Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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986
FXUS64 KMAF 092307
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014/

Very dry and warm westerly flow aloft regime will prevail through
Saturday. Much above normal temperatures are expected due to a
surface lee trough with an associated low level thermal ridge and
downslope flow. Slight cooling is anticipated Friday across
northern sections due to a weak cold front invading but even their
temperatures are still expected to be well above normal. The main
forecast challenge this forecast package continues to be this
weekend. A southern stream system is expected to approach and pass
by during this time period. The last couple of runs of the GFS
model have now fallen in line with the quicker and drier ECMWF,
CMC, and NOGAPS model. Will continue the dry forecast this weekend
and continue to monitor. Breezy conditions look possible Sunday
with cooler and dry weather expected behind this system early next
week with below normal temperatures.

FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry regime is in place thru Friday and as temperatures
continue to trend up the dry unstable state continues to be
re-enforced. Elevated fire wx does exit today in parts of the ern PB
and in the favored areas of the GDP Mtns. RH recovery will be poor
again tonight setting the stage for a rapid decrease in RH Thursday.
Mixed layer wind are definitely stronger on the GFS/NAM12 and the
fire weather watch for GDP Mtns looks good. More of the same Friday
warm/dry/unstable and there will be at least be local fire wx
concerns in the GDP Mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  92  54  91  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  93  57  90  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                46  93  49  88  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  92  59  91  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  96  56  94  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  86  60  80  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   50  90  49  89  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   36  84  44  81  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  93  58  94  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  92  58  91  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    50  97  51  95  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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