friday as a
large upper trough moves across the Plains and into the upper
Mississippi and Ohio Valley states. This trough will push a cold
front south into the forecast area tonight. Behind this front dry
and below normal temperatures are expected through Friday despite
the development of a new surface trough in the northwest to west
flow aloft.

The main feature of interest this forecast continues to be an
upper level storm system that is forecast to track from the Rocky
Mountains into west Texas Friday into Saturday. This mornings
run of the ECMWF model is now more in line with the more
progressive GFS solutions bringing the best chance of precipitation
to the area Friday night, with a quick movement of the system to
the southeast on Saturday. Will continue slight chance to chance
pops Friday night with the potential for light snow across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and the northern Permian Basin with
the approach of the system. Precipitation chances were decreased
to slight chance across mainly west Texas during the day Saturday
due to the more progressive solutions.

Behind this system mainly dry and cool northwesterly flow aloft
regime is forecast to be in place Sunday through next Tuesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A fire danger statement remains in effect the rest of the afternoon
for the Davis Mountains... Marfa Plateau... Big Bend... and Lower
Trans Pecos for near critical fire wx conditions.  Rh less than 20
percent possible with 20ft winds of 15 to 20 mph.  Earlier gusty wind
should decrease as it gets closer to evening.  Improved fire wx
conditions expected Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     25  47  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       26  45  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  27  48  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  38  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          23  43  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          18  45  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           24  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         25  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  48  22  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

72/12
661
FXUS64 KMAF 021740
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1140 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with only a few high clouds. Gusty west wind
exceeding 30kts at some TAF sites will continue through the
afternoon and should drop off this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper trough that brought such windy conditions yesterday will
move off to the northeast today. Strong winds will continue in the
Guadalupe Mountains today, and observations out of Mount Locke
show strong winds in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains
so have issued a wind warning for there as well. To be clear,
strong winds will probably not make it to lower elevation sites
like Marfa, Fort Davis, or Alpine though it will still be very
windy nonetheless. Winds will finally diminish this evening.

The departing trough will push a cold front through tonight
shifting winds from the north and dropping lows tonight well into
the 20s for most locations not along the Rio Grande. Highs
tomorrow will be below normal then will increase Thursday and
Friday under westerly upper level flow.

Another upper trough will move into the Pacific northwest and
deepen into a low while dropping into the Four Corners region
Friday. This will bring our next chance for precipitation but how
much and whether it will be rain or snow will depend on the
strength of the approaching low. The GFS/Canadian are stronger and
slower with the low while the ECMWF/DGEX are weaker and faster.
Given the lack of amplification of the upstream ridge it seems
more likely that the low will be weaker and faster so am inclined
to lean towards the ECMWF. This would favor highest PoPs Friday
night into early Saturday with most precip being liquid except
snow in southeast New Mexico and the northern basin. Clearing
skies in the afternoon would allow temps Saturday to warm into
the 40s. However should the GFS verify then temperatures Saturday
could be as much as 10 degrees colder with snow spreading farther
south than currently indicated so this system will bear close
watching the next several days.

Sunday will be warmer but an amplifying upper pattern will bring
another strong cold front into west Texas Sunday night.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Looking at cooler temperatures and breezy conditions today, although
wind speeds will be lighter than what we saw Monday. Minimum
relative humidity values generally near 20 percent across much of
the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions although a few locations in and
near Terrell county may see RH`s near 15 percent. West winds of 20-
30mph can be expected across most areas through mid-day.
Fortunately, winds will begin to decrease through this afternoon
however breezy west winds through this morning will likely continue
to aid any ongoing fires. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for
the potential brief period of near critical fire weather
conditions across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend.
Recovery expected to be fair across the Big Bend region overnight
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  25  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  26  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  32  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  27  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  22  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  23  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  18  45  14 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  24  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  27  48  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
237
FXUS64 KMAF 021137
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
537 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
persist at all terminals. Strong westerly winds near 20-30kt
sustained will persist through this afternoon then wind speeds begin
to diminish this evening. Otherwise, high winds near the mountain
regions will likely result in severe turbulence for low flying light
aircraft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper trough that brought such windy conditions yesterday will
move off to the northeast today. Strong winds will continue in the
Guadalupe Mountains today, and observations out of Mount Locke
show strong winds in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains
so have issued a wind warning for there as well. To be clear,
strong winds will probably not make it to lower elevation sites
like Marfa, Fort Davis, or Alpine though it will still be very
windy nonetheless. Winds will finally diminish this evening.

The departing trough will push a cold front through tonight
shifting winds from the north and dropping lows tonight well into
the 20s for most locations not along the Rio Grande. Highs
tomorrow will be below normal then will increase Thursday and
Friday under westerly upper level flow.

Another upper trough will move into the Pacific northwest and
deepen into a low while dropping into the Four Corners region
Friday. This will bring our next chance for precipitation but how
much and whether it will be rain or snow will depend on the
strength of the approaching low. The GFS/Canadian are stronger and
slower with the low while the ECMWF/DGEX are weaker and faster.
Given the lack of amplification of the upstream ridge it seems
more likely that the low will be weaker and faster so am inclined
to lean towards the ECMWF. This would favor highest PoPs Friday
night into early Saturday with most precip being liquid except
snow in southeast New Mexico and the northern basin. Clearing
skies in the afternoon would allow temps Saturday to warm into
the 40s. However should the GFS verify then temperatures Saturday
could be as much as 10 degrees colder with snow spreading farther
south than currently indicated so this system will bear close
watching the next several days.

Sunday will be warmer but an amplifying upper pattern will bring
another strong cold front into west Texas Sunday night.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Looking at cooler temperatures and breezy conditions today, although
wind speeds will be lighter than what we saw Monday. Minimum
relative humidity values generally near 20 percent across much of
the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions although a few locations in and
near Terrell county may see RH`s near 15 percent. West winds of 20-
30mph can be expected across most areas through mid-day.
Fortunately, winds will begin to decrease through this afternoon
however breezy west winds through this morning will likely continue
to aid any ongoing fires. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for
the potential brief period of near critical fire weather
conditions across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend.
Recovery expected to be fair across the Big Bend region overnight
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  25  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  26  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  32  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  27  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  22  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  23  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  18  45  14 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  24  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  27  48  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

27/10/
985
FXUS64 KMAF 020947
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
347 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper trough that brought such windy conditions yesterday will
move off to the northeast today. Strong winds will continue in the
Guadalupe Mountains today, and observations out of Mount Locke
show strong winds in the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains
so have issued a wind warning for there as well. To be clear,
strong winds will probably not make it to lower elevation sites
like Marfa, Fort Davis, or Alpine though it will still be very
windy nonetheless. Winds will finally diminish this evening.

The departing trough will push a cold front through tonight
shifting winds from the north and dropping lows tonight well into
the 20s for most locations not along the Rio Grande. Highs
tomorrow will be below normal then will increase Thursday and
Friday under westerly upper level flow.

Another upper trough will move into the Pacific northwest and
deepen into a low while dropping into the Four Corners region
Friday. This will bring our next chance for precipitation but how
much and whether it will be rain or snow will depend on the
strength of the approaching low. The GFS/Canadian are stronger and
slower with the low while the ECMWF/DGEX are weaker and faster.
Given the lack of amplification of the upstream ridge it seems
more likely that the low will be weaker and faster so am inclined
to lean towards the ECMWF. This would favor highest PoPs Friday
night into early Saturday with most precip being liquid except
snow in southeast New Mexico and the northern basin. Clearing
skies in the afternoon would allow temps Saturday to warm into
the 40s. However should the GFS verify then temperatures Saturday
could be as much as 10 degrees colder with snow spreading farther
south than currently indicated so this system will bear close
watching the next several days.

Sunday will be warmer but an amplifying upper pattern will bring
another strong cold front into west Texas Sunday night.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Looking at cooler temperatures and breezy conditions today, although
wind speeds will be lighter than what we saw Monday. Minimum
relative humidity values generally near 20 percent across much of
the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions although a few locations in and
near Terrell county may see RH`s near 15 percent. West winds of 20-
30mph can be expected across most areas through mid-day.
Fortunately, winds will begin to decrease through this afternoon
however breezy west winds through this morning will likley continue
to aid any ongoing fires. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for the
potential brief period of near critical fire weather conditions
across portions of the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Recovery
expected to be fair across the Big Bend region overnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  25  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       52  26  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  32  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  55  27  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  22  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          49  23  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  18  45  14 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  24  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           55  27  48  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

27/10
064
FXUS64 KMAF 020352
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
952 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc obs/analysis show post-frontal winds have slackened a bit,
w/vsbys everywhere back to VFR as the dust settles.  However, a
fairly tight gradient remains in place, and gusty winds most
terminals look reasonable for the next 18 hours or so, relaxing
after sunset Tuesday.  A few high clouds will move thru the region
as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 950 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

UPDATE...

Issued update to expire the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning
across areas except the Guadalupe Mountains.

DISCUSSION...

Latest observations have shown that winds have decreased below
advisory and warning criteria in all places except the Guadalupe
Mountains so have allowed the advisories and warnings in these
areas to expire. Due to the decreasing winds, the Blowing Dust
Advisory has also been allowed to expire. Conditions are expected
to remain below advisory and warning criteria in these areas
through the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CST Monday...another spring-like day
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico replete with above
normal temps...fire wx concerns...and of course breezy/windy
conditions.

Satl imagery is indc a strong mid/upper level trof moving across
Northern New Mexico. A tightening sfc pressure gradient will
continue...if not increase the windy conditions across the area.
Latest RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis) Data is indc strong
wind gusts over the western half of the CWA...edging eastward.
Therefore...will not make any changes to the ongoing Wind and Dust
Products. Even though the H7 winds are fcst to decrease on Tuesday
tight sfc gradients will keep the winds elevated over the
Guadalupe Mtns...so have left the current High Wind Warning over
the Guadalupe Mtns for Tuesday as is.

A Pacific Cold front (which brought a quick dusting of snow to El
Paso) will move across the area tonight. Latest high resolution
fcst keep the CWA dry. Temps on Tuesday will be several degrees
below normal. As the mid/upper level trough lifts northeast a
modified Arctic front will drop south thru the Southern Plains and
bring below normal temps through the end of the week with
overnight lows in the 20s...and even a few upper teens in Northern
Lea County.

Weak shortwave ridging will move over the Central/Southern Plains
in response to a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California. As the trough moves east it will split with
the southern piece of energy developing a cutoff low over the
Southern Rockies by Friday evening...and over West Texas Saturday
morning. Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of
precipitation over the CWA Friday night/Saturday morning. It is
still too early to determine if the precip will be
snow...rain...or a mix but it does bear watching. Northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the upper low will bring dry weather along
with moderating temps on Sunday.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions are developing
across the Big Bend, the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin
this mid Monday afternoon. Would expect the northeast Permian
Basin to get in on this as well shortly for the remainder of this
afternoon as drier air and strong westerly winds surge into that
area quickly. Further west across southeast New Mexico, the
western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor, critical fire weather conditions are not
occurring and not expected despite strong winds due to cooler air
keeping rh/s above 15 percent the remainder of the afternoon.
Conditions should improve by early evening across the Red Flag
Warning area in west Texas as winds slacken some and nocturnal
cooling takes place with cooler air surging east behind a cold
front.

Although winds will slacken overnight they will remain elevated and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair rh recovery is expected
areawide. It will be breezy to windy in many areas again Tuesday,
but not anywhere as high as today, with isolated locations of the
Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos possibly ending up with near
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  58  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  53  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  66  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  55  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  43  22  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  50  24  44 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          26  50  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  55  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  57  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  57  25  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/80/44
172
FXUS64 KMAF 020350
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
950 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued update to expire the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning
across areas except the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest observations have shown that winds have decreased below
advisory and warning criteria in all places except the Guadalupe
Mountains so have allowed the advisories and warnings in these
areas to expire. Due to the decreasing winds, the Blowing Dust
Advisory has also been allowed to expire. Conditions are expected
to remain below advisory and warning criteria in these areas
through the night.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CST Monday...another spring-like day
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico replete with above
normal temps...fire wx concerns...and of course breezy/windy
conditions.

Satl imagery is indc a strong mid/upper level trof moving across
Northern New Mexico. A tightening sfc pressure gradient will
continue...if not increase the windy conditions across the area.
Latest RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis) Data is indc strong
wind gusts over the western half of the CWA...edging eastward.
Therefore...will not make any changes to the ongoing Wind and Dust
Products. Even though the H7 winds are fcst to decrease on Tuesday
tight sfc gradients will keep the winds elevated over the
Guadalupe Mtns...so have left the current High Wind Warning over
the Guadalupe Mtns for Tuesday as is.

A Pacific Cold front (which brought a quick dusting of snow to El
Paso) will move across the area tonight. Latest high resolution
fcst keep the CWA dry. Temps on Tuesday will be several degrees
below normal. As the mid/upper level trough lifts northeast a
modified Arctic front will drop south thru the Southern Plains and
bring below normal temps through the end of the week with
overnight lows in the 20s...and even a few upper teens in Northern
Lea County.

Weak shortwave ridging will move over the Central/Southern Plains
in response to a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California. As the trough moves east it will split with
the southern piece of energy developing a cutoff low over the
Southern Rockies by Friday evening...and over West Texas Saturday
morning. Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of
precipitation over the CWA Friday night/Saturday morning. It is
still too early to determine if the precip will be
snow...rain...or a mix but it does bear watching. Northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the upper low will bring dry weather along
with moderating temps on Sunday.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions are developing
across the Big Bend, the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin
this mid Monday afternoon. Would expect the northeast Permian
Basin to get in on this as well shortly for the remainder of this
afternoon as drier air and strong westerly winds surge into that
area quickly. Further west across southeast New Mexico, the
western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor, critical fire weather conditions are not
occurring and not expected despite strong winds due to cooler air
keeping rh/s above 15 percent the remainder of the afternoon.
Conditions should improve by early evening across the Red Flag
Warning area in west Texas as winds slacken some and nocturnal
cooling takes place with cooler air surging east behind a cold
front.

Although winds will slacken overnight they will remain elevated and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair rh recovery is expected
areawide. It will be breezy to windy in many areas again Tuesday,
but not anywhere as high as today, with isolated locations of the
Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos possibly ending up with near
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  58  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  53  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  66  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  55  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  43  22  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  50  24  44 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          26  50  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  55  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  57  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  57  25  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99
618
FXUS64 KMAF 012254
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
454 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Latest sfc obs show Pac front just went thru KMAF, and approaching
KFST. Expect IFR/MVFR visibilities to improve to VFR over the next
couple of hours as post-frontal winds subside slightly. However,
gusty post-frontal conditions will continue next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CST Monday...another spring-like day
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico replete with above
normal temps...fire wx concerns...and of course breezy/windy
conditions.

Satl imagery is indc a strong mid/upper level trof moving across
Northern New Mexico. A tightening sfc pressure gradient will
continue...if not increase the windy conditions across the area.
Latest RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis) Data is indc strong
wind gusts over the western half of the CWA...edging eastward.
Therefore...will not make any changes to the ongoing Wind and Dust
Products. Even though the H7 winds are fcst to decrease on Tuesday
tight sfc gradients will keep the winds elevated over the
Guadalupe Mtns...so have left the current High Wind Warning over
the Guadalupe Mtns for Tuesday as is.

A Pacific Cold front (which brought a quick dusting of snow to El
Paso) will move across the area tonight. Latest high resolution
fcst keep the CWA dry. Temps on Tuesday will be several degrees
below normal. As the mid/upper level trough lifts northeast a
modified Arctic front will drop south thru the Southern Plains and
bring below normal temps through the end of the week with
overnight lows in the 20s...and even a few upper teens in Northern
Lea County.

Weak shortwave ridging will move over the Central/Southern Plains
in response to a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California. As the trough moves east it will split with
the southern piece of energy developing a cutoff low over the
Southern Rockies by Friday evening...and over West Texas Saturday
morning. Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of
precipitation over the CWA Friday night/Saturday morning. It is
still too early to determine if the precip will be
snow...rain...or a mix but it does bear watching. Northwest flow
aloft in the wake of the upper low will bring dry weather along
with moderating temps on Sunday.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions are developing
across the Big Bend, the Trans Pecos and southern Permian Basin
this mid Monday afternoon. Would expect the northeast Permian
Basin to get in on this as well shortly for the remainder of this
afternoon as drier air and strong westerly winds surge into that
area quickly. Further west across southeast New Mexico, the
western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor, critical fire weather conditions are not
occurring and not expected despite strong winds due to cooler air
keeping rh/s above 15 percent the remainder of the afternoon.
Conditions should improve by early evening across the Red Flag
Warning area in west Texas as winds slacken some and nocturnal
cooling takes place with cooler air surging east behind a cold
front.

Although winds will slacken overnight they will remain elevated and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair rh recovery is expected
areawide. It will be breezy to windy in many areas again Tuesday,
but not anywhere as high as today, with isolated locations of the
Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos possibly ending up with near
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  58  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  53  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  66  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  38  55  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 26  43  22  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          31  50  24  44 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          26  50  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  55  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  57  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  57  25  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Central
     Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Howard-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Dawson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for Andrews-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

44/80/44

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