Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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452
FXUS64 KMAF 091735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1135 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions have been slow to lift today. Despite
satellite showing an expansive area of clouds across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico, model data insists we will clear out
this afternoon so have placed VFR in the TAFs around 20Z though
the confidence in this timing is shaky at best. We could see a
return of MVFR/IFR conditions tonight but for now will only
include in the HOB/INK/PEQ TAFs.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 917 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

UPDATE...
Expiration of Freeze Warning.

DISCUSSION...
The Freeze Warning has expired... updated zones to remove
headline. Forecasted highs still look on track... no other
changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

Much quieter conditions are ahead for West Texas and SE NM this
weekend into much of next week. We are seeing widespread freezing
temperatures this morning all the way to the Rio Grande. Along with
this, freezing fog continues along the front range of the higher
terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains south to Alpine. The fog will
likely stick around through the morning until we see a bit of
mixing. Will continue the Hard Freeze Warning through the morning
for southern locations as they continue to see their first freeze of
season. This will be the last freeze product issued this season as
the majority of our area has now seen a hard freeze. Low clouds will
begin to clear late this morning with a good bit of sun expected by
afternoon. Cold air will be slow to move out, but high temperatures
should rebound into the 40`s today. A much more substantial warm-up
is likely this weekend as mid level flow becomes more zonal and
surface winds veer to the southwest. Highs could reach the 70`s
across much of the area Sunday. A weak front will slide through
Monday with slightly cooler, but still above normal temperatures.

A large scale upper trough will develop over southern Canada next
week with very cold, Arctic air settling in over the Northern
Plains. A piece of this airmass will break off and head south,
reaching our area sometime Wednesday. Models are still in
disagreement regarding and how cold the airmass will be, but we
will remain dry through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  31  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  26  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  31  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  34  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  36  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          41  26  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  26  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  30  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  31  56  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           43  27  61  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10