488
FXUS64 KMAF 250540
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SE NM THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CONVECTION IS OVER FOR
TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF TSRA AT CNM. ALREADY SEE
PATCHES OF STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN... THESE
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES BY SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
A COOL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AIDED BY LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN EAST WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER
THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT SO MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON WHERE TS
WILL DEVELOP. CAPES WILL BE 1-2KJ/KG BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 15-25KTS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH LOW SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS STRONG
WINDS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BIG BEND
TONIGHT PERHAPS EXTENDING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A PERSISTENT WEST COAST TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW KEEPING THE DRYLINE PULLED BACK AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL THEN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY THE WEST COAST TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ACTIVATING THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED...SO WILL GO WITH A
WEAKER SOLUTION AND KEEP THE POPS IN THE EAST FOR NOW. A DEEPER
ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTION MAY BRING CONVECTION FURTHER WEST INTO
SE NM AND THE BIG BEND.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
