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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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Product Version: 2013-05-21 11:31:30 2013-05-21 10:04:33 2013-05-21 05:35:23 2013-05-21 03:10:25 2013-05-20 22:52:50 2013-05-20 20:36:27 2013-05-20 17:46:45 2013-05-20 11:27:30 2013-05-20 08:46:29 2013-05-20 04:47:58 2013-05-20 01:17:19 2013-05-19 22:55:06 2013-05-19 19:31:43 2013-05-19 17:41:40 2013-05-19 11:17:15 2013-05-19 08:20:02 2013-05-19 05:32:59 2013-05-18 22:46:41 2013-05-18 19:47:26 2013-05-18 17:13:04 2013-05-18 11:23:36 2013-05-18 08:59:52 2013-05-18 05:30:29 2013-05-17 22:47:42 2013-05-17 19:30:23 2013-05-17 17:29:00 2013-05-17 11:16:57 2013-05-17 09:26:40 2013-05-17 05:19:42 2013-05-16 23:10:32 2013-05-16 19:45:39 2013-05-16 17:38:43 2013-05-16 11:25:05 2013-05-16 09:43:33 2013-05-16 05:17:52 2013-05-15 23:12:21 2013-05-15 19:34:12 2013-05-15 16:12:08 2013-05-15 11:27:46 2013-05-15 09:37:33 2013-05-15 05:34:19 2013-05-14 23:22:37 2013-05-14 19:30:44 2013-05-14 17:53:00 ALL   

373
FXUS64 KMAF 211131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN CONTINUING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...

WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY.  MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES.  COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP.  MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.  BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS.  SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES.  MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.

FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE.  HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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